Welcome to 2010: The Year of the Plug-In Car. Here's our take on
where we are as we enter this thrilling time. Plus some new
opportunities and ways to get involved, two important events in
Washington, DC in the next four weeks, and our thanks to many of the
people who helped us come so far. We encourage you to forward see
this and other CalCars-News messages as resources you can forward.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

WE'VE BEEN WORKING TO GET TO THIS MOMENT. For CalCars, it's been
eight years. Some people we know have been on a
two-to-four-decade-long quest. Soon we'll be driving safe,
affordable, highway-capable plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles
from the world's major carmakers and some brash startups. The first
cars will arrive in selected markets this year. Next year, people in
many states, provinces and countries will finally be able to simply
go into dealer showrooms and buy them. Some skeptics, engulfed by the
reality of industry progress, now fall back to ask, "Will any but the
early adopters buy them?" Of course, it's too soon to tell. We expect
that plug-ins' comparative advantages and social benefits combined
with initial subsidies will eventually lead to their full
competitiveness on features and price, broad market penetration, and
eventual dominance.

PLUG-INS COME TO CALIFORNIA: This year, a family like ours, in the
early-adopter state of CA, has the happy prospect of replacing our
Toyota Prius aftermarket PHEV conversion with a new PHEV, such as the
Chevy Volt (or the pricier Fisker Karma). For local driving, we'll
likely replace our Toyota Camry HEV with a 100-mile-range EV such as
the Nissan LEAF or CODA sedan. CalCars Tech Lead Ron Gremban hopes to
follow a similar path. For details on these long-awaited debuts, see
CalCars' PHEV listing at http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html and
Plug In America's broader tracker at
http://www.pluginamerica.org/plug-in-vehicle-tracker.html .

CARMAKERS START THEIR MARKETING EFFORTS: The auto industry's giant
marketing machines will help immeasurably in putting plug-in cars as
drivers' next choice. Already, it's often no longer necessary to
explain "plug-in hybrid" to most people. Instead we ask, "Have you've
seen ads for the Chevy Volt?" Then we say "That's a PHEV." Then, if
they want, we explain how they work and their benefits! We invite you
to watch a poetic, inspiring ode to the EV, "Renault. Drive the
Change." -- called by Plug In America's Paul Scott "the first ad of
what will become a steadily growing genre." It's just two minutes at
http://evsandenergy.blogspot.com/2010/01/first-of-new-wave-in-ev-adverts.html
or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRl_tbNfw3k .

CALCARS MEETS INITIAL GOALS: On October 21, in Detroit, we "declared
victory" on PHEVs -- see
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1078.html or listen at
http://www.calcars.org/audio-video.html#audiotag . Of course, we
still have lots to do to ensure this commercialization succeeds. A
vast informal network of local, regional and national coalitions
working with manufacturing, supplier and infrastructure companies has
emerged. They and we will do our parts.

WE STILL HAVE TO COMBAT MISINFORMATION. In a world where stray
comments gain instant credibility and mindshare, we see periodic
campaigns and isolated efforts to raise questions about vehicle
electrification. We still encounter those who think it's
business-as-usual for fossil fuels while we wait for some "technology
breakthroughs" or vast infrastructure. In fact, plug-ins, built with
today's batteries, charging mainly at home at night, can arrive as
fast as carmakers can build them. We still hear from those who,
intentionally or not, mistakenly position the strategy to "displace
petroleum with electricity" as a COMPETITOR instead of a COMPLEMENT
to essential efforts to conserve by improving conventional vehicles'
efficiency and reducing their use. We haven't heard the last from
advocates who propose vast expansions of liquid/gaseous fuels --
including natural gas, biofuels or hydrogen fuel cells -- as
alternatives rather than supplements to electricity.

And we've barely encountered the first volleys from fossil fuel
suppliers. Taken together, these companies are by far the world's
most powerful industry. They're also the most destructive and deadly,
factoring in all the consequences of extraction, production,
transportation and combustion, plus the impact on every nation's
public and private-sector integrity, economy, and national security.
With so many stakeholders waiting for any hiccup, false start or
overstatement, we all need to be ready to defend our strategy, whose
strengths are predicated on "solutions good enough to get started," a
transformed cleantech economy, and electricity's fundamental
advantages: "cleaner, cheaper, and domestic."

BUT NEW VEHICLES CAN'T GET US THERE QUICKLY ENOUGH! We're starting to
see a growing recognition that the world needs to adopt a
TRANSPORTATION EQUIVALENT to the established retrofit approach that's
such a no-brainer for buildings. Even the most optimistic scenarios
show only tens of millions of new plug-in vehicles globally in the
next 10-20 years -- tiny fraction of the more than one billion
vehicles we'll soon have. We see people beginning to recognize that
large vehicles in particular stay on the road for decades, so it
makes sense to "fix" gas guzzlers so they can plug in. Along with
other obvious low-hanging fruit like conservation steps and
installing low-cost black-carbon filters on diesel engines, these are
essential and realistic pathways. These approaches can advance
reduced fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions by a precious
decade, while creating tens of thousands of green jobs and
accelerating the expansion of the supply chain needed for the
long-term electrification of transportation.

CALCARS' NEW MISSION: While continuing to promote "Successful
Commercialization of PHEVS ASAP," CalCars' activities increasingly
focus on recruiting more advocates to the "Big Fix" -- our campaign
to convert a substantial portion of the vehicles already on the road
to EVs or PHEVs. We still encounter some wariness about the specific
technologies and expected costs to convert internal combustion
vehicles. This will change in three ways, just as it did in 2004-2006
for PHEVs: We'll get more convincing and compelling prototypes that
show what's possible. We'll see business models that work in high
volumes. And we'll help new coalitions emerge.

We can't do it ourselves. So we continue to recruit for a broad
campaign whose partners we'll soon announce. Organizations and
high-profile individuals can endorse it now -- see
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-bigfix-endorse.pdf .

DO YOU KNOW THAT GO-GETTER WHO WANTS TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
Twenty-five years ago, Steve Jobs famously recruited Pepsi executive
John Sculley to Apple by asking, "Do you want to sell sugar water all
your life or do you want a chance to change the world?" Recently, the
charismatic Shai Agassi built his vision for an EV solution at Better
Place. Similarly, we seek a well-healed, well-connected serial
entrepreneur with a background in autos, technology, or finance, to
accelerate the efforts of the startups gaining traction in the
gas-guzzler conversion space (many listed at
http://www.calcars.org/conversions.html and profiled at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-beyond-new-plug-ins.pdf ) and other
companies yet to appear. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for
that candidate to hit the ground running and transform today's
fledgling efforts into a profitable global industry whose conversion
designers, integrators, component suppliers, and installers will
offer green jobs, energy savings, operating cost reductions, and
environmental and energy security benefits.

CHANGES IN TODAY'S CONVERSION MINI-INDUSTRY: The small hybrid-to-PHEV
conversion companies that helped so much to increase PHEVs'
visibility and get them in the hands of utilities, government testing
labs and committed evangelizers can now set themselves new goals.
They can lower their selling prices via scale, gain government
approvals for their designs, and add warranties to position them to
sell to a million-plus hybrid car owners. By partnering with
suppliers, larger integration companies, and ultimately major
automakers, they can expand to the far larger market of drivers
looking to fix their non-hybrid internal combustion vehicles.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY EVENTS: We'll be spending two weeks at the end of
the month on the East Coast. In addition to some private events and
meetings in Boston and New York to promote the Big Fix, we'll first
be attending the Electric Drive Transportation's broad industry
Conference and Annual Meeting, January 26-28, held in conjunction
with the Washington DC Auto Show. See the full program and sign up at
http://electricdrive.org .

The following week, again in DC, I'm speaking on gas-guzzler
conversions at the Renewable Energy Technology Conference &
Exhibition http://www.retech2010.com/ organized by the American
Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). RETECH2010 includes 250 leaders
from industry and the administration, including presentations by key
officials in the Department of Energy, to over 5,000 attendees. We're
on the "Advanced Vehicles and Batteries" panel
http://www.retech2010.com/business-conference#B7 .

We encourage you to attend both events in DC. We'll soon update the
CalCars Events page with these and other events -- including
http://www.plugin2010.com July 26-29 in San Jose, CA. We'll also be
advancing our Big Fix agenda at the annual TED Conference in early
February in Long Beach, CA.

CALCARS AS AN ORGANIZATION: Our sustained effort for over eight years
by a small core group with growing concentric rings of advisors,
supporters and proponents has been a stunning success. CalCars-News
is currently received directly by over 7,000 subscribers in the auto
industry, government, and advocacy communities, and our comments are
amplified frequently by online, broadcast and print media. Yet just
as our original goals are being realized and we see growing
receptiveness to our new objectives, we lack the resources we need to
do more. At one peak time, in 2006-2008, we gained two years of
substantial support from Google.org. Over the years, we've received
modest contributions from individuals, other foundations, and a few
companies and utilities. But we've not received ANY federal or state
funds -- or funding from the venture capital community or the newly
funded startups that have benefited from our work. At the moment,
we're more "bare-bones" than we've ever been, essentially running on
fumes, cutting back on events where our costs aren't covered. While
this is personally difficult, especially for me and Ron (full-time
since 2001 and 2004 respectively), both of us are thankful to have
had the opportunity to engage in the most satisfying, effective, and
consequential work in our lives.

SUPPORT CALCARS: Privately we get frequent encouragement and praise
from individuals who say they are stretched to the limit and wish
they could support our efforts. (If your own financial position
allows, we could really use your tax-deductible contributions (even
in the $10-$100 range) at http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html .

VOLUNTEER AT CALCARS: Carol DiBenedetto was our able director of
projects and grantwriter in 2008-09, but we can't pay her again until
we raise money (!!) So we need a fundraising volunteer. We also
urgently need an able volunteer to position us in multiple social
networking channels. If you're interested in either of these or other
positions at http://www.calcars.org/jobs.html, please send an email
that includes the job title in the subject line, plus a thoughtful
cover letter, followed by a pasted copy of your resume, to jobs (at)
calcars.org. NO ATTACHMENTS, PLEASE, though URLs linking to more
information are fine.

THANKS AS ALWAYS FOR SPREADING THE WORD -- AND THANKS TO SOME
STANDOUTS: Ron and I want to thank some people in particular. Because
of their jobs at companies or in government or the media -- or their
temperaments -- many of our supporters must remain anonymous. And we
can't begin to list the many dozens more from
http://www.calcars.org/partners.html -- especially at utility, auto,
and conversion companies.

That said, thanks, alphabetically, to webmaster Michael Bender,
databaser Brad Beltane, senior advisors Randy Reisinger and Jim Hurd,
and to key advisors, promoters and co-thinkers including Jeff
Anderson, Frank Babbitt, Carl Berg, Jim Bernard, Chris Baldwin,
Lester Brown, Adam Browning, Pat Cadam, Carl Chow, Sam Cohen, Carolyn
Coquillette, Al Cormier, Doug Crowder, John Davi, Robbie Diamond,
Carol DiBenedetto, Carla Din, Leslie Dorosin, Roger Duncan, Bob
Epstein, Rich Feldman, David Alan Foster, Andy Frank, Tom Gage, Phil
Glatz, Jay Golden, KC Golden, Richard Goodman, Mike Granoff, Andy
Grove, Carl Guardino, James Hansen, Hal Harvey, Denis Hayes, David
Hearst, Bill Holmberg, Russell Hancock, Jay Inslee, Ron
Johnson-Rodriguez, Wade Jansen, Marguerite Jones, Daniel Kammen,
David Kaplan, Willett Kempton, Anne Korin, Andrew Lawton, Craig
Lewis, Gal Luft, Nick Magel, Steve Marshall, Gil Masters, Patrick
Mazza, Tom McCalmont, William McDonough, Ron Minsk, Dave Modisette,
David Morris, Ben Ovshinsky, Chris Paine, Sunil Paul, Charlotte Pera,
Wylie Plummer, Eric Powers, Joe Romm, Nick Rothman, Margaret Sanders,
Richard Schorske, Joel Serface, Dave Severns, Gail Slocum, Peter
Skinner, Sass Somekh, Chris Sorensen, Lee Stein, Laura Stuchinsky,
David Taggart, Matt Taylor, Sven Thesen, Ling Thio, Laney Thornton,
Jasna Tomic, David Turock, Tom Turrentine, Garth Ware, Jon
Wellinghoff, Jonas Weil, Nadine Weil, Greg Willey, John Wilner, Anne
Woods, Jane Woodward, James Woolsey, Andrew Zeif. Thanks to our
fiscal sponsor, INTERNATIONAL HUMANITIES CENTER: Dave DelGrosso, Dave
Sanders, Steve Sugarman.

FREQUENTLY PARTNERING ORGANIZATIONS: Thanks to these and many others
at: ELECTRIC AUTO ASSOCIATION: Jerry Asher, Will Beckett, Ron Freund,
Arthur Keller, Steven Lough, Jerry Pohorsky, Robert Seldon, Ed
Thorpe. FRIENDS OF THE EARTH/BLUEWATER NETWORK: Brent Blackwelder,
Norman Dean, Danielle Fugere, Russell Long, Sara Schedler. GOOGLE &
GOOGLE.ORG: Robyn Beavers, Dave Bercovich, Adam Borelli, Larry
Brilliant, Sergey Brin, Alec Brooks, Aimee Christensen, Greg Miller,
Kirsten Olsen, Larry Page, Alec Proudfoot, Siobhan Quinn, Dan
Reicher, Rolf Schreiber, Eric Schmidt, Linda Segre, Adam Smith, Karen
Padham Taylor, Bill Weihl. PLUG IN AMERICA: Sherry Boschert, Dan
Davids, Jay Friedland, Marc Geller, Linda Nicholes, Alexandra Paul,
Zan Dubin Scott, Paul Scott, Chelsea Sexton, Jeanne Trombly.
RAINFOREST ACTION NETWORK: Mike Brune, Sarah Connolly, Jodie van
Horn, Jennifer Krill, Nile Malloy. INTERNATIONALLY: Feng An, Ulf
Bossel, Vincent Dussault, Jacques Marlot, Matt Mathews, Miyuki Merry,
Teitur Torkelsson, Pedro Macanas Valverde, Akiko Yoshimoto.
PERSONALLY: for support and advice, we thank Tom Driscoll, Nancy
Frishberg, Deborah Kaufman, Josh Kramer, Rochelle Lefkowitz, Lynn
McAllister, Alan Snitow, Bob Weber. And we apologize for anyone we've
overlooked!

COMING SOON FROM CALCARS-NEWS: We're working on a number of postings
about: the Electrification Coalition report; promising legislation
for the postal service; analysis on the benefits of gas-guzzler
retrofits; and more specifics on the National Academy of Sciences
report, and strategies to advance the Big Fix campaign. If in the
flurry of holiday emails, you missed our last postings, you can go
back to them at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html . And follow
the many online publications doing such a great job of chronicling
the daily developments in the plug-in world at
http://www.calcars.org/partners.html#opb . Together we can make this
a memorable year!

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

INTRODUCTION: For your edification this long weekend: In this posting, we return
to address in greater detail the faulty assumptions underlying the conclusion by
the National Research Council's (NRC) fuel cell analyst team that it would be a
mistake to commit to plug-in vehicles because battery costs will remain high for
over a decade. This report has gained wide attention. And on the same day that
GM opened its new Michigan battery plant, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
released a study saying it would take decades for plug-ins to become competitive
without subsidies. We believe BOTH reports are mistaken and are already being
eclipsed by industry developments. Real-world information is already a step
ahead of their assumptions. Battery and auto manufacturers would not be spending
tens of billions of dollars on factories to support over a dozen new plug-in
vehicle models unless they saw a long-term path to low-cost, competitive
components. We back this up below with citations from multiple sources --
including just-in news of the first response from a National Lab to the NRC
report. We hope they will deter these reports' unquestioned acceptance by
journalists, analysts and legislators. Read to the end and you'll find our
explanation of how these studies affect the US Department of Energy's future
plans. And you'll see our call to some missing voices -- battery manufacturers
and automakers besides GM and Nissan -- to release some vital proprietary
information. Multiple constituencies need the full story to understand battery
economics and help shape public and private strategies. This is all-important as
priorities are being set in Washington and across the globe.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

REMINDER ON OUR INITIAL RESPONSES: This posting goes beyond our December
"Plug-In Community Needs to Respond to Outdated/Biased NAS Report" on the
National Academy of Sciences/NRC document. (See other comments on our posting at
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/12/22/squaring-off-again-plug-in-advocates-respon\
d-to-anti-phev-repo/ and
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/12/plug-in-backers-say-recent-slow\
-growth-phev-report-has-hydrogen-bias.html .) And in three postings last April
(all found at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html ) we and others
criticized BCG's report for the President's Automotive Task Force.

NRC CRITICISMS BOILED DOWN: Here we focus on just the central organizing
assumption they presume will dramatically limit EV and PHEV acceptance through
the next decade: high battery costs. Most notably, the reports say today's PHEV
battery packs can cost well over $1,000/kilowatt-hour. They see it taking 10
years for packs to drop from $1,000+ to the $400/kwh necessary to make
unsubsidized EVs and PHEVs competitive. Even by 2030, the NRC says the battery
premium for a Volt-like PHEV with a 40-mile range would still be over $10,000.
Anticipating that long before then, governments will stop providing the
$5-$10,000 subsidies necessary to sell cars with $15-$20,00 packs, they conclude
only a "battery breakthrough" or a quintupling of oil prices will motivate
consumers to buy plug-ins.

SHORTCOMINGS AND MISINTERPRETATIONS OF THEIR APPROACH: They limit expected price
reductions to the low rate expected for already-high-volume and already-cheap
laptop and mobile phone battery cells. They don't evaluate PHEVs with 10 or 20
mile ranges, which have much smaller batteries and very different economics than
PHEV-40s and all-electric vehicles. They don't count the cost savings from an
all-electric vehicle not including an internal combustion engine. And they don't
factor in the likelihood of an eventual cost to emit carbon - already an
assumption in much corporate long-range planning. Finally -- and fundamentally
-- they don't follow standard research procedures used in similar studies to
document their cost assumptions, look at cost sensitivities or conduct a
bottoms-up cost model. Add in all these flaws and ignore the results and reports
below, and we can see why they forecast EV and PHEV sales totaling a few million
by 2020 -- instead of the tens of millions that automakers already plan to build
and expect drivers to buy.

CLOSELY-HELD INFORMATION: It's hard to get battery pack pricing data. Each
battery manufacturer and automaker sees its costs as key to its competitiveness.
With some batteries selling at dramatically high retail prices, manufacturer
prefer to limit access to pricing forecasts for cells or packs in large volumes
to potential automotive customers. And since automotive batteries are not yet
mature products, price and performance continually evolve. With such competitive
pressures and rapid-fire changes, researchers and even governments are often
left with incomplete, inconsistent, out-of-date, or even erroneous price data.

LIMITED DISTRIBUTION EVEN OF PUBLIC INFORMATION: It's frustrating that many
useful insights are trapped behind firewalls that some conference organizers
short-sightedly enforce. They often limit distribution of presentations to those
who paid to attend their conferences. (We've often suggested they experiment to
see if they gain more attendees next time and achieve their broad goals more by
unlocking their gates.) Fortunately we have been able to glean much from reports
some authors choose to post online and from media reports.

MULTIPLE SOURCES FOR MORE REALITY-BASED DATA: Below, we've gathered information
from primary sources -- two automakers, and no battery manufacturers -- and
secondary sources including electric utility organizations, independent advocacy
groups, and academic research cited or commissioned by government agencies. We
cover the implications of the information we have gathered, then challenge
industry players, including battery manufacturers, to release some of their
proprietary pricing data. They will ultimately benefit through more support for
plug-in vehicle incentives, building demand, and thereby expanding the
marketplace for all players. We start with extracts from some reports that
directly rebut the NRC:

AUTOMAKERS: GM TO AUTOBLOG GREEN: BATTERIES ALREADY CHEAPER THAN REPORTS'
FORECASTS: "There do appear to be some holes in the new [NRC] study. For
example, the study cites a current cost of $1,000-1,200 per kWh for automotive
lithium ion batteries. That figure may be as much double the actual cost if
General Motors is to be believed. When we spoke with Denise Grey and Jon
Lauckner from GM this week they both hinted that the Volt battery was actually
in the $500-600/kWh range now and they expect this number to drop."
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/01/08/study-battery-electric-vehicles-unlikely-to\
-be-cost-competitive/ . "Grey tells [AutoBlogGreen] GM is working closely with
suppliers to cost optimize all of the pack's components and hopes to hit the US
Advanced Battery Consortium target of $300/kWh by 2015."
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/01/07/general-motors-builds-first-volt-battery-pa\
ck-on-production-line/ . (Note: these figures and those below refer to actual
available energy -- 8 kwh, not 16 kwh, in the case of the Volt.)

GM TO CNN: NRC'S BLOATED ESTIMATES: "GM spokesman Rob Peterson called the NRC's
estimates of battery cost 'bloated,' saying the Volt's battery would cost much
less than that. Battery costs will also come down quickly, he said. 'Our
starting point, which already costs much less than they estimate, is just the
first step,' he said."
http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/15/autos/nrc_plug-in_hybrid_report/

AUTOMAKERS: NISSAN/RENAULT CEO CARLOS GHOSN BETS HEAVILY ON PLUG-INS: "Ghosn is
so sure the vision will work that he's building factories to assemble 500,000
EVs a year -- 10 times more units than General Motors Co. is planning to make of
its Volt hybrid." And (talking about battery cell, not pack costs): "[Deutsche
Bank AG analyst in New York Rod Lache] predicts that high-volume manufacturing
will cut battery costs -- now $650 per kilowatt-hour -- in half by 2020. Ghosn
says costs will fall faster. He's working on batteries with twice the range of
Leaf's and has teamed up with Sumitomo Corp. to sell used batteries that can no
longer withstand automotive requirements but can store power for utilities.
[thereby effectively bringing down battery prices for the consumer]" From a long
and comprehensive review by Bloomberg reporters John Lippert, Kae Inoue and
Laurence Frost
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJEVrzt2t.8o&pos=11 . And as
Nissan arranges for billions of dollars in financing to lease its batteries for
EVs, it has worked with financiers whose due diligence looks at proprietary
cost, reliability, and longevity data unavailable even to the NRC and BCG. The
total Nissan-Renault investment is over $6 billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601090&sid=a0vDcOKdXYoM .

ARGONNE NATIONAL LAB EXPLAINS HOW SCALE AFFECTS BATTERY COSTS: In what looks
like the most detailed analysis to date, "Factors Determining the Manufacturing
Costs of Lithium- Ion Batteries for PHEVs," Paul A. Nelson and Danilo J. Santini
from Argonne National Laboratory and James Barnes, battery expert at the US
Department of Energy, in May 2009 project the mass production costs to the
vehicle manufacturer at $255/kwh for a PHEV-20 and $210/kwh for a PHEV 40 (table
p.6). The authors go on the say, "The cost estimates in this study assume a
stable rate of pack manufacture at a high rate of 100,000 packs/yrIf the plants
were designed for [only] 10,000 battery packs per year, a reasonable production
level for the first year for both a new battery pack design and a new vehicle,
then the unit costs for the batteries would be approximately 60 to 80% higher.
If, in addition, the plants were designed to be expanded for future production
or the plant equipment was amortized over a shorter period to allow for the
uncertainty of future orders (discontinuous production), the unit battery prices
would be even higher. Thus, the low production rates anticipated for initial
production of the batteries creates serious per-vehicle battery cost barriers
that must be subsidized either by vehicle manufacturers or governments in order
to achieve a viable long-term PHEV battery market." (p.9) The paper was
delivered at EVS-24, May 2009 in Norway; it's found at
http://www.cars21.com/files/papers/Nelson-Santini-Barnes-paper.pdf

(Along the same lines, but not from the Argonne studies: The NRC report
indicated that Li-ion batteries are already in high volume production for laptop
computers and cell phones, so their costs are unlikely to fall rapidly. It did
not mention that, while laptop and cell phone cells have become commodities
selling at fairly stable prices as low as $200/kWh, cells for plug-in vehicles
are quite different and are still produced in low volumes at prices that are far
above materials costs, with a lot of room to fall rapidly.)

MORE AS WE WENT TO PRESS: (as they used to say) As we were about to post this,
we saw "Cost-Effective PHEV Range: Battery Costs Versus Charging Infrastructure
Costs," a presentation to the Transportation Research Board's Annual Meeting,
"Investing in Our Transportation Future -- BOLD Ideas to Meet BIG Challenges,"
on January 12 by Argonne's D.J. Santini. This may be the first response we've
seen from a government entity comparing the NRC study to Lab and other studies.
(And it happens to have been presented to another branch of the NRC!) Slides
include ones titled, "Battery Cost Estimates are Hard to Compare. Many Factors
Influence Our $/kWh vs. NAS & Others" and "The Recent Incremental PHEV and E-REV
Price Increases Estimated by Argonne CTR Staff Are Well Below those of the NAS."
We encourage journalists to request the study from TRB or Argonne. (A PDF of
last year's presentation by Santini is available for $25.) And we hope a version
of this talk will soon be online at no charge from one or the other place.

THE NRC MAY NOT HAVE NOTED CARB'S CONCLUSIONS: The California Air Resource
Board's Zero Emission Vehicles Review led to a White Paper in November 2009.
From its detailed appendix, "Status of ZEV Technology Commercialization,"
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/2009zevreview/attachment_a_tsd.pdf , based
on multiple studies, we highlight four key points:

1. Cites its commissioned study by TIAX that, with volume production, battery
pack prices for PHEVs will reach $340-$400/kwh in the time period ending 2015
(p. 17). 2. Tesla Motors already buys laptop cells for $200 per kWh and in a
costly and time-consuming procedure, carefully packages them for EVs. As they
mechanize and expand this procedure, their EV packs will come in under $400/kwh.
(pp. 17-18) 3. From ARB surveys: "Some automakers reported PHEV and BEV
near-term, moderate volume costs would be on the order of $500-$600 /kWhr, with
evolutionary changes and moderate volume production 'next generation' design
changes necessary before costs move further down into the $400-500/ kWhr range."
(p. 19) 4. Finally, the section concludes: "No automaker has stated that current
design, or even next generation Li Ion batteries, will achieve sufficiently low
cost to make them competitive with conventional vehicles without ongoing
government incentives and/or tax credits. Several automakers do, however,
believe that Li Ion battery systems will evolve sufficiently to allow automakers
to sell cost competitive PHEVs and BEVs sometime prior to 2020" (p.25)

THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY VIEW: The Electric Power Research Institute has
been centrally involved in plug-in vehicle development for more than a decade.
With the Natural Resources Defense Council, EPRI produced the authoritative
"Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles" in 2007. Now
"Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Promise, Issues and Prospects" is by Fritz R.
Kalhammer (battery expert and longtime consultant to EPRI and government
agencies), Haresh Kamath, Mark Duvall, Mark Alexander (Project Manager, Director
of Electric Transportation, and Project Manager, respectively at EPRI), and
Bryan Jungers (researcher at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies).
They concur with the Argonne Labs projection that $200-$400/kwh battery packs
are feasible with technology now available. And they conclude, "investments in
HEVs and PHEVs with mass-produced Li Ion batteries promise to pay back within
the nominal 10-15 year lifetime of a vehicle, even at today's driving energy
(fuel and electricity) prices and vehicle efficiencies.These conclusions hold
without invoking longer- term economic incentives for PHEVs and/or penalties for
excess CO2 emissions from conventional vehicles. However, such incentives and
penalties will be instrumental in helping to offset the higher costs of
batteries produced at lower rates during the introduction of PHEVs." That
careful statement is on p. 6; the chart on p. 7 shows a PHEV-40 having an
even-better near-term payback of 10.5 years and a few years out, 4 years. This
EVS-24 paper can be found at
http://steps.ucdavis.edu/People/bdjungers/Plug-In%20Hybrid%20Electric%20Vehicles\
%20-%20Promise,%20Issues,%20and%20Prospects.pdf . We hope to hear more from EPRI
soon.

ADVOCATES: The Electrification Coalition has taken the lead in pointing to flaws
in the NRC study: find links at to its press release and fact sheet at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php . The Washington Post published
EC CEO Robbie Diamond's response to its over-the-top editorial; his letter said
in part, "the NRC seems to ignore these economies of scale. The NRC has done
much important work over the years. In this case, however, its assumptions are
badly out of line with industry and government estimates, and its conclusions --
and unfortunately, those of the Post editorial that relied on them -- suffer as
well." Its reply at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-response-to-nrc.php says, "The NRC
study significantly overestimates current battery costs, placing them out of
line with published research by DOE National Laboratories, exhaustive research
by auto-industry analysts and current industry experience." It cites conclusions
from its own comprehensive "Electrification Roadmap" that, "Based on current and
expected industry costs, a PHEV-40 will be cost effective for consumers in 2015
-- without any government subsidy whatsoever."

FILLING IN THE MISSING PIECES

WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE DOE, WHICH COMMISSIONED THE NRC STUDY? The Department of
Energy has much data internally and from its national labs that conflicts with
this report. But it has not reacted publicly even as the report's consequences
circulate mostly unchallenged in the media and in Congress. Outside parties can
help DOE validate its commitment to electrification and continue to sponsor
research grants, loan guarantees, ARPA-E, and the US-China EV Initiative. With
more data on the jobs and environmental impacts, DOE can catalyze volume
purchases of both new vehicles and conversions of much of its existing military,
civilian, and postal service fleet. These programs will in turn accelerate
technology development and volume production -- leading to further cost
reductions for batteries and other components.

WAITING IN THE WINGS: We're hoping that battery manufacturers -- the key primary
source -- will weigh in over the next few weeks, along with automakers other
than GM and Nissan. In 2009, 14 U.S. companies formed the National Alliance for
Advanced Transportation Batteries. They and many others are committing billions
of dollars to this effort because they think they'll soon be selling their
product in the millions of units. While citing their confidence that costs are
declining, that batteries are lasting longer than ever, and that carmakers can
draw down more than the 50% of the available energy used by GM's Volt, these
companies have volunteered little data, though some have said privately that
they are willing to respond if asked.

MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BATTERY COMPANIES: These companies strenuously
work to remain friends with everyone as they aggressively expand their
businesses, gain customers, and compete on rapidly improving technology. Even
understanding that, our fond hope zeroes in on the very first session of the
Electric Drive Transportation Association Conference in Washington. It's aptly
named, "Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles: Manufacturing Challenges and
Opportunities" http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/13921/pid/13921
.

ON JANUARY 27, we urge the CEOs, founders and top executives from leading
suppliers Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Solutions A123 Systems, Ener1,
Inc. Electrovaya, and Compact Power each to take five minutes to compare the
NRC's outlook to the mid-term prospects for their batteries' performance and
cost in mass production. We urge them as well to release their slide shows to
the general public -- not just to industry insider attendees at the conference.
If they do, they'll help ensure the expansion of their entire industry. They'll
earn the thanks of all those working to accelerate the electrification of
transportation. And you'll hear about it from us!

COMMUNICATE YOUR VIEWS! We encourage readers to review the reports we source.
Contact anyone you know at plug-in focused car and battery companies; encourage
them to take this opportunity to contribute to the discussion. And send a
pointer to this posting, which will be at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1087.html , plus your comments to print and
online media and your elected officials. Include your views on accelerating our
nation's commitment to support the production and deployment of new and
converted plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles. Thanks for all you're doing!

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

To understand many of the most critical issues that face the auto industry, read
the new report by the Electrification Coalition: "Electrification Roadmap:
Revolutionizing Transportation and Achieving Energy Security." It summarizes and
analyzes almost everything: the reasons we need to electrify transportation; the
way the auto industry is now organized, and the impact of its reliance on
petroleum; every aspect of the electrification solution, including technologies,
manufacturers, suppliers; and national and international government policies.
Most important of all, it outlines a way to accelerate a transition so that by
2040, 75% of light-duty (cars/SUVs, small trucks) vehicle miles travelled can be
electric. (At the same time, though its focus was on new light-duty vehicles,
CalCars believes it reinforces the case that if its strategy is paired with
conversion of existing gas-guzzlers, we can get significant benefits far
sooner.) Its authors and "blue-chip" corporate coalition members deserve all of
our thanks. We invite you to request a PDF of the report or a printed copy at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/electrification-roadmap.php and mak sure
it's on the radar screen of thought-leaders, elected officials, and the media.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

If you get this report and at least scan every one of its 170 pages and more
than 75 charts and tables, fully reading those where you realize you haven't
thought about its points, you'll end up an expert -- and a far more effective
advocate. Start at http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php with a
punchy 30-second "Revolutionize" ad -- and a request for the URL to download the
report.

BACKGROUND ABOUT SAFE: The organizing of the Electrification Coalition and the
Roadmap are the most recent major accomplishment of Securing America's Future
Energy http://www.secureenergy.org , the Washington-based policy group founded
by Robbie Diamond. Way back in 2005, and again in 2007, SAFE sponsored a
pioneering series of "Oil Shockwave" simulations with former and future
government officials playing cabinet officers responding to crises. A transition
to plug-in cars emerged as an urgent priority. Then SAFE formed the Energy
Security Leadership Council, bringing together corporate leaders and retired
military commanders. Its two reports on energy security helped advance policy
discussions and legislation in 2007-2009.  Now the Electrification Coalition's
analysis and proposals can send their own shockwaves around the world.

TIME TO MAKE CHOICES: Until now, PHEVS and EVs were one of many recommendations
from SAFE and ESLC. The new Electrification Coalition -- founding members
include the leadership of Aerovironment, A123Systems, Bright, Coda, Coulomb,
Fedex, Gridpoint, Johnson Controls, Kleiner Perkins, Nissan, NRG, PG&E, and
Rockwood Holdings -- has taken a dramatic step beyond the traditional ecumenical
approach. Every Member of Congress needs to hear why EC says it's time to make
some choices: we no longer have the luxury to devote scarce attention, time, and
resources to less promising solutions. They say it elegantly:

"Current federal policy provides support to a range of fuels designed to
displace petroleum as the dominant fuel in the U.S. transportation system.
Electrification offers the fuel diversity, price stability, and emissions
benefits needed to meaningfully increase U.S. energy security. Instead of
scattered, inconsistent federal support for a wide variety of alternatives, what
is required is a coherent, focused strategy designed to radically drive down oil
consumption in the light-duty fleet. Part of this strategy must be the
acknowledgement that other alternatives, while having value, cannot ultimately
revolutionize America's light-duty fleet and end oil dependence." (p.13 and 51)

COMPARE WITH EDTA'S JUST-RELEASED REPORT: This report can be looked at along
with The Electric Drive Transportation Association's eight-page "Policy Action
Plan 2010" http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/15237/pid/15237 ,
released in time for its Green Car Summit policy session today on Capitol Hill
and its conference Weds-Fri (see http://www.calcars.org/events.html ).

EC ROADMAP: CLIFF NOTES VERSION: In an effort to motivate thousands of readers
to spend time on this report, and equip you to use its information and
proposals, we offer our considered selection of highlights. We have picked out
what we see as the most important or said-nowhere else analytic points and given
you the page citations for each. We don't focus as much on the recommendations,
which are presented throughout the report and at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-launch.php . We highlight some
items where we see things differently as well, and where we think the strategy
can expand to gas-guzzler conversions.

SUMMARY: & I. THE CASE FOR ELECTRIFICATION:
* VEHICLE CATEGORIES: Cars and light duty trucks (the focus of the report)
together account for 46% of U.S. oil use. On the other hand, combined
differently, light, medium, and heavy trucks -- the vehicles best suited for
conversions -- are 33%. (10 -- figure EC):
* NOMENCLATURE: "GEV" -- Grid-Enabled Vehicles -- is how the EC adopts to refer
to PHEVs and EVs. And an "Electric Miles" concept bridges the gap between PHEVs
and EVs and enables apple-to-apple comparisons. Though GEVs says more, it's up
against "plug-in vehicles." Electric Miles could be widely adopted. (13)
* VOLUME CUTS COSTS: Battery prices will fall as manufacturers scale to
production volumes over 100,000/year. This can happen if car makers get the
incentives to change their vehicle types faster than on the usual 5-7 year cycle
-- and even sooner if gas-guzzler conversions become popular quickly. (14)
* COMPETITIVE TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: With the $7,500 incentive, PHEVs already
have a lower lifetime TCO than ICEs (internal combustion engine vehicles) (15)
* LOW VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED/PETROLEM REDUCTIONS UNTIL ABOUT 2025: We discuss
this several times later in the detailed sections. (17)
* ECOSYSTEM STRATEGY: a "phased ecosystem" approach, focusing incentives on
these areas, optimizes the adoption process. (18)
* HIGH AND VOLATILE OIL PRICES are no longer "transitory" -- multiple factors
make them "structural," (25), especially demand from developing nations (27).
* EVEN AT CURRENT OIL PRICES: the costs of dependence can't be sustained, and
the external costs aren't reflected in the market prices. (29)
* 12-15% OF DEFENSE BUDGET FOR OIL: A 2009 RAND Corp study pegged the cost at
$60-$90B/year. (30)
* ECONOMIC CAUSE & EFFECT? A provocative chart shows oil prices spiked before
every recession over the last 35 years. (33)
* $600 BILLION/YEAR DAMAGE: oil dependency's impact on US economy, as estimated
by Oak Ridge National Lab. (33)
* TRANSPORTATION & CLIMATE CHANGE: greatest opportunities for emissions
reductions. (The report points out that the stock of cars "turns over" faster
than power plants or buildings, but pegs their lifetimes at 10 years, which is
too low. This leads the analysts to have reduced interest in ICE conversions.
U.S. DOT data show lifetimes closer to 17 years after multiple owners. (35--see
more at 45 and 125-126)
* PRIORITY TO LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES: emphasizes this doesn't preclude steps for
medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (which have longer lifetimes), but doesn't focus
on them (as does CalCars). (36)
* "GIVE US BACK THE REINS:" We like this turn of phrase for how to diversify and
regain control over fuels for transportation. (37)
* ELECTRICITY HAS BEEN GETTING CHEAPER: Surprisingly, its price in real terms
has declined since 1983. Importantly for future projections, the fuel for
electricity is a lower percentage of the fuel's retail cost than is crude oil
compared to retail gasoline! (39)
* $10,000 LESS LIFETIME TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: Cites URL for an EPRI 2008
briefing showing the numbers. (40)
* "IMPORT ELECTRICITY'S BENEFITS INTO CARS" is a way of looking at converting
power generation and transportation . (41)
* MEDIAN AGE OF CARS IS 9.7 YEARS: Here we draw different conclusions. The
"median" is the mid-point (same number of cars younger and older; the longer
"mean" average is more important), and both need to take into account how much
fuel short- and long-lived vehicles use. The paragraph goes on to say that
ONE-THIRD OF CARS are still on the road after 33 years. The authors acknowledge
"the challenge: deploying GEVs in quantities sufficient to displace a large
fraction of U.S. oil consumption will take decades." Here's where we believe the
logic points to gas-guzzler retrofits. (45; see also p. 125)
* MARKET PENETRATION SCENARIOS: Even if the report's first milestones (25% of
new vehicles by 2020) are reached, GEVs will then amount to only 5.3% of the
total fleet. (46)
* IT WILL TAKE THE END OF BUSINESS AS USUAL TO GET THERE: The EC distinguishes
between goals and forecasts. (48)
* WE NEED A GAS TAX, BUT... Because gasoline is so cheap in the U.S., a tax
would have the biggest impact, but short of that, the nation and the government
need to choose electrification "as a dominant national strategy." (49).
* THREE REASONS TO CHOOSE ELECTRICITY: first, a sound way to transform
transportation; along the way, second, we fix the power generation sector;
third, we create the next global manufacturing industry and create jobs in the
U.S. (50)
* NATURAL GAS ALTERNATIVE? Use it in power plants for GEVs instead of fuel for
engines and you get TWICE the miles. (52)
* HYDROGEN "is much more expensive than electricity, and likely always will be."
(52)
* US COULD BE LEFT BEHIND if we don't commit to electrify our vehicles. (54)
* HISTORY LESSON: Five concise pages recap the Clinton-Era Partnership for a New
Generation of Vehicles, the Zero Emissions Mandate and EVs of the late 90s in
California., (55-60), then the incentive and loan programs of 2007-2009 (61-63).
* CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION: Reviews the many positive provisions in the
American Clean Energy & Security Act (Waxman-Markey) passed by the House in
2009, noting that it stops short of committing to electrification as a dominant
strategy. (63)

II. CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES:
* PRIMER ON HYBRID TECHNOLOGIES & BATTERIES from Japan and the U.S. (68-78)
* NO SHORTAGE OF LITHIUM: explanation and sources, including the pithy
explanation of why lithium dependence is unlike oil dependence: "we do not
deplete batteries as we drive, we deplete the energy stored within them."
(79-84)
* OTHER METALS AND RARE EARTH METALS briefly explored. (85)
* DECLINING BATTERY COSTS AS VOLUME RISES: Citations of multiple studies showing
price trends, some of which we highlighted in our last posting to CalCars-News,
"Rebuttals to Flawed National NAS Report -- and Challenge to Battery Industry,"
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1087.html . (86)
* SCALING ISSUES APPLY TO OTHER COMPONENTS & MANUFACTURING FACILITIES: The right
way to do this is to address every part of the supply chain. (88)
* PRIMER ON CHARGING & INFRASTRUCTURE: Of course, far less critical for PHEVs
than EVs. (90-98) Retells the important Tokyo Electric story showing consumers
may need reassurance more than chargers everywhere. (97)
* SMART METERS ON THE WAY: 40 million will be deployed in the U.S. by 2015
(California requires full retrofit by 2012). (103)
* GEVS: ICONIC SYMBOL OF THE SMART GRID and its leading edge. (104)
* VEHICLE-TO-GRID IN 4TH GENERATION GEVS: other than demonstration programs, V2G
is many years away. (106)
* CONSUMERS WANT 3-YEAR PAYBACKS: The writers may over-emphasize (as do many
journalists and industry analysts) how many consumers do the math on vehicle
economics. (Better Place, and Nissan with battery leasing, as well as declining
battery costs in general, may change the paradigms). (108-109)
* NEWER, BETTER INFO ON AVERAGE DAILY VEHICLE TRIP LENGTHS: Most previous
reports have been based on 2001 data (shown on page 123). Very informative
charts based on 2009 data. (111)
* 40 MILLION USED CARS SOLD ANNUALLY: These present a great opportunity to "fix"
cars that have lost much of their value -- especially those with low MPG. (113)
* CHART ON VEHICLE MIX: graphically shows how the percentages of cars, wagons,
pickups, vans and SUVs have changed 1975-2008. (114)

III. ANALYSIS OF THE GOAL
* 13 MILLION GEVS/YEAR MANUFACTURING CAPACITY BY 2020 is one goal of the EC's
strategy.(116)
* GEVS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR 15 YEARS: Looking at vehicle miles travelled,
the ramp-up will be slow. (124)
* CARS AND TRUCKS STAY ON THE ROAD FOR MANY YEARS: Returning to the topic on p.
45, the authors show that more durable light trucks last longer than cars: 40%
are on the road after 15 years. (text and charts 125-126)
* BY 2030, GEVS CAN BE 40% OF THE FLEET: cumulatively saving $3.7 trillion --
far more than the cost of any conceivable incentive programs. (127)
* GEV COMPONENT COST BREAKOUTS: Descriptions and projections from the EC's
technical advisors, PRTM Management Consultants. (130)
* UPFRONT COSTS DECLINE SHARPLY for PHEVs, including the tax credit; cheaper
than ICEs starting in 2014. (131)
* OPERATING COST ADVANTAGES OF GEVS: And the assumptions behind TCO
calculations. (132)
* WHY A GAS TAX MAKES SENSE: Returning to the topic from p. 49, a full page on
the reasons. The United Kingdom's tax of $3.28/gallon is almost 20x that of our
federal tax of 18.4 cents (133)

IV. STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT:
* 120 MILLION GEVS ON THE ROAD IN 2030: The EC's plan is an order of magnitude
larger than the US Energy Information Administration's April 2009 projection of
4.3 million. (139)
* DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS: PROVEN MODEL: Successful government boosts to
commercialize technologies go all the way back to Samuel Morse's telegraph
system in 1834. (140)
* FEDERAL FLEETS CAN LEAD THE WAY: Executive Orders to date have not been
effective. (145)
* HIGHER TAX CREDITS IN ELECTRIFICATION EOSYSTEMS: A strategy to maximize
impact. (148)
* REBATES AT TIME OF PURCHASE will be far more effective than tax credits. (149)
* 70% LESS CO2 IN TRANSPORTATION: The program outlined would have a large impact
by 2040 even with today's electric generation mix. (153)
* PAY FOR ENTIRE PROGRAM FROM ONE YEAR OF OIL SAVINGS: The full cost of all
proposals is less than the $600B of oil dependence costs to our economy in 2008.
(153)

APPENDIX I: INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR ELECTRIFICATION:
* INVALUABLE COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY SUMMARIES: Israel, Denmark, UK, Germany, France,
Spain, Austria, Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Japan. (154-157)
* CHINA IMPLEMENTING ECOSYSTEM STRATEGY IN 13 LARGEST CITIES: an extended
discussion of its strategies to maintain global manufacturing dominance.
(158-159)

APPENDIX II; STATE OF THE GLOBAL EV INDUSTRY
* COMPANY-BY-COMPANY SUMMARIES: AUTOMAKERS: GM, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan-Renault,
Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Hyundai, BYD, China's T10 Daimler, BMW,
Volkwagen, Volvo, Tesla, Th!nk, Fisker, Coda, Bright. BATTETRY MANUFACTURERS:
Johnson Controls, A123, Dow Kokam, Panasonic, Samsung, NEC, BYD, Evonik.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Better Place, ECOtality, Coulomb, Clipper Creek, Shore Power,
Elektromotive. POWER SECTOR INTERFACE: Gridpoint and others. (160-170)

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

As a kid, seeing postal trucks drive, stop,turn off, restart, or drive, stop,
and drive, first put the idea in my head that idling didn't make sense,
especially for delivery vehicles. The USPS has had several unsuccessful
experiments with EVs. Finally a savvy coalition is coming together to do it
right. It starts with "e-Drive," H.R. 4399, a bill recently introduced by NY
Rep. Jose Serrano with bipartisan co-sponsors, and a just-unveiled website to
build a support campaign. (Rep. Serrano is Chairman of the House Appropriations
Financial Services and General Government subcommittee, which oversees the
federal payment to the USPS.) Notably, the measure includes not only new plug-in
vehicles but also conversions of many of its existing local delivery vehicles --
those compact trucks built by Grumman, nearing the end of their life unless they
get an energy boost. At a time when Japan has committed to convert 1/4 of its
22,000-vehicle fleet to Electric, and when Ruth Goldway, the Chair of the US
Postal Regulatory Commission has become a strong advocate of plug-ins, the U.S.
has the opportunity to prove what's possible with its 142,000 LLVs. We'll be
talking about this effort next week (see http://www.calcars.org/events.html ). 
Below are some excerpts from the website at http://www.edrive.org -- a blog
introduction, legislative sponsors, and endorsements by the heads of PRC, FERC, 
the postal workers union, and PJM, the grid interconnection organization for 13
states and Washington, DC.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

FROM THE BLOG by founders Erik Toomre and Joy Leong http://www.edrive.org/blog

Thank you for visiting the site. As you probably know already, this site is
dedicated to providing information about the bipartisan proposed American
Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Act or "e-Drive" bill introduced as H.R. 4399 on
December 16, 2009. We would like to encourage you to register here at the
e-Drive.org website. Not only will you be able to post comments on any of the
blogs, but also it will give us a way to reach you with additional information
about the e-Drive bill.

The e-Drive bill would provide up to $2 billion for an Energy Department program
in which vehicle manufacturers would compete for grants to build electric
vehicles for immediate deployment by the U.S. Postal Service, operator of the
nations largest civilian fleet. Besides the environmental benefits and vast fuel
savings the program would achieve, the bills passage would also position the
Postal Service fleet as a key energy storage asset for the nations power grid.
Through Smart Grid technologies, new and converted electric postal vehicles
would serve as power storage devices for the grid, helping ease peak loads and
storing energy from intermittent or fluctuating sources, like wind power
systems.

There are two Phases of the e-Drive program. Phase I lasts 3.5 years and
involves a highly competitive solicitation for electric vehicles (EVs), Plug-in
Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and electric and PHEV powertrains for
conversions. The best performing solution(s) are rewarded with a large Phase II
contract. Each phase procures approximately 10,000 electric drive vehicles (or
powertrains that are used in conversions of existing LLVs) and 12,000 charging
stations.

Publicity about the e-Drive bill is growing. In the next two weeks, two events
are scheduled in which speakers will have comments about the e-Drive bill:

* Ruth Goldway, Chairman of the Postal Regulatory Commission will be speaking at
the EDTA (Electric Drive Transportation Association) Conference and Annual
Meeting for the Panel Session: Electric Does It (Part 1): Electric Drive at Work
and Off-Road on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 from 1:30pm-3:00pm in Washington DC.

* Felix Kramer, Founder of the California Cars Initiative will be speaking at
the RETECH 2010 conference, co-hosted by American Council On Renewable Energy
(ACORE) for the Panel Session: B7: Advanced Vehicles and Batteries on Friday,
February 5, 2010 from 1:30pm-3:00pm in Washington DC.

We expect a lot more coverage in the press and as word gets out within the
industry. We look forward to your support. Please send us your questions by
making a blog comment (registration required) and we'll try to address them
through additions to the FAQs or via a future blog article.

BILL SUMMARY
http://www.edrive.org/sites/default/files/012110%20E-Drive_hr4339_summary.pdf
(see also chart at
http://www.edrive.org/sites/default/files/012110%20E-drive-hr4339-graphic.pdf

E-Drive Bill -- HR 4399 Electrification of the Postal Fleet

USPS operates the largest commercial fleet in the country with 142,000 local
delivery vehicles. These "LLV" model vehicles average 9 MPG, have an average age
of 17 years, and need to be replaced or retrofit in the near future. The fleet
is an ideal test bed for large scale electrification because of its predictable
routes, frequent stops and starts, range of weather and terrain conditions, and
high visibility. Post offices could provide the public easy access to EV
charging stations.

The E-Drive bill provides $2 billion to fund electrification of 20,000 postal
delivery vehicles over 3 years. It builds upon the $2.4 billion investment in
American battery and electric vehicle component manufacturing capacity in 2009.
The industry is now at the point where it needs a major customer to provide
demand for large scale deployment. With strong Buy American provisions, the bill
will create high-paying American jobs and help revitalize the automotive
industry as it shifts from internal combustion engines to electric drive.

The E-Drive bill addresses national security concerns by reducing our dependence
on oil imports. Seventy percent of the oil consumed in 2008 went to the
transportation sector. The E-Drive bill will prove that wide scale deployment of
EVs is not only possible but desirable, and thus accelerate the nation's
movement toward alternative fuels.

Electrification of the postal fleet will reduce carbon emissions of the
country's largest fleet by up to 75% and lower annual fuel purchases by hundreds
of millions of dollars.

The E-Drive program capitalizes on both the Department of Energy's expertise in
batteries and electric vehicles and the Postal Service's experience in fleet
management. The bill:
* Has two phases: (1) production, deployment, and assessment of 10,200 vehicles
and 12,000 charging stations, and (2) subsequent award of 10,000 vehicles and
12,000 charging stations for the best solution(s) of Phase 1.
* Emphasizes competition among suppliers and between technologies, without
dictating a winning technology. Areas of interest include: "off the shelf"
e-Trucks, new highly efficient e-LLVs; PHEVs; new all-electric and PHEV
powertrains for conversions of existing LLVs; and charging stations.
* Lays the foundation for smart grid infrastructure by setting standards,
funding seven regional deployments across the nation, and building teams of
power companies, ISOs, aggregators, and fleet operators. The batteries in the
test fleet will make intermittent alternative energy sources, like wind, more
valuable by enabling connection to the grid at night.

HOUSE SPONSORS: http://www.edrive.org/congressionalsponsors

JOSE SERRANO (D-NY): "The e-Drive bill is a bold step to help the USPS achieve
sustainability from an operational standpoint. It also will help them lead the
greening of our nation's delivery fleets and jump-start the electric vehicle
industry in the U.S. Through a rigorous testing and competitive grant process,
administered by the Department of Energy, manufacturers, large and small, will
compete to bring their leading-edge technologies to the market. The industry
will grow stronger as a result -- creating knowledge, deploying new
technologies, and producing quality American jobs. Our nation must become a
leader in green technologies and leveraging the enormous assets of the USPS
provides us with a direct route toward that goal."
"Our nation is ready to support an electric vehicle fleet. Our power grid would
benefit, our industrial base would benefit, our environment would benefit, and
under this approach, the USPS, as well as its employees and customers, would
benefit. Its a win-win situation all around. I look forward to passing this bill
with my allies in Congress, and the support of the public and private sectors.

LEE TERRY (R-NE): "This legislation will provide a much-needed boost to the
development and use of electric drive vehicles on a nation-wide scale. It will
stimulate private sector investment in electric drive vehicles, powertrains and
new battery technologies. It also addresses Smart Grid integration through new
Vehicle-to-Grid technologies. I look forward to working with my colleague, Mr.
Serrano, on this forward-thinking approach to less dependence on fossil fuels
and reducing emissions from mobile sources."

RUSS CARNAHAN (D-MO): "By supplying new, more efficient electric vehicles built
right here in the United States we reduce fuel costs for the struggling Postal
Service and jolt American clean-energy manufacturing, creating jobs here at
home."

DAN MAFFEI, (D-NY): "This bill will spur American electric vehicle production,
creating manufacturing jobs and moving us toward a green economy. Central New
York is a leader in green technology innovation, and I am confident our region
will contribute to the e-Drive program's success."

STEVE ISRAEL (D-NY): "The United States Postal Service maintains the largest
civilian vehicle fleet in the world with about 221,000 vehicles in service. By
converting to a greener electric fleet we will be using the purchasing power of
the federal government to spur innovation, create new green jobs and reduce
energy costs for the postal service. I've worked with Congressman Serrano on
demonstration projects using these vehicles in New York and I am proud to
continue to work with him on the e-Drive bill."

CHARLES A. GONZALEZ (D-TX): "As world leaders convene at the UN Climate
Conference to find ways to reduce global carbon emissions, we are doing our part
here with the introduction of 'e-Drive'. Homes in America are visited by the
USPS six days a week, and it only makes sense that we find a green alternative
to one of the largest delivery fleets. With e-Drive we can lessen our dependence
on fossil fuels, reduce our carbon emissions, and create more green jobs as we
encourage the car manufacturers to develop more non-polluting vehicles."

ENDORSEMENTS http://www.edrive.org/endorsements

RUTH Y. GOLDWAY, Chairman, U.S. POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION: "This legislation
uses the unique characteristics of the Postal Service's existing transportation
network to rapidly increase the market for electric vehicles in the United
States. It provides well-deserved support for the Postal Service and a reasoned
plan for the simultaneous development of the electric grid and non-polluting
automobiles. I congratulate Congressman Serrano on his foresight and leadership
putting forward this program to create green jobs, an improved electric grid and
- most importantly - a revitalized mail delivery system."

JON WELLINGHOFF, Chairman of the FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION: "Done
right, electric vehicles provide a huge opportunity to add stability and
versatility to the grid and because of their crucial storage capacity they can
stimulate private investment in renewable electricity."

WILLIAM BURRUS, President of the AMERICAN POSTAL WORKERS UNION: "It will be good
for the Postal Service, good for the environment and good for the economy."

TERRY BOSTON, President and CEO of PJM, the largest Independent System Operator
in the country: "PJM is very supportive of congressional direction that helps to
advance vehicle-to-grid technology. ISOs are the non-profit entities that
operate the nation's electrical grid. Vehicle-to-grid is a credible technology
that has been successfully demonstrated within the PJM territory for more than
two years. Electric vehicle integration is both a challenge and an opportunity
that PJM is prepared to facilitate in the near-term. A highly visible fleet of
United States Postal Service vehicles would not only showcase clean and economic
transportation, but with smart charging would provide a positive contribution to
the electric grid."

FELIX KRAMER, Founder, THE CALIFORNIA CARS INITIATIVE: "e-Drive provide jobs
building new and converting existing postal vehicles. It can lower the postal
fleet's operating costs, improve the environment for postal workers and the
general public. These vehicles will help reduce our dependency on fossil fuels
and our greenhouse gases. The program will help build demand for batteries and
other components whose costs will decrease with high-volume production. And it
points to a future where most new vehicles and many of those already on the road
can plug in. Taken together, it's a way to move the broad trend to electrify
transportation into high gear."

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

The National Research Council recently issued a report predicting that plug-in
vehicles will remain uneconomical without subsidies for decades. This report
attracted much attention, with media concluding the growing interest could be
just one more example of overblown expectations. Its message has percolated
through Congress, undercutting the efforts of legislators and government
agencies seeking effective rapid ways to create clean jobs, revive domestic
industries, reduce dependence on foreign oil and cut greenhouse gases. Just one
problem: its assumptions are deeply flawed -- and as they say, "garbage
in/garbage out."  How can anyone respond effectively? We've heard experts say
their comments were not taken into account. One way to set the record straight
is not to turn to "other studies with other viewpoints." The only thing a
forecaster can't dispute is reality. Now leading battery manufacturers are
beginning to come forward, reporting their real-world experience and business
assumptions. Our efforts, with partners, to respond to the report, are gaining
momentum! Details below.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

See our two previous postings from earlier in January, "Rebuttals to Flawed
National NAS Report -- and Challenge to Battery Industry  and "Plug-In Community
Needs to Respond to Outdated/Biased NAS Report" at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html  for the background to this
controversy. (For your convenience, you'll find excerpts from the second posting
on January 15, in which we invited battery manufacturers to respond, at the end
of this posting.)

THE QUESTIONS WE ASKED BATTERY MAKERS: On January 27, we had the opportunity to
ask top executives of many of the leading companies in the industry to state
their views publicly at the Electric Drive Transportation Associations' battery
session.  Here's (roughly) what we asked:

Your presentations are reporting your real-world views on the battery
business--that's very different from forecasts. As you know the National
Research Council's report says that current prices for battery packs are greater
than $1,000/kw-hr; will take overt 10 years to get under $400/kw-hr. CalCars has
pointed out the impact of this report on the Energy Department's efforts to
prioritize transportation electrification. We've suggested to your companies,
publicly and privately, the need to respond. While we recognize the generally
approach of keeping valuable pricing information private, released only to
customers, will you be willing to draw the curtains apart a little? In
particular, today, or soon, are you willing to:

* consider responding individually or joining with other companies to respond to
the report?
* disclose your selling prices for battery packs, in dollars per usable
kilowatt-hour, two or three years ago when you begin to have volume production,
and ten years out?

FIRST TO RESPOND WAS RIC FULOP, CO-FOUNDER & MARKETINGVP OF A123 SYSTEMS: after
complimenting CalCars for our continued advocacy, he said "their data is off,"
confirming what anyone would know who's been watching A123's presentations in
the past year. It should get everyone's attention that he then confirmed that
the company's selling price for packs in 2012 will be lower than the report
projects a decade out. Three years from now, the company's price points will be
at the levels seen in 2030 by the NRC.

CHARLES GASSENHEIMER, CHAIRMAN & CEO OF ENER1, pointed out that the projections
didn't take into account strategies to take advantage of how the auto industry
defines battery vehicles' "end of life." At that point they can still deliver
80% of the power they originally supplied. Unless secondary uses are factored
in, the "full value" of batteries are not being counted.

SANKAR DAS GUPTA, CEO OF ELECTROVAYA, declined to engage with the specifics of
the projections, instead saying "there are a lot of crazy reports out there; we
can't pay attention to them all." Of course, that got a laugh -- though we take
the reports seriously because of their impact on policy making as well as public
understanding and expectations. He also predicted the time not too far away
when, as happened with cigarettes, the broad negative impacts of fossil
fueled-vehicles on, health, economics and the environment would speed our
transition to plug-in vehicles.
E
MICHAEL ANDREW OF JOHNSON CONTROLS - SAFT  also commended CalCars, and reminded
the audience that it has previously said it sees pricing under $500/kwh by 2015,
and going forward reaching substantially lower levels in the following years.

AND BY THE WAY, NO LITHIUM SUPPLY ISSUES: In response to a later question,
A123's Ric Fulop cited the analysis by the Electrification Coalition (see our
recent posting and http://www.electrificationcoalition.org ). He said there's
enough lithium for two billion vehicles -- currently under one billion vehicles
are on the road.
Unfortunately we don't have a session transcript -- all the more reason for
journalists now to follow up, and for the National Research Council and the
Department of Energy to take this new information and determine how best to
integrate it into their analytical framework, conclusions and strategic
recommendations.

Stay tuned for more industry responses from battery manufacturers and their
automotive customers!

BACKGROUND: HERE'S SOME OF WHAT WE SAID IN OUR SECOND POSTING ON THIS SUBJECT ON
JAN. 15 (AND SENT TO THE COMPANIES PRESENTING AT THE EDTA CONFERENCE)

CLOSELY-HELD INFORMATION: It's hard to get battery pack pricing data. Each
battery manufacturer and automaker sees its costs as key to its competitiveness.
With some batteries selling at dramatically high retail prices, manufacturer
prefer to limit access to pricing forecasts for cells or packs in large volumes
to potential automotive customers. And since automotive batteries are not yet
mature products, price and performance continually evolve. With such competitive
pressures and rapid-fire changes, researchers and even governments are often
left with incomplete, inconsistent, out-of-date, or even erroneous price data.

ADVOCATES: The Electrification Coalition has taken the lead in pointing to flaws
in the NRC study: find links at to its press release and fact sheet at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php . The Washington Post published
EC CEO Robbie Diamond's response to its over-the-top editorial; his letter said
in part, "the NRC seems to ignore these economies of scale. The NRC has done
much important work over the years. In this case, however, its assumptions are
badly out of line with industry and government estimates, and its conclusions --
and unfortunately, those of the Post editorial that relied on them -- suffer as
well." Its reply at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-response-to-nrc.php says, "The NRC
study significantly overestimates current battery costs, placing them out of
line with published research by DOE National Laboratories, exhaustive research
by auto-industry analysts and current industry experience." It cites conclusions
from its own comprehensive "Electrification Roadmap" that, "Based on current and
expected industry costs, a PHEV-40 will be cost effective for consu
mers in 2015 -- without any government subsidy whatsoever."

WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE DOE, WHICH COMMISSIONED THE NRC STUDY? The Department of
Energy has much data internally and from its national labs that conflicts with
this report. But it has not reacted publicly even as the report's consequences
circulate mostly unchallenged in the media and in Congress. Outside parties can
help DOE validate its commitment to electrification and continue to sponsor
research grants, loan guarantees, ARPA-E, and the US-China EV Initiative. With
more data on the jobs and environmental impacts, DOE can catalyze volume
purchases of both new vehicles and conversions of much of its existing military,
civilian, and postal service fleet. These programs will in turn accelerate
technology development and volume production -- leading to further cost
reductions for batteries and other components.

WAITING IN THE WINGS: We're hoping that battery manufacturers -- the key primary
source -- will weigh in over the next few weeks, along with automakers other
than GM and Nissan. While citing their confidence that costs are declining, that
batteries are lasting longer than ever, and that carmakers can draw down more
than the 50% of the available energy used by GM's Volt, these companies have
volunteered little data, though some have said privately that they are willing
to respond if asked.
MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BATTERY COMPANIES: our fond hope zeroes in on the
very first session of the Electric Drive Transportation Association Conference
in Washington. It's aptly named, "Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles:
Manufacturing Challenges and Opportunities"
http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/13921/pid/13921 . We urge the
CEOs, founders and top executives from leading suppliers Johnson Controls-Saft
Advanced Power Solutions A123 Systems, Ener1, Inc. Electrovaya, and Compact
Power each to take five minutes to compare the NRC's outlook to the mid-term
prospects for their batteries' performance and cost in mass production.If they
do, they'll help ensure the expansion of their entire industry. They'll earn the
thanks of all those working to accelerate the electrification of transportation.
And you'll hear about it from us!

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html

While I'm at the always-entertaining and inspiring TED conference
http://conferences.ted.com/TED2010 (about the intersection of
Technology, Entertainment and Design) in Long Beach, promoting
plug-ins and internal combustion retrofits round the clock, I wanted
to take a minute to note a few items: a great short GM video and a
milestone test drive session of the Chevy Volt.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

WATCH "ELECTRIC VEHICLE THOUGHT LEADERS: The Future of Electric
Vehicles (2.5 minutes),GM's February 2010 video. CalCars' Felix
Kramer gets the first and last quoted comments; includes EV advocate
Chelsea Sexton, Electric Power Research Institute's Mark Duvall,
California Public Utilities Commission's Mike Peevey, Chevrolet
General Manager Jim Campbell.

It's still on the home page at http://www.chevroletvoltage.com/ and
its permalinks are
http://www.chevroletvoltage.com/index.php/videos/videodirectlink/165-electric-ve\
hicle-thought-leaders-discuss-the-future-of-evs.html
and at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3r9Os8VCZQ

MY DREAM STARTS TO COME TRUE: I finally got my first drive of a Chevy
Volt. GM's Volt Vehicle Line Director Tony Posawatz helped put the
car through its paces at the TED2010 event in Long Beach, Feb., 9,
2010 -- which Posawatz described as the first time the vehicle was
demoed to non-insider "civilians" (people outside the
auto/media/advocacy communities).

The car handled beautifully, peppy with a pretty tight steering
wheel. Engineers have done a good job integrating two options for
levels of regenerative braking. Lots of new vehicle information going
on display screens. And the interior is starting to feel a bit more
luxurious. You can download an application to remotely monitor and
control aspects of the car for iPhone, Blackberry, Android: look for
Onstar Experience.

FOR A PHOTO OF FELIX AND TONY, see http://www.calcars.org/photos-groups.html .

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

BIG THINK'S FUTURE IN MOTION SERIES: This well-regarded website -- sometimes
described as "YouTube for Ideas," or "the web version of The Charlie Rose Show" 
-- presents in-depth interviews and "connects people and ideas." It's launching
a new seven-interview series on the future  of transportation, beginning with a
29-minute interview with Felix Kramer at http://bigthink.com/ideas/18785 . See
more about the interview and the website and the complete listing of
participants below.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

Big Think has also pulled out 7 excerpts at http://bigthink.com/felixkramer ,
including a 4-minute segment about climate change and the end of business as
usual at "The Disaster Movie Approach to Fuel Efficiency" at
http://bigthink.com/ideas/18792 . The transcript of the full interview is also
at http://bigthink.com/ideas/18785.

Also see the introduction http://bigthink.com/ideas/18809 by sponsor Richard F.
Schaden, described at Beyond the Edge as "aeronautical engineer, active ATP
pilot, businessman, restaurateur, and highly experienced trial lawyer", and "a
visionary in the development of ground-breaking public/private partnership in
the area of legal philanthropy." And at http://bigthink.com/richardschaden you
can watch Schaden's 8-minute "Why We're Stuck at a Red Light," where he talks
about his Tesla and his interest in electrifying aviation. This is also a side
passion of CalCars Technology Lead Ron Gremban, whose presentations at the
Experimental Aircraft Association Symposia,  "Are Practical Electric and Hybrid
Airplanes Just Around the Corner?" and "Hybridizing Light Aircraft" can be found
at http://www.calcars.org/downloads.html . Ron continues to explore the
potentials of planes to be plug-in hybrids.

SERIES INTRODUCTION: How will we move fifty years from now? What will cars look
like? Will we be vacationing in space? Over the next seven Wednesdays, Big Think
is rolling out a series on the future of transportation, bringing together
innovations in disparate realms of science and engineering and applying them to
the epic challenges we face. Today we hear from Felix Kramer, the founder of Cal
Cars, who explains the potential for plug-in vehicles. Watch these expert
interviews to discover what the future holds­and see how you'll be a part of it.
This series is sponsored by Beyond the Edge http://www.beyondtheedge.org .

SERIES DESCRIPTION AND SCHEDULE at http://bigthink.com/ideas/18809 lists the
speakers "arriving' the next seven Wednesdays:

* February 24: Felix Kramer, Founder of the non-profit, California Cars
Initiative.
* March 3: Burt Rutan, Aerospace Engineer and founder of the Rutan Aircraft
Factory and Scaled Composites
* March 10: William J. Mitchell, Director of MITs Design Laboratory and the
research group, Smart Cities
* March 10: Ryan Chin, Researcher in MITs Smart Cities research group
* March 17: Geoffe Wardle, Director, Advanced Mobility Research, Art Center
College of Design.
* March 24: Nathan Lewis, Professor of Chemistry, at the California Institute of
Technology.
* March 31: Joseph SussmanProfessor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at
MIT
* March 31: Douglas Malewicki, Aerospace engineer and inventor of the SkyTran, a
Personal Rapid Transit system
* April 7: Peter H. Diamandis, Chairman and CEO of the X PRIZE Foundation,
* April 7: Michael Schrage-- Research fellow with the Sloan School of
Management's Center for Digital Business

The videos are created using effective and innovative technology that enable the
interviewee, sitting in front of a white background to look and talk directly to
the viewer as if you were conducting the interview. It was developed by
documentary film maker Errol Morris, used most recently with Robert McNamara in
"The Fog of War" and with Americans involved in Abu Ghraib in "Standard
Operating Procedure." For more about the founding of Big Think see
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/technology/07summers.html

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

GETTING THERE ASAP: CalCars 2.0 aims to convert tens of millions of
gas-guzzler vehicles now on the road to run partly or entirely on
electricity. What will it take to reach that goal? How can we turn a
game-changing idea and a few prototypes into a scalable global
solution? If we replicate our CalCars 1.0 strategies, it may take
seven years. If instead we mesh our advocacy and partnerships with an
effective, profitable business enterprise, we can start this
extraordinary transformation in two or three years. That's our plan.
Below we outline how to get there, how a new company will pair its
efforts with the nonprofit CalCars, and how we define success. We
wind up with ways you can help us identify and inspire an
extraordinary leader and business team to jump into this opportunity ASAP.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

YES, WE'VE WON STAGE ONE These days, we and our partners are feeling
gratified and optimistic. PHEVs and EVs will go on sale in the U.S.
late this year, and we're witnessing a global stampede toward plug-in
cars. Last October, we joyfully declared victory for our goal of
mass-produced PHEVs -- see
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1078.html . (Of course, much
remains to do to ensure their successful commercialization.) Now we
aim to build on that victory. Our "Big Fix" Campaign for volume
retrofits can advance transportation electrification's benefits by a decade.

HERE'S WHY WE NEED TO DO MORE: We simply can't wait around to see
improved energy security and CO2 reductions as new vehicles trickle
into the marketplace. New plug-ins, both as a percentage of the 250
million U.S. and 900 million global vehicles, and in terms of their
fossil fuel reductions, will be a drop in the bucket for over 15
years. That prompted us to come up with the fast-track conversion
strategy. At http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html we analyze
the problem, link to news, and profile small companies that show
what's possible.

SHAI AGASSI AS ROLE MODEL: You've watched the rapid rise of Shai
Agassi, Founder of Better Place. He walked away from the co-CEO job
at a global software company to make a difference. By his sheer
audacity and ability to enlist governments, investors, and employees
to his vision, he has turned an imaginative concept into promising
projects in several countries. (Better Place's business models are
somewhat controversial. We happen to believe PHEVs will predominate
for a decade or longer for a range of reasons, but that's another
story.) We're rooting for Shai -- if he wins, we'll get more plug-ins sooner!

WHAT'S THE LINK? Why talk about Shai and Better Place? He's an
effective serial entrepreneur with valued attributes, style, skills,
network, and drive. We want to identify someone like him. While Shai
focuses on new EVs, this serial entrepreneur -- call him or her SEER
-- will put together the pieces that become a profitable global
conversions company for existing internal combustion engine vehicles.

THE CHALLENGE: SEER will start and fund a company, building the
alliances, supply chain and private and public support that enables
it to grow rapidly. SEER will build a big business, while winning
over skeptics or going around them.

QUALIFICATIONS: SEER needs the personal assets or access to others
who, because of SEER's track record, will provide seed funding. SEER
needs the savvy to develop the business plan, plus the connections to
bring in large investors quickly. Ideally, SEER has business
experience in, or at least familiarity with, the auto industry and
related technologies, though we're open to all capable candidates.
The SEER can be based anywhere if willing to travel as needed. (What
if more than one great candidate steps forward? That's a problem we
would love to have -- and work to ensure that everyone wins!)

JOB VISION: SEER will bring together a consortium (or a "rollup") of
the small companies working on distinct conversion designs, plus
larger integrators and component suppliers. SEER will focus on the
"low-hanging fruit" -- vehicle types that sell in the millions, run
for decades, have room for batteries, and are found in fleets. Former
Intel CEO Andy Grove calls them "PSVs" -- pickups, SUVs, RVs, vans --
to which we add big and small buses, military vehicles, other
people-movers, and large sedans.

SEER WILL BUILD A TEAM THAT WILL:
* rapidly design and build proofs-of-concept to demonstrate multiple
technical solutions;
* deliver test vehicles to national labs, utilities, and others for analysis;
* protect patents and trade secrets, and eventually license design solutions;
* develop scalable production designs;
* develop channels to supply custom components globally;
* partner with an energy services company for financing to reduce or
eliminate high first costs.

PARTNERING WITH NON-PROFIT CALCARS WILL LEVERAGE OUR NETWORKS TO:
* showcase these early prototypes to build awareness and support;
* gain government approvals for safety, drivability and other requirements;
* secure regulatory changes to facilitate the scaling of the business;
* promote public incentives for conversions, CO2, and black carbon credits;
* identify first fleet and early-adopter customers.

INITIAL SUCCESS WILL COME when the team succeeds in negotiating deals
with one of the world's automakers. That company will cooperate
technically with these efforts and then "bless" them. It will sign on
to partnerships and payment structures that will bring it and its
dealers revenues and kudos for rounding up the cars to be fixed. And
as happened for PHEVs in 2006, ICE conversions will be broadly
recognized as a central way to electrify transportation.

OTHER FARSIGHTED CARMAKERS WILL FALL IN LINE: The global opportunity
and the "end of business as usual" imperatives can impel them to see
how fixing their vehicles will bring benefits that surpass negative
impacts on new car sales. They can begin to realign their businesses,
evolving from selling (and saying goodbye to) cars to providing
"mobility services" -- while receiving public appreciation and
incentives for doing so. Their businesses can expand to include
upgradeable products, access to car-sharing, and partnerships in
making homes, workplaces, and public areas friendly to more effective
ways of transporting people and goods.

HELP SPREAD THE WORD: TO HELP IDENTIFY A SERIAL ENTREPRENEUR, PLEASE
FORWARD THIS MESSAGE TO YOUR NETWORK OR POINT YOUR CONTACTS TO
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1093.html or send them the
readable 2-page flyer at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-seer.pdf .
Send this to people you know in automotive and technology industries,
cleantech, venture capital, executive search firms, business schools,
media, in penthouses and on yachts and mountain slopes around the world.
IF YOU MIGHT BE THE SEER: Please send us a cover letter with your
vision and your take on CalCars' strategy. Write to jobs@....
Paste your background info into the email or point to a URL. To keep
things simple and avoid viruses, we don't open email attachments.

-- Felix Kramer, Founder & Ron Gremban, Technology Lead

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

In addition to being its own organization, CalCars.org is a chapter
http://www.eaaev.org/eaachapters.html of the Electric Auto
Association, found at http://wwweaaev.org or the easier to remember
http://www.electricauto.org , a 43-year, old international membership
organization. Felix Kramer and Ron Gremban have talked and shown our
vehicles at EAA's annual meeting since 2004. This year, in Palo Alto
Feb. 27, Felix provided a report and update about our progress. You
can find that colloquial talk below -- it's a quick read that brings
you up to speed on our activities, and it ends with a personal note.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

This presentation was accompanied by a few slides, viewable as part
of the EAA's combined 2MB PDF for the meeting
http://electricauto.org/files/AnnualMeeting/eaa-2010.pdf . In the
lightly edited transcript that follows, we include the slide numbers
if you want to follow along:

(36) It is really a pleasure to be here and it's really fun to follow
Marc (Geller of Plug In America) and all his enthusiasm. I couldn't
do better than to just echo what he says. On a personal level, I hope
that a year from now, my converted Prius will be a Chevy Volt and my
Camry Hybrid will be a Nissan Leaf. I can't wait until that moment comes.

(37) So this really is our year -- we've had a lot of victories. This
is a short version of a 20-slide presentation that's at
http://www.CalCars.org/downloads -- you can take a look there.

I came to EAA in 2002 for the first time saying, "You've been talking
about all-electric vehicles, but let's look at plug-in hybrids." And
since then, it's just gotten better and better in terms of the close
relationship between the organizations. We got the Keith Cronk
Technical Achievement Award in 2004 for converting a Prius. We became
a chapter of EAA. We worked very closely with you folks, Plug In
America, with Friends of the Earth, VoteSolar, Project Get Ready, and
the utilities. We need MORE cooperation among all these groups --
much more, plus information sharing about who's doing what because
there's a lot to do and we can all benefit from that.

In October, we declared victory on plug-in hybrids! We wanted to put
them on the map and we wanted to get them mass-produced -- and it's
happening. There are going to be cars on the road. That doesn't mean
we don't have a lot to do, but we were really happy to be able to
say, after seven years, "We've won!" A small group of people changed
the whole auto industry -- that's an incredible accomplishment.

(38) This is our slide showing the cars
http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html -- we have a vehicle tracker
which focuses only on plug-in hybrids; Plug In America has a great
vehicle tracker on all vehicles of all sizes -- both plug-in hybrid
and all-electric. There are so many people covering this area now
that we don't have to do everything anymore. We used to do
CalCars-News once or twice a week and now we do it a couple of times
a month. We're really getting there.

You can see what's happening with all of these cars. The Chevy Volt
and the Fisker Karma will be the first plug-in hybrids, following the
BYD car that's already on sale.

(39) You can start digesting [our market penetration slide] while I
talk about a couple of other things. One of them is that I suggest
that anyone who is so motivated, Breathe California (the former
American Lung Association) has the Clean Air Award coming up on April
16th. Until March 12th, I encourage you to consider nominating EAA,
Plug In America or CalCars for that award and you can do that at
cleanairawards.org.

So, we won, OK? So what's next? First, we wanted to ensure
commercialization, but we wanted to ensure a SUCCESSFUL
commercialization. As you all know, we've had unsuccessful
commercialization in the past. And that means a lot of work to go on
now, which all three organizations have been talking about a lot, to
make sure those cars meet people's expectations, that their
expectations are calibrated to what they're getting, that the
infrastructure is available and that, in general, all resources
needed get to those cars.

It's really important to deal with all of the misinformation --
that's a continuing concern of all of us. We did a lot of work over
the last month in combating the misinformation by the National
Research Council about the prospective cost of batteries. We got some
of the battery makers to state in public that their projections for
2020 and 2030 -- the best case projections in this National Research
Council's report -- were actually the numbers that they were either
experiencing now or expected in the next three or four years. And
you'll see some more news from the battery makers coming out about
that. Because they need to stand up themselves and say, "this
industry is viable right now," and they're not doing enough about that yet.

Then we come to the issue of this slide. We need to accelerate
plug-in penetration. I want to encourage EVERYBODY to get this
report, the "Electrification Roadmap" from
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org . These are the people --
Securing America's Future Energy -- they did the first simulations on
what happens if we have oil disruptions. That's the place where
famously Jim Woolsey and Chelsea Sexton first met. They've done a
tremendous job with this -- if you look at the people, the sponsors.
It's a huge document -- ask for it and they'll send you a URL to
download it. You can request a print copy.

It is the best report there is in terms of production values, and it
also talks about what the most aggressive scenario going to result
in, in the next ten years of getting plug-in cars on the road. They
state the numbers pretty well and, if you look at them, you'll see
they're not good enough. These numbers on our chart here show that
plug-in cars are such a small percentage of the fleet of vehicles --
250 million cars on the road in the U.S. -- that they'll be a TRICKLE
for the next 10-15 years with little impact on petroleum reduction,
CO2 reduction and energy security.

And that's why we're calling what's next for us "The Big Fix." That
means taking existing vehicles, especially the big, heavy-duty
vehicles -- pickups, SUVs, vans and so forth -- and converting them
to all-electric or plug-in hybrid. This is in the tradition of what
we did on the plug-in hybrid conversions, but there we were
converting a fuel-sipper into a twice as good car. And if you can
take a 10-mile-per-gallon vehicle and make it a 20, you're much
better off than taking a 50 and turning it into a 100.

We've been talking about this for about a year or so, and we've come
to realize that the advocacy model for it is not going to work --
it's going to take too long. I'll talk a little about that in a few
minutes. Basically, I really encourage everybody here to start
thinking about this. I'm really glad that Marc talked about it in the
context of the Postal Service bill, but the awareness that we
actually have to do a lot more with the vehicles on the road --
equivalent to what we're doing with our buildings, fixing them -- is
really important. We have been the sole advocates for that perspective so far.

(40) Here's an example -- an F-150, the world's most popular vehicle
U.S. for the last 30 years, turned from a 15-mile-per-gallon gasoline
car into a vehicle with a 30-mile range, all-electric, and then it
becomes a 21-mile-per-gallon hybrid. From HEVT, a small company in
Chicago, which needs investors.

(41) REV in Vancouver, converts SUVs into pure-electric vehicles,
working with Ford dealers in Canada and making some sales in
California. (42) The Rocky Mountain Institute spinoff Bright
Automotive, they haven't gotten their federal grant yet, their
federal loan yet, so while they wait, they're taking a VW
Transporter, a world vehicle not in the U.S., and converting it into
a plug-in hybrid. (43) This is everybody's favorite, Neil Young's
vehicle, a Lincoln Continental -- in Woodside and Kansas.

On our website we have right on the home page a link to Internal
Combustion Engine Conversions
http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html , and we're eager to
highlight all of the companies that are doing things about this. That
vehicle out in the parking lot with the Capstone turbine -- that's a
conversion. If that were a company, we'd like to help them succeed.

That's the end of my presentation, but I just want to talk about a
couple of other things. We announced a couple of days ago our search
for a serial entrepreneur. To take this to the next level, we need to
find somebody to start a company and roll up some of these small
companies or get them to cooperate to create a global business
opportunity, a global industry. Someone like Shai Agassi, what Shai
has done on EVs. I urge you to read that on our website at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1093.html or
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-seer.pdf . And if you know any people
who meet the bill, you can send them to us And anybody here who
thinks they ARE that person or who knows someone, I have a couple of
copies of the "Electrification Roadmap." I can give it to you to read
and you can pass on to that person so that they can understand this
opportunity.

So spread the word on this serial entrepreneur goal. Take a look at
BigThink.com http://bigthink.com/ideas/18785 for a half-hour
conversation, at what's called the "Charlie Rose of the Internet"
website, where I talk about our whole perspective on where we go from
here. And if you can support CalCars at
http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html , it would be great.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE, for me, I feel like I'm starting to say, "thanks,
good bye," ultimately in some ways, because this has been a great
experience for me the last seven or eight years. I'm NOT a car
person. I lived in Manhattan and didn't own a car for 25 years. And I
have loved every minute of what I've been doing here and it's the
best thing I've ever done in my life.

There's still a lot to do, but fundamentally what we really have to
do -- all of us, as we get to this next stage -- we have to take this
lesson and broaden it to the whole world. We have to take every
device in the world and run it on electricity and clean the grid. And
in vehicles we have to reduce the miles traveled, and we have to find
ways to get freight delivered by train instead of by truck.

We have to do all those kinds of things. We have to do a lot of other
things like eat less meat. And we have to celebrate our earth and
find ways to save it. And the success of the plug-in car movement, we
need to make that an inspiration for the world for how people can
make a difference in everything they do. So thank you. (Applause)

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

What company will be first to make a business in large-scale
conversions of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? It's a new
race, with a promising new contender. ALTe, a Michigan company with a
management team experienced in automotive technology and business,
has just come out of stealth. It made its debut not at "alternative
fuels" event but at  the 2010 National Truck Equipment Association
(NTEA) Work Truck Show and Green Truck Summit, March 11 in St. Louis.
The company is at http://www.altellc.com . Below we summarize and
outline its designs, achievements, and future plans, including
excerpts from the company's released information and a Forbes
Magazine profile. And we compare its technology with another
promising gas-guzzler conversion.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

ALTe is big news. It's among the positive developments pointing to
the potential for CalCars' "Big Fix" campaign to succeed alongside
the arrival of new plug-in vehicles. There's movement at the Postal
Service to begin to electrify its fleet. Proposed Congressional
legislation, backed by leaders of the Postal Regulatory Commission,
is building support. USPS has picked five companies to demonstrate
plug-in technology on retrofit delivery trucks -- see
http://www.edrive.org/news . Candidates are responding to our efforts
to recruit a SEER (successful serial entrepreneur) to lead a global
retrofit industry http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1093.html .
Check for new developments at CalCars-News.

At http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html we list the companies
that have announced they're working toward volume production of PHEV
and EV conversions of ICE vehicles. Among these -- and others still
under wraps -- we know of none that have come as far as ALTe, both in
production engineering and in assembling the team, resources,
facilities, connections, and customers for volume retrofits.

The market opportunity is huge. ALTe says its designs could be
applied to 80% of the vehicles found in our light-to-medium-duty
fleet, including 70 million light trucks, 32 million light vans, 5
million medium trucks, and hundreds of thousands of commercial vans,
shuttle buses, taxis, limos, military vehicles, etc. ALTe, looking at
vehicles in fleets of five or more, finds almost eight million just at Ford.

MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND GOALS

ALTe made a big splash when it unveiled its prototype Ford F-150
conversion (see 2 photos and 2 drawings at our ICE Conversions page).
While we expect to see companies with many business models and
technologies, ALTe already provides validation to the "Big Fix"
strategy. We'll talk later about technical aspects; the company's
promising accomplishments on the business side include:
* FACILITIES & SOURCING: a 185,000 assembly plant in Auburn Hills, MI
and a substantial supply chain.
* FIRST ORDER: up to $60M/year from Gulf Stream Coach for 3,000
shuttle bus conversions for four years; other potential corporate and
military vehicle retrofit projects (ALTe is working with the
innovative U.S. Army TARDEC program).
* FINANCING: $15 million committed or raised, raising $15M more;
$18.3M in Michigan state incentives; application pending for $101M
from the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Technology Vehicles
Manufacturing Loan Program. (This program funded large automakers as
well as Tesla and Fisker; Bright Automotive is also waiting.) ALTe
plans to produce retrofits eligible for the federal 10% buyer tax
credit for conversions (maximum is $4,000 per vehicle).
* SCHEDULE: customer evaluation prototypes by October 2010; with
funds from expected, scaling up for mass production a year later.
* STRATEGY: plans start with a retrofit business, expand to licensing
of technology and selling components, and eventual partnerships with
major and niche automakers for new vehicles.
* DISTRIBUTION: plans include individual national accounts, big box
retailers, partnering with a nationwide network of auto service
centers, a network of dealers, fleet depots, and smaller garages.
* INDUSTRY DOOR-OPENERS: joinig the Board of Directors are Thomas
LaSorda, former Chrysler Group President and CEO, and Steven Landry,
former Chrysler EVP of North American Sales and Marketing and Global
Service and Parts.

EXCERPTS FROM COMPANY PRESS AND PRESENTATION MATERIALS

MISSION: "ALTe LLC is a Michigan-based technology company and mass
producer of electric propulsion systems. ALTe is committed to leading
the evolution of the automobile industry from gasoline-powered
vehicles to electric technology. With a unique combination of Detroit
and Silicon Valley automotive engineering experience, the ALTe team
is dedicated to innovation, excellence in engineering and operations,
and advancing sustainable mobility for mankind. The company will
provide electric and plug in hybrid vehicles at a very significant
scale, faster than any of the known automakers or potentially
competing powertrain providers."

DESCRIPTION: "ALTe, LLC is an automotive supplier engaged in
engineering, development, assembling and integrating of
electro-mechanical automobile components and software to create
Series Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (SPHEV) and pure electric
vehicle powertrains. These powertrain systems deliver dramatic fuel
economy improvements on the order of 60-200% when used in high
mileage fleet applications. ALTe has targeted fleet applications, as
the normal passenger car market does not drive enough miles per year
to receive financial payback on the incremental cost incumbent in a
hybrid or electric powertrain system."

"ALTe is positioning itself to be a "black box" turnkey system that
is the "Intel Inside" for hybrid vehicles in the transportation
industry. We plan to start production in the USA, but already have
interest in 3 other countries and have low cost solutions that can
work for developing nations. The company business plan is divided
into two phases: initially we will be producing powertrain systems
"kits" for use in the retrofit of used vehicles from normal internal
combustion engine based vehicles to new series PHEV based vehicles.
In the second phase, we will use these new Series PHEV powertrains
installed in a rolling lightweight chassis to serve as the foundation
for new families of vehicles serving the fleet and niche vehicle industry."

CEO: "We are very excited to unveil our new prototype vehicle at this
important industry event," said John Thomas, CEO of ALTe LLC. "Though
the prototype displays our technology as the powertrain system
replacing a 4.6L gasoline V8 for the Ford F-150, the system can be
applied to several vehicle types running a variety of fuels. This is
due to the 'plug-and-play' modularity of our system, which enables
the powertrain to expand or contract depending on the vehicle type.
We believe our technology will lead the revolution of sustainable mobility."

MICHIGAN GOVERNOR: "We're pleased that ALTe has chosen Michigan and
Auburn Hills for its new assembly facility, potentially generating
more than a thousand new jobs in southeast Michigan," said Governor
Jennifer M. Granholm. "This project further boosts our ongoing
efforts to diversify the state's economy, and shows that businesses
are continuing to choose Michigan because of our highly-skilled
workers and competitive business climate."

COST BENEFITS: "uniquely ambitious in terms of timing and scale, with
plans to launch in Q4 2011 and ramp up to 90,000 powertrains/year
soon afterwards. The cost of retrofitting to ALTe's REEV powertrain
is offset quickly by fuel savings in fleet vehicles driven 50,000
miles per year or more. The "payback" can be as short as one year.
Furthermore, many corporate, regional and local fleet owners and
operators are being forced to continue to use their current fleet as
their replacement fund budgets have been drastically reduced. ALTe
offers them, for the first time ever, a feasible option to extend the
life of their fleet vehicles for several years where they also
benefit from doubled fuel economy at an affordable incremental cost."

MARKETS: "ALTe will not be competing for a percentage of the new car
market (11 million vehicles projected in 2010). The Company will be
retrofitting a fraction of the 107 million light- medium trucks, many
of which are in fleets in companies like SoCalEd, AT&T, Verizon and
FedEx. Essentially, we are targeting 6.9% of the commercial fleet
market or 1.36% of the commercial vehicle market. In addition, there
are nearly 500,000 non-tactical military vehicles and ALTe is in
discussions with the US Army TARDEC group to convert some of those vehicles."

JOBS: "ALTe will be increasing local employment as it engages many
suppliers to produce ALTe designed motors, generators, controller,
battery boxes, high voltage cables and high voltage chargers. The
State of Michigan Economic Development Office estimates a 3.67 times
multiplier for the ALTe 400 new direct jobs created resulting in a
potential of 1,468 new jobs in the supply base and local community.
At its peak volume, ALTe will be procuring $1.6B of parts from the
supply base on an annual basis. The hybrid and electric supply base
for ALTe is very excited and is organizing quickly. Evidence of this
is demonstrated with Letters of Intent signed or in process with
major suppliers such as A123 Systems, Dow-Kokam, Remy Motors, Nugen
Motors, EE Trex charger inverters, Methode Electronics,
Fiat-Chrysler, and others."

CALCARS TECH LEAD RON GREMBAN'S COMMENTS:

The conversion process consists of replacing most of a vehicle's
whole drivetrain with its modular series hybrid system (like that in
the Chevy Volt "extended range electric vehicle"). It can be sized
for vehicles from pickup truck size on up through medium-sized
trucks, vans, and light buses. Components/processes:

* ENGINE: up to 5.4L gas or Diesel is replaced with a 2.0L or 3.3L
gas engine driving one or two 82 kW permanent magnet (PM) generators.
* AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSION: kept but re-tuned, with the torque
converter removed to enable 90+% efficiency); the motor/generators
connect to wheels through the transmission.
* ACCESSORIES: retained but electrically driven.
* MOTOR/GENERATORS: 2-3 82 kW PM, the same ones used for the
engine-generator set.
* BATTERY: 15-70 kWh Li-ion battery pack, depending on vehicle size,
for up to 52 miles of pure electric (EV) driving per charge.
* OPERATION: Vehicle is driven as an EV until the battery is
depleted, then the engine is started to keep the battery from further
discharge. The engine is not mechanically connected to the wheels.
* PROJECTED FUEL ECONOMY: As a hybrid -- after a 40-50 mile
all-electric range -- mileage expected to improve by 55-130% over the
original vehicle (25-32 MPG vs. 14-16 MPG for an unconverted Ford F-150).
* ATTENTION TO DETAIL, including a liquid battery cooling system, and
additional weight of as little as 200 lb.
* CONVERSION COSTS of as little as $21k per vehicle.

RON COMPARES ALTe WITH HEVT: Previously we've highlighted the
prototype produced by Chicago-based Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Technologies http://www.hevt.com . This F-150 retrofit uses a
different design. Below is a similar description (with a caveat that
HEVT is not nearly as far along as ALTe in designing a vehicle that
can be efficiently and economically mass-produced), followed by Ron's
general comments. HEVT's product is a series/parallel conversion:

* ENGINE, TRANSMISSION, AND ACCESSORIES: retained as is (this means
the engine must start periodically until the accessories are
electrified in a later version).
* MOTOR/GENERATOR: added behind and directly powering the
differential, allowing EV driving with a stopped or idling engine (no
transmission in the EV drive path increases mechanical EV efficiency
but results in higher motor torque requirements and potentially lower
motor efficiency).
* BATTERY: Li-ion, sized as needed (approx. 20 kWh for 40-mile F-150 EV range).
* OPERATION: Vehicle is driven as an EV until the battery is
depleted, with the engine running accessories as needed; then the
vehicle drives as a hybrid.
* PROJECTED FUEL ECONOMY: As a hybrid -- after a 30 mile all-electric
range -- expected improvement of 30% (current) - 60% (next
generation), (20-26 MPG vs. 14-16MPG for an unconverted Ford F-150).
* CONVERSION COSTS in high volumes are projected to be around
$15,000, lower than for ALTe, as the engine is not replaced and only
a single motor/generator is required.
* PRODUCTION ENGINEERING: HEVT has not yet embarked on this process,
which will affect design and costs
* CONTROLS: Coordinated engine, transmission, and motor/generator
control is very complex and difficult (much more so than for a series
hybrid). This is HEVT's specialty.

Technologically, each method has advantages and disadvantages. Though
comparisons also involve general differences between series and
series/parallel PHEVs, my previous investigations have led me to
conclude, despite strong claims by each technology's proponents, that
the theoretical differences in efficiency between the two
architectures may be eclipsed by implementation details and
optimization. Replacing the engine (as does ALTe) allows downsizing,
fine tuning, and manufacturing control of the whole drivetrain for
efficiency and emissions. But it also entails the expense of a new
engine and the mechanical systems to make it fit. If all but the
basic concepts were equal (which they aren't), ALTe conversions could
be expected to be both more expensive and more effective than HEVT conversions.

MEDIA COVERAGE: In addition to a brief story (with graphics) at Green
Car Congress
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/03/alte-f150-20100312.html you
can read the Forbes profile, "One Energy Startup's Tireless Quest For
Capital" at
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1228/entrepreneurs-alte-hybrid-trains-taxis-pl\
ug-needed.html.
Excerpts:

Chief Executive John Thomas, a 47-year-old mechanical engineer and
former head of the Michigan sedan program at electric-car maker
Tesla, is expansive about Alte's potential. Consider, he says, the
13,500 sedan cabs in New York City, plus another 30,000 livery
vehicles, mostly Lincoln Town Cars. "We want to replace the drive
trains of every one of them," he declares. Retrofitting just a tiny
fraction of the entire U.S. fleet inventory--including shuttle buses,
commercial vans, limousines, police cars and post office
trucks--could generate $2 billion in annual revenue by 2013. Then
there's the global market: Thomas has met with the Moroccan
government about converting that country's 100,000 taxis. He's also
salivating over a Spanish mandate to have 1 million of the country's
cars running hybrid or electric-drive trains by 2014.

Alte's leaders include cofounders W. Jeff DeFrank and Nam Thai-Tang.
Both men came from the engineering ranks at Tesla and, before that,
Ford Motor, where Thai-Tang logged 19 years. DeFrank also worked on
nuclear reactors for the Navy. Chief Financial Officer Roy S. Clauss
spent 30 years as an investment banker on Wall Street. Early this
month ex-Chrysler chief executive Thomas LaSorda signed on as an
investor and board member (he won't disclose the size of his stake).
Says LaSorda: "I think the plan here will succeed because they're not
going after markets that the big car companies target."

WATCH FOR MORE NEWS from ALTe and other ICE conversion startups, and,
we hope, some of the larger integration firms. For more, see the two
photos and two graphics at
http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html -- and be sure to catch
the animation of its 13-hour installation process on ALTe's products
page http://www.altellc.com/product.php .

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

Building on its extraordinary Electrification Roadmap issued in January, the
Electrification Coalition now has added the numbers to its analysis and
proposals -- including, by 2030 1.9 million new jobs, improved household
incomes, and of course, much less money spent on fossil fuels. Below we print
the press release for the report, which will soon be available at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org. "The Economic Impact of the
Electrification Roadmap" analysis lays the groundwork for the coalition to work
with Congress to introduce bipartisan proposals to advance the bill's goals,
probably as part of any broad environmental/energy legislation that's enacted in
the next year. (That's what happened with the DRIVE Act two years ago.)

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

Before we get to the press release below, as we noted when we summarized the
EC's original proposals at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1088.html , the
missing piece from that report  is the further social/economic/environmental
benefits we'd gain if the acceleration of new vehicle introduction were
accompanied by a strong push to convert millions of existing gas guzzlers. The
new EC analysis, derived from the assumptions of that report, doesn't quantify
or factor in benefits that could be available even sooner if our nation commits
also to conversions. CalCars, other advocates, and the emerging companies
providing retrofits, still have the challenge of placing that strategy
front-and-center in all discussions of options and outcomes.

MAKOWER ON ICE CONVERSIONS: This week, another key analyst, Joel Makower,
long-time cleantech expert, consultant, and author, highlights that strategy as
part of his discussion at his blog, "Two Steps Forward Sustainable Business,
Clean Technology, Green Marketplace," in a piece called "When It Comes to Cars,
ICE is Still Hot,"
http://makower.typepad.com/joel_makower/2010/04/when-it-comes-to-cars-ice-is-sti\
ll-hot.html . After citing all the potential improvements in internal combustion
efficiency, he asks, "And then there's the question of what to do with the
current stock of cars on the road. Is there a way to retrofit them with enhanced
technologies, or to convert them to hybrids, plug-ins, or other EV
technologies?" Citing the CalCars BigFix campaign, he says "It's a market that's
scarcely tapped, with blue-sky potential -- literally and figuratively." He
asks, "What will it take to turn this potential into real business -- and jobs?
It won't likely happen through individual consumer purchases of these upgrades.
More likely will be fleet buyers -- the thousands of government agencies, taxi
companies, rental car companies, and corporations that own hundreds or thousands
of vehicles — that will create a demand for ICE upgrades and retrofits." His
questions, "But what will motivate them? Tax incentives? High gas prices? A
price on carbon? Public pressure?" make clear the startup companies will require
broad support to move as quickly as our society needs.

PRESS RELEASE:  NRG's David Crane Presents Results of Electrification Coalition
Economic Impact Study / Analysis Helps to Pave Way for Bipartisan Legislation

WASHINGTON, April 8 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Electrification Coalition
(EC) today released a long-term macroeconomic analysis of the policy proposals
put forward in its November 2009 Electrification Roadmap.  The paper finds that
the U.S. economy would benefit substantially over the long term from
implementation of the EC policy package.

"In short, the economic modeling shows that the electrification policy proposed
by the Coalition offers significant and widespread benefits to the American
people, including reducing our federal budget and trade deficit,"
Electrification Coalition member David Crane, President and CEO of NRG Energy,
said in a speech given at the National Press Club.  "I believe we are on the
cusp of the next great tectonic shift in our economy, one that will transform
the way we use energy both in our homes and on the road."

The Electrification Coalition, a group of business leaders representing the
entire value chain of an electrified transportation sector, released their
Electrification Roadmap in November 2009. The plan called for the creation of
localized concentrations of electrification, geographic areas in which all of
the elements of an electrified transportation system are deployed, thus
providing a crucial first step toward moving electrification beyond a niche
product into a dominant, compelling, and ubiquitous concept.

Shortly after releasing the Roadmap, the Coalition commissioned the
Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland and Keybridge
Research to study the long-term economic effects of their policy proposals. A
summary of the study's findings is attached.

Summary of Findings

The study being released today finds that the EC policy package results in
significant economic benefits for the United States over the simulation period:

By 2030, total employment would increase by 1.9 million jobs. Among the
interesting industry effects: by 2030 there would be 560,000 more manufacturing
jobs, 276,000 more jobs in travel and tourism, and 73,000 more jobs in
professional services. Employment in the motor vehicle industry (including motor
vehicle parts) would be about 106,000 jobs higher than the base. Employment in
the industries that supply key electric and electronic components to electric
vehicles would increase by 112,000 jobs.

Over time, the federal budget deficit would improve as a result of the policies
in the Roadmap. Because of the higher levels of income and GDP resulting from
the policies, the U.S. federal budget deficit would improve by a cumulative
(2010 to 2030) $336 billion, net of policy costs.

By 2030, the typical U.S. household's annual income would rise by $2,763 (2008
dollars). This represents an increase of about 2.2 percent.

Cumulatively, during the 2010-2030 period, households would experience an
increase of $4.6 trillion (2008 dollars) in aggregate income­money that can be
saved or spent on other goods and services.

By 2030, the typical U.S. household would spend less per year directly on energy
for transportation. The combination of higher income and less spending on energy
means that the typical household would be able to enjoy about $3,687 (2008
dollars) more in consumption of goods and services (or personal savings).

U.S. crude oil and petroleum product imports would fall sharply, by 3.2 million
barrels per day by 2030. Cumulatively, between 2010 and 2030, the United States
would import nearly 11.9 billion fewer barrels of foreign oil. This compares to
estimated reserves of 4.3 billion barrels for Prudhoe Bay, and slightly less
than 30 billion barrels for total U.S. proved reserves.

By 2030, the U.S. trade balance would improve by about $127 billion dollars
(2008 dollars).

World demand for oil would fall, leading to lower world oil prices. Outside
commodity price experts have estimated that the price of oil would be almost 7
percent lower by 2030 than it would be without the EC policy package.

The U.S. economy will be stronger and more resilient. The Electrification
Coalition policies ­once fully implemented ­would mitigate roughly one-third of
the economic losses caused by a future oil price shock. By 2025, the EC policies
would prevent the loss of 1.4 million jobs in the first year alone of a price
shock-induced recession.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nrgs-david-crane-presents-results-of-ele\
ctrification-coalition-economic-impact-study-90247547.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

Today we offer some encouraging news: significant
progress from the companies that are working on
practical solutions to convert millions of
gas-guzzlers to run partly or entirely on
electricity. The new plug-in cars that will begin
to arrive later this year, while long-awaited and
much-welcomed, won't make much of a dent in our
fuel consumption for over 15 years. If we want to
do something sooner, we need to fix" tens of
millions of the 250 million internal combustion
vehicles on U.S. roads, and even more of the 900
million vehicles in the world. Read on for the
latest developments that set the stage for a
commitment to this strategy -- first by
advocates, then by legislators and elected
officials. In contrast to CalCars' seven-year
campaign for PHEVs, this time, we expect that the
needed incentives and other commitments will come
mainly because companies' new announcements of
products, partnerships and customers are making this a reality.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

Of the retrofit companies profiled at our page,
"Join the Campaign to Electrify World's 900+
Million Vehicles (as many as possible, to plug-in
hybrid or all-electric)"
http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html , we
have good news from two: a first shipment from
REV; a new facility and a significant meeting in
Washington from ALTe -- we can expect to hear
much more from them in the coming months.

RAPID ELECTRIC VEHICLES DELIVERS CONVERTED FORD
TO FIRST FLEET CUSTOMER: Green Car Congress
reports the SUV has a 160-kilometer range
(99-mile), a top speed of 144 km/h (89 mph), and
charge time is 3.8 to 5 hours at 240V.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/04/burlingtonhydro-20100423.html

See Burlington Hydro's press release at
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/04/23/burlington-hydro-gets-a-rev-for-its-gridsma\
rtcity-initiative-w/
. "The REV 300 ACX is not a hybrid nor is it a
concept vehicle -- it is a fully electric vehicle
that will be in daily use in the Burlington Hydro
and GridSmartCityTM fleet," said Jay Giraud,
REV’s CEO and president See REV's press release
at
http://www.rapidelectricvehicles.com/Documents/Rev%20Release%20for%20BHI%20Event\
.pdf
and a video at http://www.rapidelectricvehicles.com/media-coverage.html .

ALTe OPENS NEW FACILITY: We described this
emerging company http://www.altellc.com at length
in March at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1095.html .
Now it's moving ahead rapidly, opening a 185,000
square foot headquarters in April. Here are
excerpts from the report, "Electric vehicle
converter has connections to go far," by Brent
Snavely in the Detroit Free Press at
http://www.freep.com/print/article/20100418/BUSINESS/4180461/Electric-vehicle-co\
nverter-has-connections-to-go-far
:

"ALTe aims to turn existing commercial fleet
vehicles already on the road into plug-in
hybrid-electric vehicles. [CEO John] Thomas said
ALTe is targeting used commercial vehicles that
are two to four years old and whose mileage has
exceeded the warranty….ALTe's plug-in hybrid
electric powertrain is expected to power a
vehicle for about 40 miles on a single charge
before a gasoline engine kicks in to recharge the
battery. Vehicles should be able to travel about
400 miles without refueling. ALTe's system can
improve fuel efficiency by 80% to 200%. ALTe
already has a $240-million [four-year] purchase
order for about 12,000 powertrain kits with a
company called Gulfstream Coach for airport shuttle buses.

"In February, ALTe secured $8.4 million in state
tax credits from the Michigan Economic
Development Corp. The company also is seeking a
$101-million loan from the U.S. Department of
Energy and is in the middle of a review process.
What's more, former Chrysler President Thomas
LaSorda and former Chrysler sales executive
Steven Landry are both on ALTe's board of
directors and their consulting firm, LaSorda
Group, is an investor. Landry said LaSorda Group
invested in ALTe because they liked the company's
business model as well as the background of ALTe's founders."

FOUR-MINUTE CNN interview by Al Velshi with ALTe
Chief Technology Officer Jeff DeFrank at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_U4uIFYttI .

MR. THOMAS GOES TO WASHINGTON: Here's a report by
ALTe CEO John Thomas on a key meeting in DC May 5
that brought together CEOs from multiple
cleantech companies and shows how the company is
delivering its message that it's heading into a giant business opportunity:

"The Senate Clean Energy Jobs Bill Steering
Committee includes roughly 15 Senators. Sen.
Bingaman and others were supportive of John
Doer's initiative to place a carbon tax to
accelerate adoption and fund these programs with
up-front cash. Sen. Boxer was excited about what
we were doing. I met other staffers and CEOs. We
started the meeting with roughly 15-20
CEO/Chairmen of for-profit companies mixed with
industry associations. Sen. Reid opened, asking
for help to get a bill passed so we don't
continue to have oil spills and other unnecessary
costs to the budget and society.

"Sen. Stabenow called on Mary Ann Wright from
Johnson Controls and myself and gave a little
Intro on our behalf.  Afterwards, I gave a very
brief explanation of our technology and business
model. The room of CEO/Chairman and approx 10
Senators heard that we are ready now to annually
convert 90,000 vehicles of the existing 108
million PSVs (pickups, SUVs and vans) on the road
today starting with fleets where it makes
financial sense, and that ALTe will be the
catalyst for massive job growth in the EV and
hybrid industry and the larger V2G ecosystem.

"At a subsequent meeting, we explored ways to
develop a big and sustained push for ALTe and the
industry over a period of six months to encourage
legislators to support these initiatives and the
public in the US to finally 'get it.'"

ALTe's NEW BROCHURE BOLSTERS THE CASE: We urge
you to read ALTe's new four-panel brochure that
describes its vision, its technology, and
provides an illuminating cost-benefit analysis.
It shows paybacks in two-to three years for
multiple vehicle types that are driven 50,000
miles a year (frequent for fleets), and shows
scenarios based on gas prices at different
levels. The projections assume these vehicles
will be eligible for federal tax credits
equivalent to those provided to large-battery EVs
and PHEVs. Far smaller conversion credits are now
in the law, making this a central goal for ALTe
and CalCars. Download it at
http://www.calcars.org/altellc-brochure-may2010.pdf
--I t's easy to read on-screen but when printed
on a letter-sized sheet the type is small.


--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

Over 20 more carmakers are falling into line with plans for PHEVs --
and those that aren't are doing EVs. Below our list, you'll also find
info on this weekend's Maker Faire, two big plug-in conferences,
PHEVs in airplanes, Joe Romm's new book, and other media items,
including our updated home page.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

We'll soon update our list at our Automakers Page
http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html . See also information roundups
at http://www.greencarcongress.com/plugins/ and
http://www.pluginamerica.org/vehicles/ . Some of these are showcased
in a slide show at The New York Times website
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2010/05/09/automobiles/20100509-plugin.html
complete with links to additional information on the vehicles. Here
are our updates, alphabetically:

* AUDI: A1 Sportback or e-tron concept vehicles may be introduced
first in Europe.
* BMW: Vision PHEV concept of 2009 now headed for production in 2013.
* BYD: F3DM may be introduced in US in 2011.
* CHRYSLER: Following its integration with Fiat, proceeding with its
Department of Energy-sponsored demonstration project with 140 Ram
pickup truck PHEVs.
* CITROEN: Revolte (concept).
* DAIMLER: Mercedes Benz Blue Zero and S500 (concepts).
* FISKER: Karma now scheduled for 2011.
* FORD: Escape SUV now set for 2012; C-MAX compact multi-activity
vehicle in Europe by 2013.
* GM: Chevy Volt MPV5 (crossover concept).
* HYUNDAI: Blue Will concept car aimed at 2012.
* JAGUAR LAND ROVER: Range_e four-wheel drive diesel in 2013-2015 and
a possible XJ PHEV (Tata owns JLR).
* KIA: The Ray concept is part of its EcoDynamics project.
* MITSUBISHI: The PX-MiEV aims for production in 2013,
electrically-driven rear wheels giving four-wheel drive capability.
* PEUGEOT: plug-in diesel hybrid in 2012.
* PORSCHE: The 918Spyder (concept) adds a 16-mile all-electric range
to a powerful sports car.
* PROTON: Malaysian manufacturer shows multiple series PHEV concepts,
with its subsidiary, Lotus.
* SUZUKI: Swift concept now going to Japanese dealers for testing in fall 2010.
* TOYOTA: Prius Plug-in around 2012.
* VOLKSWAGEN: The Golf Blue-E-Motion moved from concept to a 2013
date for sale in the U.S; TwinDrive (concept).
* VOLVO: plans diesel series PHEVs in 2012.


IF YOU'RE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, COME TO THIS WEEKEND'S MAKER FAIRE.
Heaven for do-it-yourselfers, benign hackers, and open-source
acolytes, May 22-23 in San Mateo, CA http://www.makerfaire.com/ . The
entire Maker Faire event is unique, indescribable and inspiring. You
and your family will have no trouble spending a few hours or a whole
day or two! For the fifth time, CalCars presents live hybrid
conversions (since 2006 in California, plus 2007 in Houston). This
year, Berkeley's 3ProngPower.com again runs the show: see
http://makerfaire.com/pub/e/3457 . If you're a plug-in advocate, you
can help educate the interested throngs, and see other plug-in
projects at the Faire.

PLUG-IN CONFERENCES: Sign up to exhibit at or attend the main North
American events on plug-in vehicles:

* PLUG IN 2010 July 26-29 in San Jose, CA, the third annual industry
conference and expo, organized by The Electric Power Research
Institute and Silicon Valley Leadership Group: See the preliminary
agenda and register at http://www.plugin2010.com

* EV 2010 VE September 13-16 in Vancouver, British Columbia,
organized by Electric Mobility Canada/Mobilite electrique Canada. See
the preliminary agenda and register at
http://www.emc-mec.ca/ev2010ve/en/program.html .

PROVOCATIVE, HARD-HITTING BOOK ON CLIMATE AND CLEAN ENERGY: "Straight
Up: America's Fiercest Climate Blogger Takes on the Status Quo Media,
Politicians, and Clean Energy Solutions" is by Joseph Romm, physicist
and former US Department of Energy official. His <Climate Progress
www.climateprogress.org> is often described as the most influential
blog on climate change policy. There he frequently cites
transportation electrification, and this book includes almost 20
pages on what he calls a "core solution." Order it via
http://www.calcars.org/books.html .

PHEVS IN AIRPLANES? YES! Most people assume it's impractical with
today's technology. It turns out, as was the case with cars a few
years ago, "today's technologies are good enough to get started."
Some far-sighted people are getting ready to design prototypes.
CalCars' Ron Gremban is adding his engineering/flying/battery
experience. (By the way, if you're going to the Advanced Automotive
Battery Conference Orlando, Florida, May 17-21, you can find him
there via the CalCars contacts page). A column by aviation
entrepreneur George Bye calls on the Federal Aviation Agency and
others to start getting ready now for the next evolution of planes.
That's at Beyond The Edge
http://www.beyondtheedge.org/aerospace/putting-hybrid-engines-in-planes
. This new organization also features CalCars' perspective on ICE
conversions: http://www.beyondtheedge.org/automotive/the-4-cent-mile/.

DAN NEIL, OUR FAVORITE AUTOMOTIVE COLUMNIST, was at the LA Times
2003-2009. He wrote "Running on Empty," a cover magazine story about
our Prius conversions in 2005
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/85.html  and
http://www.calcars.org/runningonempty-latimes.pdf ,  spoke about
plug-in cars at several events, famously called on GM management to
resign, and won a Pulitzer Prize. He recently moved his Rumble Seat
column to the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal, where his
first reviews, ranging from a high-end Rolls Royce, to a small Ford,
with stops at Jaguar and Porsche, are lively masterpieces of
entertaining journalism, chock-full of funnys, gonzo-style, and
serious insights. Later this year, we think he'll have a blast when
he gets behind the new plug-ins! Find his columns at
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-autos-automotive.html .

CALCARS HOME PAGE UPDATE: We've modified the three paragraphs on our
opening page to reflect our new focus on "The Big Fix" (while we
continue to work on ensuring successful PHEV commercialization).
These eight sentences are our "elevator pitch." Please forward it to
anyone who wants to know about PHEVs and why they should spread the
word or donate to CalCars at http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html :
"Plug-In Hybrids Use Cleaner, Cheaper, Domestic Energy: CalCars is a
non-profit startup of entrepreneurs, engineers, environmentalists and
consumers. Since 2002, we've promoted plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) with
large batteries. Local miles are powered partly or fully by
electricity from standard plugs, and liquid fuel provides infinite
range. PHEVs tackle energy security, jobs and global warming -- all
at once. We built the world's first plug-in Prius using today's
technologies and infrastructure. We helped spark a successful
campaign to bring PHEVs to market and gain incentives. In 2009, we
declared victory as mass production of PHEVs starts with the Chevy
Volt. Now we promote safe, affordable, warrantied conversions of
large gas-guzzlers to PHEVs and EVs. A new global industry can
convert millions of vehicles long before we see large numbers of new plug-ins."

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We're in the middle of a series of races among carmakers to bring
plug-in cars to market. At the same time, the expert inventors,
engineers and teachers needed by this rapidly growing plug-in vehicle
industry are in short supply. One of those giants, Ali Emadi, has
just been hired away from of the Illinois Institute of Technology by
McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario (near Toronto). Emadi will
oversee the vast expansion of a program whose importance to the
university and to a nation 22% of whose exports are
automotive-related was underscored when the announcement came from
two top Canadian Ministers.  Dr. Emadi will establish a new
prestigious Canada Excellence Research Chair (the only one of 19
announced nationally, each funded with CA$10M, to focus on automotive
technology). He will also direct a CA$100M research institute. Read
more below, including our speculation about the University's interest
in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technologies Inc., the startup company
Emadi founded to convert large gas-guzzlers to plug-in hybrids.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

While we're sorry to see Emadi leave Illinois, we're both pleased and
intrigued that McMaster seems to like the idea of its new hire having
built a promising company while at IIT! At
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/New-Government-of-Canada-Investment-Attr\
acts-Top-Minds-to-Canadian-Universities-1261713.htm,
President and Vice-Chancellor Dr. Peter George went out of his way to
note that "Dr. Emadi's experience in spinning off start-up companies
from the university environment will be an invaluable resource to the
community."

Emadi founded http://www.hevt.com , which in 2007 converted a Ford
F-150 pickup truck into a 30-mile range PHEV as a proof-of-concept to
"fix" pickups trucks, vans and buses. The company projects that
conversions in high volume could sell for under $15,000, which if
paired with federal tax credits commensurate with the vehicles'
petroleum reduction and CO2 benefits, has an attractive business
model. The startup has not yet gone beyond seed-level funding and
continues to explore strategic partnerships. And it is not yet clear
if HEVT will transplant to Canada along with Emadi (when he leaves in
summer 2011), remain in Chicago, or relocate elsewhere in the Midwest
Auto Belt or California.

Those unfamiliar with Ali Emadi will appreciate his importance from
the official announcement below. We also note that he has often been
described as "The Andy Frank of Power Electronics." That's a
comparison to the professor generally acknowledged as the father of
the modern PHEV, who in the past two decades tirelessly proselytized
for PHEVs, retrofit multiple vehicles to PHEV at the University of
California at Davis, and himself co-founded
http://www.efficientdrivetrains.com  to commercialize his
intellectual property for both new vehicles and  internal combustion
retrofits. See a photo of Emadi and Frank with their prototypes, and
fans Andy Grove and Felix Kramer, at
http://www.calcars.org/photos.html .  (Full disclosure: CalCars
Founder Felix Kramer is an advisor to both HEVT and EDI, as discussed
at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/976.html .)

A  BACKGROUNDER FROM McMASTER reads in part:

RESEARCH SUMMARY: The harmful effects that vehicle emissions have on
both human health and the environment are leading to major shifts in
the global automotive industry. Engineers around the world are
competing to build the new, innovative models that will be the next
generation of cost-effective, energy-efficient cars.

At the forefront of this competition are plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Responding to the needs of a growing population of energy-conscious
consumers, plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to become one of the
main forms of transportation in Canada and across the globe by 2030.

One of the keys to engineering the next generation of hybrid electric
cars will be improving their powertrain, which transmits propulsion
power. Canada Excellence Research Chair in Hybrid Powertrain Dr. Ali
Emadi is at the leading edge of new developments in transportation
electrification, including advanced electrified powertrains; the
vehicle-to-grid interface of plug-in vehicles with Smart Grid
technology; powertrain components; hybrid battery/super-capacitor
energy storage systems; and adaptive vehicle control and power
management systems.

Emadi's research provides solutions for industry and environmental
policy-makers alike: it meets the current demands of the automotive
sector and will further the growth of Canada's economy, while
maintaining a strong position for the future of Canada's green
technology industry.

A rising star in his field, Emadi's work has already had exceptional
impact. His experience and knowledge aligns well with the existing
engineering expertise at McMaster University, where hybrid automobile
research and development is already heavily supported.

BIOGRAPHY: Emadi is internationally recognized for his in-depth
research on hybrid electric vehicle powertrains and electric drives.
He holds a PhD in electrical engineering, with a specialization in
power electronics and motor drives, from Texas A&M University in
College Station, Texas. He received a bachelor's and master's degree
in electrical engineering from Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

An extremely active researcher, Emadi has made significant
contributions toward the development of hybrid powertrains, power
converters, hybrid energy storage systems and powertrain adaptive
controls. He has authored over 250 publications and conference
papers, as well as several books, including co-authoring Vehicular
Electric Power Systems: Land, Sea, Air, and Space Vehicles; and
Modern Electric, Hybrid Electric, and Fuel Cell Vehicles:
Fundamentals, Theory, and Design .


THE MAY 17, 2010 PRESS RELEASE from
http://www.eng.mcmaster.ca/news/feature.html and
http://dailynews.mcmaster.ca/story.cfm?id=6732
Top U.S. Auto Hybrid Researcher Moving to McMaster / Ali Emadi named
Canada Excellence Research Chair in Hybrid Powertrain

Hybrid vehicle development in Canada has received a huge jolt of propulsion.

Professor Ali Emadi, a leading U.S. developer of electric powertrain
technology, has been appointed Canada Excellence Research Chair in
Hybrid Powertrain and will relocate to McMaster University.  The
appointment will see the construction of a new 15,000 square-foot
hybrid vehicle research facility at McMaster Innovation Park.

The appointment was announced today by federal Minister of Industry
Tony Clement and federal Minister of State for Science and Technology
Gary Goodyear.  It is one of 19 new Canada Excellence Research Chair
(CERC) appointments at 13 universities.  Each appointment receives up
to $10 million in federal funding over seven years.

"Canada has just been elevated another notch as a global leader in
developing hybrid vehicle technology," said Peter George, president
and vice-chancellor, McMaster University.  "The appointment
reinforces McMaster's leadership in automotive research and places us
at the forefront of hybrid vehicle research in this country."

"The Government of Canada recognizes the importance of supporting
leading-edge research and world-class researchers," said The
Honourable Tony Clement, Minister of Industry. "The CERC program
confirms Canada's standing as a global centre of excellence in
research and higher learning. This program supports our government's
commitment to ensuring Canada's future economic growth by investing
in innovation and research capacity in priority areas."

Prof. Emadi is currently the Harris Perlstein Endowed Chair Professor
of Engineering and director of the Electric Power and Power
Electronics Centre at the Illinois Institute of Technology in
Chicago.  He is also the founder and president of Hybrid Electric
Vehicle Technologies, Inc., a spin-off company of the Institute.

"The government's commitment to research through the CERC program and
McMaster's vision for leadership in sustainable automotive research
were too strong to resist," said Prof. Emadi.  "I am looking forward
to joining the strong network of automotive researchers in Canada and
helping to advance the development of hybrid vehicles."

Prof. Emadi's hybrid vehicle research facility will be part of a new
50,000 square-foot automotive resource centre being planned for
McMaster Innovation Park.  The Centre is to be located within the
current Careport building and bring together private and public
sector organizations to develop new technologies such as hybrid
engines, batteries and lightweight materials.

"Dr. Emadi's appointment adds to the critical mass of expertise being
assembled at McMaster for developing the next generation of
lightweight, energy-efficient vehicles," said Mo Elbestawi, vice
president research and international affairs.  "He will help attract
more like-minded researchers and entrepreneurs, and his experience in
spinning off start-up companies will be invaluable to the community."

Prof. Emadi's research encompasses the development of advanced
electric drive vehicles,  power electronics and motor drives,
vehicle-to-grid interface of plug-in vehicles with Smart Grid, hybrid
battery/super-capacitor energy storage systems, and adaptive vehicle
control and power management systems.

"One of Dr. Emadi's strengths is systems integration," said David
Wilkinson, dean of the Faculty of Engineering.  "He has the insight
and the knowledge of advanced technologies to shift hybrid vehicle
research and development to another level in Canada.  He can move
research closer to implementation."

Prof. Emadi is co-author of what is considered the world's leading
introductory textbook on hybrid vehicles: Modern Electric, Hybrid
Electric and Fuel Cell Vehicles: Fundamentals, Theory and Design. The
second edition was published in September 2009.

As part of his appointment, Prof. Emadi will also become director of
the McMaster Institute for Automotive Research and Technology, known
as MacAUTO, the coordinating body for automotive research and
education at the university.  It encompasses some 75 researchers in
engineering, science, business and other faculties involved in
initiatives valued at over $100 million in programs and infrastructure.

"His appointment is part of a strategy to introduce new programs and
train engineers in the area of power engineering and electronics,
control systems, Smart Grid, and related technologies," said
Wilkinson.  "McMaster will have the greatest concentration of
powertrain research anywhere in the country."

The CERC program was announced in Budget 2008 as part of the federal
government's Science and Technology Strategy to help build expertise
in strategic areas. Research conducted by the chairholders will focus
on the areas of environmental sciences and technologies, natural
resources and energy, health and related life sciences and
technologies, and information and communications technologies. The
CERC program is administered jointly by Canada's three research
granting agencies: the Social Sciences and Humanities Research
Council, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and
the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.  www.cerc.gc.ca


--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We usually focus on news about plug-in hybrids, while of course
celebrating all advances for electrifying transportation, but this is
very big news . The recently closed Fremont, CA factory was
established as the New United Motor Manufacturing Inc. joint venture
between GM-Toyota. Its re-opening to build
Tesla's  second-generation, seven-passenger all-electric sean is a
development to celebrate. Its implications extend to the future
directions of Toyota and to the position of California as a cleantech leader.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

Toyota's partnership with start-up Tesla can help pull Toyota rapidly
forward and give it the opportunity to regain some lost momentum.
Until now its only steps beyond conventional hybrids have to test a
few hundred 13-mile range Plug In Priuses and indicate its intentions
some day to sell PHEVs and EVs. And it will help Tesla (which had
previously received a $50M investment from Daimler, 40% of which was
then sold to an Abu Dhabi investment group), bring to market more
rapidly upscale, highly reliable, quality products.

We salute UC Berkeley Prof. Harley Shaiken and State Treasurer Bill
Lokyer for their Blue Ribbon Commission that made the case for
converting the NUMMI factory to build HEVs and PHEVs -- see the White
Paper at http://www.irle.berkeley.edu/press/20100310_nummi.html .
Still to be determined are how many of the skilled (and unionized)
NUMMI employees will be rehired, and how quickly. And having visited
the giant NUMMI plant and met with UAW members and officers
http://www.calcars.org/photos-people.html#JC , we would love in the
future to be involved in efforts to use part of the facility to
retrofit older Toyota vehicles into PHEVs and EVs.

The LA Times has an in-depth story at
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-auto-20100521,0,4035370.story ,
reviewing activity in California from Coda, Fisker and other
startups, positioning "California as a center of independent electric
automobile research, design and production, an industry that some
economists say could become an important driver of economic and
development and jobs in the state."

This development can also serve as a powerful rebuttal to the
efforts, spearheaded by two Texas oil companies Valero and Tesoro, to
halt California's Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), even before it
goes into effect next year. They claim it's bad for jobs -- and here
we have a high-profile example of "Green Jobs in the Clean Economy."
The oil companies expect to spend over $50 million to derail the
California program and thereby slow any progress for national
legislation on climate change or clean energy. So it's not just a
local California issue.We encourage you to learn more and get
involved. The coalition of defenders of AB32 have established
http://www.stopdirtyenergyprop.com as the starting point for the
campaign to defeat the oil companies' proposition.

THE GOVERNOR'S COMMENTS: Here's an excerpt from his press release
http://gov.ca.gov/press-release/15219 :

Gov. Schwarzenegger Joins Tesla and Toyota Officials to Announce
Historic Toyota-Tesla Partnership and Tesla's Acquisition of NUMMI Facility
Toyota to Invest $50 Million in Tesla and Partner to Manufacture
Electric Vehicles, Create Over 1,000 Green Jobs

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today joined President and Chief
Executive Officer of Toyota Motor Corporation Akio Toyoda, Co-Founder
and Chief Executive Officer of Tesla Motors Elon Musk and Lieutenant
Governor Abel Maldonado to announce an historic new partnership
between the automotive companies that will benefit California's
economy and environment. Toyota announced it will invest $50 million
in Tesla Motors and will partner with Tesla to manufacture electric
vehicles (EVs). Additionally, Tesla announced that it will acquire
the NUMMI plant in Fremont and begin production of its Model S EV in
2012. Today's action could create more than 1,000 green jobs in California.

"What we are witnessing today is an historic example of California's
transition to a cleaner, greener and more prosperous future. We
challenged auto companies to innovate, and both Tesla and Toyota
stepped up in a big way, not only creating vehicles that reduce
emissions and appeal to consumers but also boosting economic growth,"
said Governor Schwarzenegger. "Tesla, just a start-up company a few
years ago, will soon employ Californians in green jobs on a large
scale at the former NUMMI plant. In fact, Tesla's founding and
expansion in California is a direct result of our nation-leading
policies that support demand for green products and the companies and
people who produce them. I am thrilled with today's announcement and
can't wait to see what this partnership brings next."

THE JOINT TESLA/TOYOTA ANNOUNCEMENT is at
http://www.teslamotors.com/media/press_room.php?id=2509 and
http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/tesla-motors-and-toyota-motor-159048.aspx

Tesla Motors and Toyota Motor Corporation Intend to Work Jointly on
EV Development, TMC to Invest in Tesla

TESLA MOTORS, INC. (Tesla) and TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION (TMC) today
announced that they intend to cooperate on the development of
electric vehicles, parts, and production system and engineering support.

The two companies intend to form a specialist team to further those
efforts. TMC has agreed to purchase $50 million of Tesla's common
stock issued in a private placement to close immediately subsequent
to the closing of Tesla's currently planned initial public offering.

"I've felt an infinite possibility about Tesla's technology and its
dedication to monozukuri (Toyota's approach to manufacturing)," said
TMC President Akio Toyoda. "Through this partnership, by working
together with a venture business such as Tesla, Toyota would like to
learn from the challenging spirit, quick decision-making, and
flexibility that Tesla has. Decades ago, Toyota was also born as a
venture business. By partnering with Tesla, my hope is that all
Toyota employees will recall that 'venture business spirit,' and take
on the challenges of the future."

"Toyota is a company founded on innovation, quality, and commitment
to sustainable mobility. It is an honor and a powerful endorsement of
our technology that Toyota would choose to invest in and partner with
Tesla," said Tesla CEO and cofounder Elon Musk. "We look forward to
learning and benefiting from Toyota's legendary engineering,
manufacturing, and production expertise."

TMC has, since its foundation in 1937, operated under the philosophy
of "contributing to the society through the manufacture of
automobiles," and made cars that satisfy its many customers around
the world. TMC introduced the first-generation Prius hybrid vehicle
in 1997, and produced approximately 2.5 million hybrids in the twelve
years since. Late last year, TMC started lease of Prius Plug-in
Hybrids, which can be charged using an external power source such as
a household electric outlet. The company also plans to introduce EVs
into the market by 2012.

Tesla's goal is to produce increasingly affordable electric cars to
mainstream buyers -- relentlessly driving down the cost of EVs. Palo
Alto, CA-based Tesla has delivered more than 1000 Roadsters to
customers in North America, Europe and Asia. Tesla designs and
manufactures EVs and EV powertrain components. It is currently the
only automaker in the U.S. that builds and sells highway-capable EVs
in serial production. The Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than most
sports cars yet produces no emissions. Tesla service rangers make
house calls to service Roadsters.

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

Tuesday night, President Obama will speak to the nation about the
Gulf catastrophe. In a pre-response to that speech, having
successfully advocated for plug-in hybrids like the forthcoming Chevy
Volt, we propose that the President follow that speech up with a
"realistic and conservative" roadmap to halve our oil use in 10
years. We outline a second speech by the President, starting with, "I
am not willing to be the latest in a succession of Presidents telling
you we're going to end our addiction to oil. Finally, it's time to
begin. Oil is holding us all hostage, economically and physically. If
terrorists had poisoned 40% of our wetlands and 25% of our fisheries,
we wouldn't ask, 'How much will it cost to fight back?' The good
news? At last we have ways to get far within a few years, not over
decades! And it will cost much less than you think." See this posting
at Climate Progress,
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/13/drive-star-obama-speech-bp-spill-cut-oil-u\
se-in-half-by-2020/
, where you can comment on it. We urge other media and websites to
repost the full text or link to that URL and to
http:/www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html .

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

We know we eventually need to kick our addiction to costly, dangerous
fossil fuels. "Realists" say that's impossible for decades. We've
believed them, fantasizing we'd avoid calamities, ignoring science
that says we don't have decades. Clearly, that hasn't worked. Now are
we still stuck maintaining our addiction with clean needles, or, best
case, settling for methadone? What would detox and rehab look like?

We have a realistic transitional scenario that avoids an agonizing
withdrawal. We need persuasive and inspiring leadership for it to
happen. In the key area of transportation, we submit our Drive Star
proposal. For $100 million in one year, we'll demonstrate how to
rapidly reduce use of oil in transportation with safe, warrantied
retrofits of tens of millions gas-guzzlers. That will enable us in
just ten years for $100 billion, much of which the federal government
will get back, to cut U.S. oil use in half, by seven million barrels a day.

Tuesday night President Obama will address our nation. He'll start
with the oil catastrophe. He'll describe the heroic efforts to blunt
its deadly blows to citizens' communities and jobs, to businesses,
wildlife, and the Gulf. He'll express our hopes we can stop the
gusher. He'll talk about identifying the causes and compensating the victims.

When he proposes steps to improve oil industry safety, we hope he
won't say, "Let's make sure this never happens again." No one can
make that promise. That's why we need a second speech with a new strategy.

We've now in the crisis CalCars knew, when we began in 2002, would
some day arrive. (We expected it would come from higher prices or a
supply disruption -- we've all been surprised.) We're looking around,
asking, "How quickly can we start getting off oil?" We're happy we're
well on our way with plug-in cars. We now have a sprinkling of
promising companies working to get funded to convert gas-guzzlers.
That said, we aim to put this solution on the map -- only this time
in weeks, not in the eight years it took to win on plug-in hybrids.
For details on what we've called "The Big Fix" beyond the following,
see http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html -- and we'll continue
adding back-up info at CalCars-News and elsewhere.

The missing piece we dream President Obama will follow up with is an
emergency-response roadmap to a world where increasingly scarce and
costly oil is used only when needed. We've written what we hope he'll
say in a second speech, adding the details he'll give when he's
joined by business and technical experts at a briefing on Drive Star.
Here's our rough draft, which we're releasing as we refine the
concept -- we moved up our plans when we learned about the Tuesday
address. We ask our readers to help spread the word to
thought-leaders and strategists everywhere. We ask organizations to
move this realistic, conservative, and cost-effective approach to the
top of their talking points and priorities.

How President Obama Can Announce Drive Star to Cut Oil Use in Half by 2020

Today we are under attack. Admiral Thad Allen describes a Gulf under
siege. Oil is holding us all hostage, economically and physically. We
are defending our land and sea, our jobs and communities, against a
relentless enemy that's already hit four states hard -- so far. We
don't know what's to come -- or if, how, or when we can win. If
terrorists had poisoned 40% of our wetlands and 25% of our fisheries,
we wouldn't ask, "How much will it cost to fight back?" We'd put tens
of thousands of soldiers at risk and spend any amount to take out that enemy.

I am not willing to be the latest in a succession of Presidents
telling you we're going to end our addiction to oil. Finally, it's
time to begin. The good news? At last we have ways to get far within
a few years, not over decades! And it will cost much less than you
think. More about that in a moment.

We can't continue ever-riskier experiments to get oil from remote
locations. Even on land, getting oil from tar sands depletes water
and other resources and doubles oil's carbon footprint. And oil only
seems cheap. Its impacts are increasingly unaffordable. And it's
going to get more expensive at the pump and at every step once it's
extracted from the ground. In the U.S., and around the world, giant
transport ships, aging pipelines and sprawling refineries will
continue to fail -- and remain in the cross-hairs of terrorists -- as
long as they operate.

The only way to guarantee our victory -- the most realistic solution
-- is to reduce national and world demand for petroleum. That's
surely a conservative strategy in the fullest sense of the word:
protecting everything we value from change we can't control. So
tonight I'm announcing "Drive Star." At last we will begin our
recovery from fossil fuel addiction.

It's a 21st-century equivalent of what we did in 1942. When our
country was attacked at Pearl Harbor, no one believed we could build
30,000 planes and tanks in just one year. Well, America's auto
industry delivered over 100,000. And no one asked what it would cost.
We just had to do it. That helped us become the world's greatest
industrial power. If we can again succeed like that, in a decade,
we'll look back and know that we got a great deal: safer, healthier,
better lives, an economy no longer held hostage to
petro-dictatorships and blindered, monopolistic companies, and a
significant response to climate change.

Since our cars and trucks use almost two-thirds of the oil we buy,
the quickest way to cut oil use is to free transportation from its
grip. Over time, we can conserve by reducing the miles we drive. But
it will take decades to shift most freight from trucks to trains,
design walkable communities, shorten our commutes, and build better
mass transit and high-speed rail networks.

Meanwhile, we all still need to drive all the time. It helps that the
auto industry will be building more efficient new vehicles. And the
first plug-in cars mass-produced in the USA in a century will go on
sale this fall. That means we'll be powering some miles with
increasingly renewable electricity that isn't made from imported oil.
But even these new plug-ins will show up too slowly to have a big
impact on our oil consumption for two decades.

That's too long to wait to improve energy security, protect our
economy, and address climate change. Fortunately, if we just open our
eyes, the practical answer is right in front of us. It's under the
hoods of the 250 million vehicles we drive today. Using existing
technology, we can convert many of them into plug-in hybrids and
electric vehicles.

We've already decided we're going to fix already-built houses,
offices and factories that waste energy. We're about to enact the
"Home Star" and "Building Star" programs -- putting people to work on
"Cash for Caulkers" retrofits that will make buildings more
comfortable and cut owners' fuel costs.

Since vehicles are also part of what we've built, with bipartisan
support, we will enact a similar program: "Drive Star." "Cash for
Conversions" will start by fixing many of our 100 million trucks,
vans, and buses. They now gulp down one third of the oil we use.
About half of those big gas-guzzlers stay on the road a surprisingly
long time: 15 to 35 years. That's as long as many buildings, so
they're also worth a makeover. And these retrofits will also pay off,
for their owners, their communities, and our nation. We already
upgrade our computers. We can upgrade vehicles too.

Pioneering companies now have designs to turn gasoline- and
diesel-powered vehicles into all-electrics or plug-in hybrids,
depending on how they're built and the range their drivers need,. The
U.S. can lead in a new, profitable, global business opportunity.
Retrofit technologies are already good enough to install in large
vehicles. As batteries get cheaper and smaller, and motors get light
enough to fit inside wheels, we'll be able to upgrade smaller cars.
We won't need new power plants, since we have enough off-peak
electricity to recharge as many retrofits as we can build. And
magically, as more electricity comes from lower-carbon fuel sources,
our cars will get cleaner as they get older!

While we're fixing vehicles, we can also equip them with low-cost
real-time MPG indicators that show us how to save money and still get
to places quickly. We can add carbon filters to diesel trucks to get
rid of black carbon -- soot, which is another global health and
climate problem. Our effort will inspire other startups to accelerate
development of liquid fuels from algae and agricultural waste
products. These zero-carbon biofuels plus lower-carbon natural gas
will fuel plug-in hybrids when they drive beyond their electric
commuting range. And to reach our goal of cutting oil use 50%, we'll
also need one other step: end the use of 15% of our oil for heating.

   When they're mass-produced, conversions will cost under
$10-$15,000. That's a lot for anyone with an old car to pay up front.
Retrofitters can partner with energy service companies to finance
those costs, backed by federal loan guarantees. Payback will come
because an electric mile is up to five times cheaper than a petroleum
mile. So these retrofits will cost less to drive right away,
benefitting public, military, and private fleets, and individual drivers.

We'll add targeted incentives to jump-start this successor to the
$4,500 "Cash for Clunkers" program. Right now, buyers of new plug-in
cars get up to $7,500 in tax credits. For the first five million
vehicles, we'll match that for retrofit gas-guzzlers that displace an
equivalent amount of oil and are in shape to last 10 more years. As
high-volume production brings down their price, we can taper down the
incentive over a second five million.

$100 billion on retrofit loan guarantees and incentives is a lot of
money. Before we go all in, we'll start with a $100 million program
that entrepreneurs call "proof of concept." But let's realize:
defending our nation is never cheap. We've spent ten times that
hundred billion on wars since 9/11. A plan to convert vehicles has to
look beyond the immediate payback to take into account the real costs
and damages we'll avert.

Every day, we just hand over a billion dollars to foreign oil
suppliers. Drive Star will turn out to be a bargain. For less than we
pay for three months of foreign oil, we will catalyze quick retrofits
of over 50 million vehicles.

After our one-year test, in summer 2011, we'll be ready to create a
powerful new U.S. conversion industry. In communities everywhere,
tens of thousands of Americans will have important, well-paid jobs
fixing vehicles in commercial garages -- and in boarded-up auto
plants. Meanwhile, carmakers and dealers that sell high-efficiency
and plug-in cars will, for the first time, get a new revenue stream
from upgrading vehicles they've already sold.

Drive Star will prove that converting vehicles is profitable. A few
startups already make that case, and we expect big news from some of
them later this year. We'll enlist more companies to join this new
age of automotive innovation.

We Americans love to race. Since Charles Lindbergh won a $25,000
prize for his first transatlantic flight, we've seen again and again
how competition sparks innovation. We've just sponsored a $4 billion
"Race to the Top "for our schools. And ongoing public and private
contests in space and science show that creative inventors, engineers
and entrepreneurs can take giant leaps.

"Drive Star" starts with a modest but ambitious $100 million
challenge: Design a way to convert a popular vehicle. Make it
affordable, safe, drivable, eligible for certification and warranty,
and installable in high volumes. We'll pre-fund your prototypes.
We're in a hurry, so deliver your test vehicles in six months. Our
judges will come from the Departments of Energy and Transportation,
the Environmental Protection Agency, groups like the Society of
Automotive Engineers, the X Prize Foundation, Cleantech Open, the
Specialty Equipment Manufacturers Association, and carmakers and
suppliers. We'll recruit mentors to validate your business plans,
identify suppliers, and connect partners.

Early next year, we'll convene a kickoff summit in Michigan for
conversion companies, car and component makers, lenders, fleet
owners, and drivers to begin a national rollout of the best solutions.

Drive Star is our opportunity to lead the world in a new direction,
as U.S. companies export and license our solutions and work with
suppliers, manufacturers and installers to fix vehicles everywhere.
Because oil is a global fuel, our solution must spread
internationally or we'll just transfer the fossil fuel risks to the
air, water and economies at locations from which they will still
threaten everything that lives on our planet.

Every generation is called to step forward. One of our biggest
challenges is to clean up our oil mess -- and we can meet that
challenge. We have cleaner, cheaper, safer ways to drive everywhere.
With Drive Star, we have the motivation, the technology, and the
resources to cut our oil use in half in ten years . Yes, we can take
the first step!

See this posting at Climate Progress,
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/13/drive-star-obama-speech-bp-spill-cut-oil-u\
se-in-half-by-2020/
where you can comment on it. We urge other media and websites to
repost the full text or link to that URL and to
http:/www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html .

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

Here are some of resources we think can inform
and energize those who support this campaign.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
Backup material for posting:

VIDEOS WE'VE FOUND THOUGHT-PROVOKING OR MEANINGFUL:

RACHEL MADDOW'S "GET ME REWRITE:" Maddow's studio
and on-the-scene reporting from the Gulf since
April has been consistently illuminating. She
actually thinks as she observes, interviews, and
reports! On Wednesday, June 16 she gave  her
vision of the speech the President could have
delivered -- along similar lines to ours but
without our Drive Star proposal. Watch it at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWawFfUCMtY
(10:30) or read the transcript (it's 2/3 of the
way through the show) at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37760186/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/

JOHN STEWART: AN ENERGY-INDPEENDENT FUTURE: The
Daily Show's Stewart entertainingly and sadly
chronicled on June 16 the story of all the
Presidents who have said we need to get off oil.
You won't regret the eight minutes to watch it at
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future
(7:54)

"THE GIRL WHO SILENCED THE WORLD FOR FIVE
MINUTES:" In 1989, nine-year-old Severn
Cullis-Suzuki and several others founded The
Environmental Children's Organization. In 1992,
this 12-year-old's speech stunned the Rio Earth
Summit. Her message still matters -- speaking
about her world, she said,  "If you don't know
how to fix it, please stop breaking it." Watch
the moving speech at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQmz6Rbpnu0 .
(Suzuki, now 31 and an ethnobotanist, remains an environmental activist.)

"SOMEWHERE OVER THE GOLD COAST:" The
Environmental Defense Fund's mashup of a song
from Glee and the oil disaster at
http://blogs.edf.org/edfish/2010/06/17/glee-bpoildisaster/ (2:43) made us cry.

REINVENTING FIRE from the Rocky Mountain
Institute http://www.rmi.org/rmi/reinventingfire
(6:37) presents the broad opportunity to get off
fossil fuels. Video includes a CalCars plug-in hybrid.

INFORMATION ON FOSSIL FUELS

DRIVE STAR: Read many thoughtful comments among
the 41 responses to our posting at Climate
Progress at
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/13/drive-star-obama-speech-bp-spill-cut-oil-u\
se-in-half-by-2020/#comment-280502
including the final one by Ron Gremban, CalCars
Technology Lead, with whom we should have shared
the original byline. And the 37 comments at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/06/drivestar-20100614.html#comments

OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS: Two
analyses.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/05/30/peak-oil-addiction-solutions/
shows that 65% of the oil we use goes to
transportation (including air). (The use of oil
to make plastic actually could be seen as a
sequestration
strategy!)  http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Transportation beeaks it out in detail.

PHYSICS OF OIL SPILLS: MSNBC's "Oil on the water"
explains and shows examples of the eight
"weathering processes" that occur as oil remains
in water: spreading, evaporation, dispersion,
dissolution, emulsification, oxidation,
sedimentation, and biodegredation at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37517080/ns/disaster_in_the_gulf

WORLD"S LARGESTCOMPANIES: To get a sense of the
size of oil and gas companies, by profitability,
in 2009, they were the six top corporations in
the world
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000_Prof.html
. By sales, they weare six within the top 10
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000_Sales.html
. And by market capitalization (value), they
weare seven of the first 20
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/18/global-09_The-Global-2000_MktVal.html
. But wait -- these lists are primarily
"international oil companies" (IOCs). They
include only one or two "national oil companies"
(NOCs) owned by governments, which account for
52% of production and 88% of reserves. See the
list at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_oil_company
. Why is it so hard to find a unified ranking?

FUELS FROM HELL: Some of peoples' difficulty in
recognizing the importance of  getting off fossil
fuels may come from how we name and describe
them. Oil doesn't sound unfriendly, nor does
"natural" gas or "clean coal." In response to the
catastrophe, some observers have pointed out they
will never see a beach or ocean poisoned by
renewable energy. So this is a good time to
reprint part of our September 2008 review,
'Thomas Friedman's New Bestseller 'Hot, Flat &
Crowded' Touts Plug-Ins"
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/996.html :
'ONE PERSONAL NOTE: I'm also gratified that
Friedman elaborates on a concept from my wife, on
page 32, "To put it another way, the Industrial
Revolution gave a whole new prominence to what
Rochelle Lefkowitz, President of Pro-Media
Communications and an energy buff, calls 'fuels
from hell' -- coal, oil, and natural gas. All
these fuels from hell come from underground, are
exhaustible, and emit CO2 and other pollutants
when they are burned for transportation, heating
and industrial use. These fuels are in contrast
to what Lefkowitz calls 'fuels from heaven' --
wind, hydroelectric, tidal, biomass, and solar
power. These all come from above ground, are
endlessly renewable, and produce no harmful
emissions." (Geothermal doesn't exactly fit into
the scheme. The original categorization came from
a smart Swiss engineer, Ulf Bosselll, whom I met
in Iceland: http://www.efcf.com/­reports/­E23.pdf .)'

ARTICLES AND OTHER MEDIA:

BILL McKIBBEN: See the author and 350.org
co-founder call, "Mr. President, lead now on
fossil fuels" at
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/08/mckibben-bp-spill-climate-bill/ and
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-mckibben-global-warming-201\
00606,0,393201.story

Father's Day articles include an exchange between
ninth-grader Daniel Judt and his father Tony,
"Generations in the Balance"
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/opinion/20judt.html
and Joe Romm's perspective
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/20/fathers-day-essay/ .

PETROLCIDE T-SHIRT: Order the t-shirt with the
aggressive and thought-provoking image seen at
our guest posting
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/13/drive-star-obama-speech-bp-spill-cut-oil-u\
se-in-half-by-2020/
at http://www.demockratees.com/petrolcide.html

ON THE LIGHTER SIDE: widely appreciated cartoons
on the oil spill and climate change by Tom Toles:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/18/best-toles-cartoon-ever/
More Toles at http://voices.washingtonpost.com/tomtoles/

THE WHOLE ENCHILADA: $600 TRILLION That's the
value Richard Posner,
judge/professor/libertarian/author in 2004 in
"Catastrophe: Risk and response" assigned to the
human race. The concept is useful in talking to
those who doubt the threats of climate change --
if they agree there's a 10% chance they're wrong,
they may appreciate the wisdom of action as an
insurance policy for the globe. (Search for "$600
trillion extinction posner" to find links.)

GAS-GUZZLER CONVERSIONS

US EPA PROPOSES NEW RULES FOR CONVERSIONS: This
appears to be a positive development. See website
at
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/consumer/fuels/altfuels/altfuels.htm
and the writeups at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/05/epa-conv-20100507.html
and
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/05/epa-proposes-to-streamline-vehi\
cle-conversion-efforts-to-cng-and-other-alt-fuels.html
-- this program is currently being driven by
natural gas converters, who are proposing to
spend $50-$100,000 to convert large vehicles. But
the rules will apply to EV and PHEV conversions.
We encourage all companies considering entering
into this industry to submit their perspectives
before the July 23 deadline, and send copies of any testimony to us.

BLOGS CONSIDER CONVERSIONS: We commend cleantech
blogger Joel Makower for considering the issues
at
http://makower.typepad.com/joel_makower/2010/04/when-it-comes-to-cars-ice-is-sti\
ll-hot.html
. And Michael Hoexter situates conversions inside
a broad strategy at http://greenthoughts.us/2010/05/16/oil-independence/

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We've received very positive responses to our
June 13 "President's 2nd Message: We Can Cut Oil
Use in Half by 2020," where we predicted what the
President might say on June 15 and proposed how
he could follow that up. That posting was
published at Climate Progress and reprinted at
GreenCarCongress.com, EV World.com and
PlugInCars.com. As part of our efforts to
distribute it to print media and broadcast media,
we've now produced the much shorter version found
below. We're also distributing this broadly in
advance of our quick visit to Washington, DC next
Mon-Tues, June 28-29, as we continue to enlist
allies. If you haven't done so already, please
forward this to your networks. (The shorter
version necessarily omits some of the detail from
the first, so you can also point people to the
longer version at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1101.html .) Thank you!

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

President Obama's Followup Speech: Drive Star Can Cut Oil Use in Half by 2020

Today I announce Drive Star. It's a plan to cut
our oil use in half by 2020. If we can match the
efforts of our citizens and our industries after
Pearl Harbor, in a decade, we'll have gotten a
great deal: many new jobs, and safer, healthier, and better lives.

As long as we remain addicted to oil, we remain
at risk for another oil catastrophe, on land or
on sea. In the U.S. and around the world, no
matter how careful we all are, deep- and
shallow-water wells, giant tankers, aging
pipelines and sprawling refineries may fail --
and remain in the cross-hairs of terrorists -- as
long as they operate. The only way to guarantee
our nation's safety -- the most realistic
solution -- is to reduce national and global
demand for petroleum. That's conservative:
protecting everything we value from change we can't control.

Since our cars and trucks use almost two-thirds
of the oil we buy, the quickest way to do that is
to free transportation from its grip.
Fortunately, the answer is under the hoods of the
250 million vehicles we drive today. Using
existing technology, we can convert many into
plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

We've about to enact "Home Star" and "Building
Star" – and put people to work on "Cash for
Caulkers" retrofits to make buildings more
comfortable and cut owners' fuel costs. With
bipartisan support, we can add "Drive Star."

Our 100 million trucks, vans, and buses now gulp
down one third of the oil we use. About half stay
on the road a surprisingly long time: 15 to 35
years. That's long enough to merit a makeover.
Retrofitting these gas guzzlers will pay off, for
their owners, their communities, and our nation.
We already upgrade our computers. We can upgrade our vehicles, too.

The U.S. can lead a new, profitable, global
business. Pioneering companies can already turn
gas- and diesel-powered vehicles into
all-electrics or plug-in hybrids, depending on
how they're built and the range their drivers
need. As batteries get cheaper and smaller, and
motors get light enough to fit inside wheels,
we'll be able to upgrade smaller cars. We won't
need new power plants; we have enough off-peak
electricity to recharge as many retrofits as we
can build. As more electricity comes from
lower-carbon fuel sources, our cars will
magically get cleaner as they get older!

   Mass conversions will cost under $10-$15,000.
That's still a lot for old car owners to pay up
front. But retrofitters can partner with energy
service companies to finance these costs, backed
by federal loan guarantees. Since an electric
mile is up to five times cheaper than a petroleum
mile, retrofits will cost less to drive right
away, benefitting public, military, and private
fleets, and individual drivers.

We'll add targeted incentives to jump-start "Cash
for Conversions", a successor to our popular
$4,500 "Cash for Clunkers". Now, new plug-in car
buyers get up to $7,500 in tax credits. We'll
match that to retrofit the first five million
gas-guzzlers that displace an equivalent amount
of oil and can last 10 or more years. As
high-volume production lowers the price, we can
taper down the incentive over a second five million.

Every day, we hand over a billion dollars to
foreign oil suppliers. With Drive Star, by loan
guarantees and grants of less than we pay now for
three months of foreign oil, we'll catalyze quick
retrofits of over 50 million vehicles. When we do
the math, let's remember that defending our
nation is never cheap. If terrorists had poisoned
40% of our wetlands and 25% of our fisheries, we
wouldn't ask, "How much will it cost to fight
back?" We'd dispatch tens of thousands of soldiers and spend whatever it took.

By summer 2011, we'll be ready to create a
powerful new U.S. conversion industry. Tens of
thousands of Americans will have important, good
jobs fixing vehicles in commercial garages and
boarded-up auto plants. For the first time,
carmakers and dealers will get a new revenue
stream from upgrading vehicles they've already sold.

We Americans love to race. Since Charles
Lindbergh won $25,000 for his first transatlantic
flight, we've seen again and again how competition sparks innovation.

Let's start "Drive Star" with a $100 million
challenge: Design a way to retrofit a popular
vehicle. Make it affordable, safe, eligible for
warranty and high volume installation. Deliver
test vehicles in six months. Judges will come
from the Departments of Energy and
Transportation, the EPA, and groups like the
Society of Automotive Engineers, the X Prize
Foundation, Cleantech Open and the Specialty
Equipment Manufacturers Association.

Early next year, we'll convene a kickoff summit
in Michigan for conversion companies, car and
component makers, lenders, fleet owners, and
drivers to start a national rollout of conversion locations.

Drive Star is America's chance to lead the world
in a new direction. U.S. companies will export
and license our solutions and work with
suppliers, manufacturers and installers to fix
vehicles everywhere. Because oil is a global fuel
and its accidents affect us all, our solution must be, too.

Every generation is called on to rise to a
challenge. Ours is beating our addiction to oil.
With Drive Star, we have the motive, the means,
and the resources to cut our oil use in half in ten years! Together, we can.

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

At this momentous time, when news about plug-ins
is everywhere, when the U.S. and governments
worldwide are working to accelerate vehicle
electrification, and when the first mass-produced
PHEVs and EVs will be arriving in just a few
months, it's time for Plug-In 2010. Join us July
26-29 in San Jose, California, at this premier
event, organized by the Electric Power Research
Institute and Silicon Valley Leadership Group,
sponsored by domestic and international
automakers, utilities and others. There's still
time to sign up to attend (including sessions
with CalCars' Felix Kramer and Ron Gremban),
exhibit or attend the exposition; and come to
Public NIght July 27. The week before, on July
22, also in San Jose, Felix Kramer will encourage
entrepreneurs at the first Cleantech Open
conference to start businesses in the new
industry that will result (sooner or later) when
the "Big Fix"/Drivestar strategy for gas-guzzler
conversions takes off. Details follow on both events.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

PLUG-IN 2010 July 26-29 at the San Jose
Convention Center brings together for a third
time key players in the rapidly-expanding plug-in
vehicle industry. See the latest details and sign
up at http://www.plugin2010.com . Here's info on
the public night, followed by the pre-conference
workshops, plenaries and panels.

PUBLIC NIGHT: For those who can't attend the
entire conference, for $10 you can come to
Plug-In 2010 Public Night: July 27, 5:30-9:30PM.
Preview the very latest vehicles and other
plug-in technology innovations, then take part in
an entertaining and educational panel about your
role in shaping a plugged-in future. Tickets at
the door. Vehicles scheduled for display on the
exhibition floor (subject to change) include the
Chevrolet Volt, 2010 Ford Escape Hybrid,
Mitsubishi i MiEV, Nissan LEAF, 2010 Prius
Plug-In, smart fortwo electric drive, a
range-extended electric chassis, a plug-in hybrid
passenger car, and more. The all-star panel discussion features:

* Mark Duvall, Director, Electric Transportation,
Electric Power Research Institute, moderator
* Martin Eberhard, Co-Founder, Tesla Motors
* Bill Nye, "The Science Guy:"
* Jessie Deeter, Producer, "Who Killed the
Electric Car?" & "Revenge of the Electric Car"
* Chelsea Sexton, Founder, The Lightning Rod
Foundation & former General Motors EV1 Specialist

PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOPS: Monday July 26, 2-6PM,
sessions on "Battery Costs and Markets" and on
"Plug-In Readiness for Communities." See details
at
http://www.plugin2010.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49&Itemid\
=50

CONFERENCE: Plenaries and workshops are from 8AM
Tuesday, July 27 to noon Thursday, July 29. See
the plenary schedule at
http://www.plugin2010.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48&Itemid\
=49
. See the breakout sessions at
http://www.plugin2010.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=44&Itemid\
=45
or the PDF at
http://www.plugin2010.com/images/stories/agenda/breakout-sessions.pdf
. If you're attending, don't miss Ron Gremban's
presentation on retrofit strategies at the
Wednesday 3:30PM panel on "Designing PEVs:
Vehicle technology, costs, etc. for today and
tomorrow." That session also features Tom
Bradley, Colorado State University, and Jim
Winkelman, Efficient Drivetrains.  And at the
Tuesday 1:45PM breakout session on "Policies that
Impact Electric Vehicles: How new fleet and fuel
policies can work and their possible impacts on
EV and PHEV deployment," Felix Kramer will both
moderate and address ways to promote high-volume
validated conversions of gas-guzzlers. That panel
will feature Ron Minsk, Electrification
Coalition; Elise Keddie, California Air Resources Board; and Geoff Ryder, SAP.

This year, registrants also have tools to plan
meetings and other networking events. We hope
you'll sign up at http://www.plugin2010.com .

CLEANTECH OPEN NATIONAL CONFERENCE This is the
inaugural conference of this organization that
sparks, mentors, and recognizes entrepreneurs and
inventions in renewable and sustainable
technologies. See the list of Semifinalists in
this year's competition at
http://cleantechopen.com/app.cgi/entry_list/2010/2
CTO has now expanded to five regions in the U.S.
and is planning to go global.  The event is all
day Thursday, July 22, at the Doubletree Hotel in
San Jose, CA. Sign up and get details at http://cleantechopenconference.com .

Felix Kramer will speak about gas-guzzler
conversions at the 10:30-11:50AM panel, "The Road
Ahead: Legacy versus Efficiency," moderated by
"superlawyer" and Cleantech Open co-founder MARC
Gottschalk, and also featuring Michael Jackson,
TIAX; Paul McGrath, RideSpring; Edward West,
Mission Motors, and Joshua Goldman, Proterra, Inc.

Other panels at the event include Smart Power,
Renewable Energy, Green Buildings, and Energy
Efficiency. Focusing on spurring jobs in
cleantech, the day-long event explores:

* How can we accelerate the cleantech revolution?
* Which technologies hold the most promise—short-term and long-term?
* What does it take to spur cleantech entrepreneurship?
* How can we integrate cleantech into our economic policy?
* What are the best models to integrate public and private sectors?

Both events are listed with links at http://www.calcars.org/events.html .


--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

In this second of three posts today, we highlight several more conversion
companies in addition to those at our website; we note some media coverage of
our "Big Fix" strategy, and we point to an organization and an analyses that
help make the case for our approach.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

We'll be adding these to our list at http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html
by the weekend:
* AMP (ADVANCED MECHANICAL PRODUCTS) A Cincinnati, Ohio company converting GM
vehicles (Solstice, Sky, Equinox) to EV. http://www.AMPelectricvehicles.com
* LIBERTY ELECTRIC CARS A new British company in business selling conversions of
Range Rovers to all-electric vehicles with a 200-mile range.
http://www.liberty-ecars.com/
* ReVOLO: Two companies in India, Bharat Forge Limited
http://www.bharatforge.com and KPIT Cummins Infosystems Limited
http://www.kpitcummins.com have developed a low-cost add-on solution.
Announcement at http://blogs.strategyanalytics.com/auto/?p=114  and descriptions
at
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/06/15/retrofit-your-vehicle-with-hybrid-power-in-\
less-than-six-hours and http://www.carblogindia.com/revolo-hybrid-car-kit/
* WRIGHTSPEED has a game plan to go from sportscars to trucks
http://www.wrightspeed.com . Ian Wright, part of the founding team at Tesla,
built a proof-of-concept race car to demonstrate what could be possible in heavy
vehicles. He's talked about this for some time, but now he explains his planned
sequence leading to conversion kits for truck fleets that could save fleet
owners 3,000-5,000 gallons/year per truck with a three-year return on
investment.
http://earth2tech.com/2010/07/18/a-tesla-pioneer-paves-a-path-for-high-performan\
ce-hybrids/

BRITISH CAR SITE GUNG-HO FOR GAS-GUZZLER CONVERSIONS: The editor of The Green
Car Website asks, "Are car conversions the key in battle against oil use?" Faye
Sunderland picks up on many of our key points at
http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/07/20/are-car-conversion\
s-the-key-in-battle-against-oil-use-the-green-piece/

CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR: Mark Clayton's report on President Obama's visit to a
Missouri factory for Smith Electric's new delivery trucks quotes us saying "No
question about it, the commercial fleet market is a giant untapped opportunity
for electrified vehicles. We think the future will be retrofitting existing
trucks with electric-drive technology."
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2010/0708/Obama-touts-electric-delivery-tru\
ck-but-still-a-long-haul-to-market/

COALITION FOR GREEN CAPITAL PROPOSES CLEAN ENERGY BANK: Led by former FCC
Chairman Reed Hundt, this relatively new advocacy group urges investments to
enable energy service companies to offer retrofits to buildings. See Hundt's
April 14 testimony at http://www.coalitionforgreencapital.com/in-the-news.html .
We've proposed to the group that it expand its financing focus to include
vehicles as part of the "built environment" that needs to be fixed.

THE CHALLENGE OF REPLACING OFFSHORE OIL: A thoughtful comment shows the scale of
the problem -- the size and intractability of our dependence on oil -- at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-nelder/195-californias-or-74-tex_b_596546.ht\
ml
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We have loads of new developments: so we're splitting it into three separate
posts. This one is limited to automakers: the Volt's warranty, Pres. Obama sees
the Volt; Honda will sell a PHEV, as will PSA Peugeot Citroen and Hyundai Heavy.
This post will be followed by one on conversions,  and a final one about policy
and government.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

CHEVY VOLT'S 100,000 MILE/8 YEAR WARRANTY: Chevrolet announced a very aggressive
and broad protection for its new vehicle, including 100,000 miles/8-year
transferrable for the 161 components in the entire battery and electric drive
system plus:
* 100,000 mile/5-year transferable Engine Limited Warranty (for Range Extender)
* 100,000 mile/5-year 24/7 Roadside Assistance Program
* 100,000 mile/5-year 24/7 Courtesy Transportation Program
* 36,000 mile/ 3-year no deductible Bumper-to-Bumper transferable warranty
* 100,000 mile/6-year corrosion protection
This goes well beyond most new vehicles; the list doesn't include extended
OnStar coverage. See GM's press release at
http://media.gm.com/content/product/public/us/en/volt/home.detail.html/content/P\
ages/news/us/en/2010/July/0714_volt_battery and the transcript of a webchat by
Chevy Volt Marketing director Tony DiSalle and Global EV Executive Doug Parks
http://chevroletvoltage.com/index.php/Volt/even-more-peace-of-mind-from-your-che\
vrolet-volt.html . Media reports say this will increase pressure on Nissan for
its warranty.

PRESIDENT OBAMA CHECKS OUT THE VOLT: At a visit to the LG Chem battery plant in
Michigan, see Pres. Obama walk around, sit in, and recommend the Volt in 23
seconds at
http://chevroletvoltage.com/index.php?option=com_seyret&task=videodirectlink&Ite\
mid=3&id=201 See news and more photos at
http://gm-volt.com/2010/07/16/obama-attends-lg-chem-battery-plant-groundbreaking\
-and-gets-first-seat-time-in-the-chevy-volt/

CHEVY VOLT NOT ELIGIBLE FOR CALIFORNIA CREDIT: GM decided not to seek
certification by the California Air Resources Board of the 2011 model year Volt
as an AT-PZEV (the category for vehicles like the Prius, which have special
emissions standards and a 10-year/150,000 mile battery warranty. GM has said it
will seek eligibility for 2013 models. This means the first generation will not
be eligible for credits available to about 1,000 of the first California buyers
of plug-in vehicles ($5,000 for EVs, $3,000 for PHEVs -- see
https://energycenter.org/index.php/incentive-programs/clean-vehicle-rebate-proje\
ct ). For a broad discussion of the plug-in vehicle warranties see
http://earth2tech.com/2010/07/16/electric-vehicle-101-know-your-warranty/ . We
may get some clarification from the Board; meanwhile, for discussions of the
Volt and CARB, see
http://gm-volt.com/2010/07/17/volt-doesnt-meet-carb-designation-californians-los\
e-5000-tax-incentive/ 
http://gm-volt.com/2010/07/19/chevrolet-volt-battery-warranty-details-and-clarif\
ications/ and
http://www.plugincars.com/why-chevy-volt-does-not-qualify-california-5000-rebate\
-49725.html.

CHEVY VOLT MARKETING: See
http://gm-volt.com/2010/07/13/chevrolet-volt-advertising-has-begun/ for copies
of the Volt's print ad and its 30-second "local market teaser." GM will sell
10,000 Volts by the end of 2011 Volts and 30,000 during the 2012 calendar year.
Within 18 months of first sales, the Volt will be available in 50 states.
http://media.gm.com/content/media/us/en/news/news_detail.brand_gm.html/content/P\
ages/news/us/en/2010/July/0701_volt_recap . GM's marketing director Tony DiSalle
urges prospective buyers to sign up at a local dealer
http://gm-volt.com/2010/06/29/chevrolet-dealers-begin-volt-training-as-gm-determ\
ines-how-to-manage-customer-expectations/ . (GM's decision not to have a central
sales operation for early Volt sales, which would enable them to strategically
offer some of the first vehicles to those who will energetically promote and
demonstrate the vehicle, has been controversial among plug-in advocates.) See
the two-page Chevy description of its salesperson training program for the Volt
http://gm-volt.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2011-Chevy-Volt-Preliminary-Salesp\
erson-Guide.pdf

VOLT AND MEDIA: Consumer Reports reviews a Volt prototype at
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/06/27/2011-chevrolet-volt-visits-consumer-reports\
-w-video/ and
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2010/06/video-2011-chevrolet-volt-highligh\
ts-from-consumer-reports-track.html . TIME Magazine's article "Can the Chevy
Volt Recharge General Motors?" reads like a summary of the arguments PHEV
advocates made for years: that in addition to energy security and climate
change, the vehicle could help save the company. See an abridged version at
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2003789,00.html. See an
interview, "8 ways cities can encourage electric vehicles" on "readiness" themes
with GM's Britta Gross at
http://www.smartplanet.com/business/blog/smart-takes/gms-britta-gross-8-ways-cit\
ies-can-encourage-electric-vehicles/8047/

HONDA FINALLY SAYS YES TO PHEVs: the chief remaining holdout among automakers
announced it will sell a PHEV (as well as an EV). At
http://www.hondanews.com/categories/804/releases/5527  it committed to an
evaluation vehicle this year and a "PHEV system for mid-size to larger vehicles"
in 2012. CEO President & CEO Takanobu Ito described the company's new
imperative: "Honda will have no future unless we achieve a significant reduction
of CO2 emissions." 
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/07/honda-announces-plans-to-offer-\
bev-and-new-plug-in-hybrid-in-us-in-2012.html  See analyses at
http://earth2tech.com/2010/07/20/honda-plug-ins-in-the-pipeline-for-2012/ and

VOLKWAGEN has announced it intends to be the leading manufacturer of plug-in
vehicles by 2013. CEO Martin Winterkorn's just visited the company's Silicon
Valley Lab, which is moving to large space as it more than doubles in size
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_15554021. Others analyze VW's projections
to show the company will still focus mainly on gasoline and diesel technologies,
with hybrids and plug-ins amounting to 3% of sales in 2018.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/volkswagen-warms-a-bit-more-to-elect\
rics/ For VW's approach on batteries, led by Tesla founder Martin Eberhard, see
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/07/vw-300k-evs-annually-2018/

PSA PEUGEOT CITROEN has also launched a plan to develop PHEVs
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/psaeib-20100716.html

HYUNDAI HEAVY & RASER JOINT PROJECTS: The Korean company's partnership with the
Utah company that converted a Hummer H3 to a series PHEV have agreed to deliver
additional trucks to Pacific Gas & Electric.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/06/rasere-hhi-20100629.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

In this third posting on a single day, we report on the latest news:
major advances in Congress for the Electrification Coalition's
proposals; automakers and utilities ask the White House for a strong
focus and more coordination; nations coordinate their electrification
strategies; the Department of Energy summarizes the results of
stimulus financing programs; China announces large plug-in subsidies;
the controversy over "stealthy" plug-in cars; some tributes to
climate change pioneer Stephen Schneider; California's cleantech
industry starts to defend itself; and Joseph Romm's recent talk in
San Francisco.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR ELECTRIFICATION LEGISLATION: Demonstrating how
plug-in vehicles continue to gain support from multiple
consstituencies, the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee
voted 19-4  for the Promoting Electric Vehicles Act of 2010. Voting
in favor of the $6B measure were Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-NM),
Ranking Member Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Evan Bayh (D-IN), Robert
Bennett (R-UT), Sam Brownback (R-KS), Richard Burr (R-NC), Maria
Cantwell (D-WA), Bob Corker (R-TN), Byron L. Dorgan (D-ND), Tim
Johnson (D-SD), Mary L. Landrieu (D-LA), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR),
Robert Menendez (D-NJ), James E. Risch (R-ID), Bernard Sanders
(I-VT), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Mark Udall
(D-CO), and Ron Wyden (D-OR). Insiders expect this package to be a
contender for inclusion in any energy or climate legislation "deal"
in Congress in the next few weeks.

The legislation was based on the EV Deployment Act developed by the
Electrification Coalition. See EC President Robbie Diamond's
statement  at
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ec-applauds-energy-committee-for-biparti\
san-passage-of-electrification-legislation-98928404.html
. As reported by John O'Dell, the Senate bill was modified to expand
the number of eligible "deployment communities" after three years.
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/07/key-ev-development-measures-win\
-senate-panel-backing.html
.

See an in-depth analysis at
http://www.plugincars.com/electric-vehicle-legislation-gets-interesting-dc-many-\
bills-many-options-no-certainty-49749.html
. And see analyses by Deron Lovaas, Federal Transportation Policy
Director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, summarizing
current Senate initiatives, including the EC plan at
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dlovaas/countering_the_oil_curse_senat.html
. Lovaas endorses another bill, the Oil Independence for a Stronger
America Act, which includes much of the EC plan, all of which has the
goal of reducing oil use by 40% by 2030. (That's a worthy goal, but
not one that will get us the reductions we need in the next 10 years.
CalCars has been "evangelizing" Big Fix and Drive Star, to cut oil in
half in ten years by converting gas-guzzlers in addition to new
plug-in vehicle production, to people at NRDC as well as in Congress
and to the advocates at the Electrification Coalition.)

BUSINESS GROUPS CALL FOR NATIONAL ELECTRIC FUEL TASK FORCE: The
Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the Association of
International Automobile Manufacturers, the Electric Drive
Transportation Association and the Edison Electric Institute have
asked the White House to step up the pace of vehicle electrification
with an interagency working group plus a task force that "would
include federal and state regulators, standards organizations,
utilities, environmental groups, consumer groups and electric drive
industry stakeholders." See press release and letter at
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/07/20/business-groups-ask-president-obama-to-set-\
up-electric-vehicle-t/
. This news also made it into Politico's "Morning Energy" report
http://www.politico.com/morningenergy/0710/morningenergy41.html --
you can get this very useful roundup delivered by email daily.

US ENERGY DEPT SUMMARIZES RESULTS OF ITS TRANSPORTATION
ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAMS: The eight-page report on Recovery
Act-funded projects at
http://www.whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Battery-and-Electric-Vehicle-Report-FI\
NAL.pdf
includes charts and graphs projecting rapid declines in battery
costs, increases in lifetimes, and lower weight for batteries for
both PHEVs and EVs. See summary at
http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1892  and analysis at
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0715/Why-Obama-is-putting-so-much-stock-in-bat\
tery-technology
.

GLOBAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE INITIATIVE ANNOUNCED AT WASHINGTON, DC
MEETING: Government ministers from China, France, Germany, Japan,
South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United
States announced a program to get 20 million plug-in vehicles on the
road by 2020. (Much as we are pleased, and this nine-country
initiative doesn't include many other national efforts, if we have
two billion vehicles by then, that admirable target will be 1% of the
total fleet.) See
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/electric-vehicle-initiative-launched-at-\
clean-energy-ministerial-in-washington-dc.html
including a link to the announcement, which includes Smart Grid and
other related programs.

CHINESE SUBSIDIES FOR PHEVS: In May, the central government announced
a maximum subsidy of 50,000 yuan ($7,386) for PHEVs, and in July,
Shenzhen's city government added another 30,000 to that amount (more
in both cases for EVs). http://www.dgtoday.com.cn/newsc.asp?id=6992

UNUSUAL SUSPECTS TALKING ABOUT PLUG-IN CARS: Also at Politico, you
may be surprised at the comments from an especially diverse group of
people
http://www.politico.com/arena/archive/electric-cars-key-to-energy-independence.h\
tml

NOISE IN PLUG-IN CARS: A great selling point for plug-in vehicles is
that they almost silent compared to combustion-engine vehicles (both
make tire noise, of course). The first ad for the Chevy Volt is quiet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-m0J-SFavM , as was the June ad from
Electrification Coalition
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php .)
Pedestrian/bicyclist safety concerns have led to a federal study
completed in September 2009:
http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811204.PDF and to proposed
legislation
http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100526/HR5381.Amendment.Stearns.pdf
. Chelsea Sexton discusses the issue, including commenting on the
study and legislation (followed by many comments), in "We're losing
sight of reason in the debate over adding sounds to electric
vehicles."
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/06/23/chelsea-sexton-were-losing-sight-of-reason-\
in-the-debate-over/
. We agree with her approach of deferring any regulatory requirements
until we have more data and experience (that's what the European
Union is doing), and would favor a driver-controlled system
especially when driving forward. To hear possible sounds, see a 2:18
video for the Volt at
http://chevroletvoltage.com/index.php/Volt/stop-look-listen.html and
36 seconds for the LEAF at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihoXaHqpbpg&feature=related

OVERVIEW ON INFRASTRUCTURE & CHARGING: A thoughtful exploration in
Public Utilities Fortnightly http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=23641

REMEMBERING STEPHEN SCHNEIDER: We note with great sadness the death
of climatologist Stephen Schneider of Stanford University. His work
over four decades ranged from original scientific research to
combating the global disinformation campaign on global warming. You
can see his sense of humor in the photo of him two years ago with a
plug-in hybrid at http://www.calcars.org/photos-people.html#SS3 . We
invite you to take a few minutes to commemorate this giant and watch
and learn from him:
* A few days before his death he presented a first-of-its kind study
that affirms the broad scientific agreement on climate change by
scientists and compares their expertise to those of unconvinced
researchers. See an extended transcript and a 9:18 minute video at
http://climateprogress.org/2010/07/19/stephen-schneider-obituary/ .
* From the young scientist, in what's captioned "one of the earliest,
strongest, and most consistent voices on Climate Change -- Stephen
Schneider sounded a strikingly prescient alarm in 1979."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB2ugPM0cRM (1:54)
* His 2009 wise, stirring, hard-hitting, narrative with slides about
how to think about climate tipping points and risk asks, "do you love
your children more than your grandchildren?" at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDSWpJeQ6Ns (4:38)

See Schneider's home page for his biography, books and blog
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/index.html. Obituaries and memorials:
* Ben Santer at Lawrence Livermore Labs
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/07/a-eulogy-to-stephen-schnei\
der/

* T. lRees Shapiro at Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/19/AR2010071905108.\
html
* Andrew Revkin at NY Times
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/19/the-passing-of-a-climate-warrior/
* Douglas Martin at NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/earth/20schneider.html?_r=1

DEFENDING CALIFORNIA'S GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS ACT: Facing what
could be a $50 million oil-industry-funded attack, national advocates
for climate change policies are rallying to defeat an initiative to
stop AB32 from going into effect next year. They recognize that if
this derailment effort succeeds in California, the prospects for
national legislation will be seriously damaged. See the supporters
list at http://www.stopdirtyenergyprop.com/our-coalition.php and many
links from that site. Also see The California Bright Spot
http://wwwCaBrightSpot.com . It's sponsored by the California
Business Alliance for a Green Economy as an information hub to
highlight good news about the latest investments in clean energy
companies and the growth of the green economy.

HEAR CLIMATE PROGRESS'S JOSEPH ROMM: We've never heard him more
focused and insightful than he was at the Commonwealth Club's
ClimateOne event earlier this week. With excellent questions by Greg
Dalton and the audience, Romm says climate change is "the
transcendental issue of our tim; it will overwhelm all other issues
by the end of the 2020s." He discusses advocates "catastrophic
failure of messaging," and sees a need to "transform politics" so
there's a "political cost to destroying the climate." (He also
praises PHEVs as a key "enabling technology.") the 66-minute event,
"After BP: Climate Progress?" will be viewable in a few months, but
is already available as a podcast at iTunes, and will soon be
available at http://www.commonwealthclub.org/archive/ . Right now at
that site, you can download author Eric Pooley's talk on "America's
Climate War," commended by Romm for writing a book about "the media
story of the century" --  "the single most effective disinformation
campaign in history, which will be vilified for centuries."

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We were encouraged last week by the bipartisan 19-4 vote in the Senate Energy &
Natural Resources Committee for S.3495, The Promoting Electric Vehicles Act of
2010, an evolution of the Electric Vehicle Deployment Act legislation developed
by http://www.electrificationcoalition.org . But as of now its provisions have
been KO'd (knocked out) of the developing "small energy package" that is
replacing any broad action on climate change. Advocates are mobilizing to
encourage messages to the Senate Leadership, especially Majority Leader Harry
Reid, not to drop these provisions. Making this leadership strategy more
questionable is the inclusion of a major push for natural gas for
transportation, which we talk about below, followed with pointers for what you
can do.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

SENATOR REID'S CHALLENGE: The Majority Leader's actions effectively leave it up
to those who support PHEVs and EVs to see if the broader EV community can muster
political support to add the plug-in vehicle tax credits and other provisions to
add to the natural gas vehicle tax credits that made their way into the draft
bill.  These include:

* Support for S.3495 to promote broad deployment of plug-in vehicles;
* National tax incentives for vehicles and infrastructure, including
reinstatement of credits for medium and heavy-duty vehicles (included in S.2854,
the Kohl-Hatch bill amending the IRS code);
* Making tax credits available to tax-exempt entities such as organizations and
municipalities.

As we post this, the leadership's bill has not yet been made public. There's
still time to have your voices heard.

As advocates of "cleaner, cheaper, domestic electricity," we've been focusing on
oil as the main alternative. But if natural gas as a primary solution for an
energy transportation policy, we won't have gotten very far. Below we explain
some of that. We follow that with the statement by the Electrification Coalition
and how you can contact Senator Reid.

THE REAL STORY ABOUT NATURAL GAS: The most important thing to understand about
NG is that it is A NON-RENEWABLE FOSSIL FUEL. Nowadays, the campaign to promote
NG is increasingly misleading. Uninformed people hear that the fuel is called
"natural." They see TV ads and buses on city streets powered by "America's Clean
Energy." It sounds like a benign fuel with substantial domestic supplies. In
Washington, the natural gas companies are spending money, while the electricity
industry sleeps. Every policy junkie in Washington who read's Politico's Morning
Energy report gets two ads from America's Natural Gas Alliance.

In the days when the main concern was "air pollution," NG was an obvious
improvement. The chart at an industry website,
http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp shows NG is 12x better than
gasoline on particulates, and almost 400x better than coal. It's 5x better than
gasoline or coal on nitrogen oxides (smog precursor).

GREENHOUSE GASES: But these days we're most worried about CO2. There the
benefits are far smaller. NG is only 20-30% lower than gasoline! At the same
NaturalGas.org page, citing the U.S. Energy Information Agency, NG has 71.3% as
much CO2 as oil. At another U.S. Government energy source, the benefit is even
lower: NG at the pipeline has 74.8% the carbon content of motor gasoline.
(Source: http://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb29/Spreadsheets/TableB_16.xls from the
Department of Energy's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Transportation
Energy Data Book.These numbers don't include the GHGs used to bring the fuel
from the well to the wheels (pipelines and trucks vs. pipelines and
compression/liquifaction.) And the State of California's Low Carbon Fuel
Standard analyses uses numbers closer to 20%.

For large vehicles, if we had no other option, we would chose natural gas over
gasoline. But we see as the best long-term strategy to electrify as many
gasoline/diesel miles as possible then use the cleanest liquid fuel possible for
the range extension, evolving that as soon as possible to renewable low-carbon
biofuels. The best use of  NG would be in large power plants to displace coal
rather than in inefficient internal combustion engines.

AS A "FUEL FROM HELL," NATURAL GAS COMES FROM DRILLING. With all the promotion
of NG, we're only now beginning to hear about the dark downside of hydraulic
fracturing or "fracking"-- using millions of gallons of water mixed with
undisclosed chemicals and sand to release natural gas. This is the subject of an
acclaimed new documentary, Gasland, still airing on HBO. And last week saw signs
of the growing controversy as communities across dozens of states located  on
top of the cast Marcellus Shale Formation, an  "unconventional natural gas
reserve" across 10 states face gold-rush style leasing pressures and are
reporting to the Environmental Protection Agency groundwater contamination and
other consequences.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/24/business/energy-environment/24gas.html

This provides the context in which oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens spent $50
million pushing his Pickens Plan. (Pickens also likes wind energy, another of
his businesses, and has spoken well of plug-in vehicles, but they're sidelines.)
Washington observers are crediting his efforts with making natural gas the
winner and plug-in vehicles the loser in the Senate.


CORPORATIONS ADOPTING NATURAL GAS: While we've been working to gain credibility
and support for the companies that are converting vehicles to electricity, we're
seeing announcements for often more expensive conversions to natural gas.
Verizon has bought 501 Ford E-250 cargo vans to convert to run on compressed
natural gas.
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/06/aiming-to-lower-its-co2-footpri\
nt-verizon-buys-501-ford-vans-to-convert-to-cng.html . That report says Ford has
shipped 3,000 vans "equipped for natural gas conversions" in the past seven
months. And Chrysler, following Fiat's lead, is now looking at natural gas as an
alternative to electrification
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/06/chrysler-eyeing-natural-gas-as-\
interim-green-stragegy.html

THE ELECTRIFICATION COALITION'S RESPONSE TO THE LEADERSHIP'S ACTIONS

http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-ec-energy-bill.php
An Energy Bill That Does Not Include Electrification With Not Improve Energy
Security

WASHINGTON – July 22, 2010 Robbie Diamond, president of the Electrification
Coalition, released the following statement today in response to news reports
outlining the energy bill expected to reach the Senate floor next week:

"The Senate is making a dramatic mistake if the energy bill that is debated next
week does not include the bipartisan electrification provisions that only
yesterday were overwhelmingly voted out of committee. After the last three
months of watching oil spill into the Gulf, it would be stunning if the energy
bill does not include electrification, which represents the only way to
fundamentally affect our oil consumption. Republicans and Democrats alike
support electrification, and they should have the opportunity to vote on it. An
oil bill that does not include electrification cannot truly be said to improve
our energy security."

On May 27, Republicans and Democrats in both the House and the Senate introduced
legislation designed to advance the wide-scale deployment of electric vehicles
and to develop the infrastructure needed to support them. The Senate bill,
entitled the "Electric Vehicle Deployment Act of 2010" was introduced by
Senators Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), and Jeff Merkley (D-OR).
The House legislation, entitled the "Electric Drive Vehicle Deployment Act of
2010," was cosponsored by House Select Committee on Energy Independence and
Global Warming Chairman Ed Markey (D-MA), Rep. Judy Biggert (R-IL), Rep. Anna
Eshoo (D-CA), and Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA). A version of the legislation was
approved by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on an overwhelming
bipartisan 19-4 vote on July 21.

The legislation echoes recommendations put forward by the Electrification
Coalition, a nonpartisan, not-for-profit group of business leaders committed to
promoting policies and actions that facilitate the deployment of electric
vehicles on a mass scale in order to combat the economic, environmental, and
national security dangers caused by our nation's dependence on petroleum. The
EC's Electrification Roadmap, released in November 2009, proposed a set of
policies in which geographic areas would compete to be selected as
electrification deployment communities: specific areas in which targeted,
temporary financial incentives are employed so that all of the elements of an
electrified transportation system are deployed simultaneously.

You can send a short message along the lines of "include S.3495, The Promoting
Electric Vehicles Act of 2010 in the energy package so we can get off fossil
fuels sooner" by email to Senator Reid at
http://reid.senate.gov/contact/index.cfm

You can also use voice your support through the Electrification Coalition's
website to contact your elected officials
http://org2.democracyinaction.org/o/6867/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=3579


--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We've seen wall-to-wall coverage of the Chevy Volt's arrival, along with many
welcome matchups about Chevy Volt vs. Nissan LEAF. What a pleasure to have a
choice! Soon we'll at last see what consumers want! GM announced Volt pricing at
Plug-in 2010: $41,000 price ($33,500 after tax credit), plus a very enticing
alternative of a $350/month lease ($3,500 up front, 12,000 mile/year allowance,
option to purchase at the end of three years). For a media roundup with pointers
to many stories see
http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/03/chevy-volt-media-limbaugh-cost . This
includes a not-to-be-missed cartoon and a reposting of a pricing analysis by
rising star plug-in consultant and newly-minted Ph.D. Shannon Arvizu ("Miss
Electric"). Below you'll find links for the President's Volt drive, GM's
responses to reports of price-gouging, news about GM's investment in Bright
Automotive, and finally Ron Gremban's four thoughtful comments about the Volt
and the LEAF.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

PRESIDENTIAL DRIVE: Those who were disappointed that the President Obama didn't
take the Volt out for a spin last month will be happy to know that on Friday, he
came to the venerable Detroit-Hamtramck plant where Volts are built. Though he
didn't get to take a spin around the cones, he did creep forward about 10 feet
under the watchful eyes of GM executives, the Secret Service and the Press. In
his eight-minute speech
http://www.detnews.com/article/20100730/AUTO01/7300409/Obama-drives-Volt--praise\
s-U.S.-auto-industry , he says to the autoworkers, "You are proving the
naysayers wrong." Watch the drive at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/07/30/VI2010073004584.ht\
ml (1 minute); after drive he said, "pretty smooth." Media didn't credit plant
manager Teri Quigley for sitting with him and showing him what buttons to push.

PRICE-GOUGING BY DEALERS? We're seeing signs that some short-sighted Chevy
dealers plan to take advantage of the shortage of vehicles, and thereby risk
their customers' goodwill and their franchises' reputations with watchful social
media. In the wake of reports that some dealers by up to $10-20,000 over sticker
price
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/08/think-41000-steep-for-a-chevy-v\
olt-one-dealer-wants-20000-premium.html , GM has made clear that while it has no
absolute control over its dealers' policies, it would discourage the practice.
At Plug-In 2010, GM's Britta Gross, Director, Global Energy Systems and
Infrastructure Commercialization, in response to a question about dealer
mark-ups said,
"We wrote some cautionary letters to them to remind them that we're all in this
together, but we don't own dealers, they're independent business operators. I've
heard some stories here and Tony DiSalle was here all week. He's head of
marketing and he's already gotten a couple of stories. We'll  do what we
can....we're going to try  talk and pass the word that that's not what we were
hoping for." She thereby reinforced comments by GM spokesperson Phill Colley,
who told gm-volt.com that the company would "pay close attention" and "strongly
discourage" this behavior
http://gm-volt.com/2010/06/25/gm-does-not-expect-dealer-price-gouging-on-early-c\
hevy-volts/ . YOu can PRINT THIS OUT and take it to any dealer who tries to pull
a fast one....

GM INVESTS IN BRIGHT IDEA: A few days after the conference, we were gratified to
hear that the new $100M GM Ventures firm, headed by former GM Vice President of
Global Product Planning Jon Lauckner, as its first equity position has invested
$5M in Bright Automotive, along with technology sharing plans. Read about the
deal at http://brightautomotive.com/files/Bright_GM_Investment_Release.pdf . We
hadn't heard much from Bright recently as it continued to wait for a response
from Washington on its loan application to support building the Bright IDEA, an
optimized lightweight commercial van that incorporates many of the pioneering
ideas of the Rocky Mountain Institute from which it, like Hypercar, spun off.
Bright also has a promising aftermarket conversion arm which is also completing
a project for the U.S. military to convert a gas-guzzler to a PHEV, and a
similar project for the U.S. Postal Service.

WE LOVE VOLT AND LEAF: We pay most attention to PHEVs because that's CalCars'
focus and because we think PHEVs will dominate plug-in car sales for many years.
But since our goal is to displace as much petroleum with electricity ASAP, if
we're wrong and EVs arrive sooner than we think, we'll win even bigger! Our two
full-timers, Founder Felix Kramer and Technology Lead Ron Gremban, are now both
on official lists for both cars. (ADVERTISEMENT: We'll soon be selling Ron's
silver historic world's first Prius PHEV conversion and Felix's white Prius
PHEV, famously driven/viewed by dozens of Senators and Representatives in 2006,
and other luminaries including Orlando Bloom, Stewart Brand, Lester Brown, Bill
Clinton, Al Gore, Andy Grove, Daryl Hannah, Dean Kamen, Burt Rutan, Maria
Shriver, and George Shultz -- see links from http://www.calcars.org/photos.html
. Both are 2004 -- contact us if you want to buy one or can help us organize an
auction!)

CALCARS ANALYSES ON VOLT VS. LEAF: We're not very interested in predicting what
car-buyers will want: we'll find out soon enough. At Plug-In 2010, we heard some
wise observers speculate that "what's logical may be wrong." EVs may not be most
popular in cities: PHEVs could predominate when daily charging isn't as easy,
and people want to be able to go away on weekends. EVs could predominate in
suburbs where more people own more than one car, and the second one will work
fine with a 100-mile range. Here are Ron's four thoughts about the vehicles:

1. LEAF PRICING AND SMALL CARS: Even if the LEAF turns out to be not optimal for
all conditions, it's a game changer because Nissan's huge commitment to high
volume production (200k-500k/year) of Battery Electric Vehicles will make the
up-front price of BEVs competitive with that of gasoline vehicles, especially
after the $7,500 federal tax credits. The ultra-low cost of fuel and maintenance
will become a welcome gift that will over time amaze owners. Via word-of-mouth
and publicity, it could excite other car buyers. Of course, range and refueling
time will still be limitations compared to gasoline-fueling. But not as second
cars. And based on
http://www.bts.gov/publications/highlights_of_the_2001_national_household_travel\
_survey/html/table_a02.html , the average household has 1.9 cars. And there are
115 million U.S. households. Nissan is working on deployment of half-hour fast
chargers to make occasional longer-distance travel practical, starting in
limited geographical regions. Increasingly popular carshare programs can also
make BEVs more practical by providing an inexpensive, convenient option for rare
short hauls for a large vehicle, and we hope people will choose conventional
rentals for infrequent longer trips or when they need a different vehicle. This
could lead to more people buying small cars in general.

2. LEAF BATTERIES: Nissan has also indicated it plans (helped by its production
volume) to double EV range in a few years. (The same fast chargers will also
then charge larger packs during a meal stop.) As gasoline prices rise with a
rise in global demand, LEAF owners will be sitting pretty. If we face a supply
disruption, used plug-ins could well command premium prices. Despite Nissan's
eight-year 100,000 mile warranty, the LEAF's air-cooled battery thermal
management design could at some point limit its effectiveness and/or longevity
in especially hot and cold climates. We could someday see third parties sell
thermal management add-ons, just as aftermarket fans were once popular to "fix"
the original Volkswagen Beetle's ineffective cabin heater.

3. VOLT PRICING AND RANGE: The Volt should be compared more to the
similar-sized-and-not-much-cheaper BMW 3-series than to economy cars.  It will
enable many people who really want to get off gasoline to do so most of the
time. The up-front cost premium for doing so will be worthwhile to many
customers who want the advantages of electric propulsion -- including the
ability to keep driving during 1970s-like fuel disruptions and/or rationing --
but are unable or unwilling to live with BEV limitations. This will be THE PHEV
for purists. Many people don't realize that a Volt with a 20-mile range would
not sell for significantly less, as a smaller battery still capable of providing
the power required under all conditions would cost nearly as much. These power
requirements are one reason the Volt has a 16 kWh pack while using only 8 kWh to
provide the 40-mile all-electric range. It also ensures battery longevity and
keeps battery aging from reducing electric range.

4. VOLT VS. PLUS-IN PRIUS: We believe that in volume production Toyota should be
able to price its Plug-In Prius, expected to be available in 2012, at a modest
premium over the standard Prius -- perhaps $3,000. The increment comes from the
plug-in's higher capacity battery and its charger. This vehicle could provide
many of the advantages of electric driving at the lowest cost, without range
limitations. To meet emissions requirements, a "blended-mode" PHEV like this
will in the U.S. and perhaps elsewhere have to start the engine for every trip,
and run it periodically to keep its catalytic converter hot, so no trip will be
gasoline-free. The result will be 20-25 miles of electrically-assisted and
electric-only driving. This makes the 14-mile electric-only range reasonable
(though I'd prefer 20 miles). Owners will likely cut their average gasoline
consumption by 50%compared to a non-plug-in Prius -- more if their daily drives
are short or they can plug in again at work. However, many plug-in Prius owners,
like owners of today's Prius conversions, may eventually love the feeling and
the economic benefits of all-electric driving so much that they will find
themselves trying very hard  to avoid that dreaded engine assist, and look for a
series PHEV (EREV) or a BEV for their next car.
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

This third annual conference http://www.plugin2010.com drew hundreds of people
more than last year; we didn't recognize many of them (a good sign);
presentations were chock-full of current information.  The show floor was full
of vehicles (so welcome). We noted especially that http://www.altellc.com  (the
Michigan company founded by former Tesla engineers, soon to announce more news)
impressed many people, including high-ups in the auto industry, with its chassis
showing its conversion of an F-150 pick-up truck to a series plug-in hybrid. You
can see many reports on the conference at http://www.greencarcongress.com,
http://www.autobloggreen.com , http://www.misselectric.com/?p=1242 etc. Below we
include info about seeing the presentations, followed by a link to Ron Grembans
presentation and the transcript of two short talks by Felix Kramer, both making
the case for gas-guzzler conversions.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

Impressively, the conference organizers have managed to get all the
presentations online in less than a week. But conference policy limits access to
those who registered for the event. (In a few weeks, they will announce their
plans to make the presentations available for purchase.) Some presenters may
make their talks public in other locations (see Ron's below), or an attendee
might let you have a peek.

RON GREMBAN'S PRESENTATION AT PLUG-IN 2010: Ron Gremban gave a technical talk on
Energy Efficiency Ratios, battery costs and rules, and conversion analyses. You
can download the 12 slide PDF of "Cost Projections and a Rule of Thumb for both
New Plug-in Vehicles and Conversions" at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-plug-in-cost-analysis-july2010.pdf

FELIX KRAMER'S EIGHT-MINUTE TALK AT PLUG-IN 2010. In addition to moderating the
panel on plug-in policy, Felix also spoke there about the rationale, evolution
and prospects for CalCars' "Big Fix" campaign. Here's an edited version of that
talk:

I'm the founder of the California Cars Initiative, calcars.org. Back in 2004,
CalCars did the first conversion of a Prius. The brains behind that effort was
Ron Gremban, my technical partner, who's in the front row there. We started
wearing T-shirts that said "I get 100+ MPG". That got a big response -- we
started talking about the benefits of electricity as [being] "cheaper, cleaner,
domestic", electricity compared to gasoline.

And after eight years, we declared victory last fall, because plug-in hybrids
will come to market. We understand that there's still a lot of work to do to
wrap that up, but we went on to CalCars 2.0, and that's what I want to talk
about.

Basically, what we're focusing about 75% of our time on now is on conversions of
large gas-guzzler vehicles. It's something many of you in the room probably
haven't really heard about or thought about. It's really equivalent to what we
were talking about in 2002-2005 or so, where everybody dismissed the idea of the
plug-in hybrid -- it's not practical, nobody'll want it, no technical solution,
no business model.. But I think gas-guzzler conversions is going to change in
the next couple of years, and actually even sooner.

The reason to do it is market-penetration issues. There will be an insignificant
impact in terms of petroleum reduction from the new plug-in hybrids and electric
vehicles for more than 15 years --even if they come in at a rate 10 times faster
than hybrids came into the market. Because we have 250 million vehicles in the
United States and 900 million in the world. The second reason is because there's
a lot of embedded energy in vehicles. About 15% of the total energy used by a
vehicle in its life comes from the energy used to build it.

It's still a struggle. A year or two or three ago, I started trying another
t-shirt. It's a black t-shirt, with a picture of a gas pump aimed at a person's
head, blowing a person's brains out. People were pretty shocked at it --  it was
just too far out to really wear that t-shirt.

But that changed back on April 20th, with the gulf catastrophe. Now people look
at that shirt and they say, "You're really right." so the message we're talking
about is that -- and this is really our first theme -- we can start getting off
oil very quickly if we really want to. We don't simply have to ask just for
safer drilling, which is like "clean needles" for an oil dependency. We don't
simply have to ask for methodone, which is natural gas, which is only 20% lower
CO2 than gasoline. We can actually get half off oil in ten years, if we want to,
if we convert existing vehicles.

So, we drafted the second speech we wanted President Obama to give after the oil
crisis -- talking about how we could get there. Talking about a "Drive Star"
concept, similar to the Home Star program to retrofit buildings, where we
actually get these technical solutions for vehicles on the road, show what's
possible and develop those business cases.

You can see that speech on our website
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1103.html , and basically, the message we
were giving was that we now understand in this country that we need to fix our
built environment. We define our built environment as homes, offices, and
buildings. We've got Cash for Caulkers, we've got the Home Star program in the
new energy bill. People don't understand that vehicles are part of the built
environment. That they don't last for five or seven years, that they stay on the
road for decades -- especially the biggest vehicles. And those are the vehicles
that use the most gas.

We were very happy about that conversion we did -- we made a 50-mpg vehicle into
a 100-mpg vehicle. Which means we save one gallon per hundred miles. But if you
take a 10-mpg vehicle and make it a 20, you save five gallons per hundred miles.
You understand that if you do gallons per mile rather than miles per gallon when
you do the math on these.

Basically, the whole message is about large vehicles which stay on the road in
the United States and overseas for decades because they're well-built and
they're built to last. A UPS truck stays on the road for 300,000 miles with two
drivetrain changes during that time. A pick-up truck, an SUV, a van -- Andy
Grove spoke about this here two years ago, and talked about fixing "PSVs".

So if we succeed in getting this message out, the plug-in market automatically
will become much larger, much sooner. Batters, motors, wheel motors, control
systems, smart integration -- all of that can happen much more quickly. And so,
for some of you in this audience, there are enormous entrepreneurial
opportunities, for serial entrepreneurs, to organize this industry. To find new
designs, new manufacturing opportunities, components, vehicle integration,
energy service companies, financing models, partnerships with the OEMs... I was
talking with an OEM today, who knows that fixing a vehicle that they have
already sold doesn't bring in the revenue of a new vehicle -- but if somebody's
going to do it, that they ought to be in that business as well, or involved in
that business in some way, as should the dealers, so they get a revenue stream
from that.

There are also other indirect business opportunities here. A lot of green "pimp
my ride" customizations can be done to every vehicle in the country, starting
with a realtime mpg indicator on every vehicle in the country. For every diesel
vehicle, the low-hanging fruit is carbon filters, because soot is a largely
unrecognized contributor to global warming. It lands on ice and turns it from a
reflective to an absorptive surface. Soot from stoves in the third world and
from diesel vehicles everywhere is an enormous low-hanging opportunity we can
fix.

But there's a hurdle, just like in 2002-2006: proving the business and technical
feasibility; gaining official validation, because we're not talking about
do-it-yourself conversions, we're talking about high-volume, validated, tested,
safe vehicles; and launching vehicles.

Luckily, within six months, I am very happy to say -- I wish it were now, but I
am still very happy to say that within six months, several companies that are
getting started now or are advanced or in stealth are actually going to take the
world by storm and show this is possible. One of those companies is in the
exhibit hall -- ALTe http://www.altellc.com . They have an F-150 conversion
that's right there on the floor, and I really encourage you to take a look at
that vehicle.

So, I hope that next year we'll be talking about the low-hanging fruit of
opportunities for converting vehicles, internationally, for hundreds of millions
of those 900 million vehicles. Depending on the drive cycle of the vehicle, and
the design, into EVs, PHEVs -- whichever makes sense from the technical and
business case.

And if you want to hear about the technical side of this, Ron Gremban will be
giving a presentation tomorrow in the "Designing PEV" session, where you can
talk about that as well. Thank you for your attention  and we'll go right into
your questions.


OUR SHORT PITCH AT PLUG-IN 2010 "PUBLIC NIGHT:" At this jammed event featuring
plug-in advocate Chelsea Sexton, Bill Nye "The Science Guy," and Jessie Deeter,
producer of Who Killed The Electric Car, we had the opportunity to make a
four-minute comment halfway through the two-hour event. We responded to concerns
that it was premature to declare victory on PHEVs, which could lead to some
people walking away from ongoing efforts, by talking about the meaning of
declaring victory and then moving on to more challenges. Here's a cleaned-up
version (thanks to our webmaster Michael Bender for both transcriptions):

I'M FELIX KRAMER from CalCars [applause], and I'd like to suggest ... the reason
you're applauding is because we've won. That's what I want to say. It's really
important for people to celebrate victories on campaigns. We still have lots to
do, but we won! And the people in this room, the people in these organizations,
the people who made the film -- they worked really hard. I worked eight years on
it. Andy Frank at UC-Davis worked 40 years for this day and we are at the point
when there will be production plug-in hybrid-electric and electric vehicles on
the road, and we should feel really good about that and celebrate it.

And I think part of celebrating is saying the word victory -- and it doesn't
mean anybody's walking away. It means there are other campaigns. And we get more
credibility and we get more energy from declaring victory. So we declared
victory in October on commercialization of plug-in hybrids. We need SUCCESSFUL
commercialization, which means we need to keep at it, because there's a lot to
do now. But we also need to feel good... Margaret Mead said, you know, "Never
doubt that a small group of people can change the world." You know, people put
that at the end of their email, because it's really true. Nobody thought we
could do it and we did it! [applause] And it's really important to feel
satisfied about that.

Ok, we won -- let's just talk about what we need to do next. I have a real
particular thing that we need to do next. Everybody on the panel agreed and
people in the auto industry know -- we're going to probably, maybe have 5, 10,
15% of new vehicles be plug-in hybrids or electric vehicles in 10 or 15 years.
But Bill Nye knows that we have 10 years to start really changing the emissions
profile of the world. And anyone in energy security knows we have no time at all
to start getting off oil.

So we have a president who said, when he made his speech, we're addicted to oil.
So we need a cleaner needle: we need safe drilling. And then some other people
say we need methadone: we need natural gas, which is only 20% lower CO2 than
oil. What we're saying is, if we're really serious about this and we really
understand it's the end of business as usual, why can't we actually ask, "In ten
years, how can we actually get half off oil?"

And there is a way to do it. And what it involves is understanding what our
built environment is. We understand we need to fix our built environment --
houses, offices, factories. They last a long time and we need to fix 'em. But
nobody includes cars! There are 250 million cars in the United States and 900
million in the world, and there's a company over in the exhibit hall [ALte] and
there are some others who are going to prove to the world in the next three to
six months that there's a business case and a technical case for fixing tens of
millions of vehicles -- especially the big heavy ones that use the most oil.
Make them safe, driveable, warranteed... everything, and if we pay for it, we
can actually get half off oil in the next ten years by converting existing
gas-guzzler vehicles.

BILL NYE: I'm all for it, Felix... bring it on!

FELIX: That's what I want to say, so there's a big job ahead, and you know we
invite everybody to start paying attention to that campaign, as well as to
insuring successful commercialization -- and watching out, because a lot of
people who have not been taking electric vehicles seriously are now starting to
realize that they've got a challenge. I hope, in my lifetime, that the oil
industry will be drilling for geothermal power, and I hope that petroleum will
be used for petrochemicals -- thereby sequestering oil in plastic.  And that's a
good solution.

BILL: Right on, Felix! Right on! FELIX: Thank you.
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

After we started CalCars, we saw how every
journalist's "aha" moment about the feasibility
and benefits of plug-in hybrids helped build
credibility for PHEVs. Media reports provide some
independent validation that's can be critical to
gaining acceptance for new ideas and solutions.
Now as entrepreneurs emerge and become available
to media, experienced journalists in the
automotive, technology, and cleantech media are
recognizing and chronicling the progress being
made by new companies. Here are  three examples
plus info on conversion prototypes that will be
on view in Michigan and California in September.
And we wrap up with a new study confirming the
icing on the cake of diesel gas-guzzler
conversions: reducing soot ("black carbon") that
is a significant cause of climate change.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

GIGAOM NETWORK: "ALTe: Former Tesla Team Eyes Old
Company Cars" by Josie Garthwaite
http://earth2tech.com/2010/08/16/alte-former-tesla-team-eyes-old-company-cars/
interviews ALTe's Sales & Marketing VP Brian
Polowniak  about the company's technology and production plans.

Garthwaite reports, "A fleet operator who’s ready
to scrap or sell a vehicle that's, say four years
old and has just gone out of warranty, has a
couple of options. One would be to buy a new,
conventional model for $25,000-$30,000.
Alternatively, they could pay $26,500 for the
baseline ALTe conversion, which will take 13
man-hours, come with a warranty on the powertrain
for at least five years or 50,000 miles, and
could extend the life of the vehicle for about
seven years, according to Polowniak."

The story points out that "ALTe, however, is just
one competitor in an increasingly crowded field
of startups hoping to supply powertrain tech as
major automakers get into the plug-in game and
fleet operators face new mandates to green their
fleets." It describes ALTe's position among
possible competitors Eaton, Raser, Wrightspeed,
REV and Azure, and reports that the company is in
late stages of an application for a $100M loan
the Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology
Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. The company
has so far raised $9M in private funds and has an
$8.4M Michigan economic development tax credit.

TECHNOLOGY REVIEW: "Converting Gas-Guzzlers into
Hybrids: Companies hope to turn aging trucks,
vans, and taxis into more efficient hybrids," by
Kevin Bullis, describes the plans by three
companies: XL Hybrids of Boston; MA ALTe of
Auburn Hills, MI; and Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Technologies (HEVT) of Chicago, IL.

Describing the technologies, Bullis reports,
"Alt-E, based in Auburn Hills, MI, plans to gut
conventional vehicles, replacing the engine with
a combination of electric motor, battery packs,
electronic controls, and a gasoline generator….
The other two companies plan more modest
conversions--tacking an electric motor, battery,
and controls onto the existing engine and
transmission via the drive shaft that emerges
from the engine to drive the wheels or the rear
differential, which translates the motion of the
drive shaft to the rear axle…. The companies have
all developed proprietary control systems to
connect their equipment with the vehicles'
existing computers and coordinate between the
gasoline engines and electric motors. Prices
range from $26,500 for Alt-E's F150 conversion
(about the cost of new, low end F150) to under
$10,000 for XL Hybrids' conversion of delivery vans or taxis.

While noting that all three companies have raised
some initial funds, Bullis says, "All the
companies are at an early stage of development
and have so far only converted one or two
vehicles."All the companies are at an early stage
of development and have so far only converted a
one or two vehicles." Notably, Bullis elicited
favorable quotes from two leading automotive analysts:

* Fleets are "a solid market to go after," says
Eric Fedewa, vice president of global powertrain
forecasts for analyst firm IHS Automotive, in
part because fleet managers are willing to pay
extra up front to save on per mile expenses, the
figure that ultimately matters most to them.
Savings on maintenance is particularly important,
he says, since the time a vehicle is off the road
can cost a company potential revenue.

* If the conversion companies are successful, it
could spur investments from major automakers in
developing their own hybrid and plug-in hybrid
fleets vehicles, says Oliver Hazimeh, a director
at the consulting firm PRTM . "If they see some
fleets converting, I think automakers will take
notice," he says. [Note: PRTM and Hazimeh
provided technical analysis for the
Electrification Coalition's policy reports and recommendations.]

PLUGINCARS.COM: "Are Fleet Conversions the Best
Bet for EV Startups?" by Zach McDonald
http://www.plugincars.com/are-fleet-conversions-best-bet-ev-startups-56471.html
reports that the arrival of new plug-in vehicles
doesn't mean the end of conversion companies. He
reported on August 17, "The Japanese Postal
Service announced today that it will purchase
roughly 1,000 converted Fuji Heavy minivehicles
from a startup called Zerosports. The company
will outfit the vehicles with an electric
powertrain powered by lithium ion batteries,
yielding a 60-mile range with about an 8-hour
charge time. The postal service replaces about
3,000 vehicles per year and has pledged to make
one third of future replacement vehicles electric."

McDonald briefly describes ALTe's development of
prototype conversions of a Ford Crown Victoria
and a Ford F-150 pickup truck, and concludes,
"Getting the economics to work for fleet
conversions might be the safer bet for EV
start-ups than the difficult route taken by
companies like Tesla, Fisker and Coda--aiming to
build personal electric passenger vehicles from the ground up."

This story elicited a welcome comment from
plug-in advocate Chelsea Sexton, "As with PHEV
conversions, the key to fleet conversions needs
to be quality and credibility. Especially where
public funding is in play, I'd expect these
conversions to meet all NHSTA safety regs
(including crash testing) and be emissions
certified. As with the Prius, focusing on one
model at a time can enable this, but doesn't
guarantee it, so it will be up to each individual
conversion company to prove itself."

ALTE'S PHEV PROTOTYPE F-150 TRUCK WILL BE ON VIEW
AT CALIFORNIA AND MICHIGAN EVENTS:
* Climate Policy and West Coast Transportation
Conference, September 16-17 in Palo Alto,
California https://www.regonline.com/ClimatePolicyConference
* CALSTART's Hybrid Truck Users Forum, Sept. 28,
2010 in Dearborn Michigan
http://www.calstart.org/events/calstart-events/09-09-01/HTUF_National_Conference\
_2010.aspx?Events=EventItem

"FIXING" DIESEL VEHICLES REDUCES BLACK
CARBON,  LOW-HANGING FRUIT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE:
Confirming our view that reducing soot from old
diesel trucks (as part of what can be done when
these vehicles are partly or entirely
electrified) represent the low-hanging fruit for
climate change, we refer readers to: "Study Finds
Controlling Soot May Be Fastest Method to Reduce
Arctic Ice Loss and Global Warming;
Second-Leading Cause of Global Warming After CO2
   http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/jacobson-20100729.html
Controlling soot from fossil fuels and solid
biofuels may be a faster method of reducing
Arctic ice loss and global warming than other
options, including controlling CH4 or CO2,
although all controls are needed, according to a
new study by Dr. Mark Z. Jacobson at Stanford University.

--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

It's hard to find anyone who disagrees that the world is addicted to
fossil fuels. And people are recognizing that we can start getting
off oil by electrifying as large a portion of petroleum-fueled
transportation as soon as  possible. While this "Energy Security"
motivation is well-accepted, and the "green economy/green jobs"
benefits are gaining ground, we believe rapidly responding to climate
change is the most urgent reason. This New York Times Op-Ed pulls no
punches in voicing thoughts flowing from pessimism about global
action to reduce greenhouse gases: "We'll almost certainly need some
kind of devastating climate shock to get effective climate policy."
In his "Plan Z," Thomas Homer-Dixon, professor of global systems at
the Balsillie School of International Affairs in Waterloo, Canada,
http://www.homerdixon.com doesn't include CalCars' proposal for "The
Big Fix" and Drive Star http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html .
We expect he hasn't heard of them. But as you read the full text of
his sobering article, connect the dots to his question, "How fast
could carbon emissions from automobiles and energy production be
ramped down, and what would be the economic, political and social
consequences of different rates of reduction?" We recommend this
must-read article to EVERYONE; please forward it!

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

The New York Times, August 22, 2010, Opinon: "Disaster at the Top of
the World," by Thomas Homer-Dixon
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/opinion/23homer-dixon.html

(Aboard the Louis S. St-Laurent) Standing on the deck of this
floating laboratory for Arctic science, which is part of Canada's
Coast Guard fleet and one of the world's most powerful icebreakers, I
can see vivid evidence of climate change. Channels through the
Canadian Arctic archipelago that were choked with ice at this time of
year two decades ago are now expanses of open water or vast
patchworks of tiny islands of melting ice.

In 1994, the "Louie," as the crew calls the ship, and a United States
Coast Guard icebreaker, the Polar Sea, smashed their way to the North
Pole through thousands of miles of pack ice six- to nine-feet thick.
"The sea conditions in the Arctic Ocean were rarely an issue for us
in those days, because the thick continuous ice kept waves from
forming," Marc Rothwell, the Louie's captain, told me. "Now, there's
so much open water that we have to account for heavy swells that
undulate through the sea ice. It's almost like a dream: the swells
move in slow motion, like nothing I've seen elsewhere."

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and
this summer its sea ice is melting at a near-record pace. The sun is
heating the newly open water, so it will take longer to refreeze this
winter, and the resulting thinner ice will melt more easily next summer.

At the same time, warm Pacific Ocean water is pulsing through the
Bering Strait into the Arctic basin, helping melt a large area of sea
ice between Alaska and eastern Siberia. Scientists are just beginning
to learn how this exposed water has changed the movement of heat
energy and major air currents across the Arctic basin, in turn
producing winds that push remaining sea ice down the coasts of
Greenland into the Atlantic.

Globally, 2010 is on track to be the warmest year on record. In
regions around the world, indications abound that earth's climate is
quickly changing, like the devastating mudslides in China and weeks
of searing heat in Russia. But in the world's capitals, movement on
climate policy has nearly stopped.

Democrats in the Senate decided last month that they wouldn't push
for approval of a climate bill. In Canada, Australia, Japan and
countries across Europe, the global economic crisis and other
near-term concerns have pushed climate issues to the back burner. For
China and India, economic growth and energy security are more vital priorities.

Climate policy is gridlocked, and there's virtually no chance of a
breakthrough. Many factors have conspired to produce this situation.
Human beings are notoriously poor at responding to problems that
develop incrementally. And most of us aren't eager to change our
lifestyles by sharply reducing our energy consumption.

But social scientists have identified another major reason: Climate
change has become an ideologically polarizing issue. It taps into
deep personal identities and causes what Dan Kahan of Yale calls
"protective cognition" -- we judge things in part on whether we see
ourselves as rugged individualists mastering nature or as members of
interconnected societies who live in harmony with the environment.
Powerful special interests like the coal and oil industries have
learned how to halt movement on climate policy by exploiting the fear
people feel when their identities are threatened.

Given this reality, we'll almost certainly need some kind of
devastating climate shock to get effective climate policy. That's the
key lesson of the recent financial crisis: when powerful special
interests have convinced much of the public that what they're doing
isn't dangerous, only a disaster that discredits those interests will
provide an opportunity for comprehensive policy change like the
Dodd-Frank financial regulations.

It is possible that the changes I'm seeing from the ship deck are the
beginning of the climate shock that will awaken us to the danger we
face. Scientists aren't sure what will happen when a significant
portion of the Arctic Ocean changes from white, sunlight-reflecting
ice to dark, sunlight-absorbing open water. But most aren't sanguine.

These experts are especially concerned that new patterns of air
movement in the Arctic could disrupt the Northern Hemisphere's jet
streams -- which are apparently weakening and moving northward. This
could alter storm tracks, rainfall patterns and food production far
to the south.

The limited slack in the world's food system, particularly its grain
production, can amplify the effects of disruptions. Remember that two
years ago, when higher oil prices encouraged farmers to shift
enormous tracts of cropland from grain to biofuel production, grain
prices quickly doubled or tripled. Violence erupted in dozens of
countries. Should climate change cause crop failures in major
food-producing regions of Europe, North America and East Asia, the
consequences would likely be far more severe.

Policy makers need to accept that societies won't make drastic
changes to address climate change until such a crisis hits. But that
doesn't mean there's nothing for them to do in the meantime. When a
crisis does occur, the societies with response plans on the shelf
will be far better off than those that are blindsided. The task for
national and regional leaders, then, is to develop a set of
contingency plans for possible climate shocks -- what we might call,
collectively, Plan Z.

Some work of this kind is under way at intelligence agencies and
research institutions in the United States and Europe. Harvard's
Kennedy School of Government has produced one of the best studies,
"Responding to Threat of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes." [CALCARS
NOTE: fascinating discussions of how "rational choice/cost-benefit
analysis" approaches don't apply, and basic summaries of
abatement/geoengineering/adaptation,
at  alternativeshttp://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/CCCats.pdf --
25 pages.] But for the most part these initiatives are preliminary
and uncoordinated.

We need a much more deliberate Plan Z, with detailed scenarios of
plausible climate shocks; close analyses of options for emergency
response by governments, corporations and nongovernmental groups; and
clear specifics about what resources -- financial, technological and
organizational -- we will need to cope with different types of crises.

In the most likely scenarios, climate change would cause some kind of
regional or continental disruption, like a major crop failure; this
disruption would cascade through the world's tightly connected
economic and political systems to produce a global effect. Severe
floods dislocating millions of people in a key poor country -- as
we're seeing right now in Pakistan -- could allow radicals to seize
power and tip a geopolitically vital region into war. Or drought
could cause an economically critical region like the North China
plain to exhaust its water reserves, forcing people to leave en masse
and precipitating a crisis that reverberates through the world economy.

A climate shock in North America is easy to imagine. Say a prolonged
drought causes major cities in the American Southeast or Southwest to
run out of water; both regions have large urban populations pushing
against upper limits of water supply. The news clips of cars
streaming out of Atlanta or Phoenix might finally push our leaders to
do something serious about climate change.

If so, a Plan Z for this particular scenario would help us make the
most of the opportunity. It would provide guidelines for regional and
local leaders on how to respond to the crisis. We would decide in
advance where supplies of water would be found and who would get
priority allocations; local law enforcement and emergency responders
would already have worked out lines of authority with federal
agencies and the military.

Then there are the broader steps to mitigate climate change in
general. Here, Plan Z would address many critical questions: How fast
could carbon emissions from automobiles and energy production be
ramped down, and what would be the economic, political and social
consequences of different rates of reduction? Where would we find the
vast amounts of money needed to overhaul existing energy systems? How
quickly could different economic sectors and social groups adapt to
different kinds of climate impacts? And if geoengineering to alter
earth's climate -- for example, injecting sulfates into the high
atmosphere -- is to be an option, who would make the decision and
undertake the operation?

Looking over the endless, empty horizon of the Arctic, I find it hard
to imagine this spot being of any importance to global affairs. But
it is just one of many places now considered marginal that could be
the starting point for a climate shock that plays a central role in
the evolution of human civilization. We need to be ready.


--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

We've had an entertaining visit to memory lane at 
http://www.calcars.org/events.html . Looking back at the list of 169 "Past
Events" helps us appreciate how far we've come, beginning with policy programs,
conversion demonstrations, new alliances, the rise of cleantech, and the
eventual embrace of plug-in cars by government and the auto industry. Recently,
the interest in seeing our hybrid conversions has waned. It will be superceded
at the end of the year by showcase events with the new plug-in cars so many
advocates will be happily driving.  We'll also see more demonstrations of
conversions of pickup trucks and other large gas-guzzlers, helping to deliver
the message that those solutions are coming too! Here are the events we'll be at
or tracking from September-October.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

As we look ahead to the fall, we thought back on the (other-than-plug-in) events
of the past months -- well summarized in Politico's Morning Energy brief
http://www.politico.com/morningenergy: "CRUEL SUMMER - The [Obama
administration's Supreme Court brief siding with electric utilities on coal
plant emissions] comes at the end of a summer environmentalists would like to
forget. To review: the BP oil spill dumped 4.9 million barrels of oil in the
Gulf of Mexico. The cap-and-trade bill fell apart. The Gulf spill bill still may
not happen. The GOP and climate skeptics appear set to make electoral inroads.
NOAA says 2010 has set the warmest year-to-date global temps on record. And
there are major fires in Russia and floods in Pakistan."

All this means we have our work cut out for us as we try, at least in the
transportation sector, to change the game so we can dial back on fossil fuels.
Here's where we'll be. Adding to the summaries (also found at our events page,
URL above), below we've included some comments on their significance, followed
by a few CalCars-related items.

EV 2010 VE CONFERENCE AND TRADE SHOW
http://www.emc-mec.ca/ev2010ve/en/program.html September 13-16 (Vancouver, BC,
Canada): At Canada's premier electric mobility event, organized by Electric
Mobility Canada ­ Mobilite electrique Canada, CalCars' Ron Gremban will present
on the business and technical aspects of conversions of internal combustion
engine gas-guzzlers to full or partial electric power. See website for
preliminary agenda; registration now open.

NOTE: CalCars has not had the resources to engage globally on vehicle
electrification; other than two productive trips to conferences in Iceland and
Belgium, we've stayed in North America. Canada at the moment continues to
surpass the U.S. in some ways on plug-in vehicle incentives and broad policies,
and we continue to work to cross-fertilize the discussions.

CLIMATE POLICY AND WEST COAST TRANSPORTATION
http://www.emc-mec.ca/ev2010ve/en/program.html September 16-17 (Stanford/Palo
Alto, CA): A conference focused on challenges and opportunities from Federal and
West Coast state policies to transform transportation (cars/trucks/ports) and
create a green West Coast Corridor. For government officials, industry
executives, and advocates. See the Agenda for the impressive list of presenters;
see vehicles including the Chevy Volt and an ALTe converted truck. Felix Kramer
will speak on "Next Steps in Moving Beyond Oil in Cars and Light Trucks."

NOTE: Here's how conference organizer Steve Marshall describes the event: West
Coast Corridor Coalition members are the state departments of transportation,
metropolitan planning organizations, ports, other transportation officials and
professionals from the four West Coast states.  Last February, the three West
Coast governors and the premier of British Columbia signed the Pacific Coast
Collaborative, which focused on how to make the West Coast more emissions-free.
One of the purposes of the conference is to pull together an action plan to
implement that agreement with the input from automakers, utility regulators,
utilities, environmental groups and the West Coast Corridor Collaborative
members.

SOLFEST XIV http://www.emc-mec.ca/ev2010ve/en/program.html SEPTEMBER 25-26
(Ukiah, CA): Ron Gremban will speak and show his Prius PHEV conversion at the
annual event of the Solar Living Institute, which draws about 10,000 attendees
annually and this year features Keynoters Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Arianna
Huffington.

NOTE: The benefits of plug-in vehicles soar when they are powered by renewable
fuel; many home-owning plug-in drivers find themselves installing rooftop solar
panels just before or after they get their vehicles -- it's a logical and
increasingly affordable no-brainer.

ENERGY MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF AN EMERGING U.S. CARBON MANAGEMENT POLICY
http://www.emc-mec.ca/ev2010ve/en/program.html September 27-28 (Houston, TX):
The Baker Institute Energy Forum, directed by well-known energy policy expert
Amy Myers Jaffee, presents a by-invitation international conference on issues
and trends in U.S. energy and climate policy. Felix Kramer will be one of five
keynote speakers,along with Diezani Alison-Madueke, Minister of Petroleum
Resources, Nigeria; James Mulva, Chairman and CEO, ConocoPhillips; Edward Morse,
Managing Director, Head of Global Commodities Research, Credit Suisse; and
Robert Stavins, Director, Harvard University Environmental Economics Program. A
major new study will be announced at the conference.

NOTE: We're pleased to have been invited to oil country to deliver to a
high-level audience our scenarios for how oil can be increasingly replaced with
electricity and renewable, sustainable, low-carbon biofuels. We hope to glimpse
the Houston Ship Canal -- the 50-mile long waterway lined with over 300
facilities and refineries, and our greatest domestic point of vulnerability for
accidents or attacks that could interrupt almost half of the nation's oil and
petrochemicals
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-3549034/Attack-here-along-the-fifty.html
.

HTUF (HYBRID TRUCK USERS FORUM) NATIONAL CONFERENCE
http://www.calstart.org/events/calstart-events/09-09-01/HTUF_National_Conference\
_2010.aspx?Events=EventItem September 28-30 (Dearborn, MI): At this annual event
by CALSTART, conversion companies including Michigan-based ALTe will exhibit and
present.

NOTE: HTUF http://www.calstart.org/projects/hybrid-truck-users-forum.aspx has
been focusing on heavy-duty vehicles for a decade. We won't be attending, but
here's the place to meet the entire industry and see the latest solutions.

BUSINESS OF PLUGGING In http://www.bpiconference.com October 12-14 (Detroit,
MI): The Center for Automotive Research's second annual conference: see the
Agenda and Speakers.

NOTE: We attended the first event last year, and found it to be one of the most
well-focused events we'd seen. Though we won't be back, this year the agenda
shows how far electrification has penetrated into the mainstream of the auto
industry.

LONGTIME PLUG-IN ALLY MOVES ON: A key player at Friends of the Earth, one of our
longest and best allies in promoting PHEVs, is changing jobs. We note with pride
and regret the departure of Danielle Fugere, attorney and advocate, and
co-strategist. Danielle is FOE's West Coast Regional Program Director has also
been in charge of its climate change litigation.)  Danielle managed litigation
at Bluewater Network (before it merged with FOE in 2005), building on the work
of Russell Long and Elisa Lynch who helped to develop AB1493 (the Pavley Bill),
the first legislation regulating automotive greenhouse gas emissions. We worked
together to try to get Ford to take the lead in PHEVs and to lay the groundwork
for legislation and departmental initiatives promoting PHEVs in Sacramento.
Thanks to Danielle and Sara Schedler, since 2006, FOE has hosted the regular
call for PHEV advocates. You can hear Danielle speak at the September 16
conference at Stanford (above). We wish her luck as Executive Director of the
Environmental Law Foundation http://www.envirolow.org in Oakland.

GRAPHICS HELP NEEDED: If you can help turn presentations into large-format
posters for Ron's Vancouver conference, please contact us (Bay Area best but
remote OK too).
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

In advertisements, fuel economy numbers are the ones that count. In auto
showrooms, the window stickers explain these numbers. These stickers are
absolutely critical to plug-in cars' prospects in the marketplace, and have been
a long time coming. We've had five years of excitement about the100+MPG cars we
could someday drive --now they're about to arrive! So the US Environmental
Protection Agency and the Department of Transportation want to get this right.
To help you, we provide links to the proposed stickers and to some of the first
media stories, followed by our broad explanation and our initial specific
technical analysis. We hope those who want to help contribute to the "successful
commercialization of plug-in vehicles ASAP" will take Washington up on its
invitation to comment in the next 60 days.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)

OUR OVERALL REACTION,: The EPA and the DOT's National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration have done an outstanding job. We're glad they've found a way to
show MPG-equivalents. And they've created some effective graphics and ratings to
explain the cost savings and environmental benefits of miles driven in plug-in
vehicles. However, they've made it hard for the public to see what's important
in the proposals and to contribute their views. (See specifics below.)

LET'S HEAR FROM YOU: You can add your comments about our report at
http://www.plugincars.com , where a version of this posting will appear as a
guest column on Tuesday, August 31. And you can transmit your views to the EPA
for these regulations, to apply to all cars starting with model year 2012, via
the box at the bottom of the page at http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/label.htm
(no provision there for attachments).

MEDIA STORIES: If like many people you get the picture best from news stories,
here are some of the first:

* NY TIMES:
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/30/e-p-a-develops-grading-system-for-new\
-car-stickers/ reports on the motivations for the new analyses and reports
initial pushback from the U.S. auto industry, especially on the idea of issues
A-D ratings for different vehicles.
* GM-VOLT.COM:
http://gm-volt.com/2010/08/30/epa-proposes-new-phev-and-ev-fuel-economy-labels-w\
ants-your-comments/ includes a description, links, and many comments.
* HYBRIDCARS.COM (sister site to plugincars.com)
http://www.hybridcars.com/fuel-economy/government-proposes-report-cards-fuel-eco\
nomy-window-stickers-28508.html explains the proposals and provides multiple
label images.
* GREEN CAR ADVISOR
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/08/feds-propose-new-fuel-economy-l\
abels-for-cars-and-trucks-seek-public-input.html provides annotated explanations
of the stickers and discusses how different vehicles would be rated in the
sure-to-be-controversial rankings.
* AUTOBLOG GREEN
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/30/epa-finally-issues-proposed-fuel-economy-la\
bels-for-plug-in-vehi/ compares the two stickers.
* WIRED.COM
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/08/feds-propose-letter-grades-for-vehicle-effi\
ciency/ focuses largely on the letter rankings and their implications.

THE BASIC DOCUMENTS: Your starting point is the documents about the ruling at
http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/label.htm . Here's where understanding the
proposals immediately gets complicated. The site links to two main documents:

* A 7-page brochure designed for the public:
http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/label/420f10049.pdf , which includes two label
options for the five standard vehicle types: gasoline & diesel (this includes
conventional hybrids), electric, plug-in hybrid, flexible-fuel, and compressed
natural gas. A small footnote on the cover page saying that the government is
"also seeking comment on a third label design" sounds like an afterthought.
* Hard to find on the same page is "See All Labels," a second 19-page plain
document  with only images and no explanations, titled "Proposed Fuel Economy
Labels in EPA and DOT Notice of Proposed Rulemaking"
http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/label/label-designs.pdf . Yes, this document
includes that third (relatively inconsequential, most similar to today's) label
design, but more importantly, it ALSO includes both "blended" and "extended
range electric vehicle" (EREV) variants on the PHEV vehicle type.

This second document shows that people who view only the main summary document 
will have an incomplete picture of what's being proposed. While the explanations
emphasize that the numbers used are illustrative, not referring to any
particular car, the ones they picked are illuminate what's missing. Page 4 of
the short brochure shows proposed Option 1 & 2 labels for a PHEV (also described
as a "dual fuel vehicle: gasoline-electricity") with a 50-mile blended
gas/electric operating resulting in a 65MPG equivalent for those first 50 miles,
then 38 MPG with a depleted battery. That same Option 2 graphic is on page 12 of
the second document, at a page labeled "PHEV (predominantly blended type)
(Figure III-12)". But one page before, on page 11, is a page labeled "PHEV,
extended range electric (series) type (Figure III-11)" -- a vehicle type that's
not found in the shorter document. That vehicle has a 98MPG equivalent for its
first 30-miles, then 38MPG. Page 7 shows an Option 1 graphic for a PHEV with an
11-mile EV range.

This all means that the short presentation omits from the main document -- and
doesn't present completely in the long one -- the EREVs/series hybrids that will
come to market first: the Chevy Volt, followed soon by the Fisker Karma. And it
doesn't even present well the Toyota Prius blended PHEV that will follow.
Presumably the EPA/DOT were attempting to simplify the issue -- but too much was
lost.

CALCARS' DETAILED COMMENTS: These are largely the work of our Technology Lead,
Ron Gremban. In the interest of encouraging broad discussion during a week when
it's hard to reach people, we are providing preliminary starting points quickly
and hope they will provoke additional responses.

We are focusing on the 19-page document at
http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/label/label-designs.pdf (which, as described
above, includes separate EREV and blended-PHEV labels for both Label Option 1
and Label Option 2, and adds a Label Option 3 as well), rather than to only the
more limited options shown in the 7-page brochure .

The EPA and DOT have done an outstanding job. These labels are great, and
reflect serious thought and environmental consideration! And inclduing codes
scannable by smartphones, they will empower consumers to find out much more.

The top half (down to the section on 5-year extra fuel cost or savings compared
to an average vehicle) of Label Option 1, for all vehicles, is superb, and
provides maximum incentive for buyers to buy green. We hope these ratings and
fuel savings are included in the final label design. They produce the ratings
that carmakers with many low-ranked vehicles won't want in new car windows in
showrooms! Those savings over years (and the demonstrated long-term higher cost
of low-ranking vehicles) will provide the best reasons for customers to buy
vehicles with high fuel economy and those using clean and cheap electricity.

Although the numbers are placeholders, we suggest a higher price than $2.80 per
gallon for gasoline -- both U.S. and international oil agencies now expect the
price of oil (unlike electricity and natural gas) to increase significantly over
the next five years. And we see a strong argument for using a 36.4 kWh per
gallon high heat value of gasoline rather than the 33.7 kWh low value. (The
extra energy is what's required to vaporize the water vapor in the exhaust,
which might conceivably be condensed and recovered in an extra-efficient
gasoline vehicle.) But these are minor quibbles with an otherwise-outstanding
set of labels.

We see Label Option 2, for all vehicles, as superior to both Label Option 3 and
the bottom of Label Option 1 in laying out the details of vehicle performance.
We strongly recommend combining the top of Label Option 1 with all of Label
Option 2.

The following points are about Label 2's exceptional features and a few
recommendations for minor improvements.

Starting with the gas/diesel vehicle (Figure III-9), the gas pump icon, next to
the MPG figure and the associated annual fuel cost, all offer obvious visual
contrast to the plugs used for EVs and PHEVs. The plots of overall MPG, CO2, and
other pollutants on bar graphs read well, too; and are similar to what consumers
have seen for years on appliances. Displaying only tailpipe emissions may be the
only way to reflect that 'well-to-tank' pollutants vary dramatically between
locations and over time, with sources of electricity becoming increasingly
clean, while more gasoline is starting to come from such high-CO2 sources as tar
sands.

A minor point: throughout, for emissions, we would urge the use grams per
kilometer instead of grams per mile. Most consumers will not relate to the
absolute number anyway, and what is shown already takes a half step with grams
instead of fractional ounces. Why not fully embrace the scientific metric units
used by carmakers and governments everywhere else in the world?

We're delighted to see the gallons per 100 miles figure included. This is a much
more important figure than the dumbed-down miles per gallon measure we've grown
up with. Seeing it alongside MPG on vehicles will improve consumers'
understanding of how fuel economy relates to vehicle size. In fact, taking it
one step further, gallons used driving the typical 15,000 miles per year would
be even better. Then the huge-seeming 50 MPG difference between 50 and 100 MPG
would show up as saving just 150 gallons in a year, while the much
smaller-seeming change when  a 10MPG vehicle gets 20MG would save 750 gallons --
five times as much.

The EREV (Figure III-11) label ably explains a complex concept, The line below
the two MPG boxes, showing a car driving first "All Electric," then "Extended
Range (gas)" is inspired. It clearly shows how the vehicle is powered, with
arrows from the electric and extended range miles to the two MPG boxes with
electric and gasoline icons, and the 240-Volt charge time shown next to a
battery. The "nameplate capacity" of the battery (the basis for federal
incentives), is also of value and could be included inside a larger battery
icon. Crucially, the boxes show both the "cost per year if always run in All
Electric," which an EREV driver rarely exceeding the daily charge range would
approach. And it includes the worst-case "cost per year if always run in Gas
Only" mode. This latter number would apply only for an unusual  driver who
decided not to bother spending 15 seconds plugging and unplugging when an outlet
was available.

The label for blended-mode PHEVs (Figure III-12) is likewise clear. We would
suggest using a color between the electric green and the gasoline yellow to make
the blending more obvious compared to the EREV and pure EVs. And perhaps find a
way to include kWh per 100 miles along with gallons per 100 miles for the
blended mode, so consumers have a way of knowing how much electricity is being
used.

This discussion will continue. We hope many interested parties will weigh in
publicly and to the federal government. Comment about this posting at
http://www.plugincars.com and view the documents and send your views to the EPA
at http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/label.htm .
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --
       Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
      Founder  California Cars Initiative
             http://www.calcars.org
       http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
--  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  -- --

The Volt and the LEAF are coming this fall! Other plug-ins will
follow soon. Will their first owners like them? How will the stories
from satisfied and "happy but wanting more" owners" be heard. Will
they be lost in the noise or among sensationalist and incomplete
anecdotes? What impression will future customers get of the launch,
from social networks or so many media sources? There's one
still-missing ingredient that could significantly improve the chances
of success for this new generation of plug-in vehicles. We at CalCars
have identified it and tried to spark it -- but this is a rock we
haven't been able to push up the hill. We've just spent five
intensive weeks in conversations and email exchanges trying to gain
support for a "LEADING WEB-BASED COMMUNITY WHERE CURRENT AND
POTENTIAL PLUG-IN VEHICLE DRIVERS CAN POST AND SHARE INFORMATION AND
EXPERIENCES." We've gotten encouragement from automakers and others
since the opportunity came up at Plug-In 2010. But the key players
needed to make this happen have either not been able to act quickly.
  From our perspective, even knowing how full their plates are, we
think it's short-sighted not to make this a top priority. Having done
all we can privately, we're releasing our proposal to the 7,118
subscribers of CalCars-News, to those who receive it by RSS feeds,
and to the media that pick up our stories. YOU CAN HELP ACCELERATE
DECISION-MAKING AND SPONSORSHIP. We hope that those among you with
contacts among the large companies and institutions vital to moving
moving this forward -- especially their PR and corporate strategy
executives -- will both forward and advocate for this proposal.

(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)

We start with a THREE-PARAGRAPH SUMMARY, followed by the proposal
we've circulated, including background on how this idea evolved and
details of how it might work. We hope you'll appreciate the scope and
ambition of what we're proposing. We hope you'll agree that its
benefits are so great and that it is so time-sensitive that you will
work to help make it happen! (We've updated and clarified the
proposal from the one privately circulated, deleted names of possible
partners that have not publicly come forward, and for readability
online via email, we've removed much of the  original document's formatting.)

WHAT WE PROPOSE: A consortium create the leading web-based community
where current and potential plug-in vehicle (PEV) drivers can post
and share information and experiences. We envision a "semi-official"
site, independent but cooperatively sponsored by major corporate,
non-governmental, and public organizations, all of whom can be active
partners to help accelerate understanding and enthusiasm -- and sell
many PEVs batteries, motors, circuits, and charging stations.

WHAT'S NEEDED: To launch before the first production vehicles arrive,
we need to start now -- which we can do if we get a commitment for a
total of $125,000 from institutional sponsors from OEMs, utilities,
charging companies and trade associations. We hope they will
recognize the value of this opportunity. CalCars can manage the
project but we don't have to; we're happy to be advisors if any other
entity wants to lead the effort.

WHAT WE DON'T PROPOSE: We see no value in creating yet one more among
the many worthy sites that already exist. Adding a few different
features but not gaining broad buy-in won't help. It's critical that
any effort be supported by the automotive and other companies that
are members of the Electric Drive Transportation Association And
EDTA's emerging National Plug-In Vehicle Initiative
http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/13529/pid/13529
logically could be the umbrella under which such a consumer-focused
community could develop. We're not suggesting we ignore the existing
websites: this could be built in partnership with a company that
understands the value of partnerships, that a "small piece of a big
pie" is better than complete control of its own territory, that's
open to evolution, mergers, and outside investors. And we
re-emphasize that CalCars will be happy if the community comes into
existence even if we're not centrally involved.

BACKGROUND & INTRO FOR AN IDEA WE'VE BEEN PROMOTING FOR ALMOST FOUR YEARS

We might not be nearly as far along in commercializing plug-in cars
were it not for: 1. the advocacy efforts of drivers of the previous
generation of EVs; 2. the open-source initiatives for Prius
conversions; and 3. the excitement created by hearing from drivers of
those vehicles. All these helped spark the broad campaign promoting
PHEVs and EVs. All were amplified by online communities that foster
communication and action. Now that we're about to get new cars, their
impact will continue to be shaped by social media. The auto industry
and its allies can be part of that not only on their own but with partners.

It was clear to Felix Kramer, both as a member and participant in
online discussion groups about PEVs since 2002, through his
experiences as CalCars founder, and as the world's first consumer
owner of a PHEV, that the successful commercialization of PEVs could
benefit from the online world far more than what would automatically
grow out of existing communities and new websites. He also drew upon
his experience in the 1980s as a co-founder of user groups for
computer users and desktop publishers, and in the birth of the Web in
the mid-90s followed by the dot.com heyday, to bring forward the idea
of driver communities.

Back in early 2007, in conversations with some stakeholders, CalCars
began exploring the idea of a national all-vehicle plug-in drivers
user group. We circulated a short proposal, which led to the expanded
update of that effort we're promoting in 2010.

That year, CalCars engaged in discussions with one large automotive
website. It agreed to partner on the initiative and commit some staff
and development time. We then attempted to secure funds from it and
others. (In retrospect, our effort may have been premature -- we were
so far from mass-production.) When we were unable to raise the money,
we put the proposal on the back burner -- until 2010.

We shelved the project with considerable regret, knowing how
important it was. Periodically we had discussions with possible
funders (including joint proposals to USDOE for stimulus funding in
April 2009) -- but have not yet located anyone willing to take a leading role.

At the closing session of the July Plug-In 2010 conference, Felix's
proposal to create a broadly-sponsored "semi-official" drivers' group
was greeted with a strong round of applause, followed by
encouragement from panelists and audience members that he (and
CalCars) take the lead in developing the project. Felix made clear he
would welcome the opportunity to help and advise a collaborative
effort -- and that it needed to be broad to succeed. That said,
CalCars is willing to be a prime mover if others join with
significant time and resources. With adequate levels of support for
staff time, CalCars could lead the effort, along with another social
media/publishing partner.

We emphasized we didn't need to run the show or get the credit; we
welcomed anyone who steps up to make this happen. Since then, we've
had discussions with several energetic possible specialists in
building national campaigns using social media; partnering with one
can help us get this project running quickly. One in particular is
quite interested [discussed in private emails].

The biggest hurdle remains to gain sponsors and funding in this
challenging environment. IF THIS MONTH, FIVE COMPANIES/ORGANIZATIONS
WILL STEP FORWARD AND EACH SEED THIS EFFORT WITH $25,000 and agree to
help find additional sponsors, we can then get working very rapidly
on design/launch/partnerships as well as enlisting additional
sponsors from the constituencies listed below. We think this
investment will pay off enormously for all those whose businesses
require a rapid acceleration of demand for PEVs, and for a society
that needs to start getting off fossil fuels ASAP.

We would hate to miss a unique window of opportunity! We originally
said if we didn't get a strong response by Aug. 16, we would
circulate this proposal very broadly in the hope that someone else
can make it happen quickly. We then held off until mid-September to do so.

We welcome your reactions as soon as possible.

IT'S ALMOST NOW-OR-NEVER IF WE'RE GOING TO START THIS IMPORTANT &
VALUABLE PROJECT!

The first mass-production PEVs in many years are arriving soon;
people are getting test drives and will soon have their own cars.
This is the best-ever opportunity to bring to large audiences
compelling messages and experiences about the benefits of PEVs.

Media coverage about choices, features, and benefits is building
rapidly; until December the focus will be the first vehicles. We can
make it easy for the next wave to be happy human interest stories.

Many people have questions and everyone's looking for answers and
experts. Once people pick social networks -- even free ones -- moving
involves switching costs and loyalty issues. It will of course be
better than nothing if this community arrives a year from now -- or
if one of today's sites emerges as most successful -- but we'll still
be missing many important features and benefits listed below, and
we'll have lost precious opportunities in the first months to shape
the new plug-in electric world.

WHAT DO TODAY'S ONLINE DRIVER DISCUSSIONS LOOK LIKE?

Feeding off the breaking news and the enthusiasm for PEVs, we're
seeing a proliferation of many worthy, well-intentioned and
well-executed efforts. Yet we wonder if any will be able to scale and
evolve to achieve the goals we aim for, and to emerge as the
authoritative site.

These range from single-vehicle-focused sites started by individual
enthusiasts as stand-alones or at Yahoo Groups and Google Groups, to
green or plug-in areas at existing automotive sites, as well as
sections sponsored by green car news and advocacy sites, and entirely
new sites devoted only to plug-in vehicles.

Some sites now or later intend to gain revenue from advertising or
from lead-generation. In general, the for-profit,  non-profit, and
volunteer-created sites lack staff or have not allocated resources to
monitor postings for highly off-topic, "troll," or otherwise
destructive postings, though some invite users to "rate" quality of
postings or "report" violators of community standards or terms of
service. We don't know of any whose distribution/promotion strategies
include spotlighting and announce newsworthy discussions. Many are
hard to navigate, fail to show up in web searches, and have "buried" archives.

The "migration path" is not yet clear for existing EV and
PHEV-conversion owners as they continue to drive their old vehicles
and are among the first buyers of new mass-production vehicles. The
enthusiasm, dedication, and storehouse of practical experience of
this unique group of idealistic early adopters can help jump-start the effort.

SOME CHARACTERISTICS WE LOOK FOR IN A PLUG-IN OWNERS AND DRIVERS COMMUNITY:

* A one-stop community for people motivated by any or all goals of:
saving money, ensuring energy security, cutting climate pollution,
owning the latest gadget, or driving the most fun cars.
* A "watering hole," where longtime and recent drivers share their
experiences, observations and tips.
* An outward-facing, welcoming site for wannabes and newbies -- those
in any way considering buying a PEV -- offering basic information and
the opportunity to follow the latest discussions about PEVs.
* A pipeline to connect them with enthusiastic PEV owners to answer
more questions and experience electric driving.
* A transparent, open-source style effort focused on reducing
barriers to information exchange, requiring no registration to post
to maximize free discussions.
* A mechanism for millions of people to register as "handraisers" for
vehicle types and models that may initially be in short supply.
* A window on plugged-in life, previewing a world where everyday
transportation is electrified and powered by renewable energy.

WEBSITE/TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS:

* Ideally, piggybacking onto an existing high-traffic website, to
reduce overhead and startup costs and to ensure that it reaches
audiences beyond those who are already plug-in savvy.
* At the same time, reachable directly at PlugInDrivers.com with
direct access by vehicle type to related vehicle-specific URLs.
(CalCars owns and will happily make available this and other relevant URLs.)
* Lightly moderated by Hosts ("curators") who monitor postings and
flag/highlight important/insightful discussions both on the site and
to other audiences, journalists, and social media outlets.
* Easy posting by registered owners/drivers, with all postings
public; unregistered visitors asking questions/making comments to be
moderated; site facilitating private communications among registered users.
* Easily and deeply searchable and customizable for both first-time
and frequent users.
* Including microblogging capabilities (Twitter/Facebook/Tumblr) and
smartphone integration.

CONTENT AND SITE DESIGN:

* Range of vehicles: BEVs, PHEVs, EREVs, 2/3/4-wheelers, light,
medium, and heavy-duty vehicles.
* Topics including driver behavior and experience, charging
considerations, effect of different feedback designs, cost and MPG
issues, all-electric and blended variants, expectations and
limitations. Plus comments and future wish-lists of features,
performance, usability and marketing for PEVs.
* Anecdotal data and postings including human interest, driver blogs,
slice-of-life print and video stories (data-mines for media coverage
and academic interviews/studies).
* Profile/photo/MPG results eventually including a data reporting
system developed by academic/technology partners.
* Quantified data from both driver input and automatic
instrumentation -- if resources are available or technical partners
want to showcase their tools, data can be aggregated and analyzed to
best communicate the performance and benefits of technologies and vehicles.
* Developed or hosted print and video collateral created by partners
answering such basic questions as: are EVs cleaner; won't the grid be
overloaded; are batteries safe/long-lasting/recyclable?
* Tools to estimate fuel savings and TCO (total cost of ownership),
given individual driving profiles, for vehicle types and models
(perhaps partnering with existing calculators like those at USEPA and
ProjectGetReady).
* Wiki-style vehicle FAQs, driving tips, opinion/experience surveys,
real-time chats (syndicated with partners); co-sponsor and promote
local real-world community and national events.
* "Find a PEV Driver in My Community" and "Get an EV Ride" matching
services linked from multiple partners' portals.
* Syndicated content and possible eventual print version of some
content with media/industry partners.
* Pointers to external resources at partnering and other sites.
* Some topics left to others who may be better equipped to handle
them, including: dealer-level experiences, conversion technologies,
emerging technologies, and other fuel/energy sources.

BENEFITS TO THE PEV INDUSTRY (OEMS, SUPPLY CHAIN, SERVICE PROVIDERS):

* Inspire potential car buyers to become plug-in customers.
* Freely give immediate market intelligence and feedback from a
comprehensive site and large population on what's working and what
needs to be fixed -- both for individual companies and
locally/nationally (e.g. charging infrastructure).
* Gain goodwill from current and prospective customers: continue the
transformative "buyer-push" model that has helped advance PEVs by
giving members confidence their voices will be heard to help shape
future automotive directions.
* Provide case studies, human interest stories, topic threads to give
corporate PR departments leads to connect with interview subjects and
help media to track evolving stories.
* Point effectively to rapid third-party and owner/driver responses
to inaccurate media stories.

BENEFITS OF A "SEMI-OFFICIAL" SPONSORED SITE:

* A single collaborative space where many key players participate
will help commercialization efforts gain strength and momentum.
* A trusted source by its breadth and openness will reassure many
audiences who search online and encounter multiple sites.
* A "go-to" place for success stories and for rapid responses to
inaccurate, misleading or confusing media reports, to negative news
about vehicles and technologies, and to "incidents."
* Anecdotal and scientific data for research and analysis by
academics, fleets, government, industry.
* An ability to coordinate with other sites internationally and
perhaps eventually expand globally.

CAUTIONS FOR A "SEMI-OFFICIAL" SPONSORED SITE:

* If not done well (and inclusively), can be seen as competing with
independent efforts or companies (including those that are "left out"
if others join an partner).
* Will need to reassure all audiences of its editorial independence
from sponsors and funders.

BENEFITS TO SOCIAL MEDIA PARTNER/PUBLISHER/DISTRIBUTOR:

* Put publisher on the cutting edge as the leading venue for
discussion of the world's cleanest mass-production vehicles and a
showcase for the auto industry of the future.
* Drive traffic to company's other online and print divisions.

STRUCTURE FOR INDEPENDENCE AND RAPID RESPONSE:

* Rolling launch to establish position and evolve/improve as the
vehicles begin to arrive.
* Ownership of site to be determined; multiple business models
possible beyond sponsorships; fundraising also by partners and sponsors.
* Registration free for introductory period, eventual low one-time or
annual membership fee.
* A team with full editorial authority:
Publisher/Editor-in-Chief/Managing Editor/Columnists/Technical &
Research Advisors/Content Coordinators, Hosts & Moderators, Marketing
& PR, Technology, Usability.
* An advisory/consultative board with representatives from
Industry/policy/media.
* Some team members part-time; some may divide time with publisher's
existing operation.
* Startup costs through year-end approximately $250,000; estimated
annual operating budget $250-500,000 for management, editorial, technology.

POSSIBLE SPONSORS, CO-SPONSORS, ADVISORS, FUNDERS (THE FIRST FOUR ARE
THE PRIMARY GROUP; OTHERS  ARE ALPHABETICAL):
* Auto industry (OEMs, component makers, service providers)
* Charging infrastructure (suppliers and operators)
* Electric Drive Transportation Association and its National Plug-In
Vehicle Initiative
* Plug-In Organizations: CalCars/Electric Auto Association/Plug-in America
* Air Quality Management Districts
* Auto associations
* Community-focused: Silicon Valley Leadership Group, ProjectGet Ready
* Companies: Google, SAP, GE, other technology enablers
* Government Agencies (federal/state/municipal depts. of energy,
environment, transportation)
* Non-Governmental Organizations: Friends of the Earth, GreenAmerica,
Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Union of Concerned Scientists
* US National Labs
* University research and policy centers
* Utilities; individual companies and EPRI; EEI; APPA, NARUC, NRECA.

With your support, we can create a unique and powerful institution to
expand today's creative partnerships between industry, organizations,
and customers.

WE URGE ALL THOSE IN FAVOR OF SUCH A PLUG-IN DRIVERS & OWNERS
COMMUNITY TO COMMUNICATE YOUR VIEWS TO EDTA'S NATIONAL PLUG-IN
VEHICLE INITIATIVE
http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/13529/pid/13529 , TO
THE PR AND STRATEGY EXECUTIVES AT GM, NISSAN AND OTHER AUTOMAKERS, TO
SUPPLIER COMPANIES, AND TO  YOUR LOCAL UTILITY. URGE THEM TO SPONSOR
AND FUND SUCH AN EFFORT. SEND COPIES OF WHAT YOU WRITE TO
INFO@... . (SIMPLY EMAILING TO CALCARS CONTACT NAMES OR
SUGGESTIONS FOR WHAT YOU'D HOPE CALCARS WOULD DO WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS EFFECTIVE AS GETTING OTHER ORGANIZATIONS INVOLVED!)

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        Felix Kramer  fkramer@...
       Founder  California Cars Initiative
              http://www.calcars.org
        http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
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