Even as we get closer to new mass-produced PHEVs, those converting
vehicles continue work that shows future possibilities and has a
strong impacat on important decisionmakers. Who would have ever
expected to see a PHEV Hummer? Who'd have guessed the leading state
government air quality regulatory agency would find a way to
accommodate conversions? Who'd have predicted independent engineers
would invent a way to get a Prius driving all-electrically at 70 MPH?
For this and other conversion stories, read on...
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
CALCARS' BROAD PERSPECTIVE ON CONVERSIONS: Since we announced our
first conversion of a Prius (and before that as we spotlighted Dr.
Andy Frank's conversions of multiple vehicles), we've always seen
their value as primarily strategic, helping to build awareness and
support for mass-produced plug-in cars. But as our understanding has
grown that new plug-ins won't contribute significantly to overall
petroleum use for 10-15 years, we're now emphasizing the potential of
the companies building businesses around conversions to go beyond hybrids.
The small aftermarket companies offer previews of a giant new
industry to convert millions of internal combustion engine (ICE)
vehicles to plug in. We're working to make the case for broad
government and corporate support of that approach as a second path to
achieving all the benefits of electrifying transportation. For these
retrofits, our goal is tested, validated, warranted designs, ideally
done in partnership with carmakers. In April CalCars released an
eight-page White Paper on the subject. Now we have a new 21-slide
presentation, downloadable
at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-beyond-new-plug-ins.pdf that
includes slides on some of the small ICE-conversion companies that we
hope will emerge as players in this far larger opportunity. Links to
both are also at the top of the CalCars home page.
HUMMER: THE ULTIMATE COUNTER-INTUITIVE CONVERSION: When we said, "the
bigger the vehicle the more the benefit in switching to electricity,"
we weren't thinking of Hummers, which may go down as one of the
follies of the first decade of this century. Yet now Raser
Technologies has taken an H3 (the smallest Hummer) and turned it into
a series PHEV with a 40-mile all-electric range. The most significant
aspect of this vehicle may be that GM cooperated with Raser and
integrator FEV, making available design information that helped them
in the conversion and an efficient EcoTec engine for range extension.
We hope this is a preview of automakers recognizing that conversions
can provide them and their dealers with a revenue stream for cars
they've already sold!
See details at
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/05/plug-in-hummer-satisfies-americ\
as-need-for-large-vehicles-says-sen-hatch.html
and
http://www.gizmag.com/the-100-miles-per-gallon-plug-in-hybrid-hummer/11591
and an "open road" video at
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/05/22/americans-need-big-trucks-says-sen-hatch\
/
This Utah company, which promotes its efficient electric motor,
brought the car to Washington DC with the help of Senator Orrin
Hatch. Then Raser gave a drive to California Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger (who was instrumental in encouraging AM General and GM
to bring the giant military Humvees to consumers). See report and
video of Sacramento press conference at
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2009/05/29/463397.html . Then the
vehicle, which gets 100MPG for 60 miles/charge, came to San Francisco
and San Jose. Now that the Hummer line is being sold to a Chinese
company, Siichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co., at a time
when the Chinese government is promoting electrification of vehicles
and raising taxes on vehicles with large engines
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-06/05/content_8254577.htm ,
it's not clear whether this conversion may be a factor in Hummer's future.
50,000 PICK-UP TRUCK CONVERSIONS BY 2013? Electric Motors Corporation
and RV manufacturer Gulf Stream Coach have announced they are looking
for federal funds to build a company converting pickup
trucks.
http://www.trucktrend.com/features/news/2009/163_news090818_electric_motors_corp\
oration_light_duty_electric_pickup_trucks/index.html#They
showed the Hi-Pa Drive F-150 at the 2008 Specialty Equipment Market
Association (SEMA) show.
http://www.trucktrend.com/autoshows/coverage/163_2008_sema_coverage/2009_ford_f1\
50_by_hi_pa_drive.html
. They expect to have prototypes in September and look to invest $80
million and create 1,600 jobs by 2012 in hard-hit Elkhart County,
Indiana, the "RV Capital of the World."
PRIUS CONVERSIONS NOW WITH LARGE NICKEL-METAL HYDRIDE BATTERIES: We
(and those who've driven Toyota RAV4-EVs for over 100,000 miles) have
long felt that NiMH's day was not over: like advanced lead-acid
solutions, this proven technology still has life (as well as proven
safety and durability records). Now Plug-In Conversions Corp. (PICC).
of Poway, CA, which recently received an investment from large
international battery maker Gold Peak, has a solution that replaces
the original Prius battery. Its $12,500 conversion may be the design
with the longest EV range. PICC has tested its system at Argonne
National Labs with positive results including SULEV-level emissions,
and intends to fully crash-test and validate its designs. PICC
announced its new offering this week at the Advanced Battery
Conference; its press release is reprinted at
http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=21189 , and see an EVWorld
interview with company founder Kim Adelman at
http://evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?authorid=12&blogid=753&archive=1 .
This and other retrofits are likely to be eligible for up to 10%
federal tax credits, but we have not yet heard of anyone getting one
for a conversion. We've partially updated our "How to Get a PHEV"
page http://www.calcars.org/howtoget.html to reflect these new designs.
SPEED BREAKTHROUGH ON PRIUS CONVERSIONS: Several aftermarket
converters have found ways to circumvent the Prius limitation that
starts the engine above 34 MPH, raising that number above 50MPH. In
"forced stealth" mode. the car has to be turned off and restarted to
go at higher speeds--hardly simple or practical -- and there are
potential emissions complications. Now Chicago's Ewert Electroniics
has announced a proprietary electronic solution that enables some
converted Priuses to drive up to 70 MPH all-electrically, and in
general consistently exceed 100MPG at highways speeds during the
battery's range. (The company was co-founded by Chris Ewert, team
member for CalCars' second Maker Faire conversion in 2007 and key
member of the CalCars-co-sponsored Open SourcElectric Auto
Association PHEV Discussion Group.) Ewert has an exclusive
distribution agreement with PICC (above), in part because its
replacement battery can provide more energy to the system than do
add-on-battery conversions. News at the EVWorld URLs above and at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/06/picc-20090610.html and at
messages 3623 and 3625 at the EAA-PHEV discussion list
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/eaa-phev/ , where you can also
see technical discussions.
CASH FOR CLUNKERS LEGISLATION: With compromises between Congressional
sponsors of multiple "scrappage" bills, successive versions of the
legislation are increasingly disappointing. The goal of boosting
demand for new vehicles has generally eclipsed the motivation of
improving fuel economy or cutting CO2 and other emissions. While our
White Paper, "Cash for Clunkers Paves the Way to Retrofit Gas
Guzzlers" http://www.calcars.org/scrap-or-retrofit.html shows a
replacement vehicle needs to have twice the MPG of the scrapped
vehicle to have a net energy benefit (including the embedded energy
in building the vehicle), the proposed legislation (House, Senate
bills and the provisions included in Markey Waxman) requires far
less. See an update, including a report on Senator Feinstein's role
and comments by environmentalists,
at
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/04/BU9O1808JK.DTL
and an update on the measure that just passed in the House at
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/09/news/economy/cash_for_clunkers/index.htm
. CalCars has suggested the measures expand to make the payments of
up to $4,500/vehicle available to converters as well as crushers, but
we regret that we haven't had the resources or staff to effectively
intervene in the discussions.
POSITIVE OUTCOME ON CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD REGULATION OF
CONVERSIONS: If you've been following this issue from past postings
at CalCars-News, you'll be glad to hear the relatively happy ending.
In late January the California Air Resources Board considered
proposed regulations for hybrid conversions. CalCars and others made
the case that these regulations were too early and would put small
innovative companies out of business. CARB then OKd a delay for some
months to allow for discussions with the aftermarket companies. At
its May 28 hearing, the Board reached a decision, a compromise
between its staff recommendations and the provisions proposed by
converters, that the companies say they can live with. First a look
at the testimony at the May hearing from auto industry
representatives that shows how far we've come, then some details on
the results.
See http://www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bccommlog.php?listname=phev09
which includes the testimony at both the January and the May
hearings. (Or see our a single file with all the May comments
combined to make them easier to read, plus links to several PDFs,
available at http://www.calcars.org/all-may-phev09-comments.html .)
We draw your attention especially to comments #174 from Ford and 175
from Toyota and 178 from GM. We're especially happy with this from
posting #166 from the Alliance of Auto Manufacturers, the trade
association of 11 carmakers:
"With respect to plug-in vehicle conversions, the Alliance
understands the early interest in PHEVs and can support reasonable
methods for expanding the introduction of this relatively new
technology in the US vehicle market. Conversions as a mechanism can,
in general, have a place in our market to help promote the growth of
a technology and the infrastructure that supports it. However, it is
imperative for conversions to be achieved in an environmentally
responsible and safe manner."
In general, they are sympathetic to the impulse that leads people to
convert cars, while of course warning that any failures or negative
experiences with conversions could represent a setback for the
industry, and emphasizing that PHEVs are best coming from
mass-production with full engineering, testing and validation, and
all saying they plan to deliver plug-in vehicles.
Here's CalCars Technology Lead Ron Gremban's report on the event, as
posted at http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/eaa-phev/message/3605
History was made at the California Air Resources Board (CARB) hearing
last Thursday, May 28, 2009. The board adopted rules for the
certification and sale of plug-in conversions of hybrid vehicles,
thereby legitimatizing the physical process that we at CalCars
started five years ago and that eaa-phev.org has been all about. We
commend the CARB, along with the rest of California's government, for
being vigilant about continuing to clean our air while supporting and
legitimatizing the nascent plug-in vehicle conversion business that
could grow to become the most effective means for California,
national, and worldwide reductions in oil consumption and
transportation greenhouse gas emissions for the next two decades.
Though of course no one got everything they wanted, the board did
modify their staff's latest proposal in two ways very helpful to
conversion businesses before accepting it. I, along with several
conversion kit companies, testified. Two people from 3Prong Power
spoke, about the big picture and about how the pollution potential of
larger than staff-recommended numbers of Tier 1 and 2 conversions
could be minimized by retrofitting them to Tier 3 once the
manufacturer has received a Tier 3 certification.
A main point of my testimony was that HEV-to-PHEV conversions are
important not only for all the usual reasons, but also because they
presage the coming ICE-to-PHEV conversions that have the prospect of
ramping up to significantly reduce the oil consumption of the
nation's existing fleet of 250 million light vehicles far sooner than
we can possibly replace them with new plug-in vehicles.
John White of Hymotion responded, when asked, that they currently
have around 480 conversions in California, but that they have 3,800
more orders as well as potentially tens of thousands of more yet as
part of the stimulus package's 'Clean Cities' program, which requires
CARB to act immediately because those conversions must be certified
by California or the federal government, which doesn't yet have a
certification program at all. This forced the board's hand in acting
immediately.
Though the board acted directly only upon Hymotion's testimony to
decrease the warranty requirement for a supplemental conversion
battery from 10 to 5 years, I believe everyone's efforts were of
value. The other change the board made was to increase the number of
conversions that could be sold under the laxest Tier 1 rules from
just 10 to 50. Tier 2 is then vehicle #51-100, after which full
testing, warranty, and durability assurance requirements apply.
COMMENTS FROM COMPANIES we gathered since the ruling:
* LUSCIOUS GARAGE (hybrid service and PHEV installations) Carolyn
Coquillette wrote: Luscious Garage recognizes the Air Resources Board
for its participation in the plug-in hybrid movement, promoting the
technology's march from demonstration to production, and protecting
Californians against conventional criteria pollutants as well as
carbon dioxide.
* POULSEN HYBRID (ICE-to-PHEV conversion company) Frank Kuchinski
wrote: The plug-in hybrid conversion industry wants to be a part of
President Obama's goal of putting one million plug-in hybrids on the
road by 2015. In the future, regulations for ICE conversions need to
be balanced so that this goal is obtainable.
* 3PRONG POWER (aftermarket conversion company) excerpt from its
letter to its mailing list: After we testified, the CARB board voted
on our suggestion to increase the Tier I cap to 100 vehicles and
ended up with a split vote, 4 - 4, which meant the measure did not
pass. But then there was a second vote, on increasing the Tier I cap
to 50 vehicles. This one did pass, on a 6 - 2 vote in our favor.
Even though 50 is not all we asked for, it will allow us to continue
offering Plug In Hybrid conversions in California while we raise the
resources to complete the full laboratory emissions testing. It is
extremely rare for the Air Resources Board to grant this type of
concession; in fact, it might be the first time in history. We are
very pleased that the CARB board recognized the unique potential of
Plug In Hybrids and was willing to allow for unprecedented
flexibility in their certification process, to encourage small,
innovative California businesses such as ours.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Here's the press announcement and the full agenda
of the second annual Plug-In conference,
co-sponsored by California's utilities, the
Electric Power Research Institute, and Silicon
Valley Leadership Group. This is the West Coast
conference where everyone in the industry goes
(for our coverage of last year's event, see
several late July-early August postings at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive. We'll have
an information booth and we'll be moderating and
presenting in a second day panel, "Plug-In
Grassroots and Legislative Advocacy." We
encourage you to sign up to attend or exhibit now!
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
Registration Opens for Plug-In 2009 Conference & Exposition
International Conference on Plug-In Hybrids,
Taking Place in Long Beach August 10-13
To Help Drive Plug-In Industry Forward
Looking for an opportunity to learn about the
latest technological advances, market research
and policy initiatives shaping the future of
plug-in hybrid electric transportation? Then
register today for the Plug-In 2009 Conference &
Exposition (http://www.plugin2009.com/), the
second annual international conference taking
place in Long Beach, Calif., from Aug. 10-13, 2009.
With President Barack Obama calling for 1 million
plug-in hybrids to be on our roads within the
next several years and the stimulus bill
directing $2-billion-plus toward investments
within plug-in-related technology development,
infrastructure and deployment, Plug-In 2009 will
bring together a “who’s who” of industry
stakeholders to discuss and collaborate on next
steps in areas such as research, vehicle
technology, infrastructure requirements, policies
and regulations, and market development.
Representatives from automotive manufacturers,
component suppliers, electric utilities,
government agencies, academia and the
environmental community should make plans to
attend to share best practices, advance policies,
network, hear from industry leaders and see the
latest innovations associated with plug-in
technology – including vehicles and supporting
electricity infrastructure – on the exposition floor.
The content-rich agenda for Plug-In 2009 includes
three plenary sessions, a pre-conference battery
workshop, a pre-conference plug-in readiness
workshop, 21 breakout sessions and a public night.
Plug-in 2009 will build on the highly successful
inaugural 2008 conference, which attracted more
than 650 attendees, 35 exhibiting companies and
more than 100 media representatives.
PLUG-IN 2009
AUGUST 10-13, 2009
Long Beach Convention Center, Long Beach, CA
www.plugin2009.com
This second annual international conference will
showcase the latest technological advances,
market research and policy initiatives shaping
the development of plug-in hybrid electric
transportation. Attendees will learn about the
most recent technical research, the business case
for plug-ins, the impact of current regulations,
and clean-tech entrepreneurs’ ideas to enhance
and expand this market. In addition, the
exposition floor will feature the latest
innovations associated with plug-in technology,
including vehicles, as well as supporting electricity infrastructure.
Event organizers include the Electric Power
Research Institute and the Silicon Valley
Leadership Group. Register today at
http://www.plugin2009.com/registration.html. For
exhibit information, log onto
http://www.plugin2009.com/exposition.html. To see the agenda online, visit
http://www.plugin2009.com/agenda.html.
MONDAY, AUGUST 10
2 pm - 6 pm
Pre-Conference Workshops on battery technology
and on charging infrastructure technology and planning
TUESDAY, AUGUST 11
Opening Plenary Session: “Building a Plug-In Future”
Moderator: Carl Guardino, CEO, Silicon Valley Leadership Group
* Bob Foster, Mayor of Long Beach*
* Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco
* TBD, South Coast Air Quality Management District
* Paul De Martini, Vice President, Advanced
Technology, Southern California Edison
* Steve Specker, President & CEO, Electric Power Research Institute
Plenary Session Panel: “First to Market – The Arrival of Plug-In Vehicles”
Moderator: Mark Duvall, Electric Power Research Institute
* Tony Posawatz, Vehicle Line Director, Global
Electric Vehicles & Chevrolet Volt, General Motors Corporation
* Commissioner James Boyd, California Energy Commission
* Mark Perry, Director, Product Planning &
Advanced Technology Strategy, Nissan North America, Inc.
* TBD, South Coast Air Quality Management District
Luncheon Panel: “Telling Stories: Conversations
with Consumers about PHEVs,” The UC Davis Consumer Research Project
Moderator: Tom Turrentine, University of California at Davis
* Ken Kurani
* Nicolette Caperello
* Jonn Axsen
* Tai Stillwater
1A: EV and PHEV Batteries: Status and Prospects
* Dr. Kuniaki Tatsumi, National Institute of
Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)
* Dr. Klaus Brandt, Gaia Akkumulatorenwerke
* Dr. Ralph Brodd, Broddarp of Nevada Electrochemical Consultation Service
1B: Infrastructure Impacts of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
* Dr. Arindam Maitra, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* Chris Yang, University of California at Davis
* Michael Rowand, Duke Energy
1C: Seamless Technology Rollout
* Joel Pointon, San Diego Gas & Electric Company
& Monica Moriarty, Sacramento Municipal Utility District
* Robert Graham, Southern California Edison
Mike Waters, Progress Energy
* Britta Gross, General Motors Corporation
2A: Battery Systems: Integration and Operation
* Alvaro Masias, Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, Inc.
* Dr. Peter Pichler, Magna-Steyr *
* General Motors Corporation
* Ford Motor Company
2B: Standards and Requirements
* Rich Scholer, Ford Motor Company
* Jose Salazar, Southern California Edison
* Ron Thompson, Eaton Corporation
2C: Public Support for Plugging In
* Dave Modisette, CalETC
* Peter Ward, California Energy Commission*
* Dennis A. Smith, U.S. Department of Energy, Clean Cities Program*
* Joah Iannotta, U.S. Government Accountability Office*
Public Night
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 12
3A: Electric Drive Systems
* Stuart Evans, Delta-Q Technologies
* Kathryn Miles, EETrex, Inc.
3B: Electricity as a Low Carbon Fuel
* Sonia Yeh, University of California at Davis
* Marcus Alexander, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* Eladio Knipping, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* TBD, South Coast AQMD
3C: Learning from Experience – Infrastructure for Plug-In Vehicles
* Rue Phillips, SunPower Electric
* David Packard, ClipperCreek
4A: Vehicle Testing
* Jordan Smith, Southern California Edison & Bryan Coley, Southern Company
* Jim Francfort, Idaho National Laboratory
* Kevin Nesbitt, University of California at Davis
* Ed Innes, Manitoba Hydro
5B: Smart Grid Integration
* Chris Chen, San Diego Gas & Electric Company
* Saul Zambrano, Pacific Gas and Electric Company
5C: Plug-In Grassroots and Legislative Advocacy
* Felix Kramer, CalCars
* Jay Friedland, Plug In America
* Anne Korin, Set America Free Coalition
6A: Non-Road Electric Transportation
* Andra Rogers, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* Eladio Knipping, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* Charlie Flynn, CenterPoint Energy
* Ben Chavdarian, Port of Long Beach
* Jamie Knapp, J Knapp Communications
6B: Smart Charging Technologies
* George Bellino, General Motors Corporation
* Sunil Chhaya, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* Allan Schurr, IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
* Richard Lowenthal, Coulomb Technologies
6C: Scaling Up from an Idea to Production
* Tom Gage, AC Propulsion
* John Waters, Bright Automotive
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13 8:30-Noon
7A: Battery Electric Vehicles
* Chrysler Corporation
* David Patterson, Mitsubishi Research and Design America
* Ford Motor Company
7B: Ideas for Public Infrastructure
* Takafumi Anegawa, Tokyo Electric Power Company
* Serge Roy, Hydro-Que´bec
* E´lectricite´ de France
7C: Medium and Heavy Duty PHEV Electrification
* Jordan Smith, Southern California Edison
* Joe Dalum, Odyne
* Matthew Smith, Navistar
Infrastructure Plenary Session Panel
Moderator: Mark Duvall, Electric Power Research Institute
* Bill Boyce, Sacramento Municipal Utility District
* Richard Lowenthal, Coulomb Technologies
* Sven Thesen, Better Place
* Ron Thompson, Eaton Corporation
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Here's information on three upcoming events: an
all-day workshop Weds, July 15 in San Francisco
with an all-star lineup of presenters -- you can
attend or watch online; Plug In America's Benefit
Party at a beautiful winery August 9 in the San
Francisco Bay Area; and additional details about
Plug-In 2009 in Long Beach August 10-13. (This is
the last week for early bird discounted
registrations for this event.) All three events
will shortly be updated at http://www.calcars.org/events.html
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
* CPUC Workshop -- Plug in Electric Vehicle Integration Issues
July 15, 2009 10:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.
Auditorium, California Public Utilities
Commission, 505 Van Ness Ave., San Francisco, CA 94102
Agenda:
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/30DEB4E2-1904-4AAA-9317-738840927867/0/Smart\
GridWorkshop4070909F.pdf
According to some projections, electric cars
could transform our transportation system,
revitalize our aging power grid, and help
California achieve its goals to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions. This workshop explores the
potential for electric vehicles, how electric
vehicles could interact with the Smart Grid, and
what steps, if any, state and local government
agencies should take to support electric vehicles
as a cleaner alternative to conventional combustion fueled vehicles.
Each section of the agenda will begin with a
brief presentation (i.e. five minutes) by each
panel member. The presentations will be followed
by discussion moderated by Administrative Law Judge Timothy Sullivan.
A video webcast of the workshop is at
http://www.californiaadmin.com/cgi-bin/cpuc.cgi
(this is the correct URL; an incorrect one has been distributed)
Presentations will be on the web for viewing at
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/smartgrid.htm.
Welcome and Opening Comments 10:00 a.m.10:15 a.m.
Commissioner Rachelle Chong and other officials
10:15 a.m.12:00 p.m. The Perfect Storm for
Electric Vehicle Market Growth in California?
* What is the expected growth of the electric
vehicle market in California (including light
duty, medium duty, heavy duty, and off road)?
* Why would a consumer want to own an electric vehicle?
* What are the environmental benefits and
negative impacts of relying on electric vehicles?
* How does electricity compare to other
alternative transportation fuels, such as natural gas?
Panelists:
* Saul Zambrano, Pacific Gas & Electric
* Chelsea Sexton – Founder of Lightning Rod Foundation and Plug in America
* Simon Mui, Natural Resources Defense Council
* William Zobel, Sempra Utilities
LUNCH BREAK 12:00 p.m. - 1:30 p.m.
PEV Showcase: Vehicle and vendor participants: *
Southern California Edison (SCE), (Ford Motors,
Ford Escape Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)
* Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), (AC Propulsion,
eBox; Mitsubishi Motors, iMiEV) * San Diego Gas &
Electric (SDG&E), (A123/Hymotion Conversion,
Toyota Prius) * Better Place, (Battery swapping
video demonstration, Nissan Rogue) * Coulomb
Technologies, Inc. * Tesla Motors (Tesla Motors,
Tesla Roadster) * Clipper Creek, Inc.
1:30 p.m.- 2:30 p.m. Paving the Way for Plug in Electric Vehicles
* What models do we have for charging infrastructure?
* What are the technological barriers to growth
in the electric vehicle market?
* What technical standards have been established
to ensure that charging equipment will be safe and easy to use?
* What steps should the CPUC take to ensure
development of efficient and cost effective charging infrastructure?
* How will utilities need to prepare for the
added electricity demand that will accompany widespread electric vehicle use?
Panelists:
* Rich Scholer, Ford Motors, Society of Automotive Engineers
* Marcus Alexander, Electric Power Research Institute
* Professor Andy Frank, UC Davis, Efficient Drivetrains, Inc.
* Jason Wolf, Better Place
* Richard Lowenthal, CEO, Coulomb Technologies, Inc.
2:30 - 2:45 PM Break
2:45 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. Smart Grid and Electric Vehicles
* How would electric vehicles help improve the
efficiency and stability of the electricity grid?
* How can electric vehicles help make better use
of electricity from renewable sources?
* What problems and opportunities are associated
with “vehicle to grid” energy storage systems?
Panelists:
* Ed Kjaer, SCE
* Jasna Tomic, CALSTART
* Duke Luu, CAISO
* John Clark, GridPoint
* CALCARS IS A HOST COMMITTEE MEMBER AND AUCTION
DONOR FOR PLUG IN AMERICA'S GALA BENEFIT PARTY
AUGUST 9. You can go straight from this event to Long Beach for Plug In 2009!
Here's the description: sign up at http://www.PlugInAmerica.org/party
Please join us for Plug-ins, Pinots and Progress
Sunday, August 9th (4:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.) at
Thomas Fogarty Winery in Woodside, CA
We'll toast to accelerating the EV movement! -
2nd Annual Benefit Party for Plug In America
This is more than a great party! Plug In America
is driving the clean vehicle movement towards
widespread adoption of plug-in electric vehicles
recharged by clean, domestic energy. Help us
break our addiction to oil and fight climate
change by supporting Plug In America (while
drinking lovely Santa Cruz Mountains wines!) at
our Northern California debut event.
Featuring
* Plug-in Electric Vehicles rarely seen before
* Auction items for everyone
* Organic hors d'oeuvres, divine wine and more
* PROGRAM SET FOR 2 PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOPS AT
PLUG-IN 2009. For the conference and expo, August
10-13, 2009 in Long Beach, CA, the early-bird
discounted registration DISCONT DEADLINE IS JULY
17 (as are the discount hotel reservations):
Register now at
http://www.plugin2009.com/registration.html.
Previously we've posted the agenda and
participants. Find the latest list (including
the panel we're moderating and participating in,
"Plug-In Grassroots and Legislative Advocacy"
also featuring Steve Marshall, Cascadia Center,
and Jay Friedland, Plug In America) at
http://www.plugin2009.com/agenda.html . The
organizers have just released details on two
great Monday pre-conference workshops, both 1-6PM:
I. BATTERY WORKSHOP
Cell Chemistry and Technologies: Moderator: Naum
Pinsky, Southern California Edison
* Venkat Srinivasan, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
* Cyrus Ashtiani, EnerDel
Battery Manufacturing and Cost: Moderator: Klaus
Brandt, Gaia Akkumulatorenwerke
* Paul Nelson, Argonne National Laboratory
* Peter Mock, DLR
Materials and Recycling: Moderator: Fritz
Kalhammer, Kalhammer Electrochemical & Energy Technologies
* Linda Gaines, Argonne National Laboratory
* Mark Caffarey, Umicore
* Steve Sloop, OnTo Technology
Panel Discussion: What Have We Learned?:
Moderator: Haresh Kamath, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
* Naum Pinsky, Southern California Edison
* Klaus Brandt, Gaia Akkumulatorenwerke
* Fritz Kalhammer, Kalhammer Electrochemical & Energy Technologies
II. PLUG-IN READINESS WORKSHOP: Moderator: Mark
Duvall, Electric Transportation, Electric Power Research Institute
* Making Your Community Plug-In Ready - The
Automaker Perspective: Britta Gross, General Motors Corporation
* Community and City Infrastructure Planning: Bob Hayden, City of San Francisco
* Planning and Executing Charging Infrastructure
Projects: Enid Joffe, Clean Fuel Connection
* Electrical Codes and Regulations for EV Charging Equipment: Greg Nieminski
* Installation of Residential Charging Equipment: Mike Waters, Progress Energy*
* Design of Charging Infrastructure for Fleet and
Public Installations: Ron Thompson, Eaton Corporation
* Cost Estimation for Residential, Commercial and
Public Charging Installations: Mark Duvall,
Electric Transportation, Electric Power Research Institute
* Fast Charging Technology - Tokyo Electric Power
Company’s EV Demonstration: Takafumi Anegawa, Tokyo Electric Power Company
* EV and PHEV Consumer Behavior and Charging
Habits: Jamie Davies, University of California at Davis
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
The roundup below includes the notes for our
presentation to a forum, "US-China Cleantech - An
Update," that was organized by Jim Hurd, premier
networker and founder of GreenScienceExcvhange
http://www.greenscienceexchange.com ("The
Entrepreneur's Think and Do Tank"), with help
from foreign trade consultant Eugene Chen of
Marco Polo Group. It was held July 13 in the San
Francisco office of global law firm K&L Gates
http://www.klgates.com (which has five offices in
China). While not complete, we thought it worth
giving our readers a snapshot of the auto
industry in this all-important country.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
This year, China will overtake the US as the
world's biggest automaker. Will it also take the
leadership in the race for green vehicles,
especially plug-in cars? We don't know yet. We do know two big facts:
CHINA IS ABOUT TO BECOME THE LARGEST CARMAKER:
The Chinese Association of Auto Manufacturers
said on July 9 that China will sell more than 11
million cars this year, 17% more than the 9.3
million last year and ahead of the association's
prediction of 10.2 million. Meanwhile, US
annualized sales are under 10 million.
CHINA IS WAY AHEAD OF THE U.S. IN FUEL SIPPERS.
The attention-getting fact is that U.S. cars are
so thirsty they can't be sold in China. China's
average new car gets almost 36 MPG -- that's the
level American CAFE requirements see for U.S.
cars six years from now, in 2015. By then, China
will be over 42 MPG. If they do jump in to
plug-in vehicles, their lead will be far greater.
(China imports few cars, and puts a tax up to 40%
on domestically produced gas-guzzlers.)
And it looks like China is going green as fast as
possible. Look at a Harvard Business Review piece
about China's emerging environmental priorities
at
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/hbr/hbreditors/2009/07/hummer_tengzhong_and_the\
_new_g.html
. It links to "Advancing Sustainable
Competitiveness of China's Transnational
Corporations,"
http://www.accountability21.net/publications.aspx?id=4074
, in which Long Guoqiang, deputy director of the
Development Research Center of China's State
Council, and Simon Zadek and Joshua Wickerham of
Londono-based Account Ability, echo Thomas
Friedman and others in arguing that this is how
China will gain global leadership.
A SNAPSHOT OF SOME OF THE KEY AUTOMAKERS AND
THEIR PLANS: Today's Chinese automotive market is
a complex free-for-all. At the San Francisco
forum, Cliff Nakayama from Mostwell International
LLC and the US-China Green Energy Council
http://ucgef.org Automotive Task Force, which is
holding a series of seminars on PHEVs
http://ucgef.org/en/activities/seminar/transportation1
, described government efforts to consolidate
China's fragmented auto industry, with over 100
companies, into a handful of top players through
subsidies, rebates and procurement policies. See
a February report on the government's "boost"
plan at
http://autonews.gasgoo.com/auto-news/1009455/China-aims-to-merge-carmaking-group\
s-to-10.html
. (If, as may be possible, I am able to visit
China in October or November, and meet with some
of the players, perhaps I can promote plug-in
vehicles and return with more insight from
insiders.) Meanwhile, here's a research rundown:
* BYD, evolving from one of the world's largest
batterymakers to a carmaker, is the poster-child
for China's PHEVs, with several vehicles in
development. The F3DM is the first production
PHEV to be sold in the world; it's on sale
already in China. Last September, the company
sold a 10% share to Warren Buffet's MidAmerican
Energy Holdings company, and in late May inked a
Memorandum of Understanding with Volkswagen for
to provide batteries and to work together on
"electric mobility." We hope that this will
include VW helping BYD advance its designs,
especially its vehicles'"fit and finish" (so
critical in the U.S. market) so they can begin
global automotive sales sooner rather than later.
We can only imagine the impact of a PHEV selling
in the U.S. for $20-$25,000 minus s$7,500 in tax credits!
* In a widely publicized development, in early
June, GM agreed to sell its Hummer brand to
Chengdu-based Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial
Machinery, which is now in formal discussions
with Chinese regulators. GM plans to continue
building Hummers on a contract basis at its
Shreveport, LA plant. The new company, with
little automotive experience, has discussed more
efficient models. And as we reported in June at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1061.html ,
we do have a recent encouraging precedent in GM
providing inside technical information and a new
small engine to Raser Technologies to convert an H3 to a series PHEV.
* Fiat has a 50-50 joint venture with Guangzhou
Automobile Group (which has previously partnered
with Isuzu, Honda and Toyota) to build vehicles
that meet the Chinese government's requirement
for fuel-efficient, low-emission vehicles. Fiat's
planned joint venture with Chery fell apart. It
looks like that this partnership will make
aerodynamic CVs (combustion vehicles), initially
for sale only in China, but eventually perhaps
for export, including, via the Chrysler connection, to the U.S.
* Chery, the largest independent automaker, has
shown several EVs that it says may arrive in
2010. Johnson Controls-SAFT may provide batteries.
* Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, which
has partnered primarily with GM but also with
Volkswagen in the past, expects to sell hybrids
in 2010 and EVs between then and 2012. Johnson
Controls-SAFT may provide batteries.
* Geely Holding Group has shown a concept plug-in
sedan. Geely and Ford have both denied that they
are in discussions about Volvo, which has been
advancing its concept cars toward a 2012 PHEV.
* Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co. remains
in contention to buy GM's Opel decision, which is
currently expected to be sold to a consortium led
by Canadian integrator and parts supplier Magna
International, backed by two Russian companies,
the state-controlled lender Sberbank Rossia and
auto maker OAO GAZ Group. GM has said it is not
concerned about possible competition in China
from Opel for GM sales. (For plug-ins, Opel is
developing the Ampera, the diesel version of the Chevy Volt.)
* Donfeng Motor Company, formerly Second
Automobile works, based in Wuhan, has a joint
venture with Netherlands-based Detroit Electric
Holdings (reviving an EV name from the early 20th
century), to build EVs in China; Detroit Electric
plans to build the same vehicles in Malaysia with
Proton for sale in Europe and the U.S.
* Hafei Auto Group (Harin HF), a recently
established consortium, is partnering with a new
Southern California startup, Coda, spun out of
Miles EV, to build in China a $45,000 EV for sale
the U.S. Coda has a management team from the US
high-tech world and the international auto
industry, and many auto industry and EV veterans
among its directors and advisors,
* Shenzhen Goch Investment is investing $15
million in a joint venture with Phoenix-based
ECOtality to build and distributed charging
stations in China. (The recent Pike Research
report sees a $1.9 billion market in charging
equipment by 2015, with almost half coming from China.)
In Monday'sWall Street Journal, former Intel CEO
Andy Grove, who remains a strong advocate for
plug-in vehicles, as well as conversion of
already-built gas-guzzlers, has a piece about the
US auto industry and Washington titled " What
Detroit Can Learn From Silicon Valley"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124744046341629787.html
It compares US efforts aimed primarily at saving
automotive jobs with Chinese industrial policies
to focus especially on battery manufacturing; he
concludes, "Which is the better investment
strategy? It is too early to say….The strategic
bets being placed by each country may determine
which one will end up as the world's leader in
automotive technology and manufacturing."
Finally, we've been very gratified to see the
recognition of the pioneering role of Feng An,
who has been working for over a decade to connect
U.S. and Chinese organizations and advance
low-carbon cars in China. We first met him in
2004, when we brought our first converted Prius
to Michigan.In a broad NY Times review of the
Chinese industry
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/business/energy-environment/28fuel.html,
veteran journalist Keith Bradshear describes this
founder of the Innovation Center for Energy and
Transportation in Beijing
http://www.icet.org.cn/en/home_en.html as
"leading architect of China's existing fuel economy regulations."
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
With so much important news accumulating
recently, I had considered calling this posting,
"PHEV Reader's Digest," or "The Kitchen PHEV
Sink." I hope the current title does justice to
the range of developments. I'll be on vacation
July 16-26, recharging and planning the next big
splash. In early August. Then we hope to
accelerate plans to build a coalition for a new
campaign, as challenging as the 2002-2006 effort
to put PHEVs on the map and into policy agendas.
This time it's to do the same for gas-guzzler conversions.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
This posting is divided into sections; at our
News Archive, you'll be able to jump to each section:
* Auto Industry Developments
* Resources & Policy Reports
* New Books
* New Developments & Analysis
* News About Conversions
* Important Green Links
AUTO INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS
WANT TO SEE WHAT CARMAKERS PROMISE FOR 2010-2015?
CalCars' page, "How Carmakers Are Responding to
the PHEV Opportunity" at
http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html shows the
status of plans by almost two dozen automakers.
We've just updated the graphic and table. And
we're pleased to welcome -- and link to -- the
new "Plug-In Vehicle Tracker" just launched by
Plug In America at
http://www.pluginamerica.org/plug-in-vehicle-tracker.html
. Our page focuses on series and parallel PHEVs;
PIA encompasses PHEVs as well as BEVs (battery
vehicles), including a range of two- and three-wheel and commercial vehicles.
TOYOTA: STILL NO ANNOUNCED PLANS FOR PHEVS:
Hundreds of media reports have spread an
unconfirmed July 4 report from Nikkei business
daily, amplified via Reuters on July 6
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-GreenBusiness/idUSTRE5630DY20090706
, saying that Toyota will start mass-producing
PHEVs in 2012. The story lists a price around
$48,000 for a 12-18-mile all-electric range -- an
offer that by then would hardly be compelling. We
think it isn't true until the company says so,
and so far, Toyota has simply responded that it won't comment on future plans.
TOYOTA'S NOW-AND-THEN SKEPTICISM: In May, U.S.
national manager for advanced technology Bill
Reinert told the Academy of Sciences in May that
annual demand for PHEVs won't exceed 50,000 and
could be as low as 3,500
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=arvp1GgT74o8
. He then amplified these doubts at a conference
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/10001607/toyotas-problem-with-plug-in-hybrids/
CHEVY VOLT MOVES TO INTEGRATION STAGE: In late
May, GM began building its first pre-production
vehicles: unlike the first prototypes and
vehicles shoehorned into Malibu and Cruz
platforms, these look like the final vehicle.
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2009/06/first_pre-production_chevrolet_volt\
_charges_ahead_of_schedule.html
WASHINGTON POST PROFILES BOB LUTZ, GM, AND THE
VOLT in a long Sunday feature in June with some
simplifications and misunderstandings by the
author and comments by Lutz that may rub many the
wrong way. But the story is illuminating.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/06/AR2009060602212.\
html;
comments at
http://gm-volt.com/2009/06/07/bob-lutz-and-gm-ambivalent-about-the-chevy-volt/
GM'S VIEW ON THE IMPORTANCE OF SCALING PRODUCTION
OF PLUG-INS: Read Frank Weber's comments at
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2009/05/how_gm_is_making_electric_vehicles_\
relevant.html
HYUNDAI'S PHEV PLANS: The Korean automaker now
plans a PHEV based on its Blue-Will 38-mile range
concept vehicle for sale in U.S. in 2012.
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-10280045-48.html
JAGUAR PLANS PHEVS: Now owned by Indian automaker
Tata, the company is reported to be considering
building series hybrids based on the SE sportscar
and SJ sedan http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2009/07/10/jaguar_ecar_future/
VOLKSWAGEN & BYD: Read about their open-ended
Memorandum of Understanding to collaborate on
hybrids and electric vehicles:
http://rumors.automobilemag.com/6543918/green/volkswagen-to-partner-with-byd-for\
-future-hybrids/index.html
and
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/vw-signs-battery-pact-with-chinese-au\
tomaker/
FORD'S ENTHUSIASM FOR PHEVS now includes a
commitment to build 5,000 in 2012.
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/10001710/unlike-toyota-ford-is-bullish-on-plug-in-\
hybrids/
RESOURCES & POLICY REPORTS
GIGATON THROWDOWN EVALUATES TOP STRATEGIES: In
2007, Bay Area serial entrepreneur and long-time
CalCars supporter Sunil Paul pledged at the
Clinton Global Initiative he would create a
mechanism to encourage "investors, entrepreneurs,
business leaders, and policy makers to 'think
big' to massively scale clean energy during the
next 10 years." The focus: "What technologies
could reduce annual emissions of greenhouse gases
(CO2e) by at least 1 billion metric tons -- a
gigaton -- by 2020?" Paul's team of academics,
entrepreneurs and others developed the Gigaton
Throwdown, with results announced in Washington,
DC in June. Nine contending technologies were are
Biofuels, Building efficiency, Concentrating
solar power, Construction materials, Geothermal,
Nuclear, Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, Solar
photovoltaics, and Wind. Download the 9 MB
document at http://www.gigatonthrowdown.org and
read the section on PHEVs in numbered pages 103-112.
The report found that PHEVs couldn't reach 1GT
unless virtually every new vehicle made worldwide
could plug in. We agree that the rate of market
penetration of new plug-in vehicles is too slow
to have an impact by 2020. As reviewers of
successive drafts, we suggested this validates
our new focus on converting millions of
gas-guzzlers already on the road. While the team
felt this would be especially challenging for
PHEVs, the final report acknowledges that
approach and our suggestion for accompanying
business models in its "Game Changers" section.
Here's an excerpt from p.111: "Additional
concepts that could help to facilitate market
transformation include… conversion of existing
conventional vehicles to
electric-drive….Conversion of conventional
vehicles to PHEVs is quite complicated…However,
conversion of certain conventional vehicles to
all-electric 'BEV' operation is more possible, in
which case the combustion engine driveline is
completely removed. Innovative vehicle ownership
and financing models can help to reduce first
cost barriers to vehicle purchase by spreading
these costs over time and offsetting them with
operational savings from increased vehicle efficiency and lower fuel costs."
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE REPORT ON PHEVS:
In a very significant 53-page June 2009 Report to
Congressional Requesters: "FEDERAL ENERGY AND
FLEET MANAGEMENT: Plug-in Vehicles Offer
Potential Benefits, but High Costs and Limited
Information Could Hinder Integration into the
Federal Fleet," the GAO explores issues in
federal procurement policies and recommends
governmental steps to advance their adoption.
Download the document at
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09493.pdf and see
reports at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/06/gao-20090625.html
and
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/06/gao-phevs-potentially-beneficia\
l-but-costs-can-hinder-federal-fleet-integration.html
LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION IN CALIFORNIA:
OPPORTUNITIES AND BARRIERS is a white paper by
the California Public Utilities Commission's
Policy and Planning Division . This report
reflects the growing recognition by regulatory
agencies that the arrival of plug-in vehicles
will require many changes in regulatory policy.
The 74-page report and links to comments from
utilities and advocates are found at
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/ev_comments.htm
PIKE RESEARCH REPORT ON PLUG-IN VEHICLES AND THE
GRID: Cleantech market intelligence firm Pike
Research released a comprehensive 53-page
industry analysis, "Electric Vehicles on the
Grid: Residential, Public, Private and Workplace
Charging Stations, EV Charging Business Models,
and Vehicle to Grid Technology" predicting that
by 2015, a total of 1.7 million PHEVs will be on
the road worldwide. Toyota, GM and Ford are
expected together to account for 75%, with
Chinese manufacturers including Chery and BYD as
important players. Those tracking the business
opportunities in charging and related enterprises
and people with responsibility for local charging
infrastructure might consider purchasing this
$2,500 report, which will be followed shortly by
"Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: The Global
Outlook for PHEVs: Business Issues, Technology
Issues, Key Players, and Market Forecasts." See
the first report's table of contents and ordering
information at
http://www.pikeresearch.com/research/clean-transportation.
And read John Gartner of Matter Network and Pike
Research on PHEV rollout rates at http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=21180
STATUS REPORT ON BATTERIES: /Don't miss CalCars
Technology Lead Ron Gremban's comprehensive
report from the annual Advanced Automotive
Battery Conference
http://www.advancedautobat.com/ at the EAA-PHEV
discussion group. Even if you lack a strong
technical background, you'll learn a lot! For the
four out-of-order postings, start from
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/eaa-phev/messages/3628?l=1
and read 3647, 3643, 3650 and 3651, plus comments from others.
ARGONNE NATIONAL LAB RESEARCH STUDY ON BATTERY
SIZE: suggests declining benefits from larger
packs. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/06/argonne-phev-20090611.html
GREEN CAR CONGRESS REORGANIZES ITS INFO: Now you
can scan this deep website's past year's reports
on plug-ins at http://www.greencarcongress.com/plugins/
NEW BOOKS will soon be added to links at http://www.calcars.org/books.html
"BUILD YOUR OWN PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE"
is by Seth Leitman, longtime green
vehicle/sustainability expert. His website is
http://www.greenlivingguy.com/ and he's
previously the author of "Build Your Own Electric
Vehicle." Both are published by McGraw-Hill as
part of their Green Guru Guides series. This
275-page $29.95 book provides an overview of the
technology and the issues in doing a conversion,
and it works well as a different way in to the
open source material that can be found at
http://www.eaa-phev.org or the easier-to-remember http://www.priusplus.org .
"V2G-101: A TEXT ABOUT VEHICLE-TO-GRID, the
technology which enables a future of clean and
efficient electric-powered transportation," by
Leonard Beck is the first book exclusively
focused on the integration of plug-in vehicle
with the power generation industry -- which has
never had a practical way to store energy it
produces. It starts with cars plugging in to
homes with smart meters for V2B (Vehicle to
Building) and will evolve over time to V2G
(Vehicle to Grid). The author is an employee of
Delmarva Power & Light (the Washington, DC-area
utility). This 344-page $30.00 book is published by BookSurge publishing
NEWS DEVELOPMENTS & ANALYSIS
NEW PLUG-IN INCENTIVES IN CANADA AND SPAIN:
Ontario has just announced a "1 in 20" campaign
(1 of 20 cars by 2020 will plug in) including
rebates from C$4-10,000 (US$3,575-$8,938) and
access to HOV lanes for five years starting in
2010. --
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/ontario-rebates-20090715.html
. And Spain has announced a program to subsidize
15-20% of a plug-in vehicle's cost up to 7,000
Euros ($10,000). The Movele plan begins with
eight million Euros in funding --
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/07/10/spain-announces-electric-vehicle-rebates\
-of-up-to-7-000-per-car/
FUTURE OF TOYOTA'S CALIFORNIA FACTORY: With GM
having pulled out of its longtime joint venture
with Toyota to build cars at the NUMMI (New
United Motor Manufacturing) plant in Fremont, CA
(the only large auto factory on the West Coast),
the future of the plant and its 5,000 jobs is in
doubt. Some had hoped Toyota would build Priuses
there, but the company has ruled that out. Back
in May 2007, our suggestion that the plant build
plug-in cars was favorably received when we and
the Apollo Alliance met with the UAW Local 2244
-- see photo at
http://www.calcars.org/photos-people.html#CD .
This idea has now been echoed by an editorial in
San Jose Mercury News
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_12726223? . The
decision will be made by management in Japan; so
far they're not hearing from many in the U.S.
Unfortunately, so far, in the dog days of summer,
in a region that hopes to become the "plug-in
capitol of the world," no critical mass of civic
leaders, unions and others has rallied. If some
organization can take the lead on a quick campaign on this, contact us.
THE GREAT ELECTRIC CAR RACE: Gas 2.0
(http://www.gas2.org ) has launched a new website
http://electriccarrace.org/ to track the
competition among U.S. cities to develop the
entire infrastructure and incentives for plug-in
cars. First postings are from the mayors of San
Francisco, Portland and Seattle. And Project Get
Ready's website http://www.projectgetready.org
keeps adding useful resources, including policy
checklists and analytical tools and descriptions
of best practices that others can use.
HYBRIDCARS.COM VIEWS: see editor/publisher Brad
Berman's late May musings on the slow rate of
change in the auto industry. This points to the
conclusion we've reached about the need to
partially electrify gas-guzzlers on the road.
http://www.hybridcars.com/oil-dependence/confronting-slow-rate-auto-technology-c\
hange-25831.html
And in July, Berman surveyed the status of many
manufacturers in
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/plug-hybrid-fever-spreads-despite-cost-25906.html
FAST FOOD CHARGING LEADER: McDonalds in Cary, NC
has installed an electric charging station for
its customers as they patronize the restaurant or
the nearby shopping center. McDonalds
spokespeople make clear they're hoping to do
more. Partners are Novacharge and Coulomb
Technologies.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-nc-mcdonalds-electr,0,4223228.story
HOW MUCH RANGE SHOULD A PHEV HAVE? See comments
by CalCars, Southern California Edison and others
at http://alternativeenergy.com/profiles/blogs/range-anxieties-what-lies
ZIPCAR CEO GIVES CARSHARE PERSPECTIVE ON
PLUG-INS, Scott Griffith explains his thinking
about the future of electric car-share fleets and
explains why the company may start with PHEVs on
the way to all-electric.
http://earth2tech.com/2009/07/13/zipcar-ceo-why-were-not-going-electric-anytime-\
soon/
A123SYSTEMS AND BUSINESS FORECASTS: See
"A123Systems Takes a Post-Stimulus & Bailout Look
at IPO" for a discussion about how the market
looks for battery suppliers.
http://earth2tech.com/2009/06/30/a123systems-takes-a-post-stimulus-bailout-look-\
at-ipo/
NEWS ABOUT CONVERSIONS
SEATTLE PLUG-IN HYBRIDS' LOW MPG? Reports of
converted Priuses in Seattle's city fleets using
almost as much gas as standard hybrids have
gotten broad distribution. From reports we've
seen, the cars often didn't plug in, were used
mainly on short trips where any car gets the
worst mileage, and drivers received no
orientation. A Wired story
http://www.wired.com/cars/coolwheels/news/2009/05/plugins0506
mentions some of these factors (many of which
apply to conversions but won't hinder new PHEVs)
as does one at NPR:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102634940 .
HIGH-SPEED PRIUS PHEV CONVERSION: Plug-In
Conversions Corp in Southern CA has added to its
25-mile-range system a new $2-2,500 electronics
package from Ewert Energy Systems that allows
highway-speed all-electric driving -- yes, you
heard right! See info and a video at
http://www.ewertenergy.com, a report at
http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=21189 and
postings at he EAA-PHEV discussion group:
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/eaa-phev/messages
PHEV DRIVES FROM FLORIDA TO WASHINGTON, DC ON 9
GALLONS: We've always said PHEVs could win a
cross-country MPG race -- if they could take a
month getting there. Now a Florida Toyota dealer
has sponsored a 10-day North Palm Beach to DC
trip that averaged 123 MPG.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2009/06/68187699/1
IMPORTANT GREEN LINKS
We've been asked by our cleantech associates to
bring to our readers' attention two new projects:
* CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK (CEN) is the successor to
CleanTech For Obama (CT4O) and brings together
investors, professionals, workers and
entrepreneurs to promote policies for clean
development and green jobs. Sign up for a General
or Executive Membership at http://www.cleaneconomy.net/
* FEED-IN TARIFF COALITION (FIT) is working to
accelerate the deployment of distributed
renewable energy that will help electric cars get
cleaner and cleaner. The coalition is making
great progress in promoting these policies
state-by-state; see http://wwwlfitcoalition.com .
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Here's more info on two events coming up in the next few weeks; some
good news for CalCars; and previews on four new national plug-in
events. You can also find the links for all these at the CalCars
Events page, http://www.calcars.org/events.html
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
FESTIVE PLUG IN AMERICA: "Pinots, Plug-Ins and Progress" at a winery
in the hills above Silicon Valley, Sunday August 9, 4-8PM, features
good food and drink, movers and shakers from the tech world,
government and Hollywood, and lots of cars you don't often see:
Aptera (and its team), Tango, the usual Tesla Roadsters (!). New
additions to the program include remarks from Jerry McNerny, former
wind entrepreneur, now East Bay Congressman and the wit of California
Public Utilities Commissioner Rachelle Cong (no kidding). You may see
some other surprise visitors. Sign up at
http://www.pluginamerica.org/party --and via that same URL, if you
can't be there, you can make a donation or try for the many auction
items, including vacations, consultations with plug-in experts
(including Felix Kramer). Plug-in-related goodies include a
Hymotion/A123 Prius conversion, service at Luscious Garage in SF, and
a Coulomb charger. Many items will move from the online auction to be
sold at the live event, but your offer can become an "absentee bid" at the end.
WELCOME NEWS: Remember the lawsuit filed against The California Cars
Initiative by two San Clemente companies that sought to prevent us
from using the nickname CalCars and the website CalCars.org? We've
been quietly defending the trademark infringement case since April,
2007. On October 13 last year, we revealed the story at the time of
the US District Court ruling in our favor that there was no
likelihood of confusion. The judge granted summary judgment of all
the claims brought by American Calcar Inc. and Calcar Inc., and their
separate request for summary judgment was denied.
The plaintiffs then appealed the district court's ruling dismissing
the case. However, following continued negotiations, plaintiffs
withdrew their appeal, and on July 27th, the Ninth Circuit Court of
Appeals dismissed all of the appeals -- so it's now all over! We
remain immensely grateful for the pro bono help of the global law
firm Howrey LLP http://www.howrey.com and the people we acknowledged
in our posting at CalCars-News, http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1012.html .
A PLUG FOR CALCARS: As proponents of all plug-in vehicles, we work
closely with Plug In America. We figure this is a good time to
suggest that you also consider becoming a supporter of CalCars with a
tax-deductible contribution at http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html .
If you've given one or twice since 2003, now's a good time to repeat
-- with the distraction of the legal battle now history, we can do
more with your help!
PUBLIC NIGHT AT PLUG-IN 2009: Some of you may be going to the second
annual conference in Long Beach, CA August 10-13, 2009 -- see
www.plugin2009.com . It's not too late to sign up. We'll be running a
panel on "Plug-In Grassroots and Legislative Advocacy," and there are
many great speakers and topics. See full program at
http://www.plugin2009.com/agenda.html . In addition to the conference
and related exposition, the event will be open to the public on
Tuesday night. Last year in San Jose, over 1,000 people
attended....Once again it's only $10 (tickets at the door); this year
it's at the Long Beach Convention Center, 300 E. Ocean Blvd. Vehicles
scheduled for display starting at 5:30 include the Chevy Volt, Ford
550 Plug-In Hybrid Truck, Ford Escape Plug-In Hybrid, Plug-In Toyota
Prius and more. (Vehicle displays subject to change.) This is
followed at 7:30 by "Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: Getting
the Message Out" with panelists talking about their adventures in
crafting educational and entertaining messages about plug-in
technology, and what the public can do to help shape a plugged-in
future. Speakers:
* Mark Duvall (moderator), director, electric transportation,
Electric Power Research Institute
* Peter Horton, writer/director, "Grey's Anatomy" and "The Philanthropist"
* Bill Nye, "The Science Guy"
* Chris Paine, director, "Who Killed the Electric Car?" and the
forthcoming "Revenge of the Electric Car"
* Chelsea Sexton, founder, The Lighting Rod Foundation and former
General Motors EV1 specialist
MARK YOUR CALENDARS FOR EVENTS IN THE NEW YORK-WASHINGTON DC
CORRIDOR, MONTREAL, DETROIT, AND WASHINGTON STATE:
* THE BRITA CLIMATE RIDE 2009 September 26-30 (New York City to
Washington, DC) CalCars is recruiting East Coast owners of Prius
PHEVs to provide the support vehicles for a five-day charity
sponsored bike ride to raise awareness of climate solutions. Climate
Ride is not just a bike ride: it's also a climate conference on
wheels. Notable riders include Denmark's Ambassador; the German
Ambassador; No Impact Man, Colin Beavan; the Lazy Environmentalist,
Josh Dorfman; Save Our Snows founder Alison Gannett; retired
Executive Director of the American Wind Energy Association, Randy
Swisher, and more. Kicking off Climate Ride in New York City is
NASA Climate Scientist Dr. James Hansen, followed later in the week
by Bracken Hendricks of the Center for American Progress, Mike
Tidwell of Chesapeake Climate Action Network, and Wood Turner of
Climate Counts. Reply to this email with the subject line: "Climate
Ride volunteer" if you're in a position to drive your converted Prius
for one to five days of the event. http://www.climateride.org
* PHEV '09 Sepember 28-30, 2009 (Montreal, Quebec, Canada). This
second Canadian conference on "Plug-In Hybrid and Electric
Vehicles/Vehicules electriques et hybrides rechargables" features a
broad range of topics as Canada shows signs of evolving at an even
faster rate than the U.S. toward plug-in vehicles. CalCars' Felix
Kramer will present at a panel. NOTE: EARLY REGISTRATION CLOSES JULY
31.http://www.emc-mec.ca/phev/en/home_en.html
* THE BUSINES OF PLUGGING INOctober 19-21 (Detroit, Michigan). First
major conference in Motor City on plug-in vehicles, organized by the
influential Center for Automotive Research http://www.cargroup.org/
with support from the Michigan Public Service Commission and
sponsorship by GM and DTE Energy. CalCars' Felix Kramer will present
at a panel. Details to follow soon. http://www.pev2009.com/
Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation October 23-24 (Redmond, WA)
The sixth annual Cascadia Project TransTech Conference, to be held at
Microsoft's Redmond campus, will include a strong focus on plug-in
vehicles. Details soon.
http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/index.php?command=view&id=991&program=Ca\
scadia&isEvent=true
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
We want to share ASAP today's news. Below we include a quote, the
basics, our quick summary of who got what, and URLs for the full list
and related primary sources.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
CalCars' Founder Felix Kramer said, "We appreciate President Obama
announcement of the largest-ever federal funding of the electric
battery industry. This $2.4 billion is for manufacturing and
deployment--not for research. Batteries are good enough already;
further improvements will be icing on the cake. This program will
significantly accelerate the availability of components for the new
plug-in vehicles coming in the next three years. It will put
thousands of vehicles on our roads. It boosts the electrification of
larger heavy-duty vehicles. And it begins to demonstrate the
feasibility of converting existing vehicles to plug in."
The President led an A-team fanning out around the country,
announcing 48 projects in 25 states, funded by the Recovery Act. He
returned to Elkhart, Indiana, where he had visited a town meeting in
April 2008. Speaking at the Monaco RV plant (a Navistar Company) in
Wakarusa, he said this was about "creating the infrastructure of
innovation," zeroing in on the jobs, economic, energy security and
environmental benefits of these grants. Vice President Biden,
accompanied by GM CEO Henderson, Michigan Governor Granholm, and
members of Congress, is announcing grants in Detroit. Energy
Secretary Chu is announcing grants in North Carolina. They've left
it to the companies to provide details, including estimates of job impacts
In all, 257 companies and joint ventures applied for a total of $9.6
billion. 20 percent of the awards will go to small businesses, and
the private sector funds matched the grants with a $2.4 billion cost
share. The program is known as "Recovery Act Funding Opportunity
DE-FOA-0000026 Electric Drive Vehicle Battery and Component
Manufacturing Initiative. Still to be announced are "Transportation
Electrification" and "Clean Cities FY09 Petroleum Reduction
Technologies Projects for the Transportation Sector"
Though some early news stories mistakenly described these as
"research" grants, the White House's press headline says it best:
"President Obama Announces $2.4 Billion in Grants to Accelerate the
Manufacturing and Deployment of the Next Generation of U.S. Batteries
and Electric Vehicles; Recovery Act will fund 48 new advanced battery
and electric drive components manufacturing and electric drive
vehicle deployment projects in over 20 states."
The grants cover, according to the press release:
* $1.5 billion in grants to U.S. based manufacturers to produce
batteries and their components and to expand battery recycling capacity;
* $500 million in grants to U.S. based manufacturers to produce
electric drive components for vehicles, including electric motors,
power electronics, and other drive train components; and
* $400 million in grants to purchase thousands of plug-in hybrid and
all-electric vehicles for test demonstrations in several dozen
locations; to deploy them and evaluate their performance; to install
electric charging infrastructure; and to provide education and
workforce training to support the transition to advanced electric
transportation systems.
Our quick look at the five-page list leads to this summary:
* Battery and materials manufacturing grants go to a range of
solutions in the lithium family, most to the largest,
most-established cell manufacturers and packagers, with two small
lead-acid variations for micro or mild hybrids.
* GM gets $240M in three grants; Ford gets $92.7M and Chrsyler gets
$70M; smaller US manufacturers and integrators didn't receive grants.
* Most component maker grants went to largest, most-established suppliers.
* Oregon, Washington, Callifornia, Arizona and Tennessee will get
12,500 battery charging stations from eTec, all Level 2 (240 volts)
or Level 3 (high-power charging for large vehicles and fast-charging
for small ones).
* Deployment funds will put on the road 5,000 Nissan EVs, 220
Chrysler PHEV pickups and minivans, 378 trucks and shuttle buses by
companies working with South Coast Air Quality Management District,
400 Navistar EV delivery trucks, 500 Chevy Volts for consumers and
125 for utilities, and 130 Ford Escape PHEVs.
* Large vehicle conversions include the redesign and delivery by Ford
of 20 E450 vans as PHEVs and perhaps some Ford F150s turned into
"Faraday" EVs by Smith Electric.
* Multiple education and training programs for both professionals and
graduate, undergraduate and high school students include one at San
Francisco City College with Pat's Garage and Perfect Sky (trainer
Jack Rosebro), both long-time CalCars partners.
See analyses and comments at
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124948593451108031.htmlhttp://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/08/president-obama-announces-48-projects-to\
-receive-24b-in-grants-for-nextgeneration-of-batteries-and-e.html
Primary sources:
* Press release
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/24-Billion-in-Grants-to-Accelerate-th\
e-Manufacturing-and-Deployment-of-the-Next-Generation-of-US-Batteries-and-Electr\
ic-Vehicles/
* Text of President Obama's speech
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-on-the-Econo\
my-in-Wakarusa-Indiana/
* List of grants
<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/recovery/pdfs/battery_awardee_list.pdf>http://www1.\
eere.energy.gov/recovery/pdfs/battery_awardee_list.pdf
or
* Map of the grants
<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/recovery/pdfs/battery_awardee_map.pdf>http://www1.e\
ere.energy.gov/recovery/pdfs/battery_awardee_map.pdf
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Wednesdsay we posted news and specifics about the
federal grant awards for the battery development
for plug-in vehicles. We mistakenly said that
these awards covered only the battery and related
component industries. A more careful reading
shows it in fact does include the DE-FOA-0000028
Transportation Electrification program. And now
we have more to say -- much of it critical --
while we hope for an improved sequel.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
As our partners, supporters and readers of
CalCars-News know, we've been energetic fans of
the DOE's new initiatives since they were
announced. We promoted their availability
broadly, pointed people to resources, advised
people with questions, and brokered matches for a
program whose theme was partnerships. We wrote
letters of endorsement for applications by other
organizations and companies. CalCars did not
itself directly apply for a grant, but we were
included as subawardees in several applications.
That gave us a direct interest in how funds were allocated.
In recent years, many small companies and
organizations decided not to bother jumping
through the many hoops for federal programs,.
They cited time-consuming application and
reporting forms. And they felt the playing field
was not level: that small and independent players
stood little chance against the well-connected
big players on the inside track.
This year, with Transparency and Accountability
the stated principles for the recovery program,
it looked like a brand-new story. The word went
out broadly to companies and to the advocacy
coalition that helped get us to the point when
commercialization of plug-in vehicles is in view
(more on that at end of message). Entrepreneurs
and organizations participated enthusiastically
and eagerly awaited the outcome.
The results have been mixed -- while important
and valuable projects were funded, we and others
(see media quotes after our comments) have
pointed out skews and notable omissions in the
awards, and a "business as usual" cast of characters.
In our posting, focused on the funds from the $2B
first federal program for on battery,
infrastructure and deployment, we noted that the
bulk of the awards went to large established
companies -- especially automakers and component
suppliers. We have since heard from a number of
smaller battery and automotive companies that
feel their constituency was overlooked. One made
the comparison to funding dinosaur land-line
companies at the birth of the cellphone age.
We now also reluctantly and with disappointment
conclude that this characterization applies
equally to the sections of the $378M second
federal program focused on Vehicle Demonstration
& Evaluation and Advanced Vehicle Drive Education.
To take the area with which we are most familiar,
education, the solicitation listed as a main goal
"Educating consumers on the basics of advanced
electric drive vehicles to increase consumer
acceptance and market demand." What were the
locations in which "the general public?" will be
reached for this important objective? The
responsibility falls to seven universities: three
in Michigan plus four in Colorado, Indiana,
Missouri, and West Virginia. "Project locations"
are those five states plus Georgia and South
Carolina. And for most of these programs, "the
general public" is the last in a list of
audiences including teachers, students, technicians and emergency responders.
One reason we made our mistaken assumption
yesterday was that the institutions that are now
and have for years been at the center of the
successful campaign to educate car owners and
other consumers, public officials and private
sector decisionmakers, journalists and industry
analysts are entirely missing from the grantees.
That includes CalCars and Plug In America, as
well as many other energetic organizations like
Friends of the Earth, Project Get Ready, regional
plug-in coalitions and others listed at
http//www.calcars.org/partners.html . (We haven't
asked these organizations for permission to list
them in this paragraph.) Also missing are
utility- and automaker-sponsored outreach and educator efforts.
Today, if we were asked, "are you happy about the
results?" we'd say that while we appreciate the
many worthwhile awards, we hope the Department of
Energy hears from the many innovative companies
and both traditional and grass-roots
organizations who fell between the cracks. We
hold out some hope that DOE will announce a
second round in this program from unallocated
recovery funds. If so, to convince those
potential applicants that they may have better
luck next time and it's worth their trouble to
apply, objectives and evaluation criteria should
better match their potential contributions.
Here area few media speculations about the winners and losers in these awards:
WALL STREET JOURNAL: VC-Backed Companies Left In
The Cold By DOE Battery Grants by Mara Lemos
Stein
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=200908061602dowj\
onesdjonline000852
Analysts and investors said the DOE seems to be
playing safe it in its selection of 48 companies,
picking big names and companies that plan to
build plants in Michigan, the home of the ailing U.S. automobile industry….
"We weren't the only ones having the thought that
the government was interested in filling the
funding gap - it may be that they'll still do
it," said Mark Mills, chairman of start-up
International Battery Inc., which makes
large-format lithium-ion batteries and cells and
is building a facility in Allentown, Pa. "When
you look at the list, what you see is that the
DOE has made a cautious bet in the space by
funding battery manufacturing essentially just by
big companies." "The DOE has to address whether
or not they are concerned that emerging
technologies will mature and...whether they think
innovation can only come out of big companies,"
said Mills. "We hope that the DOE decides that
there may be follow-on to help entrepreneurs."….
Analysts and investors said the DOE seems to be
playing it safe in its selection of 48 companies,
picking big names and companies that plan to
build plants in Michigan. Only two venture-backed
companies made the list, raising the question of
whether this money will fill the private funding gap.
MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS: 'Red' Kentucky loses out as
energy grants go to battlegrounds By Halimah
Abdullah http://www.mcclatchydc.com/economy/story/73139.html
Notably absent from the list was a high-profile
bid by a consortium of 50 companies to build a
new [$600 million] battery plant in Kentucky -- a
reliably Republican state that is the nation's
third largest producer of autos and whose senior
senator is Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell. McConnell steadfastly opposed the
stimulus legislation that created the car-battery
program. Department of Energy officials said
applications were judged on merit, not politics,
and the Kentucky consortium's founder said many
factors played into his group, known as NATTBatt, not getting a grant.
SAN FRANCISCO BUSINESS TIMES: State's battery
companies get shafted
http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2009/08/states_battery_com\
panies_get_shafted.html
Unfortunately for the Bay Area, and California as
a whole, battery companies here got zilch. Jeff
DePew, CEO of Imara, was worried when I
interviewed him a couple weeks ago, that the
already-established battery manufacturers -- not
those producing the latest and greatest
technologies -- would get the money. He said
during that interview: "If they (the government)
just invest in the ones that are big names and
already incumbent, they'll be investing in first
generation technology that may or may not be able
to withstand the competition that will be coming
form Asia. If they invest in more forward
companies that have demonstrably better
technology and better performance but maybe are
not as connected or at the same level of
development, I think that's what we need to look for."
TO END WITH SOME GOOD NEWS: on Thursday GM
announced its production commitment for what was
going to be the Saturn Vue PHEV, now a Buick crossover, in 2011.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Entrepreneurs have begun to retrofit ordinary combustion vehicles into
all-electrics or plug-in hybrids. Below we talk about why this could be the
"big fix" that the auto-industry needs. Here's an opinion piece we're
distributing at the Plug-In 2009 Conference that began Monday. It also
appeared online at the innovative website gas2.org, part of a family of
sites by Green Options Media, which is part of for-profit "activist startup"
company Virgance. The article appeared at
http://gas2.org/2009/08/10/the-21st-century-car-industry-why-plug-in-hybrid-retr\
ofits-could-fix-it/
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News
to your RSS feed.)
Are we stuck with our oil addiction? What if millions of our middle-aged
vehicles could be reincarnated as superior versions of their youthful
selves, while developing new revenue streams for Detroit? What if that "fix"
could start reducing the billion a day we spend on imported oil, while
creating tens of thousands of local jobs in communities and cutting
greenhouse gases from fossil fuels?
Automakers could do all this--by thinking of vehicles as upgradable
high-tech products. For example: A pioneering Chicago startup makes a
prototype Ford F-150 pickup with an all-electric range of 30 miles per
charge. After that it's a hybrid, boosting the best-selling truck's 15 city
miles per gallon to 21.
In volume, this conversion could sell for $10-15,000. Converting school and
transit buses could cost $35,000, with three- to five-year paybacks and
reduced diesel fumes. And delivery vans that stay on the road up to 300,000
miles, with engines replaced every 100,000, could instead get partly
electrified. Solutions starting in under 10-MPG niches could then spread to
gas-guzzling vans, SUVs, and large passenger vehicles.
Cash for Clunkers vs Cash for Conversions
As "Cash for Clunkers" proves the pent-up demand for new vehicles, it also
reveals another significant lesson: what old products are worth. Why not
monetize aging assets while retaining the energy and materials used to build
them? Amidst the auto crisis, it's a transformational opportunity to create
a new future-facing business model for the industry.
Today's auto companies are like parents launching their millions of
offspring, saying, "Bye…we don't expect to hear from you again unless
something fails under warranty." Their dealers hope for service revenue and
repeat sales. Except for occasional annoying recalls, they have no way to
add improved technologies to vehicles that suffer from unplanned
obsolescence.
Other industries create products as platforms. Some software firms make more
from upgrades than from original sales. Computer companies shift from
selling hardware to providing information technology systems and services.
Automobiles are our longest-lifetime technology product. Why shouldn't OEMs
(original equipment manufacturers), integrators, suppliers, and dealers
acquire a lifetime interest in them?
That lifetime is longer than we think. First and second U.S. owners
typically keep vehicles seven to ten years. Many large guzzlers--built on
durable frames, where it pays to replace rusted bodies--are then sent
overseas, where they still produce greenhouse gases.
Why electrify transportation? Compared to combustion engines that waste most
of their fuel in heat and friction, over the entire cycle from fuel
extraction to use, electric motors are four times more efficient, making
electric miles that much cheaper. Since we generate electricity from
multiple sources--but almost none from imported oil--we get improved energy
security. Electric vehicles are the only ones that get cleaner as they get
older--because the power grid is becoming more cleaner. And electric motors
have instantaneous torque for fast acceleration.
Why not just wait for the plug-in models OEMs will introduce by 2015?
Unproven demand means they won't make many. Hybrids took ten years to become
1% of all U.S. vehicles and 2% of new sales. So new plug-ins won't
significantly reduce petroleum use and CO2 for 15 years or longer.
Fortunately, we can get those benefits sooner by fixing tens of millions of
over 250 million U.S vehicles--and nearly one billion in the world.
Electric Car Retrofits
Here's how it could look: OEMs, dealers, and partners map out new revenue
opportunities. Multiple customer-service pathways extend vehicles' lives,
reducing fuel and use and lifetime total cost of ownership. Electrification
is the biggest but not the only fix. Dealers equip recent cars with
real-time engine displays--videogames with fuel-saving tips. Some models get
improved engine efficiency and aerodynamics. Dealers offer discounted home
tire inflators, remote diagnostics, and at-home component swap-outs.
Past customers get validated, warrantied retrofits, installed by dealers or
on idled assembly lines. OEMs certify franchises and garages as "qualified
vehicle modifiers," as they do now for customizers of everything from
sunroofs to stretch limos.
The result? Hundreds of thousands of green installer jobs and a recharged
supply chain for motors, electronics, batteries, and mechanical components.
U.S. companies gain global leadership and licensing opportunities. Vehicles
originally built anywhere get stickers, "Fixed in the U.S.A."
How do we get there? By jump-starting a conversion industry, eventually
paired with automakers. OEMs help commercialize safe, reliable conversions
by blessing small companies' retrofit solutions even if they're inherently
not optimized.
Washington has set a goal of a million new plug-ins by 2015. As the largest
fleet owner, it could offset high costs for initial prototypes. Federal
procurement could spark retrofits to military and civilian pickups, shuttle
vans and buses. Innovation-friendly regulations could pave the way to rapid
approval of conversion designs.
"Cash for Clunkers" could expand to incentivize converting vehicles, helping
companies get started. Washington put a toe in the water with a 10% tax
credit for plug-in conversions, up to $4,000. With gas over $3, a conversion
industry could take off if, like the Chevy Volt, the first 200,000 of each
model like the Chevy Silverado could get a $7,500 credit.
This could lead to financing by automotive "energy service companies,"
which, like those working with building owners, could offer fleet owners
one-day conversions at no up-front cost, with the installer collecting
credits and sharing in fuel savings over time.
None of this depends on new technologies or infrastructure. Silicon Valley
can show Detroit how continuous improvements and upgrades can accelerate the
transition from foreign oil to domestic electricity. Visionary entrepreneurs
can pluck the low-hanging fruit. We can finally align the interests of
buyers, sellers, and get everyone rooting for great cars from a profitable
industry.
Serial entrepreneur Felix Kramer is the founder of Calcars.org, a Palo Alto,
CA-based nonprofit promoting plug-in hybrids. (He is also an advisor to
several aftermarket retrofit companies.) For more see "Conversions to
electrify World's 900+ Million Cars."
http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www/calcars.org-news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Below we include news about GM, Toyota and Ford, plus a major story
in the New Yorker magazine, and an invitation to unsuccessful
applicants for recent US Energy Department grants to share some
information about the process from their perspective.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
MISIMPRESSION FROM READING HEADLINES ON GM: If you've read the
alarming news along the lines of "Citing lack of consumer interest,
focus group reactions, GM pulls the plug on Buick plug-in hybrid,"
you'd assume it's a setback for plug-in cars....WRONG! The PHEV was
migrating to Buick as GM divested its Saturn division, so it was
planning to rebrand the Vue, changing grills and trim, for its
standard, hybrid and PHEV versions. What happened? Attendees at a GM
future vehicles showcase mocked the result as the "Vuick" because it
lacked luxury features. Vice Chairman Tom Stephens at GM's Fastlane
blog
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2009/08/reports_from_the_front.html
explained that "The Buick crossover we showed received consistent
feedback from large parts of all the audiences that it didn't fit the
premium characteristics that customers have come to expect from
Buick. So the vehicle was cancelled, and along with it, its future
PHEV version." Stephens cited the decision as proof of GM's new
responsiveness and ability to act quickly "to take swift action to
prevent a potential underperformer from reaching the marketplace."
Confirming that the PHEV version's cancellation was a side-effect, he
emphasized, "And we decided that the important plug-in hybrid
technology would be applied to another vehicle, at no delay, that
we'll discuss in the very near future."
230 MPG CHEVY VOLT, 367 MPG LEAF: First, some background: in 2004,
when CalCars.org first converted a Prius, we succeeded in getting out
the message that the auto industry could built cars that use much
less fossil fuels. Everyone got a kick out of the large 100+MPG
stickers on our cars. (Concerned not to overstate, on flyers, we
regularly added an asterisk, "plus a penny a mile of electricity." In
photos of our driving results http://www.calcars.org/photos and in
testimony about our calculations at venues including the California
Air Resources Board http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/531.html , we
explained that factoring back in electricity led to 80+ MPG equivalent.)
The slogan took off, showing up in speeches by elected officials,
media headlines, and on after-market conversion companies' signs,
including Raser's recent Hummer PHEV. 100+MPG was the starting point
for the Automotive X Prize. Organizations like Set America Free and
journalists like Fareed Zakaria pointed out that an E-85 PHEV could
get 500 MPG of gasoline plus ethanol plus electricity. We succeeded
in creating a "meme" -- a catch-phrase/idea/cultural unit that
spreads broadly from person to person much as a gene spreads
biologically) (We had similar successes with our use of the short
"dongle" extension cord, and with "cleaner/cheaper/domestic" to
describe electricity's advantages over gasoline.)
Recently, after a national "teaser" ad campaign, GM announced the
Chevy Volt would get 230 MPG of gasoline on the Environmental
Protection Agency's "Recommended Practice For Measuring The Exhaust
Emissions And Fuel Economy Of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles." The EPA
didn't confirm GM's claims; then Nissan jumped in and said its EV
Leaf would get 367 MPG, and Bill Ford called for a more user-friendly
and meaningful number from the EPA. In general, we think the
discussion is almost entirely positive -- continuing to reinforce the
message that with PHEVs and EVs we could vastly exceed the recently
agreed upon vehicle efficiency standards of 39MPG for passenger
vehicles and 30 MPG for light trucks by 2016. We were quoted by
Reuters as saying, "The sticker problem has not been solved yet."
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE57F1OX20090816.
The best scenarios would be new stickers that give drivers
indications of cents per mile for a standard drive cycle based on
national average costs for gasoline and electricity, as well as
greenhouse gas emissions per mile driven based on the national grid's
CO2 characteristics
MEDIA ON TOYOTA AND PLUG-INS: Journalists and analysts are saying
Toyota may be lagging in the race. The NY Times, in a story
headlined, "Toyota, Hybrid Innovator, Holds Back in Race to Go
Electric,"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/business/energy-environment/20electric.html
reports that Toyota cites inadequate batteries and speculates that
the company "would like to profit all it can from the current
technology before shifting to a new one." The article cites multiple
consumer, government and infrastructure conditions favorable to EVs
"falling into place," and suggests that unless Toyota speeds up its
plans, the arrival of disruptive technology could cause it to lose
its market leadership position. It also reports, "Toyota's new
president, Akio Toyoda, has become a big promoter of the company's
fuel cells, which he calls the 'ultimate' technology. But fuel cell
cars, which produce electricity from hydrogen, would take even longer
than battery-electric vehicles to commercialize."
Hybridcars.com's Brad Berman has since then interviewed two Toyota
executives, Doug Coleman, US-based Prius product manager and Jana
Hartline, Toyota's environmental communication manager
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/exclusive-toyota-explains-position-electric-cars-\
26031.html.
Their more balanced though still negative view spurned continuing
periodic misleading statements by Toyota about comparative
environmental benefits, as well as provocative speculations that the
total market for PHEVs could be as low as 3,500
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a.zO9jgEc7MU and
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/toyota-plug-in-hybrids-will-have-limi\
ted-appeal
FORD PROMOTES ITS LONG-TERM VEHICLE-TO-GRID PLANS: Working to stay in
the race despite having plans now only for an EV commercial van in
2010, an all-electric compact in 2011, and a PHEV in 2012, Ford has
announced a "smart" charging concept that other automakers say is
similar to many of their vehicle-based approaches. The communication
and control system, integrated with utilities' forthcoming "smart
meters," will be demonstrated on 21 Escape PHEV prototypes
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204044204574358802757138692.html
. It's encouraging to hear Ford touting the long-term benefits of V2G
(which most utilities say will be proceeded by V2B integrating
plug-in vehicles with residential and commercial building energy
systems). It's also worth remember Southern California Edison
Director of Electric Transportation Ed Kjaer's often-repeated
admonition that the first priority remains to "get the wheels on the
road." (SCE has been partnering with Ford on demonstration projects
since 2007.)
NEW YORKER ON PLUG-INS: The August 24 issue (with the Brooklyn Bridge
on cover) Letter from California: "Plugged In: Is the electric car
the future?, by Tad Friend, gives the prestigious magazine's stamp of
approval to plug-in cars. The entertaining piece's focus is on Tesla
Motors and its CEO and largest investor, Elon Musk. Along the way it
spends some time describing GM's Volt series PHEV as it tells the
story of the two vehicles' treatment by David Letterman. It ends with
a provocative comparison of possible sales rates for Tesla and GM 10
years from now that points up how long it will take for new vehicle
production to scale up.
CONTINUING ANALYSIS OF US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY RECOVERY GRANTS: After
we reported on the announcement of the winners in the $2.4 billion
program http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1068.html , which we
described as "mixed results," funding many worthwhile projects but
puzzlingly omitting others, we have heard from unsuccessful
applicants who have since received from DOE 3- to 5-page summaries of
Merit Review Committee reports on the strengths and weaknesses of
their applications. In several cases, they describe incomplete or
inconsistent evaluations. We have been asked by journalists to
provide them with examples. If we do so, our goal will be not so much
to critique DOE as to motivate an improved approach for any future
solicitations. (Expected in the near future are awards in the $300
million Clean Cities Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology
Vehicles Pilot Program that could fund an additional 30 programs.) We
encourage readers of CalCars-News who submitted applications to send
us the 1-page non-confidential summary PDF of your project, your DOE
evaluation, plus a brief analysis that covers objective, verifiable
matters of fact on topics such as:
* correlations and non-correlations between your application and
strengths/weaknesses described;
* indications reviewers didn't view material in your application or
attachments;
* indications of lack of familiarity or understanding for the subject matter;
* internally self-contradictory statements in review.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
At last month's Plug In 2009 conference and since, we've seen quite a
bit of news about conversions. They confirm the case we've been
making: because the world can't wait 10-20 more years to begin to
achieve substantial fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas reductions we
can't rely solely on new vehicles. To make a difference, given the
hundreds of millions of vehicles on the road, we have to step up to
the challenge of finding viable ways to convert large numbers of
already-built gas guzzlers. Below we start with several significant
validations of this view; then we describe promising policy and
government actions that can help us get there and offer a look back
at cash for clunkers, followed by descriptions of new prototypes and
new players entering the internal combustion engine business. We
conclude with big news about increasingly affordable and advanced
conversions of hybrids to plug-ins, which started the ball rolling
and will help us get to the next stage.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
I. YOU CAN'T GET THERE FROM HERE (QUICKLY ENOUGH)
IN OUR MAY WHITE PAPER, "Cash for clunkers Paves the Way to Retrofit
Gas Guzzlers," (http://www.calcars.org/scrap-or-retrofit.html for web
and 8-page PDF versions) we asked what if "business as usual"
ended and we ramped rapidly up to a point where 100% of U.S. new
vehicle sales by 2030 were plug-ins. Under that scenario, oil
consumption that year would drop only 20% -- because new cars would
still amount to less than 40% of the entire fleet of vehicles on the
road. If you recognize the urgency of reducing CO2 and fossil fuel
use in the next two decades and then consider modest current goals
that are always described as ambitious and aggressive, you'll see how
far we have to go. The U.S. goal of one million plug-ins by 2015 will
by then amount to 0.25% of all vehicles. Canada's goal of a
half-million by 2018 and Germany's of one million by 2020 will be
about 2%. As analysts see the gap, we hope they will start to ask the
logical next question: "Can we can do something to fix many vehicles
in the existing fleet?"
OIL INDUSTRY GURU'S PROJECTIONS: In the August 31 Wall Street
Journal, we find a measured projection of what's likely ten years
beyond government-set goals. It's from Daniel Yergin, a leading
global oil expert, working on an updated version of his Pulitzer
Prize-winning "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power,"
and chair of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Yergin
attended one of the 2005 Oil Shockwave simulations
http://secureenergy.org/shockwave_overview.php that helped put PHEVs
on the map. Until now, he has been relatively measured on electric
drive. Now he's come around on plug-in vehicles and recognizes the
market penetration challenge in "Why Oil Still Has a Future: Demand
in the developing world trumps new technology"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203706604574370511700484236.html
"For oil, the focus is on transportation. After all, only 2% of
America's electricity is generated by oil. Until recently, it
appeared that the race between the electric car and the
gasoline-powered car had been decided a century ago, with a decisive
win by the gasoline-powered car on the basis of cost and performance.
But the race is clearly on. Yet, whatever the breakthroughs, the
actual impact on fuel use for the next 20 years will be incremental
due to the time it takes to get large-scale mass production up and
running and the massive scale of the global auto industry. My firm,
IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major
bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and
pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030.
But because of the slow turn-over of the overall fleet, gasoline
consumption would be reduced only modestly below what it would
otherwise be. Thereafter, of course, the impact could grow, perhaps
very substantially."
YERGIN AND GRUNWALD IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAGAZINE: As we were reviewing
this projection, we saw that Yergin's article is a promotion for a
longer piece in the September/October issue of the prestigious
Foreign Policy Magazine, whose cover has the theme, "Oil: The Long
Goodbye" http://www.foreignpolicy.com/issues/174/contents . Yergin's
lead story there, "It's Still the
One"
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/17/its_still_the_one ,
probably written months before, does not contain the same endorsement
of plug-in vehicles. However, in that issue, highly worth reading is
TIME Magazine's Michael Grunwald's "Seven Myths About Alternative
Energy,: with the summary, "As the world looks around anxiously for
an alternative to oil, energy sources such as biofuels, solar, and
nuclear seem like they could be the magic ticket. They're not."
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/12/seven_myths_about_alternative_e\
nergy
Grunwald provides a refreshing critiques of many current ideas:
trying everything (he says, "why not at least agree that governments
shouldn't pick losers to be winners"); current and future biofuels
(he cites studies that biomass is better to turn into electricity
than liquid fuels); nuclear power; (slow-to-build and very
costly) the need for new "breakthrough" technologies (he says we can
use what we already have). Grunwald resoundingly endorses starting
with efficiency, including incentives to utilities for "negawatts;" a
different path for the developing world; and he says, "In the medium
term, the world needs plug-in electric cars, the only plausible
answer to humanity's oil addiction that isn't decades away.")
CALCARS' "21ST CENTUREY CAR INDUSTRY: FIXED IN THE USA" opinion
piece, distributed at Plug In 2009, has been well received. It was
originally published at Gas2.org, where it attracted some comments,
and at AutoBlogGreen
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/08/11/is-retro-fitting-older-vehicles-the-solutio\
n-to-accelerating-ele/.
And Plug In America has released video of the conference's Public
Session, where panelists Bill Nye the Science Guy, Chris Paine and
Chelsea Sexton from Who Killed the Electric Car and its sequel,
called on Felix to explain conversions, which turned into an
unexpected extended explanation of gas-guzzler conversions. You can
jup in the 78-minute YouTube streaming video to 57:20-63:30 for Felix
and Ron Gremban at 68:30.
CONVERSIONS AND GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
THE JAPANESE POSTAL SERVICE has begun a world-first project to
convert 25% of its 22,000 delivery vehicles to all-electric vehicles.
Partners include Ener1 for batteries, Think Electric for drivetrain,
and ZeroSports
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/\
07-27-2009/0005066356&EDATE=
THE U.S. POSTAL SERVICE's Office of Inspector General has just issued
a report, "Electrification of Postal Service Delivery Vehicles,"
<http://www.uspsoig.gov/FOIA_files/DA-WP-09-001.pdf>http://www.uspsoig.gov/FOIA_\
<http://www.uspsoig.gov/FOIA_files/DA-WP-09-001.pdf>files/DA-WP-09-001.pdf
proposing a pilot program that would position it to become a
"national laboratory for testing of electric vehicles." Its 146,000
long-life delivery vehicles average 10 MPG. The report estimates it
could reduce costs per mile from $0.33 to $0.05. It makes the case
based on its fleet's average 18-mile/day drive cycle (95% are under
40 miles). However, the Postal Service has no funds available for
vehicle acquisition; it's hoping to get federal funds to acquire
several thousand vehicles and offer early testing facilities for
vehicle-to-grid demonstration projects (potentially gaining revenues
from V2G)..
The Postal Service report does not include scenarios involving EV
conversions for its existing vehicles, but its breakdowns of the age
of its fleet show how possible this could be. Most were built between
1988-1994. 70% of these sturdy vehicles (aluminum bodies built by
Grumman, a GM chassis based on a Chevrolet S-10 pickup truck) have at
least five years of life left. We would expect that once converted,
their lifetime could extend further than their projected 24 years as
internal combustion vehicles. We hope any future analyses or
prototype development projects will take this option into account.
ONTARIO: In July, we noted the provincial plan for a "1 in 20"
campaign (1 of 20 cars by 2020 will plug in) including rebates from
C$4-10,000
(US$3,575-$8,938)
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/ontario-rebates-20090715.html
. We've begun a dialogue with Canadian advocates to extend those
incentives to conversions, and we will be making the case now and in
our presentation in Montreal at Plug-In 2009 (see
http://www.calcars.org/events.html ). This level of incentive could
go far in jump-starting a large conversion industry and in enlisting
automakers as partners. (By the way, upon hearing that the Chevy Volt
would be eligible for more than the $7,500 incentive in the U.S.,
Toyota, left behind with its meager commitment to build a 500-vehicle
low-range PHEV test fleet worldwide by 2010 complained to the
provincial government. Toyota Canada Managing Director Stephen Beatty
said, "We're not entirely convinced that the technology is a winning
proposition for consumers today"
http://gm-volt.com/2009/07/17/canadian-government-gives-10000-chevy-volt-subsidy\
-angers-toyota/
.)
CASH FOR CLUNKERS RETROSPECTIVE: As the $3 billion program concluded,
with 700,000 vehicles scrapped, some analysts including Edmunds CEO
Jeremy Anwyl see the brief boost to new car sales followed by a
"hangover" -- a subsequent plunge in sales. We're still hoping any
future version will include "cash for conversions" as well as for
scrapping. Meanwhile, in remarks at a "National Clean Energy Summit
in Las Vegas" held at the same time as Plug In 2009, former President
Bill Clinton suggested getting "as close to cash for clunkers as you
can" with a $10,00 credit for electric vehicles, shown in 45 seconds
at http://thinkprogress.org/2009/08/10/wjc-c4c/ and discussed at
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/08/bill-clinton-national-clean-energy-summi\
t-electric-cars-for-clunkers-las-vegas.php
, A thoughtful posting at the Quotidian Blog,
http://thequotidian.org/2009/08/04/what-cash-for-clunkers-could-have-been-used-f\
or/
talks about PHEVs and "what could have been." A NYTimes evaluation,
"Clunkers Don't Come Cheap"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/31/opinion/31mon4.html , described the
program as "a spectacularly inefficient way to implement
environmental policy." In predicting the new vehicles will be driven
more than the old ones, the editorial comes close to recognizing a
point we've been making about measuring environmental benefits: the
new car (often 25-30MPG) should logically be compared to multi-car
households' former "first car," (often 20-25 MPG) used for everyday
driving, rather than to the previously rarely-used 15 MPG clunker.
The Times highlights the program's cost per ton in the hundreds of
dollars of carbon saved and says the program could have been
improved, though the best solution would be a gas tax with rebates
for low-income drivers, or, embracing the near-universal assumption
that a gas tax is always political suicide, a revenue-neutral
"feebate" program.
GAS GUZZLER CONVERSION COMPANIES
BRIGHT AUTOMOTIVE PHEV CONVERSION: At Plug In 2009, this Anderson,
Indiana startup by industry veterans announced its consulting
services for designs of PHEV and EV conversions of existing
vehicles. (This spring, the company unveiled the Bright IDEA, a
reconceptualized commercial delivery van scheduled for large-scale
production in 2013. We described that vehicle, the company, and its
origins as a spinoff of the Rocky Mountain Institute in our April 24,
2009 posting to CalCars-News
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1057.html .) It takes a long time
to raise money (it's received $20 million from Google, Alcoa and Duke
Energy and others, and is seeking $450 million in loans from the US
Department of Energy) and then to bring a new vehicle to market.
Bright, wanting to deploy its expert team productively, has decided
to offer a preview of its technology. The "stepping stone to the
IDEA" in 2010 will be a prototype built on the Volkswagen Transporter
T-5 platform. This relatively lightweight vehicle, globally popular
but not sold in the U.S.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Transporter_%28T5%29 , comes
in cargo, cab-chassis/pickup and passenger versions. The conversion
program described at
http://www.brightautomotive.com/solutions/vehicle-conversions.html
includes a flyer comparing 15-22 MPG vans available. Specs for the
Transporter conversion give it a 22 mile all-electric range, and 57
MPG for a 50-mile daily drive cycle (the optimized IDEA will get 100
MPG). See coverage and comments at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/08/bright-transporter-20090811.html
and http://www.detnews.com/article/20090820/AUTO03/908200367/1149/ .
RAPID ELECTRIC VEHICLES EV CONVERSION: At Plug In 2009, this
Vancouver, British Columbia company unveiled its 100 mile
all-electric range 0-100 mile/hour in seven seconds conversion of the
Ford Escape Hybrid. It partnered with Coulomb Technologies to show
"Level 2" (240-volt) charging in 3.5 hours. The vehicle then made a
West Coast tour, stopping at multiple cities to meet with prospective
customers. (Initial prototypes of the vehicle will sell for over
$60,000, with the goal of reducing that to $30,000 in volume.) REV,
also focusing on Ford F-150 and Ranger pickups, says it is making
rapid progress in "productizing" its prototype so it can be installed
quickly and easily by mechanics anywhere, and will announce
relationships with suppliers and U,S. and Canadian industry partners.
For more about the company and its business model, see a
broad-ranging roundup story, "Fleets Likely to Spur Clunker, Guzzler
Conversions to Plug Ins"
http://alternativeenergy.com/profiles/blogs/fleets-likely-to-spur-clunker
(including quotes from us about the market opportunities) and
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/08/13/rapid-electric-vehicles-rev-offering-45-000\
-ford-fleet-vehicl/
HYBRID CONVERSION COMPANIES AND REGULATORY NEWS
ENGINER http://www.enginer.us sells complete 2kWh and 4kWh lithium
battery systems for $1,995 and $2,995. This lowest-priced of all
conversion options can uniquely also be installed in Generation 1
(pre-2004) Priuses. Enginer has installer partners and offers
do-it-yourself instructions. The MIchigan-based company is a
consortium between AutomationTech Inc, USA and Australia-owned
Enginer Environmentech Ltd., China. AutoBlog Green describes the
Enginer system
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/08/11/enginer-claims-to-have-2-000-plug-in-prius-\
conversion-kit-ready/
. See link to photo of 2002 Prius conversion screen converted
February 2009 at http://www.calcars.org/where-phevs-are and we're
adding links to this company at our popular "How to Get a PHEV" page
http://www.calcarsorg/howtoget.html .
PLUG-IN CONVERSIONS/LUSCIOUS GARAGE: See an eight-minute interview
http://www.examiner.com/x-7102-LA-Alternative-Transportation-Examiner~y2009m8d17\
-Plug-In-2009-Luscious-Garage
with Carolyn Coquillette, whose Luscious Garage is the exclusive San
Francisco installer for the Prius conversion from Plug-In
Conversions, using Gold Peak nickel-metal hydride batteries and
offering all-electric driving at highway speeds. (A PICC system is
being installed in CalCars' Ron Gremban's car, which has been a
platform for demonstrating multiple technologies since it became the
"world's first Prius PHEV" in November 2004.)
CALIFORNIA AIR RESOIURCES BOARD REGULATORY LANGUAGE: The ARB has just
posted drafts for rulemaking about PHEV test procedures and
aftermarket certification requirements at
http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2008/phev09/phev09.htm .Most relevant
are the Notice of Availability of Modified Text and Attachment 5's
final language for the criteria approved May 28, which we reported on
at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1061.html , Conversion
companies and the public can submit comments for 15 days, until
September 14, at http://www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bclist.php .
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
You'll find more items here than in any previous
posting to CalCars-News. It's no longer possible
to follow everything, but we hope to help
spotlight developments you may have missed.
Meanwhile, we're catching up as we prepare to go
to Washington DC for meetings this Thursday and
Fridayl to advocate for a new industry converting
internal combustion vehicles to plug in. This
time we want to build a coalition from the start!
We've posted "The Big Fix: 16 Founding Points for
the Campaign to Upgrade Gas Guzzlers" plus a
preliminary individual and institutional
endorsement form at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-bigfix-points.pdf
. Please send us your comments and endorsements!
We're also getting ready for a trip to Mumbai,
India in late October, where we hope to meet with
automakers -- we would appreciate any contacts or mutual introductions!
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
Here's what you'll find below:
1. AUTOMOTIVE AND SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES
* Fisker gets $528 million federal loan, has first test-drive of Karma
* Toyota releases spec on Prius PHEV for 500 unit
test fleet; explains its hesitations
* Audi's president backtracks on "Volt is For Idiots" comment
* BYD pushes for Chinese government to increase subsidies
* Frankfurt Auto Show roundup: Mercedes, Opel, Vauxhall, Volvo, Hyundai
* A123Systems expected to go public within days
* US Army's TARDEC R&D lab
* How different carmakers are getting to their projected MPG numbers
* McKinsey analysts says European carmakers need
plug-ins to meet carbon standards
* Studies show no lithium supply shortage
* Ann Marie Sastry profiled for academic and battery company work
2. GOVERNMENT POLICY AND FUNDING
* Two bills pass House: HR 3246 $2.9B for
multiple purposes, and HR 445 for heavy duty
hybrids, both including conversions
* Clarifications on DOE incentives for plug-ins
* Clean Cities awards continue DOE pattern
* California Energy Commission recalibrates
strategy, releases names of applicants
* Ohio study sees 10,500 jobs from plug-ins
* Iceland continues evolution toward electricity
3. MARKETS, CONSUMERS, CONVERSIONS
* Calculate your total cost of ownership with Project Get Ready's calculator
* Survey: 48% want PHEVs and will pay more for them
* Market penetration studies confirm need for gas-guzzler conversions
* Autoblog Green and Bright Automotive on gas-guzzler conversions
* Colorado's $6,000 tax credit for conversions
* CalCars' presentation, "Accelerating Vehicle Electrification" is online
* Building management companies in NY get ready with charging stations
* US Energy Department's building retrofit
program could be model for conversions
4. MEDIA:
* Volt rates high in US News & World Report consumer perspective
* Follow PHEV news with Google's FastFlip service
* "Fuel" movie promotes biofuel PHEVs, includes algae/electric Prius.
* Fortune calls Zipcar "Best New Idea;" company brings Ford & Toyota along
* Electric Examiner website tracks plug-in news
* Cute electric car video
* Joe Romm's Climate Progress blog turns three
* Wall Street Journal analyses the decline of the biofuel industry
* Thomas Friedman reinforces call for gasoline tax
5. EVENTS
* Rocky Mountain Institute's annual symposium,
San Francisco Oct 1-3 includes plug-ins
* Motor City's first conference on plug-in cars Oct 19-21
* One more thing...
1. AUTOMOTIVE AND SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES
FISKER GETS $528M FEDERAL LOAN: These funds, from
the Federal $25 billion Advanced Technologies
Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program, until now
have gone mostly to large carmakers and Tesla.
The loan will principally fund "Project NINA," to
design, engineer and assemble Fisker's
second-generation, $39,000 sedan, for sale
starting in 2012 in volumes over 100,000/year.
The company estimates it will create or save
5,000 supplier jobs and thousands more for
manufacturing. CEO Henrik Fisker has said he's
seeking a shut-down assembly plant. Is is it too
late for the Fremont GM-Toyota NUMMI plant?
http://www.businessinsider.com/fisker-looking-for-a-factory-in-the-us-to-build-n\
ew-plug-in-hybrid-2009-9.
Meanwhile, the first-generation Karma $88,000
luxury PHEV, 19 months after being announced,
currently with 1,500 pre-orders and 45 dealers,
had its first public test drive
http://gas2.org/2009/08/17/fisker-karma-phev-makes-world-driving-debut/
. Fisker has taken a different approach than GM
on mileage claims, saying its first vehicle will
get 67MPG, based on criteria from the Society of
Automotive Engineers (SAE) instead of US government measures.
TOYOTA RELEASES PROTOTYPE PHEV SPEC; EXPLAINS WHY
IT'S GOING SLOW ON PHEVS: The Prius PHEV shown at
Frankfurt, with 500 destined for fleets, and no
production commitment, has an all-electric range
of 12.4 miles at up to 62MPG, using a lithium-ion
battery for the first time for Toyota. Toyota
cited studies showing that 55% of French and 80%
of United kingdom drives are under 10km. See two
extended interviews/analyses at
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/exclusive-toyota-explains-position-electric-cars-\
26031.html
and
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/20/business/energy-environment/20electric.html?_r\
=1
.
AUDI'S PRESIDENT BACKTRACKS ON "VOLT IS FOR
IDIOTS" COMMENT: Audi President Johan de Nysschen
regrets and attempts to clarify his statement
(original at
http://editorial.autos.msn.com/blogs/autosblogpost.aspx?post=1247701
) -- adding comments that perpetuate inaccuracies
and mis-perceptions about plug-in cars:
http://gm-volt.com/2009/09/03/audi-president-issues-statement-qualifying-his-cla\
im-the-chevy-volt-is-a-car-for-idiots/
. GM responded briefly:
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/09/04/gm-responds-to-audis-volt-is-for-idiots-rem\
ark/
Audi is largely diesel-focused, though it did
show an "e-tron" concept car (with wheel motors) at the Frankfort Auto Show.
NEWS FROM CHINESE BATTERYMAKER AND PHEV
MANUFACTURER BYD: Recent headlines said BYD sales
of its F3DM PHEVs (the first to be sold in the
world) were disappointing: under 100 to fleet
customers. The company cities this to make the
case that the Chinese government will need to
provide charging facilities and substantial
consumer subsidies for the $22,000 car (expensive
in China) when it's sold to the public
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125224741297789219.html
. Other stories noted that the company's stock
rose 648% in a year (since Warren Buffet's
company bought a 10% share)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abs36l8uOOE4.
BYD now expects to bring its cars to the U.S. in 2011.
FRANKFURT AUTO SHOW ROUNDUP: Mercedes showed the
Vision S500 PHEV gasoline PHEV concept vehicle
with a 19 mile all-electric range and CO2
emissions of 74 grams/km in the New European
Driving Cycle and an E300 BlueTEC diesel PHEV.
Opel/Vauxhall (to be owned by Canada's Magna and
Russia's Sherbank) showed the Ampera version of
the Volt, and will build the Antara blended PHEV.
Volvo said it will launch a diesel PHEV in 2012
in Europe and a gasoline version in Japan I 2013,
but provided few details, and said it could not
find a business case for bringing the vehicle to
the U.S.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20090921/ANA03/309219983/1257
. Hyundai showed the Blue-Will, a PHEV concept
car. Citroen showed an aptly-named "Revolte"
series PHEV. BMW showed the Vision
EfficientDynamics concept diesel PHEV supercar
with electric motors on both axles; media went
out of their way to say no one expects will be
built. See a NY Times industry roundup/analysis
"To Hopeful Makers, the Electric Car's Time Is
Here"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/automobiles/14electric.html
and a Detroit News analyses that quotes many
industry figures "Europe plugs in after years of
touting diesel"
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20090914/AUTO04/909140400/1148 .
A123SYSTEMS IPO AWAITED: Be on the lookout for
the initial public offering of A123Systems, the
Watertown, Massachusetts-based batterymaker
providing cells and packs for many carmakers. The
company started out of MIT; got a name for itself
by supplying batteries for hand tools, acquired
Hymotion, the Ontario hybrid conversion company,
gained GE and other big players as investors and
contended for the contract to supply the Chevy
Volt. Its automotive customers include BMW,
Chrysler, GM, and Shanghai Automotive Industry
Corp. It's received a US Energy Department grant
of $249 million (which it has to match) plus
funds from the State of Michigan, and has applied
for a $235 million DOE manufacturing loan. It
registered for an IPO more than a year ago but
ran into the bank crisis. The company, trading
under the ticker name AONE, raised its per-share
price this week, and is expected to raise over
$200 million, which could give it a total market
capitalization (stock value) near $1 billion. The
IPO is expected to further validate the business
prospects of existing public and private
companies and new entrants. (We would never offer
advice to anyone on whether to invest!)
TARDEC: MILITARY PHEVS: Often expensive
low-volume solutions developed for the armed
forces end up paving the way for mass-produced
consumer products. See the website of the Warren,
Michigan-based R&D lab, RDECOM/TARDEC: Research,
Development and Engineering Command U.S Army Tank
Automotive Research, Development and Engineering
Center and its Fuel Efficiency Ground Vehicle
Demonstrator (FED) program
http://www.peogcs.army.mil/fed/default.aspx for
news of military efforts at fuel efficiency. See
a 6-mile all-electric range PHEV Humvee at the
Department of Defense Energy Blog
http://dodenergy.blogspot.com/2008/09/hybrid-humvee.html .
MPG CLAIMS: For a broad explanation of the
issue (two different federal agencies are
involved, the Environmental Protection Agency for
consumer stickers, and the National
Transportation Safety Administration for CAFÉ
standards), the blog by the National Journal
http://energytopic.nationaljournal.com/2009/09/electric-cars-advance-sticker.php
includes comments by us, Roland Hwang of NRDC and
others, and mentions an important new
development: "for the first time ever, the EPA is
tasked with setting federal standards for
greenhouse gas emissions in a 'grams per mile of
carbon dioxide' measurement so consumers will
know how their new ride affects the environment."
(We're catching up to the Europeans' requiring
automakers to meet "grams per kilometer" of CO2
levels in recent regulations.) For more on
mileage calculations, including a new calculator
tool and discussion of "miles per gallon
equivalent" (MPGE) from the Progressive
Automotive X Prize see
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/08/21/auto-x-prize-throws-water-on-gms-230-mpg-cl\
aim-offers-mpge-cal/
MCKINSEY ANALYST ON EUROPEAN CO2 VEHICLE
CHALLENGE: As Europe's requirements for its
vehicle fleets head toward a goal of 98 grams of
CO2 per kilometer by 2020, Christian Maloney of
the German office of consulting group McKinsey &
Co. says the only way the automakers can get
there and make money is with plug-in vehicles.
http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=21688
NO LITHIUM SHORTAGE FOR BATTERIES: Two reports:
from the Institute for the Analysis of Global
Security (the group that created Set America Free
coalition
http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=213:the-future\
-of-electric-vehicles-setting-the-record-straight-on-lithium-availability&catid=\
98:issuecontent0809&Itemid=349
and from Gas2org
http://gas2.org/2009/09/10/the-world-has-enough-lithium-for-electric-cars-its-th\
e-other-bits-were-short-on/
And an informative roundup on future battery
trends at
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/whats-next-in-lithium-batteries .
ANN MARIE SASTRY: UP & COMING AUTO EXEC: Crains
Detroit Business
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20090906/AWARDS/309069984/1168#
profiles Sastry, who wears two hats: leading the
University of Michigan's Energy Systems
Engineering Master's Degree program, including an
Advanced Battery Coalition for Drivetrains, a
lithium-ion battery R&D partnership among GM and
UM and the Michigan Economic Development Corp.,
Oak Ridge National Laboratories and others.
Sastry is at the same time CEO of Sakti3, a
lithium-ion battery startup, funded with
investments from the State of Michian and from
Khosla Ventures (hedging its large bets on
biofuels). She'll be speaking at the Detroit
conference Oct. 19-21, "The Business of Plugging IN."
GOVERNMENT POLICY AND FUNDING
ANOTHER LARGE PLUG-IN BILL PASSES THE HOUSE: By a
strong margin of 312-114, the House passed H.R.
3246, the Advanced Vehicle Technology Act of 2009
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-3246
, $2.85 billion from 2010-2014, 39% for medium-
and heavy-duty commercial vehicles. We're pleased
that "retrofitting advanced vehicle technologies
to existing vehicles" and to "existing truck
fleets: are included in funded areas.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/09/hr3246-20090917.html
. We'll see what happens in the Senate.
HOUSE APPROVES HEAVY DUTY HYBRID BILL: By a voice
vote (!), the House approved H.R. 445, the Heavy
Duty Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and
Demonstration Act of 2009
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-445
, authored by Wisconsin Republican Rep. James
Sensenbrenner, Jr., from Wisconsin, where custom
truck-maker Dueco http://www.dueco.com/ (which
acquired Odyne earlier this year) is located.
Sponsors estimate heavy trucks use 1/4 of the
nation's fuel. The program provides 3-7 grants of
$3 million a year for program including PHEVs.
The bill also passed the House last year; this
time, Sensenbrenner hopes Senator Kohl will move the bill through the Senate.
CLARIFICATION OF DOE INCENTIVES FOR PLUG-INS:
Some people are getting wrong how the federal
$7,500 tax credit for up to 200,000
vehicles/manufacturer credit works. For example,
at the Atlantic Magazine website, "Could Plug-In
Tax Credits Be Clunkers All Over Again?"
http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/08/could_plug-in_tax_credits_be_clunkers_al\
l_over_again.php
asserts that the credit begins to phase out 6
months after each manufacturer puts vehicles on
the market. In fact, this "Phaseout Period" to
50% levels, then 25%, then zero begins two
quarters after the quarter in which the 200,000
vehicle sales level is met. To check it this for
yourself, see the Recovery Act (HR1) final
version, Section 1141, subsection (e)(2),
numbered page 54 via http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.1.enr:
CLEAN CITIES AWARDS CONTINUE DOE PATTERN: Some
weeks ago, we wrote about the US Department of
Energy ARRA (stimulus program) grants for
batteries and for vehicle electrification. You'll
recall we said both that many worthy programs
received grants and that we were very
disappointed at the geographical skews and that
so many innovative small companies, technology
developers, leading regional plug-in coalitions,
and advocacy groups were overlooked. (See
CalCars-News and a summary story at
http://www.hybridcars.com/incentives-laws/critics-24-billion-electric-car-grants\
-were-biased-25962.html
.) In late August, DOE announced the last in a
series of awards, the $300M Clean Cities Awards,
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/08/clean-cities-300m-20090826.html.
While it includes a scattering of funding for
electrification and charging stations, most of it
is for carbon-based liquid fuels or non-pluggable hybrids.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISION RECALIBRATES: With
the results of the three federal programs
announced, officials at the California Energy
Commission now say that their much-applauded
strategy, (to allocate the first two years of AB
118 funds to provide local matches to award
winners) didn't work out as expected. CEC has
released its complete list of the companies that
applied for a total of $231 million in matching
funds but did not receive federal awards
http://www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/PON-08-010_NOPA.PDF
. With California almost entirely frozen out of
the awards, CEC matched awards with $15 million.
It has gone back to the drawing board, and will
soon announce new short-term solicitations for
the allocation of the remaining tens of millions of dollars.
OHIO STUDY SEES 10,500 JOBS FROM EV TECH &
MANUFACATURING: Establishing an " electric
transportation innovation center" in Northern
Ohio could lead to 10,500 jobs in vehicle and
component production, The study commissioned by
the Cleveland Foundation was conducted by the
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) with
FirstEnergy Corp.
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS121062+21-Sep-2009+BW20090921
ICELAND SEES PLUG-IN FUTURE Two years after
CalCars and others made the case at the first
Driving Sustainability conference, Iceland, which
once saw hydrogen as the answer, is swiftly
ramping up its commitment to plug-in cars and is
hoping for a Nordic consortium. Our favorite line
from Jim Motavalli's interview with Iceland's
President: "With its ultra-cheap electricity (as
low as 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour), Grímsson
estimates that consumers will be able to drive
their EVs for a year on what it now costs to fill
their cars up once or twice with gasoline."
http://www.thedailygreen.com/living-green/blogs/cars-transportation/iceland-pres\
ident-clean-cars
and
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/10002420/icelands-president-pushes-for-evsand-a-10\
0-percent-clean-energy-economy/
MARKETS, CONSUMERS, CONVERSIONS
PROJECT GET READY'S TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP
CALCULATOR: This first iteration of a useful tool
http://projectgetready.com/js/tco.html enables
you to compare two vehicles, including a range of
plug-in vehicles expected to hit the market in
the next few years. It includes explanations of
its assumptions and methodology, a FAQ, plus,
most importantly, an "advanced" mode that enables
you to fine-tune many of the key assumptions,
including driving profiles and electricity costs.
PGR is very eager to get feedback to evolve the
tool.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/a-calculator-for-comparing-electrics\
-hybrids-and-regular-cars/
48% IN U.S. WANT PHEVS: A survey from Pike
Research shows 22% of 1,041 consumers extremely
and 26% very interested in buying a 40-mile range
PHEV (like the Volt), with 17% willing to pay
20-50% more than a standard vehicle and half
willing to pay 5-10% more. Another 34% have some
interest for a total of 82%. Pike projects 1.7
million PHEVs on the world's roads by 2015 and
half a million annual sales.
http://www.pikeresearch.com/newsroom/48-of-consumers-interested-in-purchasing-a-\
plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicle
and
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/09/pike-phev40-20090908.html
. This survey is also re-labeled "Electric
Vehicle Consumer Survey" by Report Buyer, a
British online business intelligence source
http://www.reportbuyer.com/automotive/cars/hybrid_electric_vehicles/electric_veh\
icle_consumer_survey.html
MARKET PENETRATION STUDY CONFIRMS NEED FOR
CONVERSIONS: a University of Michigan
Transportation Research Institute study shows
potential annual PHEV sales of 4-5% by 2020, with
fleet penetration of 2%, and sales of 20% with
fleet penetration of 16% by 2030, are possible
only if current incentives remain in place, and
additional subsidies are added
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/63507
and
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/08/umtri-20090807.html
. This confirms CalCars' projections that show
that if we are to have any significant reduction
in petroleum dependency or greenhouse gases in
the next two decades, new plug-in vehicles will
need to be supplemented by conversion of large internal combustion vehicles.
GAS GUZZLER CONVERSIONS: Autoblog Green surveys
some of the options at
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/08/27/greenlings-can-i-convert-an-older-vehicle-t\
o-something-more-env/2#c21319701
. Bright Automotive tells more about its plans
for truck conversions in an Analysis by Jim
Motavalli and short video at
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/10002341/brights-big-plug-in-hybrid-production-pla\
ns-conversions-too/
COLORADO'S LARGE $6,000 PHEV CONVERSIONS CREDIT
(in addition to a federal 10% credit up to $4,000
for qualifying vehicles) is explored by Gas2.0
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/09/pike-phev40-20090908.html
CALCARS TESTIMONY ON GAS-GUZZLER CONVERSIONS: On
September 9, Technology Lead Ron Gremban was
invited to make a presentation at the opening
session of the California Energy Commission's
first Staff Workshop on the 2011-2012 Alternative
Fuels Investment Plan (Electric Drive Vehicles)
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009-ALT-1/documents/
for its AB118 program ($120/million/year). See
links to the 16-slide presentation "Accelerating
Vehicle Electrification" and download the
20-minute audio at http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html .
PLUG-IN CHARGING STATIONS IN NEW YORK CITY
APARTMENTS: You know you've made progress when
building management company executives are quoted
in the NYTimes Sunday Real Estate section saying
they want to be ready for the coming wave of
customer demand to charge in their high-rise
apartments: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/30/realestate/30posting.html
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY SUPPORTS "RETROFIT
BUILD-UP:" DOE has announced a $450 million
program for community-scale energy savings
programs focused on buildings. The program is
described, with links, at
http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/progress_alerts.cfm/pa_id=237
. Might the Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Block Grant (EECBG) Program be a model for making
gas-gulping vehicles into gas-sippers?
MEDIA
VOLT PREVIEW: CONSUMER'S PERSPECTIVE: The Chevy
comes out looking very good in U.S. News & World
Report's analysis
http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2009/08/21/how-your-car-compares-to-\
the-chevy-volt.html
GOOGLE'S NEW WAY OF FOLLOWING THE NEWS: Check out
FastFlip by applying it to PHEVs:
http://fastflip.googlelabs.com/search?q=plug-in+hybrid
NEW "FUEL" MOVIE PROMOTES BIOFUELED PHEVS: The
new movie "Fuel" has opened around the
country…see
http://www.thefuelfilm.com/theaters.php . The
launch
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-tickell/the-veggie-van-tour-rolls_b_289211.ht\
ml
included a cross-country trip with some biofuel
vehicles, including the "Algaeus" from Sapphire
Energy
http://www.sapphireenergy.com/pdfs/Algaeus.pdf --
a Prius PHEV converted "working closely with
engineers at Toyota" powered with o engine
modifications from fuel derived from algae. We
haven't seen the film yet; here's how it's
described: Winner of the Best Documentary award
at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival, FUEL is an
amazing, in-depth, personal journey of oil use
and abuse as it examines wide-ranging energy
solutions other than oil, the faltering US auto
and petroleum industries, and the latest
stirrings of the American mindset toward
alternative energy….FUEL presents the solution.
That's why it's also been called 'the most
hopeful movie of the year."'This is an important
movie, not because it sets out to scare you; but
because it inspires audiences to action."
FORTUNE MAGAZINE SAYS ZIPCAR IS "THE BEST NEW
IDEA IN BUSINESS" in a September cover story
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/26/news/companies/zipcar_car_rentals.fortune/
. We welcome this confirmation of one of the most
effective ways to optimize the use of vehicles.
And we were happy to see a mention on the second
page of the print story that Toyota and Ford have
already begun exploring ways to work with Zipcar,
from using its members to test electric cars to
designing vehicles specifically for the sharing
market." The story quotes Bill Ford saying
"Zipcar is the perfect application for electric
vehicles and plug-in hybrids because you leave
them at a certain location to be charged and then
take them out again," and says, in a survey, 80% of members want plug-ins.
EXAMINER ONLINE RESOURCE: San Francisco's
Examiner newspaper, once a mighty Hearst
publication, is now a free daily. Its online
department has launched "Electric Examiner" and
it's ably tracking plug-in news:
http://www.examiner.com/x-7226-Electric-Car-Examiner
CUTE ELECTRIC CAR VIDEO: Watch it at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAv6M1Bai0c at and
read the lyrics by They Might Be Giants at
http://www.popular-lyrics.com/lyrics/they-might-be-giants/electric-car-20867.htm\
l
NEW RESOURCE: CARS21.COM: Cars21
http://www.cars21.com/about.php , a new British
website that is working to bring together
industry players, has a useful news feed and has
added a writeup and links to us at
http://www.cars21.com/content/articles/2009-09-11-california-cars-initiative-joi\
ns-cars21com.php
JOE ROMM'S BLOG TURNS THREE: Our favorite source
on global warming, analyzing trends, tracking
media shortcomings and debunking disinformation
response to science and policy issues, is three
years old. Joseph Romm former DOE official, takes
the occasion to step back and explain why he does
what he does and why George Orwell has been so
important to him
http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/27/climate-progress-at-three-years-why-i-blog\
-george-orwell/
. From back in July, read why advocates need to
match deniers and opponents in advocating for
their views and letting Congress know how
important action is.
http://climateprogress.org/2009/07/16/memo-to-enviromentalists-progressives-the-\
deniers-and-polluters-climate-bill-phone-calls/
and his reprinting of a message from the recently
ousted Van Jones
http://climateprogress.org/2009/09/17/a-message-from-van-jone/ .
WALL STREET JOURNAL'S "US BIOFUEL BOOM RUNNING ON
EMPTY" is a comprehensive survey of the status of
the industry http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125133578177462487.html
AGAIN MAKING THE CASE FOR A GAS TAX: Thomas
Friedman has made another impassioned argument
for a gas or carbon tax,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/opinion/20friedman.html
. Taxing gasoline/diesel would raise $140
billion/year (he would rebate 10% of that to
low-income drivers, allocate 45% to pay down the
debt and 45% to health care). He concludes his
column, "Real Men Tax Gas:" "There is something
wrong when our country is willing to consider
spending more lives and treasure in Afghanistan,
where winning is highly uncertain, but can't even
talk about a gasoline tax, which is win, win,
win, win, win -- with no uncertainty at all. So,
I ask yet again: Who are the real cheese-eating
surrender monkeys in this picture?" Maybe there's
hope: the same day the column ran, he played 18
holes of golf with Pres. Obama and Transportation Secretary LaHood
EVENTS
ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE SYMPOSIUM OCT 1-3 IN SAN
FRANCISCO: Project Get Ready was started out of
RMI's Smart Garage program; RMI's annual
Symposium http://www.rmi2009.org/ includes a
session on the "Smart Garage"
http://www.rmi2009.org/?page_id=33 about vehicle
electrification featuring RMI's Matt Mattila and
Laura Schewel, A123's David Vieau, plug-in
advocate Chelsea Sexton, Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission chair Jon Wellinghoff,
moderated by Michael Brylawski from Bright
Automotive (and formerly from RMI and Hypercar).
See
http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/24/energy-effeciency-biofuels-business-energy-lovi\
ns.html
for a recent article by RMI Founder Amory Lovins
aimed at Forbes Magazine's business audience.
FIRST MAJOR PLUG-IN CONFERENCE Oct 19-21 IN
DETROIT: The Business of Plugging In
ttp://www.pev2009.com/program has been organized
by the influential Center for Automotive Research
with support from the Michigan Public Service
Commission and sponsorship by GM and DTE Energy.
A strong list of presenters and topics, with
possible last-minute additions. We'll present at
a panel, "The Consumer: Who, When and Why?"
talking about the campaign that brought us this far and what comes next.
THANKS AND CONGRATULATIONS TO THOSE OF YOU WHO
GOT THIS FAR. Here's one way we can know how many
read all the way through. In the spirit of NPRG
pledge drives: if you benefit from reading this
please don't imagine someone else will support
CalCars. It's up to you! Why not send a
tax-deductible contribution at
http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html . Thanks in advance!
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Here's information on an event tomorrow morning, conferences next
week in MIchigan and Washington State, and reports/links to our
presentation at a recent event. Find links here and at
http://www.calcars.org/events.html .
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
"ASK GM AND CALCARS" ON A WEBCHAT: Pose your questions to Tony
Posawatz, Chevy Volt Vehicle Line Director and co-chair of the
Electric Drive Transportation Association, along with Felix Kramer,
CalCars Founder, for an hour starting Friday, October 16 at 12:30
Eastern, 9:30 Pacific time. In an encouraging sign of broad interest,
we expect you'll find it at http://www.AutoBlogGreencom,http://www.GreenCarCongress.com,http://www.EVWorld.com and other
plug-in related sites. You can also be sure it will be easily visible
at the top of the page at the GM Fastlane blog
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/ and the Volt Facebook page
http://www.facebook.com/chevroletvolt (where you can find links to
previous Webchats in this series), (While you're at it, check out the
VoltAge info/social networking site: http://chevroletvoltage.com/.)
This event is a lead-in to the Detroit Business of Plugging In
conference next week (more on that below). If you're a journalist or
blogger who wants to "embed" a link to the event on your site so your
audience can participate, write us and we'll put you in touch with
the event organizers.
FIRST MAJOR CONFERENCE IN MOTOR CITY ON PLUG-IN VEHICLES: The
Business of Plugging In http://www.pev2009.com , October 19-21 in
Detroit, is organized by the influential Center for Automotive
Research http://www.cargroup.org , with support from the Michigan
Public Service Commission and sponsorship by GM and DTE Energy. The
event includes a GM Public Day October 21, a ride-and-drive, a
venture capital workshop. The speaker lineup includes Michigan Gov.
Jennifer Granholm, former NY Gov. George Pataki, former NATO Supreme
Commander Gen. Wesley Clark, the Department of Energy's Matt Rogers,
Bill Ford and many auto industry leaders. At "The Consumer: Who, When
and Why?" session on market penetration and consumer expectation
issues, panelists are Think's Richard Canny, CalCars' Felix Kramer,
GM's Tony Posawatz, US Environmental Protection Agency's Karl Simon,
and Specialty Equipment Market Association's John Waraniak. The
conference is sold out, though there is a waiting list.
BEYOND OIL IN WASHINGTON STATE: The sixth annual Cascadia Project
TransTech Conference
http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/index.php?command=view&id=991&program=Ca\
scadia&isEvent=true
, October 23-24 at Microsoft's Redmond campus, will include a strong
focus on plug-in vehicles. Invited speakers include Gov. Chris
Gregoire, U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, Reps. Jay Inslee and Norm Dicks,
US Commerce Sec. Gary Locke, Microsoft's Rob Bernard. See <agenda
http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/filesDB-download.php?command=download&id\
=5751>.
You can still <register
http://www.cascadiaproject.org/events/2009.10.23/eventForm-payflow.php>.
REPORT TO COME ON ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE EVENT: RMI's first West
Coast Symposium, October 1-3, 2009 in San Francisco, <"Reinventing
Fire http://www.rmi2009.org"> (referring to RMI's roadmap for
eliminating the use of fossil fuels) included a well-received
luncheon plenary featuring RMI's National Solutions Council project
of the year: The Smart Garage's Project Get Ready
http://www.projectgetready.org to prepare communities to get ready
for plug-in vehicles. We hope to post some notes from a great event.
VIEW/HEAR OR READ TRANSCRIPT OF PRESENTATION ON GAS-GUZZLER
CONVERSIONS: On September 28-30, 2009: Felix Kramer presented at PHEV
'09 http://www.emc-mec.ca/phev/en/home_en.html , the second Canadian
conference on "Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicles/Vehicules
electriques et hybrides rechargables." Canada shows signs of
evolving at an even faster rate than the U.S. toward plug-in
vehicles. See http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions for links to the
23-slide PDF of "Beyond New Plug-Ins: Fixing Gas Guzzlers" and to
download mp3 audio and/or a transcript.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Due to a mixup we announced that the chat today (described below) would be at
12:30 Eastern, 9:30 Pacific -- but it's 3:30 Eastern 12:30 Pacific. Below is the
corrected paragraph and a larger list of where it can be found.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)
"ASK GM AND CALCARS" ON A WEBCHAT: Pose your questions to Tony Posawatz, Chevy
Volt Vehicle Line Director and co-chair of the Electric Drive Transportation
Association, along with Felix Kramer, CalCars Founder, for an hour starting
Friday, October 16 at 13:30 Eastern, 12:30 Pacific time.
You can also be sure it will be easily visible at the top of the page at the GM
Fastlane blog
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/ and the Volt Facebook page
http://www.facebook.com/chevroletvolt (where you can find links to previous
Webchats in this series), (While you're at it, check out the VoltAge info/social
networking site: http://chevroletvoltage.com/.)
In an encouraging sign of broad interest, we expect you'll find it at
http://www.AutoBlogGreencomhttp://www.EVWorld.comhttp://www.gm-volt.comhttp://www.GreenCarCongress.com
and other plug-in related sites.
This event is a lead-in to the Detroit Business of Plugging In conference next
week.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
First of three catch-up postings: CalCars'
one-page presentation of the case for gas-guzzler
conversions and a request for endorsements; a
supportive analysis of the retrofit opportunity;
first orders for conversions from REV and Bright;
SEMA and the aftermarket industry on retrofits;
the little-recognized opportunity to reduce
"black carbon" and address climate change; hybrid conversions get cheaper.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
CALCARS ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN DOCUMENT: Following
two trips to Washington and discussions with
potential supporters at several conferences,
we've produced a working copy of a one-page
explanation of the gas-guzzler campaign, followed
by an endorsement form. We're now seeking public
supporters: we will shortly announce the first
signers and endorsers. See the document at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-bigfix-endorse.pdf
-- and here's what we'd like you (if you're a
high-profile individual or active advocate or
your company/organization) to endorse:
"We agree that in large volume, converting
internal combustion vehicles to safe, affordable,
validated and warranted plug-ins can provide
benefits in energy security, greenhouse gas
reduction, employment, and the overall economy.
We support research and demonstration projects
aimed at proving the technical feasibility and
business case for this solution. We support the
creation of local, national, and international
coalitions, campaigns and other efforts to
incentivize and achieve these goals."
MATTER NETWORK WEIGHS IN ON GAS-GUZZLER
CONVERSIONS: MN's editor-in-chief John Gartner,
who is also an analyst for Pike Research, says
CalCars is "clearly onto something" in raising
this goal. He continues, "But the harder sell
will be convincing the auto industry that keeping
vehicles on the road instead of buying new
vehicles is a good thing, and that they should be
a part of that business. Upgrading existing SPVs
[SUVs, pickups and vans] could be a multi-billion
dollar business, extending the life of vehicles
and preserving the energy cost sunk into building
them. While Ford, GM and Chrysler are best-suited
to engineer conversions, this mass rethinking of
the company would be an even bigger shift than
the current change to becoming manufacturers of
PHEVs and EVs."
http://featured.matternetwork.com/2009/9/why-stop-at-converting-hybrids.cfm
RAPID ELECTRIC VEHICLES: FIRST SALE AND RALLYING
CALL. Vancouver-based REV has announced that the
City of Inglewood, CA will be its conversion
partner for city fleet vehicles
http://www.auto-mobi.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8183&Itemid=\
50
. And REV made its first sale to the city of
Santa Monica
http://www.pr-inside.com/rev-names-city-of-santa-monica-r1530487.htm
. REV describes the capabilities of its retrofit
Ford Escape: "The REV 300 ACX travels 100 miles
on a single charge while maintaining the
performance capabilities of the original vehicle.
The REV electric fleet vehicle is efficient with
regenerative braking, eGear drive transmission,
and less than 10 moving parts. The vehicles are
safe with built-in inertia switches, a manual
safety disconnect, 4-wheel ABS brakes, and full
system airbags. They are also reliable with
1/10th the maintenance, Vehicle to Grid ready,
recharge in as little as 3.5 hours, and have
built-in fleet information systems." Meanwhile,
REV's Founder and President has written an
energetic guest contribution at gas2.0.org called
"Transforming Gas Guzzling Fleets: The Time is
Now,"
http://gas2.org/2009/10/09/transforming-gas-guzzling-fleets-the-time-is-now/
BRIGHT AUTOMOTIVE GETS ORDER FOR PROTOTYPE
TRANSPORTER CONVERSION. We've written about this
Rocky Mountain Institute spinoff and its plans to
do a retrofit while it develops its
fully-optimized lightweight delivery vehicle. Now
we see that the U.S. Dept. of Defense will order
the first conversion,
http://www.cleanfleetreport.com/plug-in-hybrids/delivery-vans-plug-in/
, This is good news; unlike the US Postal
Service, the military has funds for such
programs; it's now focusing on reducing petroleum
use -- and military bases teem with people- and cargo-movers of all sizes.
SEMA: IMPORTANT FACTOR IN RETROFITS CAMPAIGN:
Next week at the Detroit conference, "The
Business of Plugging In" (see
http://www.calcars.org/events.html ) we'll be on
a panel with John Waraniak, Vice President of
Vehicle Technology. We've been spending some time
looking at the Specialty Equipment Market
Association; few recognize its potential role in
helping to develop and promote a gas-guzzler
conversion industry. SEMA, founded in 1983, has
7,358 member companies and represents a $38B
industry. Many of our readers may know SEMA
because of its role in clarifying how the
Magnuson-Moss Act provides that modifications to
a vehicle potentially affect the warranty only
for the affected components, not of the whole
vehicle, and the burden of proof is not on the
car owner. (Looking at SEMA pages like
http://www.semasan.com/main/main.aspx?id=60128
provided critical reassurance for drivers and for
dealers in the early days of Prius conversions.)
SEMA's new broad approach is seen in Waraniak's
interview, "Don't Waste This Crisis" (no longer
public at SEMA but viewable at
http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:z6sWdQaa-e0J:www.sema.org/sema-news/2009/04\
/don%92t-waste-crisis
). At the annual SEMA Show in Las Vegas November
3-6, Waraniak will moderate three "Vehicle
Technology Briefing SuperSessions" -- Driving
Green, Driving Connected, and Driving Safe (and a
related theme, Driving Cool)
http://www.semashow.com/main/main.aspx?id=70137#Technology-Briefing-SuperSession\
s
. All four goals tie directly in to the
opportunities we're now highlighting. We hope to
bring you more information in the near future.
BLACK CARBON: NEW INCENTIVE FOR CONVERSIONS: The
buzz is building about a long-overlooked
contributor to climate change -- "black carbon"
contributes about 18% of the earth's warming,
second in impact only to CO2's 40%. Black carbon
is soot -- particulate emissions mostly from
diesel engines, coal plants and simple cook
stoves used around the world. It travels
thousands of miles and then settles on snow or
the ground, increasing heat absorption. It's
called a "low-hanging fruit" for addressing
climate change because its effects last only for
weeks or months, so reducing it can have an
immediate impact at relatively low cost. What's
the connection to our "Big Fix" campaign? The
auto dealer or the independent installer who goes
into business to focus on EV and PHEV conversions
can also install relatively low-cost particulate
filters on all diesel vehicles (along with
low-cost add-ons like real-time MPG indicators).
For more see "The Other Climate Changers : Why
Black Carbon and Ozone Also Matter," by
scientists Jessica Seddon Wallack and
Veerabhadran Ramanathan in the influential
magazine, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2009
(buy article at
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65238/jessica-seddon-wallack-and-veerabha\
dran-ramanathan/the-other-climate-changers
) as well as discussion of the problem and
Congressional proposals at
http://greenthoughts.us/2009/05/01/libertyandclimate1/http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/08/black-carbon-20090821.htmlhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/senate-foes-agree-on-dangerous-poll\
utant/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/science/earth/16degrees.html .
LOWER COST HYBRID CONVERSIONS 3Prong Power in
Berkeley is selling hybrid conversions at new
lower prices. Using the battery pack from
Enginer, the company we described in our Sept. 1
post, , the system costs $3,500-$4,500 depending
on battery size, and versions are available for
all Priuses starting with 2001 model year as well
as Ford Escape Hybrids. We've added information
(and generally updated our popular "How to Get a
PHEV" page http://www.calcarsorg/howtoget.html .
GREEN CAR CONGRESS STARTS SECTION ON CONVERSIONS:
the always-useful site pulls out some of its
stories focusing on retrofits at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/conversions/ (in
addition to its section on plug-ins at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/plugins/ ).
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Second of three catch-up postings. Analysis of
Toyota's long-awaited announcement of sales of
PHEVs (in 2012); new concept PHEVs from Suzuki,
Mitsubishi; Volvo's European PHEV plans; Ford's
Gioia gets promotion; Duke and FPL utilities
commit to switch their entire fleet; utilities
vs. carmakers on tax credits; results of
A123Systems IPO; Detroit area and plug-ins (on
the eve of the first Detroit conference on plug-ins).
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
TOYOTA SETS A DATE FOR SELLING PHEVS: We'll see
Toyota PHEVs in 2012 (with 20-30,000 in the first
year, according to some reports). That welcome
news remains underwhelming: it's a long wait for
consumers, and analysts expect it to be very
pricey (especially given its likely relatively
moderate electric range). For Toyota's
perspective, see testimony by Michael O’Brien, US
corporate manager for advanced technology vehicle
planning, at the California Air Resources Board's
Zero Emissions Vehicle Technology Symposium in
September -- he described why the company is
going slowly because of the concerns about
battery limitations and uncertain customer
demand. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/09/obrien-20090923.html
In a dialogue distributed by Climatewire
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/10/16/16climatewire-toyota-seeks-a-short-range\
-plug-in-hybrid-fo-14547.html
we read: "It's not a bad strategy, according to
[PHEV inventor] Andrew Frank… 'for the amount of
lithium available today, you can build three
times more Priuses that are plug compatible than
Chevy Volts, since the battery packs are
one-third the size. And you make money by selling
cars and not batteries!!'.... 'From an
environmental perspective, the more [electric]
range the better,' said Roland Hwang,
transportation program director at the Natural
Resources Defense Council, in an e-mail. He said
Toyota's strategy on plug-ins 'seems at first
oddly conservative,' and that the company risks
'being seen as a technology and environmental
laggard, and losing their current perceived pole
position on environmentally friendly cars.'"
SUZUKI AND MITUBISHI INTRODUCE THEIR PHEV CONCEPT
CARS: We're encouraged to see two new players
with series PHEVs coming to the Tokyo Auto Show:
Suzuki with the Swift concept crossover and
Mitsubishi with the PX-MIeV four-wheel drive
vehicle. We commented at earth2tech: "We expect
more concept cars will turn into
production-intent vehicles and deadlines will
advance as competition and market opportunities
increase."
http://earth2tech.com/2009/10/14/preview-green-cars-to-watch-at-the-tokyo-motor-\
show/
VOLVO'S SERIES PHEV FOR EUROPE IN 2012: At the
Frankfurt Auto Show, Volvo announced plans to
introduce a 30-mile-electric range diesel PHEV in Europe in 2012.
NOW WHAT HAPPENS TO CHRYSLER? The Detroit Free
Press reports: "While Fiat is better known for
its diesel engines than hybrids, Chrysler's new
partner is developing a lithium-ion hybrid system
that could be coupled with a new 900-cc,
two-cylinder engine, according to Quattrouote, an
Italian automotive magazine. That system could be
offered in the 500 minicar that Chrysler is
expected to put on sale in the United States
sometime in 2011. Fiat also is designing the
system so it can have plug-in capability ….
Chrysler is making progress on its own, too. The
U.S. government is granting more than $300
million to Chrysler and its battery partner, A123
Systems, to produce a fleet of 100 plug-in hybrid
Dodge Ram pickups and 100 Chrysler Town & Country
minivans. In May, Chrysler and A123 pledged to
deliver 165 Town & Country battery-powered
minivans to the U.S. Postal
Service. http://m.freep.com/news.jsp?key=513838&rc=bz
FORD ADVANCES ELECTRIC STRATEGY: Ford has
announced it expects to build two million plug-in
vehicles in the next 10 years, making its fleet
10-25% "electrified." (We can't tell if this
includes conventional hybrids; Ford's first PHEV
is planned for 2012.) The announcement came along
with the promotion of Nancy Gioia (formerly
director of sustainable mobility technology and
hybrid vehicle programs for North America) to a
new position, Director of Global
Electrification. http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10375326-54.html
TWO UTILITIES GO ALL-IN FOR PLUG-INS: FPL Group
(which includes Florida Power and Light) and Duke
Energy will replace all 10,,000 of their
vehicles with plug-ins starting next year,
getting to all plug-in by 2020 at a cost of
$600M. "We really feel it is time for our
industry to put our money where our mouth is,"
said Christopher Bennett, FPL's executive vice
president and chief strategy, policy and business
process improvement officer. "We are ready to
start purchasing when we see vehicles that are
available and fit our needs."
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090924-705557.html
. FPL will move into large vehicles including
bucket trucks, and will include conversions in its mix.
CARMAKERS VS. UTILITIES: WHO GETS LOW-CARBON
CREDITS: This is the first round of a what may be
an extensive scramble: for the credits provided
in state (and eventually federal) laws promoting
low-carbon fuels, who gets the credit? See
discussion at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aRintGBhdP7Q
A123SYSTEMS IPO: The IPO, originally expected to
price under $10/share, went off at $13.50 on
Sept.30 and jumped 50% as it began trading. Since
then, AONE stock has ranged between $20 and $26,
and is now around 23, giving the company a market
capitalization (value) of $2.3B. By business
standards, the initial public offering was a
success, and it has resulted in far more
attention to the investment opportunities in plug-in cars and components.
DETROIT AREA'S ROLE OF PLUG-IN REVOLUTION: A good
roundup of the companies and organizations
working to revive the epicenter of the US auto
industry.
http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/10/12/can-detroit-go-green/
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
We just spoke at the first large-scale conference in Detroit on
plug-in cars, "The Business of Plugging In." Speakers at this
high-level event, organized by the auto industry's leading
research/analysis/conference group, the Center for Automotive
Research, with founding sponsors DTE Energy, the University of
Michigan and GM, included Michigan's Governor Jennifer Granholm and
William Ford, Jr. We decided this was as good a time as any to make a
long-awaited statement. While cautioning that "We still face a lot of
steps between here and successful commercialization," we said, for
the first time, we were "taking this occasion to DECLARE VICTORY --
plug-in hybrids are coming!" Following that we outlined our view of
the road ahead, including introducing the most challenging audience
to our Gas-Guzzler Conversions campaign. You can see what we said
below. We follow that with excerpts from a story about why fun is a
key ingredient to successful commercialization. And we wind up with
the first major national media report on our new conversions campaign.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
WE'VE TAKEN THIS OCCASION TO UPDATE OUR PAGE
http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html -- renamed "Join the
Campaign to Electrify World's 900+ Million Vehicles (as many as
possible, to plug-in hybrid or all-electric)." That page has links to
11 small companies and projects that are the early entrants in what
we believe will be a booming global opportunity. We also point from
there to our one-page campaign description and endorsement form, plus
links to our presentations, flyers and White Paper.
THIS CONFERENCE FEELS DIFFERENT: Over and over, that's what we heard
Detroit attendees say. Pressed to explain, most said they felt it was
appropriately named "The Business of Plugging In:" everyone
understood the benefits and wanted to find the most effective ways to
advance the technology and the companies and organizations across the
industry, the nation and globally.
Happily all-business now comes with a twist, best captured in "Fun
could be the key to selling plug-in hybrid autos," an article by
automotive reporter Sharon Silke Carty ,
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/environment/2009-10-21-plug-ins-cars-confere\
nce_N.htm
. Here are excerpts quoting two speakers from our session plus a keynoter:
At a three-day conference on the future of plug-in hybrids, one
lingering question kept coming up: Who's going to buy these things?
The answer, according to outsiders and industry leaders here: no one,
if they're not fun to drive. Fun to play with. And fun to look at.
Naturally, people want safe and reliable cars, but, they said, the
key to wide public acceptance of more expensive plug-in and electric
cars is making them fun. "We're asking, 'Can you give us the next big
thing? Can you make a profit? And can you make it fun?' " said Wesley
Clark, former presidential candidate and keynote speaker at the
Business of Plugging In conference. "If you can do that, it's a whole
new age for Detroit and a whole new age for America."
Tony Posawatz, vehicle line director for General Motors' Chevrolet
Volt, said GM is working to educate consumers. "Our job is to make
this something they fall in love with, so they're not talking about
the (higher sticker price than a similar gas-engine car). They're
talking about how they want the car," Posawatz said. John Waraniak,
vice president of vehicle technology for the Specialty Equipment
Market Association, said every electric and plug-in hybrid will need
to wow buyers. "That cool factor is critical to acceptance of green
vehicles," he said.
TRANSCRIPT OF FELIX KRAMER'S 9-MINUTE REMARKS at breakout session,
"The Consumer: Who, When and Why?" (agenda at
http://www.pev2009.com/program/index.asp#w_bs1_3 ).
Introduction
By session moderator Brett Smith, director of the Automotive Analysis
Group, at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Ann Arbor
Michigan, organizer of The Business of Plugging In 2009 Conference.
Our next speaker is Felix Kramer. I had the chance to meet Felix
actually several years ago very briefly and then last November out in
California at a meeting of the Volt people and several folks from the
community in California who are very passionate about this subject.
At the end of the day, Felix gave up and gave what Iand [GM's] Rob
Peterson -- I don't think Rob is in the room -- and I agreed, was the
most amazing speech we had ever heard. This was right at the stage, I
think it was the day that the Big Three chief executives were on
Capitol Hill, and the mood was so bad, you remember. Felix got up, a
real California guy, being someone who's been passionate about the
environment for a long time, got up and gave a speech that was just
stunningly thoughtful on why we need our automotive industry to
succeed to get to this point. And Rob and I looked at each other and
said, "Yeah, he gets the PEV part but he also gets the importance of
the industry as a whole." Our next speaker is Felix Kramer from
CalCars Initiative.
[Felix Kramer]
So I want to talk about what we've learned from conversions, and what
they tell us about future consumer demand. Seven years ago, I started
CalCars.org to put plug-in hybrids on the map. From 2002 to 2005, all
we heard was "Nobody's interested, nobody wants to plug in -- there's
no business case, there's no benefit, and the carmakers will never go for it."
Andy Frank, meanwhile, did the first retrofits, mostly on big GM
vehicles, and almost five years ago we brought the first Prius
conversion to Detroit to show to an automotive reporter. On the way
back we stopped at the Center for Automotive Research to show them a
plug-in hybrid.
After us, hundreds of Prius conversions and Ford Escape conversions
gave a glimpse of the future to a lot of important, critical people
-- some journalists, think-tank people, C-level executives, elected officials.
And those vehicles enabled us to communicate three powerful slogans
that became kind of memes: "100+ miles per gallon" (with a footnote
"plus a penny or two a mile of electricity"); "Good enough to get
started" with the technologies we have now -- good enough to get
started; and "Cleaner, Cheaper, Domestic" as a way of describing the
benefits of electricity compared to gasoline.
And then they also enabled us to show this [a short "dongle" cord,
with a regular 110 electrical plug on one end and a plug for the
vehicle on the other] and get a laugh from people, saying "every
alternative fuel source needs a new infrastructure and new
technology; this connects us to today's infrastructure." And that was
a really very powerful message.
So, with the help of a broad coalition that began to form, most of
those objections fell away in 2006 to 2008.
We still face a lot of steps between here and successful
commercialization. But today, for the first time, I'm taking this
occasion to DECLARE VICTORY -- plug-in hybrids are coming! And we
actually haven't had a chance -- you know, we've been working so hard
all the time -- to actually say, "Look what we've done! We've made
this happen. We've made this amazing change."
[Gas-Guzzler Conversions]
Now before I go on to talk about the market, I want to talk about a
major new development, which I think will become part of the "What
comes next?" story.
Having achieved our primary goals, we started to look at how long it
takes new vehicles to penetrate into the market. It took hybrids 10
years to become 1% of the fleet and 2% of new cars. If you take that
and you multiply [it] by a highly optimistic 10x factor, 15 years
from now, we will still have a dribble of new plug-in vehicles in the
market compared to 250 million vehicles in the United States and 900
million in the world.
That means that during those 10 to 15 years, we won't get the
petroleum-reduction benefits we need. So, that leads us to a new
goal: we're pointing to a global business opportunity to fix the
vehicles that are on the road today.
Intel's former CEO Andy Grove likes to talk about big gas-guzzlers,
PSVs -- Pickups, SUVs and Vans -- as the market (and I'd add
municipal and school buses and some other vehicles to that), and he's
a big fan of this strategy, although there's a lot of skepticism
about it. We think it's possible to retrofit to safe, drivable,
validated EVs or PHEVs, depending on the drive cycle and the
technology and construction of the vehicle, millions of vehicles.
So, we're launching a new campaign that's spotlighting a few
prototypes from small startups. We're collecting endorsements and
getting a lot of partners on board about this. We want this effort to
happen in two years instead of seven years. I'm happy to talk about
it, give you a flyer, and all the info about it is at CalCars.org.
[Expectations & Our Challenge]
So back to the questions that we want to talk about here. 2010 is our
real major unexplored frontier and our most critical year. The
vehicles are coming this time -- not prototypes, not conversions, but
real production cars. And they're going to come into a kind of
twilight zone, at an unusual intersection.
On the one hand, you've got the public -- with its understanding, its
conceptions and its misconceptions, its expectations and its hopes
that somehow there's going to some sort of solution that's going to
get us out of this problem, this situation. And they'll bring all of
those expectations to their encounters with multiple flavors of
vehicles -- from small manufacturers and from large companies.
So, they're going to start to see what plug-ins can deliver and
there's going to be some mismatch in their thinking. And we hope that
they'll recalibrate their expectations in healthy and enthusiastic
ways. But that's not guaranteed.
Automakers and the broad community can take a lot of steps to
influence this unpredictable journey. The actions and communication
strategies that we choose can significantly improve the chances of
successful commercialization.
[Predictions]
So my predictions: I think the first vehicles will be gobbled up by
early adopters. I think for a long time, carmakers will sell as many
as they can build. I think the early buyers are going to self-select,
based on the drive cycles and access to home or business charging.
If 50% of the population has access to a plug right now, that's not a
niche -- that's a huge market and we don't have to worry for a long
time about where people are going to plug in. Plenty of people can
start by plugging in.
And millions of people are going to pay for features, just like they
do for every kind of car. They'll pay for the green feature, the
smart feature, the cool feature, the advanced-technology feature, the
prestige feature. And all of those features get communicated by
positioning, by design and by advertizing.
So how many people are we talking about? Let's take one example:
there's an acronym LOHAS, the LOHAS community -- Lifestyles of Health
and Sustainability. It's a marketing category and people estimate
that over 50 million people in America, 25% of adults, are willing to
pay more for products where they will get the features that appeal to
the LOHAS mentality. That again is not a niche.
Now one caveat to all the predictions that we've been reading about:
they are all based on "BAU" -- Business As Usual. Business As Usual
-- I don't think is likely in the next couple of years. It could come
from bad news: higher oil prices, international crises, supply
disruptions. We could move at any point to a post-Pearl Harbor
situation where we say we've got to retool the whole country because
we don't have guaranteed access to oil any more.
It could also come from positive steps, like carbon credits and
additional incentives on local levels.
[Redefining the Customers' Role]
So now, I'm really encouraged that the carmakers see as their allies
and -- this is in contrast, in some cases, in the past -- not only
the utilities, but plug-in advocates, communities, and regional
efforts like project Get Ready -- and I highly recommend that you
look at http://www.projectgetready.org .
So it's now possible for carmakers, the media and advocates to use
new communications tools to give voices to the future drivers who are
going to be the first owners of plug-in cars. These customers and
future customers can describe now what they hope for, and when they
start getting them, they can say what they like and what they'd like
in version 2, because we're talking about automotive software now, to
a great extent, and hardware, but a lot of it is -- version 2 can go
right into their car, some day in the future.
So, let's think of all of those customers as a giant fan club and as
a focus group.
For the roll-out in the next year, I think the guiding principle for
all of us should be the ones that GM embraced when it announced the
Volt: transparency and two-way communications at every stage.
This year, just like those demonstrators' cars, those conversions for
all of those years, the cars are going to do us a big favor and give
us the biggest boost yet. They give us the chance to personalize the
experience and for people to communicate their own personal
experiences. We can enlist every new driver as an advocate -- at
least for their families, their friends and their neighbors and coworkers.
But I expect, actually, many of them will jump in an become amateur
evangelists to audiences who want to hear all about this. And I can't
wait! Thank you.
COMING SOON: OUR ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE FIRST ENDORSERS OF THE CAMPAIGN.
Please review http://www.calcars.org/calcars-bigfix-endorse.pdf ,
then send us your company/organzation's endorsement or your personal
endorsement if you're a high-profile individual or active advocate.
THE FIRST NATIONAL MEDIA STORY ON OUR GAS-GUZZLER CAMPAIGN. A little
background: CalCars completed its first Prius conversion in fall
2004. That news didn't reach major public awareness until Spring
2005, with major profiles and features in the NY Times, Business
Week, Newsweek, etcv (That story is told in Sherry Boschert's book on
PHEVs -- see http://www.calcars.org/books.html -- and you can find
the news clips at "CalCars in the News 2004-2005"
http://www.calcars.org/kudos.html . But in late January, well before
that, Mark Clayton at the Christian Science Monitor wrote "Hybrids?
Some Opt to Go All-Electric," describing our project. Now Clayton
returns with the first national story on our new campaign -- and he
gets it all right! Here it is, filed at CSM under "Innovation."
"Electric SUVs: A smaller footprint for big vehicles: Converting
existing gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs into hybrid and electric
vehicles gains traction."
By Mark Clayton | Staff Writer for the Christian Science Monitor /
November 4, 2009
http://features.csmonitor.com/innovation/2009/11/04/electric-suvs-a-smaller-foot\
print-for-big-vehicles/
Tom Reid likes his ride big -- a 2000 Ford Explorer SUV with plenty
of interior room and all the amenities. None of those prissy little
hybrid vehicles will do for him.
But after gas hit $4 a gallon last year, Mr. Reid had a big fuel
bill, too -- and an epiphany: convert his gas guzzler to an
all-electric vehicle.
So he did. Now Reid's bright idea has become a sideline business for
his shop, HTC Racing, which produces specialized protective coating
for automotive and other metal parts in Whitman, Mass. He offers kits
to convert any 1995-2004 gas-sucking Ford Explorer into a
cheap-to-keep, no fuel, little maintenance all-electric SUV. Cost: $15,000.
He admits that the idea may be "ahead of its time." Reid has yet to
sell a single kit. With gas at only $2.50 a gallon, the conversion
cost is too much for even SUV-loving die-hards. But if gasoline
prices soar again, Reid says he'll be ready -- and he won't be alone either.
Converting America's vast existing fleet of gas-guzzling SUVs and
pickup trucks into electrified vehicles is an idea percolating among
policy wonks, start-up companies, and fleet owners such as FedEx and
the US Postal Service.
Despite all the hoopla over Detroit's move to make plug-in hybrid and
all-electric vehicles, there's a need for a speedier US shift away
from oil in order to enhance energy security and slow the buildup of
carbon in the atmosphere, says a small but growing chorus.
President Obama has set a goal of 1 million plug-in vehicles on the
road by 2015. But with 260 million cars, SUVs, and light trucks on
the road today, new electrified vehicles won't arrive in sufficient
volume to yield a significant benefit on reducing US carbon dioxide
emissions or oil consumption for at least 15 years, says Felix
Kramer, cofounder of the California Cars Initiative, an advocacy
group that promotes plug-in electric-gas hybrid vehicles.
What that means is that conversions will be needed -- and the best
place to start is with gas guzzlers, Mr. Kramer says .
They point out that even if all new cars sold in America were
electric by 2030, they would only represent a third of US vehicles.
"We're happy automakers are changing -- but new plug-in vehicles
sales can't do the job alone or anytime soon," he says. "It's clear
[new plug-ins] will initially be a drop in the bucket. So we have to
change over existing vehicles -- we need conversions."
A big part of the problem is vehicle longevity. It takes 15 to 17
years for a typical vehicle to go from showroom to junkyard crusher
-- and sometimes longer for SUVs, pickup trucks, and vans that have
sturdier frames.
In the scenario where 100 percent of new car sales are plug-in hybrid
vehicles by 2030, US oil consumption would fall by just 21 percent
and carbon emissions by 15 percent because of the millions of
remaining gasoline cars, estimates a California Cars Initiative white paper.
But with an active conversion program that included tax incentives,
the number of plug-in vehicles would roughly double to about
two-thirds of the fleet by 2030. That would produce a 36 percent cut
in oil use and a 25 percent chop in CO2 emissions.
The reason to focus on gas guzzlers rather than gas sippers is the
much bigger benefits from electrifying them. When Kramer of the
California Cars Initiative converted his Toyota Prius hybrid into a
plug-in hybrid with more electric power -- the car went from 50 miles
per gallon up to 100 m.p.g. But the United States could save far
more, he says, if it converted existing pickup trucks that get 15
m.p.g. to vehicles that can go 30 to 40 miles on a charge before
shifting to gas.
And that's the aim of Ali Emadi, president of fledgling Hybrid
Electric Vehicle Technologies, a Chicago spinoff of the Illinois
Institute of Technology. His young company has just converted its
first Ford F-150 pickup truck from a 16 m.p.g. gas hog into a plug-in
hybrid that gets up to 41 m.p.g. gasoline equivalent.
"Our technology could be applied to almost any vehicle from SUVs to
pickup trucks, buses, or even school buses," Dr. Emadi says. "The
important issue is that when you apply our technology to larger
vehicles -- trucks and buses -- the fuel economy savings and return
on investment are much more attractive."
Unlike Reid's all-electric approach, Emadi's company plans to add an
electric drive system to an existing internal combustion engine to
create in essence a retrofitted plug-in hybrid vehicle that runs
primarily on electricity. But once the battery is depleted after 15
miles or so, it can continue running on its internal combustion
engine while recapturing braking energy just like a standard hybrid.
Emadi is in talks with potential customers. Big commercial fleets of
pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans seem likely to be the first arena where
the economics line up and gas-guzzler conversions get the go-ahead.
FedEx, the big delivery company, began retrofitting some of its
trucks to standard hybrid models. But its president, Frederick Smith,
says that, in the long term, the company "would likely convert a
substantial portion of our fleet to the new plug-in hybrid technology."
Bright Automotive, an Anderson, Ind., startup, has its sights set on
building a new commercial 100 m.p.g. plug-in hybrid van it calls the
IDEA. But until it wins funding it is focusing on converting
Volkswagen's Transporter van from a 15 to 22 m.p.g. vehicle to a
plug-in hybrid workhorse that goes 22 miles on all-electric and 57
m.p.g. across its 50-mile daily drive cycle.
Earlier last month, Inglewood, Calif., announced it had tapped REV
Technologies, a company in Vancouver, British Columbia, to convert
its existing fleet of 21 Ford Escape SUVs into all-electric vehicles
that get 100 miles on a charge.
"When you just look at the sheer number of cars on the road, they're
not going away anytime soon," says Jay Giraud, president of REV.
"People are saying, 'I want to keep driving what I've got -- I just
want it to be electric.' "
Making a similar point in dramatic fashion, Raser Technologies in
Provo, Utah, unveiled a converted plug-in hybrid "extended range"
Hummer that gets 100 m.p.g., according to the company. Raser is
trying to sell its technology to a manufacturer and has no current
plans to convert existing vehicles, a spokesman says.
Which leaves Reid wondering when gas prices will rise high enough
that individual consumers begin converting their beloved SUVs, vans,
and pickup trucks. He also wonders why those fat federal tax credits
of $7,500 for new plug-in hybrids like the upcoming Chevy Volt don't
yet apply to converted all-electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids that
accomplish the same fuel savings and environmental benefits. Why not
a "cash for conversions?" Kramer adds.
"If the government would help with a reasonable tax credit, you'd get
all these entrepreneurs like me converting all kinds of vehicles for
maybe $10,000," Reid says. If gas rose to $4 or more a gallon, he
figures his SUV conversion to electric-vehicle kits would be selling
like hotcakes.
"The way I see it, Americans have a love affair with their SUVs," he
says. "None of my friends want anything to do with little cars -- no
matter how high [the price of] gas goes."
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
With COP-15 less than a month away -- for an unusual coalition's
response to the international "Conference of Parties" of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, check out
http://www.hopenhagen.org -- we're lucky to have three of the
world's leading advocates and experts, Al Gore, Lester Brown and Guy
Dauncey, delivering some of the best-ever climate change books
focusing on solutions. And while not that long ago ago we worried
that many in the climate change world had not recognized the
importance of transportation electrification and the near-term
benefits possible with today's technology, that's no longer the case.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
Find these books at your local bookstore or order them via the link
at http://www.calcars.org/books.html (the CalCars Books Page):
* PLAN B 4.0: MOBILIZING TO SAVE CIVILIZATION by the Earth Policy
Institute's Lester Brown has been substantially revised and expanded.
It inclludes extended discussions about integrating wind power and
plug-in cars, and it reviews the water and climate change
complexities of biofuels. It presents a persuasive description of the
components for a global transition to a sustainable and more
equitable world. If you want to show people you're what Amory Lovins
calls a "practical idealist," buy this book so you can read and be
able to convey the story on pages 259-261: the all-important
post-Pearl Harbor mobilization of U.S. manufacturing was led by the
auto industry. Everyone was skeptical about President Roosevelt's
call for 60,000 planes -- but the transformed industry turned out
229,600 in three years. See a review at Climate Progress
http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/13/lester-brown-new-book-plan-b-4-0-mobilizin\
g-to-save-civilization/
.
* THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE: 101 SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING, by Canadian
author, speaker and journalist Guy Dauncey, fulfills the promise of
its title in ways that many "list books" don't: it's comprehensive as
well as specific. Jumping out of 2-page-spread-by-spread are 35 key
challenges, then 10 solutions each for individuals, champions,
communities, businesses, farmers, transportation, energy companies,
government, and developing nations. It ends with 10 global
solutions. PHEVs appear prominently in three main solutions, with
the final one, "Develop a Sustainable Vehicles Strategy" highlighting
Andy Grove's advocacy of conversion of millions of gas-guzzlers. We
won't be spoil the plot when we say #101 is "One Solution for All of
Us: Don't Sit this One Out." You can learn more and order the book
from the author directly at http://www.theclimatechallenge.ca .
Disclosure: we're delighted that a CalCars PHEV is among the 15
photos on the cover (and larger inside)(, and that the inside pages
include our blurb. We said, "Finally here's a book that combines
thorough explanations for newcomers with innovative perspectives for
experts and effective answers for people, industries and
institutions. The Climate Challenge's imaginative format is
up-to-date, comprehensive, and immensely handy. It's as if Whole
Earth Catalog had been reborn 40 years later. Guy Dauncey pulls no
punches and is deeply, urgently persuasive. Anyone who reads this
will be moved to act."
* OUR CHOICE: A PLAN TO SOLVE THE CLIMATE CRISIS, by Al Gore, is the
long-awaited sequel to "An Inconvenient Truth." If you felt that
wake-up call lacked a focus on solutions beyond those for individual
consumers, now you have a bonanza. Like the other two above, this
book is comprehensive. In fact, it's almost encyclopedic, reflecting
the advice of hundreds of experts and including effective
illustrations and graphics. Though Gore had much help, this is not a
ghost-written product: you can hear his voice in almost every
sentence. In the Super Grid chapter a section starting on page 286
focuses on the benefits of plug-in cars in providing energy storage
solutions, concluding with a two-page graphic envisioning the future
grid, with a PHEV plugged in to a house via a grid transmitter and
smart meter. And it includes an excellent introduction to "black
carbon." And for those who may say the book has toomuch "wonkish"
detail, as we see it, there's no need to be defensive about science
and facts. Michelle Obama understood that when she praised Energy
Secretary Steven Chu in a Nov. 5 morale-building visit to the DOE,
saying "we are so incredibly grateful for his leadership. My husband
loves his Cabinet. He was extremely excited that he had a real nerd
on his team. (Laughter.) He talked about it for weeks on end."
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-first-lady-department-energy-\
event-0
And a few days later, Chu agreed with the First Lady telling her, at
a mock National Science Bowl event, that the competition " elevates
the social status of nerds everywhere."
http://www.er.doe.gov/News_Information/News_Room/2009/Nov%2010_ScienceBowl.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Below read about: The Cleantech Open Award has gone national and will
announce its 2009 awards in San Francisco this Tuesday--attend at a
discount. A new controversy grows about federal manufacturer credits
for plug-ins. President Obama continues to highlight PHEVs role and
has signed a somewhat improved Executive Order for fleets to purchase
plug-ins. X Prize contestants are mostly electric. Boulder Colorado
moves ahead on the smart grid; Inc magazine plays plug-ins big, and
the Freakanomics authors get taken down in the New Yorker.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
"ACADEMY AWARDS OF CLEAN TECHNOLOGY" TUESDAY IN SAN FRANCISCO: At the
spectacular Cleantech Open 2009 Awards Gala & Expo (since last year
the former California Cleantech Open has added regional and national
programs), see the next green companies and inventions, including
multiple automotive solutions. Held at the Masonic Center, Expo
starts in morning, pitches/demonstrations and Peoples' Choice voting
in afternoon, Awards Gala & $250K Prize in late afternoon, reception
in evening. Register now at
http://www.cleantechopen.com/app.cgi/events/view/84 . Use the
promotion code "CalCarsGala" for a 40% discount off the regular price of $129.
US PROPOSES 2:1 CREDITS FOR PLUG-INS: The Obama Administration is
sending out trial balloons about a plan to give automakers CAFE
credits that would count plug-in cars in multiples when calculating
requirements that carmakers meet the 35.5 MPG fleet average by
2016. fleet fuel efficiencies. The Wall Street Journal explained it
at
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB30001424052748703294004574513421680060530.html
and see other comments at
http://www.hybridcars.com/incentives-laws/debate-begins-cafe-credits-evs-26216.h\
tml
and
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/11/white-house-proposes-2-for-1-ca\
fe-credits-for-zero-emissions-vehicles.html
. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, representing
international and U.S. carmakers supports the idea. But with recent
memories of the bogus credits given to "flex-fuel" vehicles for which
there was no fuel, there's some hesitation among legislators and advocates.
MANEUVERING AND POSITIONING BY THE AUTO INDUSTRY AND OTHERS on
ceredits and sticker MPG ratings indicate how important plug-in cars
are getting. We're no longer surprised when a story like this is
subject of the weekly column of the Wall Street Journal Detroit
Bureau Chief. We simply take note when a story in Business Week
starts with a bang: "The electric car is likely to emerge as one of
the most transformational products of the current era, as important,
perhaps, as the personal computer and the Internet"
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2009/gb20091018_051999.htm
. And we nod when Accenture's discussion of the disruptive
technologies in transport fuel supply, demand and greenhouse gases
for the net 10 years cites three of 12 as "game-changers:" PHEVs,
controlled charging and vehicle-to-grid.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/11/accenture12-20091110.html
OBAMA ON PHEVS; On Oct. 27, President Obama announced a $3.4B
Recovery Act investment program for the Smart Grid at a solar energy
center in Florida. He said, "together, we can begin to see what a
clean energy future will look like. We can imagine the day when
you'll be able to charge the battery on your plug-in hybrid car at
night, because your smart meter reminded you that nighttime
electricity is cheapest. In the daytime, when the sun is at its
strongest, solar panels like these and electricity stored in car
batteries will be able to power the grid with affordable,
emission-free energy.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2009/10/27/smart-grid-creating-jobs-saving-energy\
-and-cutting-electric-bills
Full text at
http://blog.ostp.gov/2009/10/27/remarks-by-the-president-on-recovery-act-funding\
-for-smart-grid-technology/
. (These comments were quoted by NY Times columnist Bob Herbert, in
"A Glimpse of the Future"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/opinion/03herbert.html . Herbert
joins Thomas Friedman and Nicholas Kristoff as another fan of PHEVs
on the newspaper's Op-Ed page.)
EXECUTIVE ORDER BOOSTS PLUG-INS: On Oct. 5, the President signed
Executive Order 13514 on Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy,
and Economic Performance to accelerate Federal agencies' efforts. For
the government's 600,00 vehicle fleet, it requires a (relatively
modest) 30% reduction in petroleum use by 2020, and for agencies with
20 or more vehicles to reduce petroleum use by 2% annually through
2020. The text at http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2009/pdf/E9-24518.pdf
includes provisions for agencies to develop "Sustainability
Performance Plans" taking into account environmental, economic and
social benefits. Previous Executive Orders had focused on cost of
lifecycle return on investment (difficult to calculate before PHEVs
and EVs are on the market.) In coordination with the General Services
Administration, the Energy Department will develop within six months
guidance for fleet managers on alternative fuel vehicles and fuels.
It's a step forward.
ARPA-E ANNOUNCES FIRST GRANTS: The Advanced Research Projects
Agency-Energy awarded its first $151 million in grants, with $33M for
green vehicle projects. See comments by Dr. Andy Frank as well as
CalCars' Ron Gremban and Felix Kramer at
http://earth2tech.com/2009/10/28/what-the-arpa-e-bets-mean-for-the-future-of-gre\
en-cars/
MOST AUTOMOTIVE X PRIZE CONTESTANTS WILL PLUG IN: If you look at the
whittled-down list of 43 entrants from 10 countries that have made it
past the second judging stage, at
http://www.progressiveautoxprize.org/teams you'll see that well over
half are PHEV or EV flavors. (The Automotive X Prize just got $5.5M
in ARRA funds to support its evaluation and education activities.)
BOULDER, COLORADO'S SMARTGRIDCITY: The SmartGridCity project now
getting started is described as "the first fully functioning smart
grid enabled city in the world." It's a joint effort of the a new
joint venture between the U.S. Department of Energy's National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the University of Colorado at
Boulder's Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute (RASEI), with
Xcel Energy and a 150-vehicle demonstration fleet, including 10 Prius
PHEVs from Toyota arriving in March 2010.
http://smartgridcity.xcelenergy.com/learn/index.asp
PREDICTIONS ABOUT FUTURE BATTERIES: CalCars has generally stayed away
from tracking or bringing to readers' attention the latest laboratory
breakthrough or promise about new battery technologies. We did find
worth noting that Prabhakar Patill, CEO of Compact Power (LG Chem
subsidiary supplying battery packs for the Volt), told the Reuters
Auto Summit in Detroit that battery costs would decline to one half
or one quarter of current levels within a decade.
http://www.reuters.com/article/Autos09/idUSTRE5A604B20091107
INC MAGAZINE'S COVER STORY ON PLUG-INS: This monthly magazine that
focuses on practical business opportunities turns vehicle
electrification has one of the longest cover stories yet on the
plug-in industry in its November issue. Its message is restated three
times. Cover: "The Innovation Machine: The electric car is coming.
And it's one big gold mine for savvy entrepreneurs." Table of
Contents: The Connected Car: Entrepreneurs, start your
(noncombustion) engines. The electric car is coming soon, creating a
new auto industry that will produce thousands of new companies."
First of the story's 10 pages: "Want to get into the car business?
The imminent introduction of electric vehicles will make possible --
in fact, will require -- the creation of a vast ecosystem of
entrepreneurial businesses." The cover photo is of three CEOs: Ann
Marie Sastry of battery maker Sakti3 (this dynamo also runs the
University of Michigan Advanced Materials Systems Lab), Peter Corsell
of GridPoint and Richard Lowenthal of Coulomb Technologies. The
article includes long sections and photos about the Chevy Volt and
interviews with key team members. It's not online but
it's summarized at
http://gm-volt.com/2009/11/04/chevy-volt-is-the-centerpiece-for-many-rapidly-eme\
rging-industries/
/the magazine presents at
http://www.inc.com/ss/6-areas-electric-car-ecosystem Inc
illustrations from the story: six "areas of opportunity" for the
Electric Car Ecosystem, showing the supply chain of products and
services involved: parts and suppliers, battery makers and
integrators, battery farmers, auto-telecom companies, builders of the
smart grid, and connectors.
THE BEST (IF NOT LAST) WORD ON THE FREAKONOMICS CONTROVERSY: Steven
D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, authors of the popular bestseller,
"SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why
Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance" have been getting waves of
criticism for their casual approach to climate change and
geoengineering. See a thought-provokingm biting and humorous
critique by Elizabeth Kolbert in the New Yorker at
http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2009/11/16/091116crbo_books_kolbert?\
currentPage=all
.
SIDE NOTE: We had to cancel our trip to India; we still have hopes to
connect with both Indian and Chinese automakers about promoting
acceleration of vehicle electrification in general as well as the
opportunities for converting millions of gas-guzzlers to plug in.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
The ICE (internal combustion engine) retrofit industry is gaining
momentum. Below we have news that Bright Automotive has signed its
first contract for a conversion with the U.S. Army. And ALTe is a new
company coming out of "stealth" with a Ford Crown Victoria taxi
conversion. We've added ALTe to our reorganized and expanded page on
ICE Conversions http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html and to
our PDF presentation on the business opportunity. For new PHEVS: GM's
Cadillac Converj evolves from concept to production-intent; the Opel
Ampera will move forward now that Opel won't be sold after all;
Fisker will produce its second generation vehicle in a former GM
plant in Delaware. A first look at the Piaggo PHEV motorcycle. And
as many expected, it appears that Chrysler is putting its plug-in
plans on the back burner.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
BRIGHT GETS FIRST CUSTOMER PHEV RETROFIT: Indiana-based Bright
Automotive continues to raise money and develop its plans for the
IDEA lightweight PHEV delivery van scheduled for 2012. Meanwhile, it
has launched Bright eSolutions
http://www.brightautomotive.com/esolutions/ to consult on
engineering, design, powertrain, battery technology and plug-in
hybrid conversion technology services. It announced its first
conversion contract: the U.S. Army Tank-Automotive Command
(TACOM) for a $1.4 million project to convert military non-combat
vehicle into a parallel PHEV for evaluation, including V2G
testing. See a drawing at
http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html#ba and more about Bright
at
http://m.industry.bnet.com/auto/10002860/million-dollar-army-contracts-are-a-lif\
eline-for-ev-and-battery-companies/
and the earlier
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/10002704/a-bright-future-indiana-plug-in-hybrid-co\
mpany-needs-government-funding/
.
ALTe: NEW GAS-GUZZLER CONVERSIONS COMPANY OUT OF STEALTH: This
Michigan company exhibited at the Detroit "Business of Plugging In"
conference and was interviewed there by Green Car Congress's Michael
Millikin -- story and photos at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/10/alte-20091026.html . The team
of auto industry veterans led by John Thomas, former general manager
at Tesla will target fleet customers with taxis, shuttles, SUVs and
other popular vehicles. Its "proof of concept" Ford Crown Vic taxi
improves fuel economy 80-200%, going from 14-43 MPG, with a return on
investment of less than two years. The company has ambitious plans to
'get big fast.' More at its website http://www.altellc.com/ .
CADILLAC CONVERJ CONCEPT NOW OK'D FOR PRODUCTION: GM's Board of
Directors has approved the premium version of the Chevy Volt for
production. At the North American Concept Vehicle of the Year Awards
in June, it was voted the "most significant concept vehicle of 2009."
No production date has been announced, but it will certainly come
after the Volt, still on schedule for November 2010.
http://detnews.com/article/20091109/AUTO01/911090394/GM-to-put-electric-Cadillac\
-Converj-into-production
AMPERA WILL BE GM PRODUCT AFTER ALL: GM's decision not to sell its
European brands Opel/Vauxhall means that the Ampera will go forward.
GM has appointed its often-controversial vice-chairman Bob Lutz (an
early Volt backer) as Opel chairman. The diesel Ampera, like the
Converj, is another of what GM calls "EREV" for extended range
electric vehicle, otherwise described as a series PHEV.
FISKER WILL BUILD ITS SECOND PHEV AT FORMER GM PLANT IN DELAWARE:
Fisker Automotive http://www.fiskerautomotive.com will build its
$48,000 "Project NINA" sedan (expected to cost $40,000 after a
federal tax credit) at the former GM Boxwood Road plant, near
Newport, DL. GM shuttered the 52-year-old plant in July; most
recently, the Saturn Sky and Pontiac Solstice were produced there.
Fisker is buying it for $18M from its $528M federal loan. Vice
President Joe Biden and Delaware Gov. Jack Markell were at the
announcement. With production beginning in 2012, the plant could
eventually build 100,000 vehicles a year and support 2,000 factory
and 3,o000 vendor and supplier jobs. Fisker is currently outsourcing
production of its first vehicle, the pricier Karma, to Valmet
Automotive in Finland.
PIAGGIO'S MP3 PHEV MOTORCYCLE: We haven't mentioned this previously.
The Financial Times has a first look at this vehicle, which is not
only the world's first hybrid scooter, it's also the first PHEV.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/c2728474-b799-11de-9812-00144feab49a.html
CHRYSLER BACKS AWAY FROM ELECTRICITY: While continuing already-funded
development of a small test fleet of a PHEV minivan and truck for
2011 and a possible EV in 2012, Chrysler, now led by Fiat's Sergio
Marchionne, is now re-focusing in incorporating internal combustion
engine technologies from Fiat for the next five years. Most observers
see this as a significant setback for the prospects of plug-in
vehicles this still-large company with many U.S facilities. Some have
pointed out that 60,000 plug-ins by 2015 (1-2% of total vehicles
manufactured by Chrysler) is "half a million fewer electric vehicles
by 2014 than it promised in its application for the $12.5 billion
federal bailout it received from taxpayers"
http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/10/chrysler-fiat-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehi\
cles-evs/#more-13913
. With a different view, Car Connection's Richard Reed thinks it
could be good news that plug-ins will be integrated into mainstream
development at Chrysler:
http://blogs.thecarconnection.com/marty-blog/1038132_chrysler-retools-its-ev-pro\
gram-possibly-for-the-better
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Thomas Friedman, Pulitzer-Prize winning NYTimes
columnist, has been writing eloquently and
persuasively about cleantech's potential to
change and improve the world. He says "E.T. --
energy technology" will have an even greater
impact than "I.T. -- information technology." In
his bestselling book, "Hot, Flat and Crowded," he
devoted great attention to plug-in hybrids and
the smart grid, citing CalCars' work and views
(see http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/996.html
); he also included us in his film, "Addicted to
Oil." On Monday, he moderated the panel at the
launch of the Electrification Coalition
event (more from us on that soon), after which
he and I exchanged emails. In today's column, he
writes about oil dependency, and cites a comment
I made to him. Read the column below, followed by
the complete thought from which he quotes part 1.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting
will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there
you can add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
For an index to Friedman's columns, see
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/thomaslf\
riedman/index.html
(among the best recent ones are "More Poetry,
Please," (Nov 1) and "Real Men Tax Gas" (Sept. 20)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/opinion/18friedman.html
The New York Times November 18, 2009
" What They Really Believe" by Op-Ed Columnist Thomas L. Friedman
If you follow the debate around the
energy/climate bills working through Congress you
will notice that the drill-baby-drill opponents
of this legislation are now making two claims.
One is that the globe has been cooling lately,
not warming, and the other is that America simply
can't afford any kind of cap-and-trade/carbon tax.
But here is what they also surely believe, but
are not saying: They believe the world is going
to face a mass plague, like the Black Death, that
will wipe out 2.5 billion people sometime between
now and 2050. They believe it is much better for
America that the world be dependent on oil for
energy -- a commodity largely controlled by
countries that hate us and can only go up in
price as demand increases --rather than on clean
power technologies that are controlled by us and
only go down in price as demand increases. And,
finally, they believe that people in the
developing world are very happy being poor --
just give them a little running water and
electricity and they'll be fine. They'll never want to live like us.
Yes, the opponents of any tax on carbon to
stimulate alternatives to oil must believe all
these things because that is the only way their
arguments make any sense. Let me explain why by
first explaining how I look at this issue.
I am a clean-energy hawk. Green for me is not
just about recycling garbage but about renewing
America. That is why I have been saying "green is the new red, white and blue."
My argument is simple: I think climate change is
real. You don't? That's your business. But there
are two other huge trends barreling down on us
with energy implications that you simply can't
deny. And the way to renew America is for us to
take the lead and invent the technologies to address these problems.
The first is that the world is getting crowded.
According to the 2006 U.N. population report,
"The world population will likely increase by 2.5
billion ... passing from the current 6.7 billion
to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is
equivalent to the total size of the world
population in 1950, and it will be absorbed
mostly by the less developed regions, whose
population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion
in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050."
The energy, climate, water and pollution
implications of adding another 2.5 billion mouths
to feed, clothe, house and transport will be
staggering. And this is coming, unless, as the
deniers apparently believe, a global pandemic or
a mass outbreak of abstinence will freeze world population -- forever.
Now, add one more thing. The world keeps getting
flatter more and more people can now see how we
live, aspire to our lifestyle and even take our
jobs so they can live how we live. So not only
are we adding 2.5 billion people by 2050, but
many more will live like "Americans" -- with
American-size homes, American-size cars, eating American-size Big Macs.
"What happens when developing nations with
soaring vehicle populations get tens of millions
of petroleum-powered cars at the same time as the
global economy recovers and there's no large
global oil supply overhang?" asks Felix Kramer,
the electric car expert who advocates
electrifying the U.S. auto fleet and increasingly
powering it with renewable energy sources. What
happens, of course, is that the price of oil goes
through the roof -- unless we develop
alternatives. The petro-dictators in Iran,
Venezuela and Russia hope we don't. They would only get richer.
So either the opponents of a serious
energy/climate bill with a price on carbon don't
care about our being addicted to oil and
dependent on petro-dictators forever or they
really believe that we will not be adding 2.5
billion more people who want to live like us, so
the price of oil won't go up very far and,
therefore, we shouldn't raise taxes to stimulate
clean, renewable alternatives and energy efficiency.
Green hawks believe otherwise. We believe that in
a world getting warmer and more crowded with more
"Americans," the next great global industry is
going to be E.T., or energy technology based on
clean power and energy efficiency. It has to be.
And we believe that the country that invents and
deploys the most E.T. will enjoy the most
economic security, energy security, national
security, innovative companies and global
respect. And we believe that country must be
America. If not, our children will never enjoy
the standard of living we did. And we believe the
best way to launch E.T. is to set a fixed,
long-term price on carbon combine it with the
Obama team's impressive stimulus for green-tech
and then let the free market and innovation do the rest.
So, as I said, you don't believe in global
warming? You're wrong, but I'll let you enjoy it
until your beach house gets washed away. But if
you also don't believe the world is getting more
crowded with more aspiring Americans -- and that
ignoring that will play to the strength of our
worst enemies, while responding to it with clean
energy will play to the strength of our best
technologies -- then you're willfully blind, and
you're hurting America's future to boot.
FULL EXCHANGE FROM WHICH QUOTE IS TAKEN:
On Monday, Friedman asked, "How close are we at
scale from clean power? If not, what's the point
of elect cars powered by coal?"
It's of course true that we need to fix the grid
while we build green cars. (That's where we get
my favorite thing about plug-in cars, quoted in
"Hot, Flat and Crowded" -- they're the only ones
that get cleaner as they get older, because the grid gets cleaner.)
Still, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn gave the simple
answer to that question: we're ahead on emissions
even if we power cars by coal. That's because
electric motors are up to 4x more efficient than
internal combustion engines (well-to-wheel energy use).
But what about China and India? Here's the
scenario I've NEVER seen analysts or journalists talk about:
What happens when developing nations with soaring
vehicle populations get tens of millions of
petroleum-powered cars at the same time as the
global economy recovers and there's no large
global oil supply overhang? These countries and
their customers will have to scramble to fuel
their cars. (As you know, China is already
working to lock in contracts around the world.)
What if they can't get enough? India and China
will then look to their enormous coal reserves.
As Germany and South Africa did when they had no
supply, they will go the route of liquifying coal
into gasoline. The CO2 impacts will be 2-3x
higher than using that coal directly to power
EVs. (Let's not even talk about water....)
That's why, YES, we'll better off if starting
right now, India and China build new cars that
run on electricity. Even if (short-term), that
electricity comes form coal, long-term they too
will have every reason to get their grids off
coal. And then everyone will be glad their vehicles can plug in.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Here's CalCars' comment: "We applaud Toyota's recognition that PHEVs'
time has come. The technology is good enough to get started and the
solution offers a good business case. We hope as this hybrid pioneer
watches large and small competitors start selling PHEVs a year
earlier, it will accelerate its timetable and raise production levels."
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
THE PRIUS'S TIMELINES TO TODAY: It's taken a long time. Toyota
introduced the Prius as the first-mass-production hybrid in Japan in
1997. It went global in 2001; the second-generation vehicle arrived
in 2004, the third in 2009, and over two million have been sold.
Meanwhile CalCars did the first Prius conversion in 2004, sparking
the growth of an aftermarket industry. Since 2006, a thousand plug-in
Prius conversions showing what was possible helped build awareness
and support for PHEVs, and the company's public comments evolved from
dismissive to open-minded (see
http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html#toyotaquotes ).
Toyota showed its first PHEV prototype in 2007. Until this week, the
company had announced plans only for fleet leases of 600
demonstration/test units in Japan, the U.S., and Europe, with
consumer sales only a possibility. Now it will start selling them in
2011, with tens of thousands in showrooms in 2012 at a "affordable"
price tag. Reporters say Toyota has concluded that PHEVs "will become
the market mainstream."
http://motoring.asiaone.com/Motoring/News/Story/A1Story20091208-184656.html
NFORMATION SOURCES: Toyota has a new website with basic explanations
and specifications at http://www.priusphv.com . And see the
illuminating 20-slide presentation by Toyota Chief Engineer Yoshikazu
Tanaka
http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/tech/environment/conference09/pdf/phv_overview_en.pdf
. At http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/tmc-phv-20091214.html
read Green Car Congress's summary and postings. Following are our
comments based on announced specifications.
BUSINESS DETAILS: Tanaka's presentation projects "full-scale
commercialization in two years, on the order of several ten
thousands, with widely affordable pricing." Toyota EVP Uchiyamada
indicates (below) that the vehicle could sell for under $33,770. With
U.S. Recovery Act tax credits of up to $7,500 for the first 200,000
plug-in vehicle from each manufacturer based on battery capacity; the
PHV's 5.2 kWh battery pack, from its joint venture Panasonic EV
Energy, makes it eligible for about $2,500.
If prices hold, we've been on the right track in saying Toyota might
sell a plug-in Prius for little more than $3,000 over a non-PHEV
model. A 3.4 useful-kWh pack at $1,000/useful-kWh would cost $3,400.
The $1,000 saved by eliminating the NiMH battery could offset a
similar cost for a charger and a beefed-up DC:DC converter. As those
battery prices decline with the credits, PHEVs could approach the
cost of standard hybrids.
Operating costs for a 30km trip compared to gasoline vehicle, based
on Japanese petroleum and electric rates, are 58% better when
charging at peak times and 77% better off-peak.
TECHNICAL DETAILS: Comparing the vehicle with the 2010 Prius on which
it's based (specs at http://www.toyota.com/prius-hybrid/specs.html ),
its weight (3,284 pounds/1,490 kg) increases by 242 pounds/110 kg.
The engine and motor appear identical, and modified electronics will
allow more power from the electric motor.
The PHV uses over 60% of the its 5.2kWh lithium-ion battery pack's
capacity to get 23.4 km/14.5 miles all-electric driving at speeds up
to 100 km/62 miles/hour. (For Japanese drivers traveling shorter
distances, the 20 km "sweet spot" covers 53.7% of daily driving and
51.2% of weekend driving.) Recharging is 180 minutes at 110-120
volts, 100 minutes at 220 -- offering good opportunities to double
the vehicle's effective range for those who can charge mid-day at work.
Petroleum and greenhouse gas reductions depend on multiple
assumptions -- we can simply say that using the new JC08 driving
cycle yields over 100 MPG of gasoline. See
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/12/15/what-does-the-prius-phev-mileage-really-mea\
n-on-the-jc08-cycle/
for a discussion of the PHV's fuel efficiency under different
conditions; this discussion leaves out consideration of the
difference between CAFE and sticker numbers.
FEATURES: The vehicle's new screens' full integration with the
navigation system and information about the battery will give drivers
feedback about optimizing fuel economy. The car can be cooled in
advance while still plugged in for comfort and fuel efficiency.
LOCATIONS: In addition to its already-announced pilot program in
Boulder, CO, regional demonstration programs will come to California,
Washington DC, New York City, Portland, OR and Pittsburgh, PA. No
word on consumer sales regions.
CREDITS TO THE CONVERTERS: We were encouraged to hear that "Executive
Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota's R&D chief and father of
the original Prius, declined to specify a price range but indicated
it would likely be far cheaper than 3 million yen ($33,770).
'Nowadays in the United States, they sell after-market kits for about
1 million yen ($11,260)' to convert a hybrid car into a plug-in, he
told a presentation on Monday. 'Of course, we would have to do much
better than that as a mass producer.'"
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BD11520091214.
Finally carmakers will get a chance to show how much better they can
do in mass-production -- not just on price, of course, but also on
quality, integration and optimization, safety, and warranties!
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
There's lots of recent news for GM -- and it's essentially all good.
When the company announced the Volt in January 2007, it said it
expected to have the car in mass production by fall 2010. Since then,
it has been remarkably open in showing the development process. And
in the face of skepticism from many directions, the Volt team still
expects to meet that original schedule -- now pegged as November
2010. Below are the latest previews, media reports, production plans,
and a review of battery cost controversies.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
VOLT TEAM SHOWS WORK IN PROGRESS: The old GM would never have wheeled
out a car for media ride-and-drives with a disclaimer about the car's
rough spots, accompanied by engineering team assurances that it could
fix them before launch. Usually-cynical, seasoned auto reviewers
responded well to this "warts and all" approach. Before driving the
Volt, Edmunds Green Car Advisor John O'Dell called it "the most
publicly visible new car development project in the history of
automobile development"
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/11/start-getting-amped---our-chevy\
-volt-behind-the-wheel-report-is-on-its-way.html
. After, he said "it was a thrill to drive a vehicle loaded with
potentially game-changing technology," and concluded, "Verdict: a
solid car with loads of promise from a technology that undoubtedly
will help bring clean electric driving into the mainstream"
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/11/2011-chevrolet-volt-test-drive-\
informative-but-far-too-short.html
. See Edmunds' simple technical summary and pointers to other reports
at
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/11/chevy-volt-technical-updates-fr\
om-chief-engineer-andrew-farah.html
.
Prize-winning LA Times columnist Dan Neil (who back in 2005 in LAT
Magazine cover story "Running on Empty," wrote the first test-drive
review of a Prius conversion) poetically said, "even in this rough
prototype, the Volt vibe is spacious, comfortable and lively. The
whole car seems lit from within by the ambitions of its builders."
Lindsay Brooke in the NY Times heard Vehicle Line Director Tony
Posawatz describe how they have nine months to fine-tune the software
to smooth out intermittent engine revving when recharging a low
battery
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/automobiles/autoreviews/22-chevy-volt.html
. And Volt engineers let the Detroit Free Press's Mark Phelan tag
along as they identified and solved problems within 24 hours
http://www.freep.com/article/20091119/COL14/911190474/1322/ .
GM ANNOUNCES INITIAL VOLT PRODUCTION VOLUMES: GM Vice President Bob
Lutz at the LA Auto Show said production levels would be 4-5,000 in
opening months with a first-year total of 8-10,000, followed by a
ramp-up to 50-60,000/year
http://gm-volt.com/2009/12/03/bob-lutz-announces-chevy-volt-production-volume-pl\
an/
. (We hope the response will be so great that GM will raise
production levels steadily!)
BOARD TRIES TO "MAKE THEM AN OFFER THEY CAN'T REFUSE:" Detroit turns
out not to be Godfather country: engineers know that sometimes more
people or resources slows things down. The NY Times cited anonymous
reports that GM's Board of Directors asked if $100 million would
enable the Volt team to get the car out the door before November
2010. The response from Jon Lauckner, Global Product Planning VP:
early in the program, the timing had been advanced; at this point,
more money wouldn't move up the timetable, but could get more
vehicles to consumers to test drive before high-volume manufacturing
begins http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/08/business/08auto.html .
CALIFORNIA WILL GET FIRST VOLTS: At the LA Auto Show, Bob Lutz said
that the first production Volts will come to California in late 2010
http://media.gm.com/content/media/us/en/news/news_detail.html/content/Pages/news\
/us/en/2009/Dec/1202_GM_Volt_Sales
. Outgoing Chevy chief Brent Dewar said, "It is natural that
California is the lead market for Volt. Not only is it the largest
automotive market, Californians are known to be leaders in adopting
groundbreaking new technologies." Though CalCars is globally-focused,
we're still home-town boosters. And we agree that the receptivity and
feedback from savvy business, technical and EV audiences will be very
helpful -- so we agree this is a wise strategy! Announcements of
other states will follow
http://gm-volt.com/2009/12/02/california-will-be-first-state-to-get-the-chevy-vo\
lt/
.
MICHIGAN GETS $700M IN VOLT-RELATED INVESTMENTS: GM announced it will
invest $336M in the Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Center for the Volt.
Edmunds reports the source of components: tooling from Grand Blanc,
lithium-ion batteries from GM's Brownstown Township battery pack
manufacturing facility, camshafts and connecting rods from Bay City,
and stampings and the Volt's 1.4-liter engine-generator from Flint
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/12/gm-to-invest-336-million-in-det\
roit-hamtramck-plant-to-build-chevrolet-volt-er-ev.html
.
OPEL AMPERA, EUROPEAN VOLT, ALSO ON TRACK: The left-hand drive diesel
vehicle will reach the market in late 2011; right-hand drive
Vauxhalls for Britain will follow in 2012
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/12/opel-ampera---europes-chevy-vol\
t---is-on-track-for-2011-production-gm-exec-says.html
.
GM BATTERY COSTS REBUT DOWNBEAT ASSUMPTIONS: The latest flawed study
of PHEVs, this time from the U.S. National Research Council, projects
a PHEV-40 battery pack costing $14,000, resulting in the vehicle
costing $18,000 more than its equivalent non-hybrid. The report says
if battery technology changes incrementally, this cost will decline
only one-third by 2020; even if there are some "battery
breakthroughs," they won't show up in vehicles until 2030. See a
report at
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/nrc-phev-20091215.html and a
summary at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12826 .
When asked about battery cost for its 40-mile pack, GM hasn't been
specific but has said it's well below these estimates, and heading
much lower in its second generation in a few years. And of course, GM
and other carmakers are getting advanced battery designs that didn't
exist a few years ago into production volumes for cars in years, not decades.
CALCARS' RON GREMBAN EXPLAINS BATTERY PRICING: Plug-in vehicle
battery prices are often quoted out of context. Even if accurate,
such figures can be a factor of 2-3 off from actual battery pack
costs to manufacturers, thereby mis-stating the economic viability of
plug-in technology. It's most useful to focus cost of complete
battery packs in high volumes, calculated per "useful-pack-kWh
kilowatt-hour" (capacity actually used by the vehicle). For example,
the cells in the Volt's pack have a nameplate total capacity of 16
kWh, but to ensure long battery life, the Volt actually uses only 8
kWh. Pack costs per nameplate capacity may run 3-4x the cost of
individual cells, though over time this should decline to as little
as 1.5x. Retail costs for small quantities of cells developed
specifically for cars can't be used for calculations -- they will
cost far more than the wholesale rates to carmakers.
The NRC report's figure of $14,000 for a Volt-like 8 useful-kWh pack
yields $1,750 per useful-pack-kWh. GM's costs are closer to
$1,000/useful-kWh for the first-generation Volt, and we've seen
industry figures closer to $600/useful-pack-kWh for production packs
for delivery in the next few years. The NRC report also says we can
expect minimal cost declines from technology improvements and
economies of scale because Li-ion batteries are already produced in
great quantities for consumer products. But these are very different
cells and packs. Those required for plug-in vehicles are just
beginning production, with significant efficiency improvements
already appearing, along with better-than-expected battery life.
Consumer cells are currently selling in quantity for $150-250/kWh.
Calculations with best assumptions1.5x $150 or conservative 4x $250
translate into $225-$1,000/useful-pack-kWh -- a far cry from the
paper's $1,750/useful-pack-kWh estimates!
VOLT RESEARCH PROJECT: Following the launch, a $30M US Department of
Energy real-world demonstration project will bring hundreds of Volts
to Pacific Gas and Electric, Southern California Edison and
Sacramento Municipal Utility District and some of their customers.
The Electric Power Research Institute and seven other utilities will
also be involved. GM's Tony Posawatz discusses that project and the
development benefits resulting from all Volts being able to send
performance data back to the company through GM's unique OnStar
telematic system at
http://gm-volt.com/2009/12/11/gm-no-volts-to-consumers-prior-to-november-2010-do\
e-grant-is-to-study-500-to-5000-consumer-driven-volts/
.
MARKETING STRIDES AND MIS-STEPS: See and join GM's social media
efforts at http://www.chevroletvoltage.com/ ,
http://www.facebook.com/Chevrolet , http://www.twitter.com/Chevrolet
, and the Q&As at
http://www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/default/future/volt.do .
Recently, the company slipped up with a retro "song-and-dance"
presented hourly at the LA Auto Show that was widely ridiculed for
not matching up to the Volt's messaging. (In GM's defense, the song
was originally aimed at middle-schoolers.) Catch up on that at
http://www.gm-volt.com or Youtube.
GM WORKS WITH NATIONAL FEDERATION OF THE BLIND FOR EV SOUNDS: Though
the dangers of too-quiet electric vehicles has been overblown (see
CalCars-News Oct 17), it's still real, and there are easy solutions.
The company plans to work for universal standards as well: see a GM
posting and two-minute video demo at
http://chevroletvoltage.com/index.php/Blog/stop-look-listen.html .
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
When the National Academy of Science's outgoing fuel cell analyst
team produced a flawed study as its last act, the broad community
promoting plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles barely noticed. There
were so many things wrong with the report that we thought it pass
unnoticed. But because of its source and its message, it's been
picked up broadly -- especially by media that often first build up
and then undermine innovative, promising solutions. With the
publication of a very critical editorial in the Washington Post aimed
directly at Vice President Biden, it's clear this report could
provide the rationale for a full-scale "rollback" effort by opponents
of vehicle electrification. This is a threat to the still-growing
commitment of the U.S. Department of Energy to that strategy.
Unfortunately, the useful insights in the report are overshadowed by
its poor analysis and shallow thinking. We're on vacation this week
but are taking time off to post some quick comments and urge all the
involved constituents to step up to the challenge of responding to
this report. Below that you'll find sources and backup information
that we hope will spark others to jump in with critiques, especially
to media and to elected officials.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
THE SOURCE OF THE REPORT: It's by the "Committee on Assessment of
Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies," which after
completing its 2008 report, "Transitions to Alternative
Transportation Technologies--A Focus on Hydrogen," was asked to stay
on to extend its analysis to PHEVs. The chairman (a retired Exxon
Mobil executive) acknowledges, "It is unusual for the NRC to
reconvene a committee organized for one purpose to investigate
another but this is an unusual committee in another way, too," citing
the high caliber of the committee members. At the end of this posting
we include a listing of the Committee members, so readers can see who's who.
THE DOE FLARE-UP ON HYDROGEN: This report arrives a few months after
an unusual series of developments, when governemnt funders for the
first time in decades addressed the problem that fuel cells in cars
were always "10-20" years away, and that the solution got a free ride
on the engineering implications of hydrogen being only a carrier of
energy, not an energy source. The Department of Energy, led by
Secretary Steven Chu, essentially zeroed out support for hydrogen
fuel cells in transportation, saying that plug-in vehicles and other
solutions were far more feasible for the near- and mid-term. Down but
not out, the fuel cell industry then successfully lobbied in Congress
to reinstate the funding.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NOW: This report is an incendiary tool that
others are using to undermine support for PHEVs and EVs. Its science
and economics need to be refuted -- and its implications need to be
responded to publicly and politically. We believe the Fuel Cell
Committee was unqualified and insufficiently broad to conduct this
study. It consulted minimally with automakers, battery manufacturers
and utilities. Its conclusions overlook the current and future
business modeling of those communities -- all of which are now
proving that PHEVs' prospects are fare better than the simplified and
beyond-worst-case scenarios painted by the Committee. Those whose
views are inadequately reflected in the report are best equipped to
rebut the study. Industries with a strong stake in vehicle
electrification include automakers, battery and other component
suppliers, and electric utilities. Equally important to step forward
are Congressional supporters -- and the Department of Energy itself,
with the department's views and documentation from its National Labs.
We hope all these constituencies will release or develop their own
analyses and responses -- including ones they may have submitted
privately to the Fuel Cell Committee -- for public review.
THE STUDY'S MAIN CONCLUSION is the beginning of the conversation, not
a reason to abandon PHEVs: It will take decades for vehicles that use
less fossil fuels than today's gas-guzzlers to have a significant
impact on petroleum or greenhouse gas reduction. We've been saying
that for the past year: market penetration isn't fast when you're
gearing up to build first tens and hundreds of thousands, then
millions and tens of millions of new vehicles to add to or replace
the 250 million vehicles in the U.S. and the 900 million globally.
That's why the study's suggestion that we take as many steps as
possible to improve energy efficiency in conventional cards is a
non-controversial given, as is reduction in miles travelled. And
that's why we aim to persuade plug-in advocates to join a new effort
to fix millions of the largest gas-guzzlers as soon as possible. Our
"Big Fix" campaign http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html is the
equivalent in vehicles to weatherization ("cash for caulkers") and
other steps to fix the vast number of buildings that will remain in
use for decades.
TO SPEED MARKET PENETRATION OF PLUG-IN VEHICLES, we need to: 1. Start
now 2. Move as quickly as possible 3. Explore every way of reaching
our goals sooner. Let's translate each of those items into what the
Fuel Cell Committee says and what we and others think should happen:
1. START NOW: the Fuel Cell Committee concludes: "A portfolio
approach to research, development, demonstration, and, perhaps,
market transition support is essential. It is not clear what
technology or combination of technologies -- batteries, hydrogen, or
biofuels -- will be most effective in reducing the nation's oil
dependency to levels that may be necessary in the long run."
PHEV-FOCUSED VIEW FROM ELECTRIFICATION COALITION: We have not yet had
a chance to post a full analysis of the Electrification Coalition
report from November: it's an essential document, and it presents a
different approach. The top leaders of Fedex, Nissan, Johnson
Controls, A123Systems, Cisco and others say it's time to pick a
winner! (Get the report NOW at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org .) A few excerpts: "Instead
of scattered, inconsistent federal support for a wide variety of
alternatives, what is required is a coherent, focused strategy
designed to radically drive down oil consumption in the light-duty
fleet. Part of this strategy must be the acknowledgement that other
alternatives, while having value, cannot ultimately revolutionize
America's light-duty fleet and end oil dependence. (page 13) The
transportation sector will most likely provide the greatest
opportunities for early emissions abatement in the United States and
elsewhere. (page 35) Electrification of transportation is the best
solution for dramatically reducing oil dependence. The United States
now has the capacity to permanently enhance its national security and
safeguard the economy. To do so, however, the nation must choose to
commit to a new path: a fundamental transformation of our
transportation sector, moving from cars and trucks that depend on
costly oil- based fuels to an integrated system that powers our
mobility with domestically-generated electricity. (page 36)
2. MOVE AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE WITH TODAY'S TECHNOLOGY: The Fuel Cell
Committee effectively is calling for a scaling down of commitments to
battery and PHEV commercialization, saying that it will lock us into
decades of non-cost-effective choices and long-term subsidies in the
hundreds of billions of dollars. Instead it favors more of the
ecumenical "support all approaches" -- which of course, puts hydrogen
back into the picture.
PHEV-FOCUSED VIEW FROM ELECTRIFICATION COALITION: Here's what the EC
said in calling some of the report's assumptions "off the mark:" "The
NRC report reaches its conclusions by assuming battery costs that are
far higher than current industry estimates. In addition, the report
underestimates expected reductions in cost as battery technology
continues to improve and economies of scale come into play. 'The
battery cost assumptions going into this report not only run counter
to our own exhaustive research, they run counter to the findings of
most anyone who has looked at this issue or worked in this field,'
PRTM, a global management consulting firm that has provided market
analysis and technical input for the Electrification Coalition,
said." http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-nrc.php
PHEV-FOCUSED VIEW FROM CALCARS: Here's a re-run of our posting last
week at CalCars-News, focusing on GM's Volt: GM BATTERY COSTS REBUT
DOWNBEAT ASSUMPTIONS: The latest flawed study of PHEVs, this time
from the U.S. National Research Council, projects a PHEV-40 battery
pack costing $14,000, resulting in the vehicle costing $18,000 more
than its equivalent non-hybrid. The report says if battery technology
changes incrementally, this cost will decline only one-third by 2020;
even if there are some "battery breakthroughs," they won't show up in
vehicles until 2030. When asked about battery cost for its 40-mile
pack, GM hasn't been specific but has said it's well below these
estimates, and heading much lower in its second generation in a few
years. And of course, GM and other carmakers are getting advanced
battery designs that didn't exist a few years ago into production
volumes for cars in years, not decades.
CALCARS TECHNOLOGY LEAD RON GREMBAN EXPLAINS BATTERY PRICING: Plug-in
vehicle battery prices are often quoted out of context. Even if
accurate, such figures can be a factor of 2-3 off from actual battery
pack costs to manufacturers, thereby mis-stating the economic
viability of plug-in technology. It's most useful to focus cost of
complete battery packs in high volumes, calculated per
"useful-pack-kWh kilowatt-hour" (capacity actually used by the
vehicle). For example, the cells in the Volt's pack have a nameplate
total capacity of 16 kWh, but to ensure long battery life, the Volt
actually uses only 8 kWh. Pack costs per nameplate capacity may run
3-4x the cost of individual cells, though over time this should
decline to as little as 1.5x. Retail costs for small quantities of
cells developed specifically for cars can't be used for calculations
-- they will cost far more than the wholesale rates to carmakers. The
NRC report's figure of $14,000 for a Volt-like 8 useful-kWh pack
yields $1,750 per useful-pack-kWh. GM's costs are closer to
$1,000/useful-kWh for the first-generation Volt, and we've seen
industry figures closer to $600/useful-pack-kWh for production packs
for delivery in the next few years. The NRC report also says we can
expect minimal cost declines from technology improvements and
economies of scale because Li-ion batteries are already produced in
great quantities for consumer products. But these are very different
cells and packs. Those required for plug-in vehicles are just
beginning production, with significant efficiency improvements
already appearing, along with better-than-expected battery life.
Consumer cells are currently selling in quantity for $150-250/kWh.
Calculations with best assumptions1.5x $150 or conservative 4x $250
translate into $225-$1,000/useful-pack-kWh -- a far cry from the
paper's $1,750/useful-pack-kWh estimates!
3 HOW FAST CAN WE GET THERE? The Fuel Cell Committee says the most
possible PHEVs and EVs by 2030 is 40 million -- but 13 million is a
more realistic target. The Electrification Coalition thinks with a
massive (and essential) effort, we can get 123 million by then. Is
there some disconnect? Is there some of the same "business as usual"
mentality that was the problem in the Boston Consulting Group's
report on plug-in vehicles commissioned by the Presidenty's
Automotive Task Force last spring?
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1055.html . This needs to be a
national topic of discussion and debate.
THE WASHINGTON POST'S EDITORIAL BOARD has inspired much controversy
in recent months, especially in its much-criticized (and ridiculed)
decisions to feature multiple columns on climate change by George
Will without minimal fact-checking (documented by the ClimateProgress
blog and others), culminating in its decision to feature Sarah
Palin's views on that subject. Now shifting its attention, its
December 17 editorial titled "Plug-in hybrid subsidies are a bad deal
for taxpayers" starts with a frontal attack on Vice President Biden's
push to increase tax credits for plug-in vehicle technologies, It
stirs the pot with a provocative comment that this is all an effort
to benefit upper-income people, buttressed with imprecise comments
about the price of impending PHEVs: The Volt will cost "as much as a
BMW" (rather than saying it's expected to cost $30-35,000). No
mention of Toyota's plans to bring in a PHEV much cheaper than that.
It adds an eye-catching $303 billion as the price tag for subsidies
to make them competitive by 2047! It concludes by suggesting as the
alternative REDUCING fossil fuel use by improving conventional
vehicle efficiency. (Of course most people support this, but it's
very different than DISPLACING fossil fuels with electricity.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/17/AR2009121704152.\
html
FOR THE FULL FUEL CELL COMMITTEE REPORT: It's "sort of" available at
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12826. It's a
pre-publication review document (i.e. in theory it could be revised
before final publication): you can download the PDF for $30, get the
Executive Summary in PDF For free, or view the entire document for
free online, chapter by chapter.
QUICK SUMMARY OF REPORT: Here's the first half of the news release
"Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Costs Likely to Remain High, Benefits Modest
for Decades"
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12826 :
Costs of plug-in hybrid electric cars are high -- largely due to
their lithium-ion batteries -- and unlikely to drastically decrease
in the near future, says a new report from the National Research
Council. Costs to manufacture plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in
2010 are estimated to be as much as $18,000 more than for an
equivalent conventional vehicle. Although a mile driven on
electricity is cheaper than one driven on gasoline, it will likely
take several decades before the upfront costs decline enough to be
offset by lifetime fuel savings. Subsidies in the tens to hundreds
of billions of dollars over that period will be needed if plug-ins
are to achieve rapid penetration of the U.S. automotive market. Even
with these efforts, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are not expected
to significantly impact oil consumption or carbon emissions before 2030.
Battery technology has been developing rapidly, but steep declines in
cost do not appear likely over the next couple of decades because
lithium-ion batteries are already produced in large quantities for
cell phones and laptop computers. In the first generation of
production, the PHEV-10 battery pack is estimated to cost about
$3,300, and the PHEV-40 battery pack about $14,000. While these
costs will come down, a fundamental breakthrough in battery
technology, unforeseen at present, would be needed to make plug-ins
widely affordable in the near future.
According to the committee that wrote the report, the maximum number
of plug-in electric vehicles that could be on the road by 2030 is 40
million, assuming rapid technological progress in the field,
increased government support, and consumer acceptance of these
vehicles. However, factors such as high cost, limited availability
of places to plug in, and market competition suggest that 13 million
is a more realistic number, the report says. Even this more modest
estimate assumes that current levels of government support will
continue for several decades. [Followed by warnings of what happens
if drivers charge at times of high demand, and comparisons of the
relative fuel economy and CO2 emissions, with comparisons to hybrids
rather than to internal combusion engine vehicles.]
WHO'S ON THE COMMITTEE ON ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE NEEDS FOR FUEL CELL
AND HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGIES: CHAIR: MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, ExxonMobil
Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey
RAKESH AGRAWAL, NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana *
DAVID L. BODDE, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina * DAVID
FRIEDMAN, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C. * SUSAN
FUHS, Conundrum Consulting, Hermosa Beach, California * JUDI
GREENWALD, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington, D.C. *
ROBERT L. HIRSCH, Management Information Services, Inc., Alexandria,
Virginia * JAMES R. KATZER, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Washington, D.C. * GENE NEMANICH, ChevronTexaco
Technology Ventures (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona * JOAN OGDEN,
University of California, Davis, Davis, California * LAWRENCE T.
PAPAY, NAE, Science Applications International Corporation (retired),
La Jolla, California * IAN W.H. PARRY, Resources for the Future,
Washington, D.C. WILLIAM F. POWERS, NAE, Ford Motor Company
(retired), Boca Raton, Florida * EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania * ROBERT W. SHAW, JR. Arete
Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire * ARNOLD F. STANCELL,2 NAE,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Greenwich, Connecticut * TONY WU,
Southern Company, Wilsonville, Alabama * CONSULTANT: JAMES CANADA;
PROJECT STAFF: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems * ALAN
CRANE, Study Director * JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, * BEES JONATHAN
YANGER, Senior Project Assistant; NAE PROGRAM OFFICE: PENELOPE
GIBBS, Senior Program Associate
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Welcome to 2010: The Year of the Plug-In Car. Here's our take on
where we are as we enter this thrilling time. Plus some new
opportunities and ways to get involved, two important events in
Washington, DC in the next four weeks, and our thanks to many of the
people who helped us come so far. We encourage you to forward see
this and other CalCars-News messages as resources you can forward.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be
viewable at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can
add CalCars-News to your RSS feed.)
WE'VE BEEN WORKING TO GET TO THIS MOMENT. For CalCars, it's been
eight years. Some people we know have been on a
two-to-four-decade-long quest. Soon we'll be driving safe,
affordable, highway-capable plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles
from the world's major carmakers and some brash startups. The first
cars will arrive in selected markets this year. Next year, people in
many states, provinces and countries will finally be able to simply
go into dealer showrooms and buy them. Some skeptics, engulfed by the
reality of industry progress, now fall back to ask, "Will any but the
early adopters buy them?" Of course, it's too soon to tell. We expect
that plug-ins' comparative advantages and social benefits combined
with initial subsidies will eventually lead to their full
competitiveness on features and price, broad market penetration, and
eventual dominance.
PLUG-INS COME TO CALIFORNIA: This year, a family like ours, in the
early-adopter state of CA, has the happy prospect of replacing our
Toyota Prius aftermarket PHEV conversion with a new PHEV, such as the
Chevy Volt (or the pricier Fisker Karma). For local driving, we'll
likely replace our Toyota Camry HEV with a 100-mile-range EV such as
the Nissan LEAF or CODA sedan. CalCars Tech Lead Ron Gremban hopes to
follow a similar path. For details on these long-awaited debuts, see
CalCars' PHEV listing at http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html and
Plug In America's broader tracker at
http://www.pluginamerica.org/plug-in-vehicle-tracker.html .
CARMAKERS START THEIR MARKETING EFFORTS: The auto industry's giant
marketing machines will help immeasurably in putting plug-in cars as
drivers' next choice. Already, it's often no longer necessary to
explain "plug-in hybrid" to most people. Instead we ask, "Have you've
seen ads for the Chevy Volt?" Then we say "That's a PHEV." Then, if
they want, we explain how they work and their benefits! We invite you
to watch a poetic, inspiring ode to the EV, "Renault. Drive the
Change." -- called by Plug In America's Paul Scott "the first ad of
what will become a steadily growing genre." It's just two minutes at
http://evsandenergy.blogspot.com/2010/01/first-of-new-wave-in-ev-adverts.html
or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRl_tbNfw3k .
CALCARS MEETS INITIAL GOALS: On October 21, in Detroit, we "declared
victory" on PHEVs -- see
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1078.html or listen at
http://www.calcars.org/audio-video.html#audiotag . Of course, we
still have lots to do to ensure this commercialization succeeds. A
vast informal network of local, regional and national coalitions
working with manufacturing, supplier and infrastructure companies has
emerged. They and we will do our parts.
WE STILL HAVE TO COMBAT MISINFORMATION. In a world where stray
comments gain instant credibility and mindshare, we see periodic
campaigns and isolated efforts to raise questions about vehicle
electrification. We still encounter those who think it's
business-as-usual for fossil fuels while we wait for some "technology
breakthroughs" or vast infrastructure. In fact, plug-ins, built with
today's batteries, charging mainly at home at night, can arrive as
fast as carmakers can build them. We still hear from those who,
intentionally or not, mistakenly position the strategy to "displace
petroleum with electricity" as a COMPETITOR instead of a COMPLEMENT
to essential efforts to conserve by improving conventional vehicles'
efficiency and reducing their use. We haven't heard the last from
advocates who propose vast expansions of liquid/gaseous fuels --
including natural gas, biofuels or hydrogen fuel cells -- as
alternatives rather than supplements to electricity.
And we've barely encountered the first volleys from fossil fuel
suppliers. Taken together, these companies are by far the world's
most powerful industry. They're also the most destructive and deadly,
factoring in all the consequences of extraction, production,
transportation and combustion, plus the impact on every nation's
public and private-sector integrity, economy, and national security.
With so many stakeholders waiting for any hiccup, false start or
overstatement, we all need to be ready to defend our strategy, whose
strengths are predicated on "solutions good enough to get started," a
transformed cleantech economy, and electricity's fundamental
advantages: "cleaner, cheaper, and domestic."
BUT NEW VEHICLES CAN'T GET US THERE QUICKLY ENOUGH! We're starting to
see a growing recognition that the world needs to adopt a
TRANSPORTATION EQUIVALENT to the established retrofit approach that's
such a no-brainer for buildings. Even the most optimistic scenarios
show only tens of millions of new plug-in vehicles globally in the
next 10-20 years -- tiny fraction of the more than one billion
vehicles we'll soon have. We see people beginning to recognize that
large vehicles in particular stay on the road for decades, so it
makes sense to "fix" gas guzzlers so they can plug in. Along with
other obvious low-hanging fruit like conservation steps and
installing low-cost black-carbon filters on diesel engines, these are
essential and realistic pathways. These approaches can advance
reduced fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions by a precious
decade, while creating tens of thousands of green jobs and
accelerating the expansion of the supply chain needed for the
long-term electrification of transportation.
CALCARS' NEW MISSION: While continuing to promote "Successful
Commercialization of PHEVS ASAP," CalCars' activities increasingly
focus on recruiting more advocates to the "Big Fix" -- our campaign
to convert a substantial portion of the vehicles already on the road
to EVs or PHEVs. We still encounter some wariness about the specific
technologies and expected costs to convert internal combustion
vehicles. This will change in three ways, just as it did in 2004-2006
for PHEVs: We'll get more convincing and compelling prototypes that
show what's possible. We'll see business models that work in high
volumes. And we'll help new coalitions emerge.
We can't do it ourselves. So we continue to recruit for a broad
campaign whose partners we'll soon announce. Organizations and
high-profile individuals can endorse it now -- see
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-bigfix-endorse.pdf .
DO YOU KNOW THAT GO-GETTER WHO WANTS TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
Twenty-five years ago, Steve Jobs famously recruited Pepsi executive
John Sculley to Apple by asking, "Do you want to sell sugar water all
your life or do you want a chance to change the world?" Recently, the
charismatic Shai Agassi built his vision for an EV solution at Better
Place. Similarly, we seek a well-healed, well-connected serial
entrepreneur with a background in autos, technology, or finance, to
accelerate the efforts of the startups gaining traction in the
gas-guzzler conversion space (many listed at
http://www.calcars.org/conversions.html and profiled at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-beyond-new-plug-ins.pdf ) and other
companies yet to appear. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for
that candidate to hit the ground running and transform today's
fledgling efforts into a profitable global industry whose conversion
designers, integrators, component suppliers, and installers will
offer green jobs, energy savings, operating cost reductions, and
environmental and energy security benefits.
CHANGES IN TODAY'S CONVERSION MINI-INDUSTRY: The small hybrid-to-PHEV
conversion companies that helped so much to increase PHEVs'
visibility and get them in the hands of utilities, government testing
labs and committed evangelizers can now set themselves new goals.
They can lower their selling prices via scale, gain government
approvals for their designs, and add warranties to position them to
sell to a million-plus hybrid car owners. By partnering with
suppliers, larger integration companies, and ultimately major
automakers, they can expand to the far larger market of drivers
looking to fix their non-hybrid internal combustion vehicles.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY EVENTS: We'll be spending two weeks at the end of
the month on the East Coast. In addition to some private events and
meetings in Boston and New York to promote the Big Fix, we'll first
be attending the Electric Drive Transportation's broad industry
Conference and Annual Meeting, January 26-28, held in conjunction
with the Washington DC Auto Show. See the full program and sign up at
http://electricdrive.org .
The following week, again in DC, I'm speaking on gas-guzzler
conversions at the Renewable Energy Technology Conference &
Exhibition http://www.retech2010.com/ organized by the American
Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). RETECH2010 includes 250 leaders
from industry and the administration, including presentations by key
officials in the Department of Energy, to over 5,000 attendees. We're
on the "Advanced Vehicles and Batteries" panel
http://www.retech2010.com/business-conference#B7 .
We encourage you to attend both events in DC. We'll soon update the
CalCars Events page with these and other events -- including
http://www.plugin2010.com July 26-29 in San Jose, CA. We'll also be
advancing our Big Fix agenda at the annual TED Conference in early
February in Long Beach, CA.
CALCARS AS AN ORGANIZATION: Our sustained effort for over eight years
by a small core group with growing concentric rings of advisors,
supporters and proponents has been a stunning success. CalCars-News
is currently received directly by over 7,000 subscribers in the auto
industry, government, and advocacy communities, and our comments are
amplified frequently by online, broadcast and print media. Yet just
as our original goals are being realized and we see growing
receptiveness to our new objectives, we lack the resources we need to
do more. At one peak time, in 2006-2008, we gained two years of
substantial support from Google.org. Over the years, we've received
modest contributions from individuals, other foundations, and a few
companies and utilities. But we've not received ANY federal or state
funds -- or funding from the venture capital community or the newly
funded startups that have benefited from our work. At the moment,
we're more "bare-bones" than we've ever been, essentially running on
fumes, cutting back on events where our costs aren't covered. While
this is personally difficult, especially for me and Ron (full-time
since 2001 and 2004 respectively), both of us are thankful to have
had the opportunity to engage in the most satisfying, effective, and
consequential work in our lives.
SUPPORT CALCARS: Privately we get frequent encouragement and praise
from individuals who say they are stretched to the limit and wish
they could support our efforts. (If your own financial position
allows, we could really use your tax-deductible contributions (even
in the $10-$100 range) at http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html .
VOLUNTEER AT CALCARS: Carol DiBenedetto was our able director of
projects and grantwriter in 2008-09, but we can't pay her again until
we raise money (!!) So we need a fundraising volunteer. We also
urgently need an able volunteer to position us in multiple social
networking channels. If you're interested in either of these or other
positions at http://www.calcars.org/jobs.html, please send an email
that includes the job title in the subject line, plus a thoughtful
cover letter, followed by a pasted copy of your resume, to jobs (at)
calcars.org. NO ATTACHMENTS, PLEASE, though URLs linking to more
information are fine.
THANKS AS ALWAYS FOR SPREADING THE WORD -- AND THANKS TO SOME
STANDOUTS: Ron and I want to thank some people in particular. Because
of their jobs at companies or in government or the media -- or their
temperaments -- many of our supporters must remain anonymous. And we
can't begin to list the many dozens more from
http://www.calcars.org/partners.html -- especially at utility, auto,
and conversion companies.
That said, thanks, alphabetically, to webmaster Michael Bender,
databaser Brad Beltane, senior advisors Randy Reisinger and Jim Hurd,
and to key advisors, promoters and co-thinkers including Jeff
Anderson, Frank Babbitt, Carl Berg, Jim Bernard, Chris Baldwin,
Lester Brown, Adam Browning, Pat Cadam, Carl Chow, Sam Cohen, Carolyn
Coquillette, Al Cormier, Doug Crowder, John Davi, Robbie Diamond,
Carol DiBenedetto, Carla Din, Leslie Dorosin, Roger Duncan, Bob
Epstein, Rich Feldman, David Alan Foster, Andy Frank, Tom Gage, Phil
Glatz, Jay Golden, KC Golden, Richard Goodman, Mike Granoff, Andy
Grove, Carl Guardino, James Hansen, Hal Harvey, Denis Hayes, David
Hearst, Bill Holmberg, Russell Hancock, Jay Inslee, Ron
Johnson-Rodriguez, Wade Jansen, Marguerite Jones, Daniel Kammen,
David Kaplan, Willett Kempton, Anne Korin, Andrew Lawton, Craig
Lewis, Gal Luft, Nick Magel, Steve Marshall, Gil Masters, Patrick
Mazza, Tom McCalmont, William McDonough, Ron Minsk, Dave Modisette,
David Morris, Ben Ovshinsky, Chris Paine, Sunil Paul, Charlotte Pera,
Wylie Plummer, Eric Powers, Joe Romm, Nick Rothman, Margaret Sanders,
Richard Schorske, Joel Serface, Dave Severns, Gail Slocum, Peter
Skinner, Sass Somekh, Chris Sorensen, Lee Stein, Laura Stuchinsky,
David Taggart, Matt Taylor, Sven Thesen, Ling Thio, Laney Thornton,
Jasna Tomic, David Turock, Tom Turrentine, Garth Ware, Jon
Wellinghoff, Jonas Weil, Nadine Weil, Greg Willey, John Wilner, Anne
Woods, Jane Woodward, James Woolsey, Andrew Zeif. Thanks to our
fiscal sponsor, INTERNATIONAL HUMANITIES CENTER: Dave DelGrosso, Dave
Sanders, Steve Sugarman.
FREQUENTLY PARTNERING ORGANIZATIONS: Thanks to these and many others
at: ELECTRIC AUTO ASSOCIATION: Jerry Asher, Will Beckett, Ron Freund,
Arthur Keller, Steven Lough, Jerry Pohorsky, Robert Seldon, Ed
Thorpe. FRIENDS OF THE EARTH/BLUEWATER NETWORK: Brent Blackwelder,
Norman Dean, Danielle Fugere, Russell Long, Sara Schedler. GOOGLE &
GOOGLE.ORG: Robyn Beavers, Dave Bercovich, Adam Borelli, Larry
Brilliant, Sergey Brin, Alec Brooks, Aimee Christensen, Greg Miller,
Kirsten Olsen, Larry Page, Alec Proudfoot, Siobhan Quinn, Dan
Reicher, Rolf Schreiber, Eric Schmidt, Linda Segre, Adam Smith, Karen
Padham Taylor, Bill Weihl. PLUG IN AMERICA: Sherry Boschert, Dan
Davids, Jay Friedland, Marc Geller, Linda Nicholes, Alexandra Paul,
Zan Dubin Scott, Paul Scott, Chelsea Sexton, Jeanne Trombly.
RAINFOREST ACTION NETWORK: Mike Brune, Sarah Connolly, Jodie van
Horn, Jennifer Krill, Nile Malloy. INTERNATIONALLY: Feng An, Ulf
Bossel, Vincent Dussault, Jacques Marlot, Matt Mathews, Miyuki Merry,
Teitur Torkelsson, Pedro Macanas Valverde, Akiko Yoshimoto.
PERSONALLY: for support and advice, we thank Tom Driscoll, Nancy
Frishberg, Deborah Kaufman, Josh Kramer, Rochelle Lefkowitz, Lynn
McAllister, Alan Snitow, Bob Weber. And we apologize for anyone we've
overlooked!
COMING SOON FROM CALCARS-NEWS: We're working on a number of postings
about: the Electrification Coalition report; promising legislation
for the postal service; analysis on the benefits of gas-guzzler
retrofits; and more specifics on the National Academy of Sciences
report, and strategies to advance the Big Fix campaign. If in the
flurry of holiday emails, you missed our last postings, you can go
back to them at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html . And follow
the many online publications doing such a great job of chronicling
the daily developments in the plug-in world at
http://www.calcars.org/partners.html#opb . Together we can make this
a memorable year!
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
INTRODUCTION: For your edification this long weekend: In this posting, we return
to address in greater detail the faulty assumptions underlying the conclusion by
the National Research Council's (NRC) fuel cell analyst team that it would be a
mistake to commit to plug-in vehicles because battery costs will remain high for
over a decade. This report has gained wide attention. And on the same day that
GM opened its new Michigan battery plant, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
released a study saying it would take decades for plug-ins to become competitive
without subsidies. We believe BOTH reports are mistaken and are already being
eclipsed by industry developments. Real-world information is already a step
ahead of their assumptions. Battery and auto manufacturers would not be spending
tens of billions of dollars on factories to support over a dozen new plug-in
vehicle models unless they saw a long-term path to low-cost, competitive
components. We back this up below with citations from multiple sources --
including just-in news of the first response from a National Lab to the NRC
report. We hope they will deter these reports' unquestioned acceptance by
journalists, analysts and legislators. Read to the end and you'll find our
explanation of how these studies affect the US Department of Energy's future
plans. And you'll see our call to some missing voices -- battery manufacturers
and automakers besides GM and Nissan -- to release some vital proprietary
information. Multiple constituencies need the full story to understand battery
economics and help shape public and private strategies. This is all-important as
priorities are being set in Washington and across the globe.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)
REMINDER ON OUR INITIAL RESPONSES: This posting goes beyond our December
"Plug-In Community Needs to Respond to Outdated/Biased NAS Report" on the
National Academy of Sciences/NRC document. (See other comments on our posting at
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/12/22/squaring-off-again-plug-in-advocates-respon\
d-to-anti-phev-repo/ and
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/12/plug-in-backers-say-recent-slow\
-growth-phev-report-has-hydrogen-bias.html .) And in three postings last April
(all found at http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html ) we and others
criticized BCG's report for the President's Automotive Task Force.
NRC CRITICISMS BOILED DOWN: Here we focus on just the central organizing
assumption they presume will dramatically limit EV and PHEV acceptance through
the next decade: high battery costs. Most notably, the reports say today's PHEV
battery packs can cost well over $1,000/kilowatt-hour. They see it taking 10
years for packs to drop from $1,000+ to the $400/kwh necessary to make
unsubsidized EVs and PHEVs competitive. Even by 2030, the NRC says the battery
premium for a Volt-like PHEV with a 40-mile range would still be over $10,000.
Anticipating that long before then, governments will stop providing the
$5-$10,000 subsidies necessary to sell cars with $15-$20,00 packs, they conclude
only a "battery breakthrough" or a quintupling of oil prices will motivate
consumers to buy plug-ins.
SHORTCOMINGS AND MISINTERPRETATIONS OF THEIR APPROACH: They limit expected price
reductions to the low rate expected for already-high-volume and already-cheap
laptop and mobile phone battery cells. They don't evaluate PHEVs with 10 or 20
mile ranges, which have much smaller batteries and very different economics than
PHEV-40s and all-electric vehicles. They don't count the cost savings from an
all-electric vehicle not including an internal combustion engine. And they don't
factor in the likelihood of an eventual cost to emit carbon - already an
assumption in much corporate long-range planning. Finally -- and fundamentally
-- they don't follow standard research procedures used in similar studies to
document their cost assumptions, look at cost sensitivities or conduct a
bottoms-up cost model. Add in all these flaws and ignore the results and reports
below, and we can see why they forecast EV and PHEV sales totaling a few million
by 2020 -- instead of the tens of millions that automakers already plan to build
and expect drivers to buy.
CLOSELY-HELD INFORMATION: It's hard to get battery pack pricing data. Each
battery manufacturer and automaker sees its costs as key to its competitiveness.
With some batteries selling at dramatically high retail prices, manufacturer
prefer to limit access to pricing forecasts for cells or packs in large volumes
to potential automotive customers. And since automotive batteries are not yet
mature products, price and performance continually evolve. With such competitive
pressures and rapid-fire changes, researchers and even governments are often
left with incomplete, inconsistent, out-of-date, or even erroneous price data.
LIMITED DISTRIBUTION EVEN OF PUBLIC INFORMATION: It's frustrating that many
useful insights are trapped behind firewalls that some conference organizers
short-sightedly enforce. They often limit distribution of presentations to those
who paid to attend their conferences. (We've often suggested they experiment to
see if they gain more attendees next time and achieve their broad goals more by
unlocking their gates.) Fortunately we have been able to glean much from reports
some authors choose to post online and from media reports.
MULTIPLE SOURCES FOR MORE REALITY-BASED DATA: Below, we've gathered information
from primary sources -- two automakers, and no battery manufacturers -- and
secondary sources including electric utility organizations, independent advocacy
groups, and academic research cited or commissioned by government agencies. We
cover the implications of the information we have gathered, then challenge
industry players, including battery manufacturers, to release some of their
proprietary pricing data. They will ultimately benefit through more support for
plug-in vehicle incentives, building demand, and thereby expanding the
marketplace for all players. We start with extracts from some reports that
directly rebut the NRC:
AUTOMAKERS: GM TO AUTOBLOG GREEN: BATTERIES ALREADY CHEAPER THAN REPORTS'
FORECASTS: "There do appear to be some holes in the new [NRC] study. For
example, the study cites a current cost of $1,000-1,200 per kWh for automotive
lithium ion batteries. That figure may be as much double the actual cost if
General Motors is to be believed. When we spoke with Denise Grey and Jon
Lauckner from GM this week they both hinted that the Volt battery was actually
in the $500-600/kWh range now and they expect this number to drop."
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/01/08/study-battery-electric-vehicles-unlikely-to\
-be-cost-competitive/ . "Grey tells [AutoBlogGreen] GM is working closely with
suppliers to cost optimize all of the pack's components and hopes to hit the US
Advanced Battery Consortium target of $300/kWh by 2015."
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/01/07/general-motors-builds-first-volt-battery-pa\
ck-on-production-line/ . (Note: these figures and those below refer to actual
available energy -- 8 kwh, not 16 kwh, in the case of the Volt.)
GM TO CNN: NRC'S BLOATED ESTIMATES: "GM spokesman Rob Peterson called the NRC's
estimates of battery cost 'bloated,' saying the Volt's battery would cost much
less than that. Battery costs will also come down quickly, he said. 'Our
starting point, which already costs much less than they estimate, is just the
first step,' he said."
http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/15/autos/nrc_plug-in_hybrid_report/
AUTOMAKERS: NISSAN/RENAULT CEO CARLOS GHOSN BETS HEAVILY ON PLUG-INS: "Ghosn is
so sure the vision will work that he's building factories to assemble 500,000
EVs a year -- 10 times more units than General Motors Co. is planning to make of
its Volt hybrid." And (talking about battery cell, not pack costs): "[Deutsche
Bank AG analyst in New York Rod Lache] predicts that high-volume manufacturing
will cut battery costs -- now $650 per kilowatt-hour -- in half by 2020. Ghosn
says costs will fall faster. He's working on batteries with twice the range of
Leaf's and has teamed up with Sumitomo Corp. to sell used batteries that can no
longer withstand automotive requirements but can store power for utilities.
[thereby effectively bringing down battery prices for the consumer]" From a long
and comprehensive review by Bloomberg reporters John Lippert, Kae Inoue and
Laurence Frost
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJEVrzt2t.8o&pos=11 . And as
Nissan arranges for billions of dollars in financing to lease its batteries for
EVs, it has worked with financiers whose due diligence looks at proprietary
cost, reliability, and longevity data unavailable even to the NRC and BCG. The
total Nissan-Renault investment is over $6 billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601090&sid=a0vDcOKdXYoM .
ARGONNE NATIONAL LAB EXPLAINS HOW SCALE AFFECTS BATTERY COSTS: In what looks
like the most detailed analysis to date, "Factors Determining the Manufacturing
Costs of Lithium- Ion Batteries for PHEVs," Paul A. Nelson and Danilo J. Santini
from Argonne National Laboratory and James Barnes, battery expert at the US
Department of Energy, in May 2009 project the mass production costs to the
vehicle manufacturer at $255/kwh for a PHEV-20 and $210/kwh for a PHEV 40 (table
p.6). The authors go on the say, "The cost estimates in this study assume a
stable rate of pack manufacture at a high rate of 100,000 packs/yrIf the plants
were designed for [only] 10,000 battery packs per year, a reasonable production
level for the first year for both a new battery pack design and a new vehicle,
then the unit costs for the batteries would be approximately 60 to 80% higher.
If, in addition, the plants were designed to be expanded for future production
or the plant equipment was amortized over a shorter period to allow for the
uncertainty of future orders (discontinuous production), the unit battery prices
would be even higher. Thus, the low production rates anticipated for initial
production of the batteries creates serious per-vehicle battery cost barriers
that must be subsidized either by vehicle manufacturers or governments in order
to achieve a viable long-term PHEV battery market." (p.9) The paper was
delivered at EVS-24, May 2009 in Norway; it's found at
http://www.cars21.com/files/papers/Nelson-Santini-Barnes-paper.pdf
(Along the same lines, but not from the Argonne studies: The NRC report
indicated that Li-ion batteries are already in high volume production for laptop
computers and cell phones, so their costs are unlikely to fall rapidly. It did
not mention that, while laptop and cell phone cells have become commodities
selling at fairly stable prices as low as $200/kWh, cells for plug-in vehicles
are quite different and are still produced in low volumes at prices that are far
above materials costs, with a lot of room to fall rapidly.)
MORE AS WE WENT TO PRESS: (as they used to say) As we were about to post this,
we saw "Cost-Effective PHEV Range: Battery Costs Versus Charging Infrastructure
Costs," a presentation to the Transportation Research Board's Annual Meeting,
"Investing in Our Transportation Future -- BOLD Ideas to Meet BIG Challenges,"
on January 12 by Argonne's D.J. Santini. This may be the first response we've
seen from a government entity comparing the NRC study to Lab and other studies.
(And it happens to have been presented to another branch of the NRC!) Slides
include ones titled, "Battery Cost Estimates are Hard to Compare. Many Factors
Influence Our $/kWh vs. NAS & Others" and "The Recent Incremental PHEV and E-REV
Price Increases Estimated by Argonne CTR Staff Are Well Below those of the NAS."
We encourage journalists to request the study from TRB or Argonne. (A PDF of
last year's presentation by Santini is available for $25.) And we hope a version
of this talk will soon be online at no charge from one or the other place.
THE NRC MAY NOT HAVE NOTED CARB'S CONCLUSIONS: The California Air Resource
Board's Zero Emission Vehicles Review led to a White Paper in November 2009.
From its detailed appendix, "Status of ZEV Technology Commercialization,"
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/2009zevreview/attachment_a_tsd.pdf , based
on multiple studies, we highlight four key points:
1. Cites its commissioned study by TIAX that, with volume production, battery
pack prices for PHEVs will reach $340-$400/kwh in the time period ending 2015
(p. 17). 2. Tesla Motors already buys laptop cells for $200 per kWh and in a
costly and time-consuming procedure, carefully packages them for EVs. As they
mechanize and expand this procedure, their EV packs will come in under $400/kwh.
(pp. 17-18) 3. From ARB surveys: "Some automakers reported PHEV and BEV
near-term, moderate volume costs would be on the order of $500-$600 /kWhr, with
evolutionary changes and moderate volume production 'next generation' design
changes necessary before costs move further down into the $400-500/ kWhr range."
(p. 19) 4. Finally, the section concludes: "No automaker has stated that current
design, or even next generation Li Ion batteries, will achieve sufficiently low
cost to make them competitive with conventional vehicles without ongoing
government incentives and/or tax credits. Several automakers do, however,
believe that Li Ion battery systems will evolve sufficiently to allow automakers
to sell cost competitive PHEVs and BEVs sometime prior to 2020" (p.25)
THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY VIEW: The Electric Power Research Institute has
been centrally involved in plug-in vehicle development for more than a decade.
With the Natural Resources Defense Council, EPRI produced the authoritative
"Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles" in 2007. Now
"Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Promise, Issues and Prospects" is by Fritz R.
Kalhammer (battery expert and longtime consultant to EPRI and government
agencies), Haresh Kamath, Mark Duvall, Mark Alexander (Project Manager, Director
of Electric Transportation, and Project Manager, respectively at EPRI), and
Bryan Jungers (researcher at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies).
They concur with the Argonne Labs projection that $200-$400/kwh battery packs
are feasible with technology now available. And they conclude, "investments in
HEVs and PHEVs with mass-produced Li Ion batteries promise to pay back within
the nominal 10-15 year lifetime of a vehicle, even at today's driving energy
(fuel and electricity) prices and vehicle efficiencies.These conclusions hold
without invoking longer- term economic incentives for PHEVs and/or penalties for
excess CO2 emissions from conventional vehicles. However, such incentives and
penalties will be instrumental in helping to offset the higher costs of
batteries produced at lower rates during the introduction of PHEVs." That
careful statement is on p. 6; the chart on p. 7 shows a PHEV-40 having an
even-better near-term payback of 10.5 years and a few years out, 4 years. This
EVS-24 paper can be found at
http://steps.ucdavis.edu/People/bdjungers/Plug-In%20Hybrid%20Electric%20Vehicles\
%20-%20Promise,%20Issues,%20and%20Prospects.pdf . We hope to hear more from EPRI
soon.
ADVOCATES: The Electrification Coalition has taken the lead in pointing to flaws
in the NRC study: find links at to its press release and fact sheet at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php . The Washington Post published
EC CEO Robbie Diamond's response to its over-the-top editorial; his letter said
in part, "the NRC seems to ignore these economies of scale. The NRC has done
much important work over the years. In this case, however, its assumptions are
badly out of line with industry and government estimates, and its conclusions --
and unfortunately, those of the Post editorial that relied on them -- suffer as
well." Its reply at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-response-to-nrc.php says, "The NRC
study significantly overestimates current battery costs, placing them out of
line with published research by DOE National Laboratories, exhaustive research
by auto-industry analysts and current industry experience." It cites conclusions
from its own comprehensive "Electrification Roadmap" that, "Based on current and
expected industry costs, a PHEV-40 will be cost effective for consumers in 2015
-- without any government subsidy whatsoever."
FILLING IN THE MISSING PIECES
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE DOE, WHICH COMMISSIONED THE NRC STUDY? The Department of
Energy has much data internally and from its national labs that conflicts with
this report. But it has not reacted publicly even as the report's consequences
circulate mostly unchallenged in the media and in Congress. Outside parties can
help DOE validate its commitment to electrification and continue to sponsor
research grants, loan guarantees, ARPA-E, and the US-China EV Initiative. With
more data on the jobs and environmental impacts, DOE can catalyze volume
purchases of both new vehicles and conversions of much of its existing military,
civilian, and postal service fleet. These programs will in turn accelerate
technology development and volume production -- leading to further cost
reductions for batteries and other components.
WAITING IN THE WINGS: We're hoping that battery manufacturers -- the key primary
source -- will weigh in over the next few weeks, along with automakers other
than GM and Nissan. In 2009, 14 U.S. companies formed the National Alliance for
Advanced Transportation Batteries. They and many others are committing billions
of dollars to this effort because they think they'll soon be selling their
product in the millions of units. While citing their confidence that costs are
declining, that batteries are lasting longer than ever, and that carmakers can
draw down more than the 50% of the available energy used by GM's Volt, these
companies have volunteered little data, though some have said privately that
they are willing to respond if asked.
MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BATTERY COMPANIES: These companies strenuously
work to remain friends with everyone as they aggressively expand their
businesses, gain customers, and compete on rapidly improving technology. Even
understanding that, our fond hope zeroes in on the very first session of the
Electric Drive Transportation Association Conference in Washington. It's aptly
named, "Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles: Manufacturing Challenges and
Opportunities" http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/13921/pid/13921
.
ON JANUARY 27, we urge the CEOs, founders and top executives from leading
suppliers Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Solutions A123 Systems, Ener1,
Inc. Electrovaya, and Compact Power each to take five minutes to compare the
NRC's outlook to the mid-term prospects for their batteries' performance and
cost in mass production. We urge them as well to release their slide shows to
the general public -- not just to industry insider attendees at the conference.
If they do, they'll help ensure the expansion of their entire industry. They'll
earn the thanks of all those working to accelerate the electrification of
transportation. And you'll hear about it from us!
COMMUNICATE YOUR VIEWS! We encourage readers to review the reports we source.
Contact anyone you know at plug-in focused car and battery companies; encourage
them to take this opportunity to contribute to the discussion. And send a
pointer to this posting, which will be at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1087.html , plus your comments to print and
online media and your elected officials. Include your views on accelerating our
nation's commitment to support the production and deployment of new and
converted plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles. Thanks for all you're doing!
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
To understand many of the most critical issues that face the auto industry, read
the new report by the Electrification Coalition: "Electrification Roadmap:
Revolutionizing Transportation and Achieving Energy Security." It summarizes and
analyzes almost everything: the reasons we need to electrify transportation; the
way the auto industry is now organized, and the impact of its reliance on
petroleum; every aspect of the electrification solution, including technologies,
manufacturers, suppliers; and national and international government policies.
Most important of all, it outlines a way to accelerate a transition so that by
2040, 75% of light-duty (cars/SUVs, small trucks) vehicle miles travelled can be
electric. (At the same time, though its focus was on new light-duty vehicles,
CalCars believes it reinforces the case that if its strategy is paired with
conversion of existing gas-guzzlers, we can get significant benefits far
sooner.) Its authors and "blue-chip" corporate coalition members deserve all of
our thanks. We invite you to request a PDF of the report or a printed copy at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/electrification-roadmap.php and mak sure
it's on the radar screen of thought-leaders, elected officials, and the media.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)
If you get this report and at least scan every one of its 170 pages and more
than 75 charts and tables, fully reading those where you realize you haven't
thought about its points, you'll end up an expert -- and a far more effective
advocate. Start at http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php with a
punchy 30-second "Revolutionize" ad -- and a request for the URL to download the
report.
BACKGROUND ABOUT SAFE: The organizing of the Electrification Coalition and the
Roadmap are the most recent major accomplishment of Securing America's Future
Energy http://www.secureenergy.org , the Washington-based policy group founded
by Robbie Diamond. Way back in 2005, and again in 2007, SAFE sponsored a
pioneering series of "Oil Shockwave" simulations with former and future
government officials playing cabinet officers responding to crises. A transition
to plug-in cars emerged as an urgent priority. Then SAFE formed the Energy
Security Leadership Council, bringing together corporate leaders and retired
military commanders. Its two reports on energy security helped advance policy
discussions and legislation in 2007-2009. Now the Electrification Coalition's
analysis and proposals can send their own shockwaves around the world.
TIME TO MAKE CHOICES: Until now, PHEVS and EVs were one of many recommendations
from SAFE and ESLC. The new Electrification Coalition -- founding members
include the leadership of Aerovironment, A123Systems, Bright, Coda, Coulomb,
Fedex, Gridpoint, Johnson Controls, Kleiner Perkins, Nissan, NRG, PG&E, and
Rockwood Holdings -- has taken a dramatic step beyond the traditional ecumenical
approach. Every Member of Congress needs to hear why EC says it's time to make
some choices: we no longer have the luxury to devote scarce attention, time, and
resources to less promising solutions. They say it elegantly:
"Current federal policy provides support to a range of fuels designed to
displace petroleum as the dominant fuel in the U.S. transportation system.
Electrification offers the fuel diversity, price stability, and emissions
benefits needed to meaningfully increase U.S. energy security. Instead of
scattered, inconsistent federal support for a wide variety of alternatives, what
is required is a coherent, focused strategy designed to radically drive down oil
consumption in the light-duty fleet. Part of this strategy must be the
acknowledgement that other alternatives, while having value, cannot ultimately
revolutionize America's light-duty fleet and end oil dependence." (p.13 and 51)
COMPARE WITH EDTA'S JUST-RELEASED REPORT: This report can be looked at along
with The Electric Drive Transportation Association's eight-page "Policy Action
Plan 2010" http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/15237/pid/15237 ,
released in time for its Green Car Summit policy session today on Capitol Hill
and its conference Weds-Fri (see http://www.calcars.org/events.html ).
EC ROADMAP: CLIFF NOTES VERSION: In an effort to motivate thousands of readers
to spend time on this report, and equip you to use its information and
proposals, we offer our considered selection of highlights. We have picked out
what we see as the most important or said-nowhere else analytic points and given
you the page citations for each. We don't focus as much on the recommendations,
which are presented throughout the report and at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-launch.php . We highlight some
items where we see things differently as well, and where we think the strategy
can expand to gas-guzzler conversions.
SUMMARY: & I. THE CASE FOR ELECTRIFICATION:
* VEHICLE CATEGORIES: Cars and light duty trucks (the focus of the report)
together account for 46% of U.S. oil use. On the other hand, combined
differently, light, medium, and heavy trucks -- the vehicles best suited for
conversions -- are 33%. (10 -- figure EC):
* NOMENCLATURE: "GEV" -- Grid-Enabled Vehicles -- is how the EC adopts to refer
to PHEVs and EVs. And an "Electric Miles" concept bridges the gap between PHEVs
and EVs and enables apple-to-apple comparisons. Though GEVs says more, it's up
against "plug-in vehicles." Electric Miles could be widely adopted. (13)
* VOLUME CUTS COSTS: Battery prices will fall as manufacturers scale to
production volumes over 100,000/year. This can happen if car makers get the
incentives to change their vehicle types faster than on the usual 5-7 year cycle
-- and even sooner if gas-guzzler conversions become popular quickly. (14)
* COMPETITIVE TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: With the $7,500 incentive, PHEVs already
have a lower lifetime TCO than ICEs (internal combustion engine vehicles) (15)
* LOW VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED/PETROLEM REDUCTIONS UNTIL ABOUT 2025: We discuss
this several times later in the detailed sections. (17)
* ECOSYSTEM STRATEGY: a "phased ecosystem" approach, focusing incentives on
these areas, optimizes the adoption process. (18)
* HIGH AND VOLATILE OIL PRICES are no longer "transitory" -- multiple factors
make them "structural," (25), especially demand from developing nations (27).
* EVEN AT CURRENT OIL PRICES: the costs of dependence can't be sustained, and
the external costs aren't reflected in the market prices. (29)
* 12-15% OF DEFENSE BUDGET FOR OIL: A 2009 RAND Corp study pegged the cost at
$60-$90B/year. (30)
* ECONOMIC CAUSE & EFFECT? A provocative chart shows oil prices spiked before
every recession over the last 35 years. (33)
* $600 BILLION/YEAR DAMAGE: oil dependency's impact on US economy, as estimated
by Oak Ridge National Lab. (33)
* TRANSPORTATION & CLIMATE CHANGE: greatest opportunities for emissions
reductions. (The report points out that the stock of cars "turns over" faster
than power plants or buildings, but pegs their lifetimes at 10 years, which is
too low. This leads the analysts to have reduced interest in ICE conversions.
U.S. DOT data show lifetimes closer to 17 years after multiple owners. (35--see
more at 45 and 125-126)
* PRIORITY TO LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES: emphasizes this doesn't preclude steps for
medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (which have longer lifetimes), but doesn't focus
on them (as does CalCars). (36)
* "GIVE US BACK THE REINS:" We like this turn of phrase for how to diversify and
regain control over fuels for transportation. (37)
* ELECTRICITY HAS BEEN GETTING CHEAPER: Surprisingly, its price in real terms
has declined since 1983. Importantly for future projections, the fuel for
electricity is a lower percentage of the fuel's retail cost than is crude oil
compared to retail gasoline! (39)
* $10,000 LESS LIFETIME TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: Cites URL for an EPRI 2008
briefing showing the numbers. (40)
* "IMPORT ELECTRICITY'S BENEFITS INTO CARS" is a way of looking at converting
power generation and transportation . (41)
* MEDIAN AGE OF CARS IS 9.7 YEARS: Here we draw different conclusions. The
"median" is the mid-point (same number of cars younger and older; the longer
"mean" average is more important), and both need to take into account how much
fuel short- and long-lived vehicles use. The paragraph goes on to say that
ONE-THIRD OF CARS are still on the road after 33 years. The authors acknowledge
"the challenge: deploying GEVs in quantities sufficient to displace a large
fraction of U.S. oil consumption will take decades." Here's where we believe the
logic points to gas-guzzler retrofits. (45; see also p. 125)
* MARKET PENETRATION SCENARIOS: Even if the report's first milestones (25% of
new vehicles by 2020) are reached, GEVs will then amount to only 5.3% of the
total fleet. (46)
* IT WILL TAKE THE END OF BUSINESS AS USUAL TO GET THERE: The EC distinguishes
between goals and forecasts. (48)
* WE NEED A GAS TAX, BUT... Because gasoline is so cheap in the U.S., a tax
would have the biggest impact, but short of that, the nation and the government
need to choose electrification "as a dominant national strategy." (49).
* THREE REASONS TO CHOOSE ELECTRICITY: first, a sound way to transform
transportation; along the way, second, we fix the power generation sector;
third, we create the next global manufacturing industry and create jobs in the
U.S. (50)
* NATURAL GAS ALTERNATIVE? Use it in power plants for GEVs instead of fuel for
engines and you get TWICE the miles. (52)
* HYDROGEN "is much more expensive than electricity, and likely always will be."
(52)
* US COULD BE LEFT BEHIND if we don't commit to electrify our vehicles. (54)
* HISTORY LESSON: Five concise pages recap the Clinton-Era Partnership for a New
Generation of Vehicles, the Zero Emissions Mandate and EVs of the late 90s in
California., (55-60), then the incentive and loan programs of 2007-2009 (61-63).
* CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION: Reviews the many positive provisions in the
American Clean Energy & Security Act (Waxman-Markey) passed by the House in
2009, noting that it stops short of committing to electrification as a dominant
strategy. (63)
II. CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES:
* PRIMER ON HYBRID TECHNOLOGIES & BATTERIES from Japan and the U.S. (68-78)
* NO SHORTAGE OF LITHIUM: explanation and sources, including the pithy
explanation of why lithium dependence is unlike oil dependence: "we do not
deplete batteries as we drive, we deplete the energy stored within them."
(79-84)
* OTHER METALS AND RARE EARTH METALS briefly explored. (85)
* DECLINING BATTERY COSTS AS VOLUME RISES: Citations of multiple studies showing
price trends, some of which we highlighted in our last posting to CalCars-News,
"Rebuttals to Flawed National NAS Report -- and Challenge to Battery Industry,"
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1087.html . (86)
* SCALING ISSUES APPLY TO OTHER COMPONENTS & MANUFACTURING FACILITIES: The right
way to do this is to address every part of the supply chain. (88)
* PRIMER ON CHARGING & INFRASTRUCTURE: Of course, far less critical for PHEVs
than EVs. (90-98) Retells the important Tokyo Electric story showing consumers
may need reassurance more than chargers everywhere. (97)
* SMART METERS ON THE WAY: 40 million will be deployed in the U.S. by 2015
(California requires full retrofit by 2012). (103)
* GEVS: ICONIC SYMBOL OF THE SMART GRID and its leading edge. (104)
* VEHICLE-TO-GRID IN 4TH GENERATION GEVS: other than demonstration programs, V2G
is many years away. (106)
* CONSUMERS WANT 3-YEAR PAYBACKS: The writers may over-emphasize (as do many
journalists and industry analysts) how many consumers do the math on vehicle
economics. (Better Place, and Nissan with battery leasing, as well as declining
battery costs in general, may change the paradigms). (108-109)
* NEWER, BETTER INFO ON AVERAGE DAILY VEHICLE TRIP LENGTHS: Most previous
reports have been based on 2001 data (shown on page 123). Very informative
charts based on 2009 data. (111)
* 40 MILLION USED CARS SOLD ANNUALLY: These present a great opportunity to "fix"
cars that have lost much of their value -- especially those with low MPG. (113)
* CHART ON VEHICLE MIX: graphically shows how the percentages of cars, wagons,
pickups, vans and SUVs have changed 1975-2008. (114)
III. ANALYSIS OF THE GOAL
* 13 MILLION GEVS/YEAR MANUFACTURING CAPACITY BY 2020 is one goal of the EC's
strategy.(116)
* GEVS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT FOR 15 YEARS: Looking at vehicle miles travelled,
the ramp-up will be slow. (124)
* CARS AND TRUCKS STAY ON THE ROAD FOR MANY YEARS: Returning to the topic on p.
45, the authors show that more durable light trucks last longer than cars: 40%
are on the road after 15 years. (text and charts 125-126)
* BY 2030, GEVS CAN BE 40% OF THE FLEET: cumulatively saving $3.7 trillion --
far more than the cost of any conceivable incentive programs. (127)
* GEV COMPONENT COST BREAKOUTS: Descriptions and projections from the EC's
technical advisors, PRTM Management Consultants. (130)
* UPFRONT COSTS DECLINE SHARPLY for PHEVs, including the tax credit; cheaper
than ICEs starting in 2014. (131)
* OPERATING COST ADVANTAGES OF GEVS: And the assumptions behind TCO
calculations. (132)
* WHY A GAS TAX MAKES SENSE: Returning to the topic from p. 49, a full page on
the reasons. The United Kingdom's tax of $3.28/gallon is almost 20x that of our
federal tax of 18.4 cents (133)
IV. STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT:
* 120 MILLION GEVS ON THE ROAD IN 2030: The EC's plan is an order of magnitude
larger than the US Energy Information Administration's April 2009 projection of
4.3 million. (139)
* DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS: PROVEN MODEL: Successful government boosts to
commercialize technologies go all the way back to Samuel Morse's telegraph
system in 1834. (140)
* FEDERAL FLEETS CAN LEAD THE WAY: Executive Orders to date have not been
effective. (145)
* HIGHER TAX CREDITS IN ELECTRIFICATION EOSYSTEMS: A strategy to maximize
impact. (148)
* REBATES AT TIME OF PURCHASE will be far more effective than tax credits. (149)
* 70% LESS CO2 IN TRANSPORTATION: The program outlined would have a large impact
by 2040 even with today's electric generation mix. (153)
* PAY FOR ENTIRE PROGRAM FROM ONE YEAR OF OIL SAVINGS: The full cost of all
proposals is less than the $600B of oil dependence costs to our economy in 2008.
(153)
APPENDIX I: INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR ELECTRIFICATION:
* INVALUABLE COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY SUMMARIES: Israel, Denmark, UK, Germany, France,
Spain, Austria, Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Japan. (154-157)
* CHINA IMPLEMENTING ECOSYSTEM STRATEGY IN 13 LARGEST CITIES: an extended
discussion of its strategies to maintain global manufacturing dominance.
(158-159)
APPENDIX II; STATE OF THE GLOBAL EV INDUSTRY
* COMPANY-BY-COMPANY SUMMARIES: AUTOMAKERS: GM, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan-Renault,
Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Hyundai, BYD, China's T10 Daimler, BMW,
Volkwagen, Volvo, Tesla, Th!nk, Fisker, Coda, Bright. BATTETRY MANUFACTURERS:
Johnson Controls, A123, Dow Kokam, Panasonic, Samsung, NEC, BYD, Evonik.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Better Place, ECOtality, Coulomb, Clipper Creek, Shore Power,
Elektromotive. POWER SECTOR INTERFACE: Gridpoint and others. (160-170)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
As a kid, seeing postal trucks drive, stop,turn off, restart, or drive, stop,
and drive, first put the idea in my head that idling didn't make sense,
especially for delivery vehicles. The USPS has had several unsuccessful
experiments with EVs. Finally a savvy coalition is coming together to do it
right. It starts with "e-Drive," H.R. 4399, a bill recently introduced by NY
Rep. Jose Serrano with bipartisan co-sponsors, and a just-unveiled website to
build a support campaign. (Rep. Serrano is Chairman of the House Appropriations
Financial Services and General Government subcommittee, which oversees the
federal payment to the USPS.) Notably, the measure includes not only new plug-in
vehicles but also conversions of many of its existing local delivery vehicles --
those compact trucks built by Grumman, nearing the end of their life unless they
get an energy boost. At a time when Japan has committed to convert 1/4 of its
22,000-vehicle fleet to Electric, and when Ruth Goldway, the Chair of the US
Postal Regulatory Commission has become a strong advocate of plug-ins, the U.S.
has the opportunity to prove what's possible with its 142,000 LLVs. We'll be
talking about this effort next week (see http://www.calcars.org/events.html ).
Below are some excerpts from the website at http://www.edrive.org -- a blog
introduction, legislative sponsors, and endorsements by the heads of PRC, FERC,
the postal workers union, and PJM, the grid interconnection organization for 13
states and Washington, DC.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)
FROM THE BLOG by founders Erik Toomre and Joy Leong http://www.edrive.org/blog
Thank you for visiting the site. As you probably know already, this site is
dedicated to providing information about the bipartisan proposed American
Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Act or "e-Drive" bill introduced as H.R. 4399 on
December 16, 2009. We would like to encourage you to register here at the
e-Drive.org website. Not only will you be able to post comments on any of the
blogs, but also it will give us a way to reach you with additional information
about the e-Drive bill.
The e-Drive bill would provide up to $2 billion for an Energy Department program
in which vehicle manufacturers would compete for grants to build electric
vehicles for immediate deployment by the U.S. Postal Service, operator of the
nations largest civilian fleet. Besides the environmental benefits and vast fuel
savings the program would achieve, the bills passage would also position the
Postal Service fleet as a key energy storage asset for the nations power grid.
Through Smart Grid technologies, new and converted electric postal vehicles
would serve as power storage devices for the grid, helping ease peak loads and
storing energy from intermittent or fluctuating sources, like wind power
systems.
There are two Phases of the e-Drive program. Phase I lasts 3.5 years and
involves a highly competitive solicitation for electric vehicles (EVs), Plug-in
Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and electric and PHEV powertrains for
conversions. The best performing solution(s) are rewarded with a large Phase II
contract. Each phase procures approximately 10,000 electric drive vehicles (or
powertrains that are used in conversions of existing LLVs) and 12,000 charging
stations.
Publicity about the e-Drive bill is growing. In the next two weeks, two events
are scheduled in which speakers will have comments about the e-Drive bill:
* Ruth Goldway, Chairman of the Postal Regulatory Commission will be speaking at
the EDTA (Electric Drive Transportation Association) Conference and Annual
Meeting for the Panel Session: Electric Does It (Part 1): Electric Drive at Work
and Off-Road on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 from 1:30pm-3:00pm in Washington DC.
* Felix Kramer, Founder of the California Cars Initiative will be speaking at
the RETECH 2010 conference, co-hosted by American Council On Renewable Energy
(ACORE) for the Panel Session: B7: Advanced Vehicles and Batteries on Friday,
February 5, 2010 from 1:30pm-3:00pm in Washington DC.
We expect a lot more coverage in the press and as word gets out within the
industry. We look forward to your support. Please send us your questions by
making a blog comment (registration required) and we'll try to address them
through additions to the FAQs or via a future blog article.
BILL SUMMARY
http://www.edrive.org/sites/default/files/012110%20E-Drive_hr4339_summary.pdf
(see also chart at
http://www.edrive.org/sites/default/files/012110%20E-drive-hr4339-graphic.pdf
E-Drive Bill -- HR 4399 Electrification of the Postal Fleet
USPS operates the largest commercial fleet in the country with 142,000 local
delivery vehicles. These "LLV" model vehicles average 9 MPG, have an average age
of 17 years, and need to be replaced or retrofit in the near future. The fleet
is an ideal test bed for large scale electrification because of its predictable
routes, frequent stops and starts, range of weather and terrain conditions, and
high visibility. Post offices could provide the public easy access to EV
charging stations.
The E-Drive bill provides $2 billion to fund electrification of 20,000 postal
delivery vehicles over 3 years. It builds upon the $2.4 billion investment in
American battery and electric vehicle component manufacturing capacity in 2009.
The industry is now at the point where it needs a major customer to provide
demand for large scale deployment. With strong Buy American provisions, the bill
will create high-paying American jobs and help revitalize the automotive
industry as it shifts from internal combustion engines to electric drive.
The E-Drive bill addresses national security concerns by reducing our dependence
on oil imports. Seventy percent of the oil consumed in 2008 went to the
transportation sector. The E-Drive bill will prove that wide scale deployment of
EVs is not only possible but desirable, and thus accelerate the nation's
movement toward alternative fuels.
Electrification of the postal fleet will reduce carbon emissions of the
country's largest fleet by up to 75% and lower annual fuel purchases by hundreds
of millions of dollars.
The E-Drive program capitalizes on both the Department of Energy's expertise in
batteries and electric vehicles and the Postal Service's experience in fleet
management. The bill:
* Has two phases: (1) production, deployment, and assessment of 10,200 vehicles
and 12,000 charging stations, and (2) subsequent award of 10,000 vehicles and
12,000 charging stations for the best solution(s) of Phase 1.
* Emphasizes competition among suppliers and between technologies, without
dictating a winning technology. Areas of interest include: "off the shelf"
e-Trucks, new highly efficient e-LLVs; PHEVs; new all-electric and PHEV
powertrains for conversions of existing LLVs; and charging stations.
* Lays the foundation for smart grid infrastructure by setting standards,
funding seven regional deployments across the nation, and building teams of
power companies, ISOs, aggregators, and fleet operators. The batteries in the
test fleet will make intermittent alternative energy sources, like wind, more
valuable by enabling connection to the grid at night.
HOUSE SPONSORS: http://www.edrive.org/congressionalsponsors
JOSE SERRANO (D-NY): "The e-Drive bill is a bold step to help the USPS achieve
sustainability from an operational standpoint. It also will help them lead the
greening of our nation's delivery fleets and jump-start the electric vehicle
industry in the U.S. Through a rigorous testing and competitive grant process,
administered by the Department of Energy, manufacturers, large and small, will
compete to bring their leading-edge technologies to the market. The industry
will grow stronger as a result -- creating knowledge, deploying new
technologies, and producing quality American jobs. Our nation must become a
leader in green technologies and leveraging the enormous assets of the USPS
provides us with a direct route toward that goal."
"Our nation is ready to support an electric vehicle fleet. Our power grid would
benefit, our industrial base would benefit, our environment would benefit, and
under this approach, the USPS, as well as its employees and customers, would
benefit. Its a win-win situation all around. I look forward to passing this bill
with my allies in Congress, and the support of the public and private sectors.
LEE TERRY (R-NE): "This legislation will provide a much-needed boost to the
development and use of electric drive vehicles on a nation-wide scale. It will
stimulate private sector investment in electric drive vehicles, powertrains and
new battery technologies. It also addresses Smart Grid integration through new
Vehicle-to-Grid technologies. I look forward to working with my colleague, Mr.
Serrano, on this forward-thinking approach to less dependence on fossil fuels
and reducing emissions from mobile sources."
RUSS CARNAHAN (D-MO): "By supplying new, more efficient electric vehicles built
right here in the United States we reduce fuel costs for the struggling Postal
Service and jolt American clean-energy manufacturing, creating jobs here at
home."
DAN MAFFEI, (D-NY): "This bill will spur American electric vehicle production,
creating manufacturing jobs and moving us toward a green economy. Central New
York is a leader in green technology innovation, and I am confident our region
will contribute to the e-Drive program's success."
STEVE ISRAEL (D-NY): "The United States Postal Service maintains the largest
civilian vehicle fleet in the world with about 221,000 vehicles in service. By
converting to a greener electric fleet we will be using the purchasing power of
the federal government to spur innovation, create new green jobs and reduce
energy costs for the postal service. I've worked with Congressman Serrano on
demonstration projects using these vehicles in New York and I am proud to
continue to work with him on the e-Drive bill."
CHARLES A. GONZALEZ (D-TX): "As world leaders convene at the UN Climate
Conference to find ways to reduce global carbon emissions, we are doing our part
here with the introduction of 'e-Drive'. Homes in America are visited by the
USPS six days a week, and it only makes sense that we find a green alternative
to one of the largest delivery fleets. With e-Drive we can lessen our dependence
on fossil fuels, reduce our carbon emissions, and create more green jobs as we
encourage the car manufacturers to develop more non-polluting vehicles."
ENDORSEMENTS http://www.edrive.org/endorsements
RUTH Y. GOLDWAY, Chairman, U.S. POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION: "This legislation
uses the unique characteristics of the Postal Service's existing transportation
network to rapidly increase the market for electric vehicles in the United
States. It provides well-deserved support for the Postal Service and a reasoned
plan for the simultaneous development of the electric grid and non-polluting
automobiles. I congratulate Congressman Serrano on his foresight and leadership
putting forward this program to create green jobs, an improved electric grid and
- most importantly - a revitalized mail delivery system."
JON WELLINGHOFF, Chairman of the FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION: "Done
right, electric vehicles provide a huge opportunity to add stability and
versatility to the grid and because of their crucial storage capacity they can
stimulate private investment in renewable electricity."
WILLIAM BURRUS, President of the AMERICAN POSTAL WORKERS UNION: "It will be good
for the Postal Service, good for the environment and good for the economy."
TERRY BOSTON, President and CEO of PJM, the largest Independent System Operator
in the country: "PJM is very supportive of congressional direction that helps to
advance vehicle-to-grid technology. ISOs are the non-profit entities that
operate the nation's electrical grid. Vehicle-to-grid is a credible technology
that has been successfully demonstrated within the PJM territory for more than
two years. Electric vehicle integration is both a challenge and an opportunity
that PJM is prepared to facilitate in the near-term. A highly visible fleet of
United States Postal Service vehicles would not only showcase clean and economic
transportation, but with smart charging would provide a positive contribution to
the electric grid."
FELIX KRAMER, Founder, THE CALIFORNIA CARS INITIATIVE: "e-Drive provide jobs
building new and converting existing postal vehicles. It can lower the postal
fleet's operating costs, improve the environment for postal workers and the
general public. These vehicles will help reduce our dependency on fossil fuels
and our greenhouse gases. The program will help build demand for batteries and
other components whose costs will decrease with high-volume production. And it
points to a future where most new vehicles and many of those already on the road
can plug in. Taken together, it's a way to move the broad trend to electrify
transportation into high gear."
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
The National Research Council recently issued a report predicting that plug-in
vehicles will remain uneconomical without subsidies for decades. This report
attracted much attention, with media concluding the growing interest could be
just one more example of overblown expectations. Its message has percolated
through Congress, undercutting the efforts of legislators and government
agencies seeking effective rapid ways to create clean jobs, revive domestic
industries, reduce dependence on foreign oil and cut greenhouse gases. Just one
problem: its assumptions are deeply flawed -- and as they say, "garbage
in/garbage out." How can anyone respond effectively? We've heard experts say
their comments were not taken into account. One way to set the record straight
is not to turn to "other studies with other viewpoints." The only thing a
forecaster can't dispute is reality. Now leading battery manufacturers are
beginning to come forward, reporting their real-world experience and business
assumptions. Our efforts, with partners, to respond to the report, are gaining
momentum! Details below.
(Shortly after it goes out on email, this posting will also be viewable at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html -- there you can add CalCars-News to
your RSS feed.)
See our two previous postings from earlier in January, "Rebuttals to Flawed
National NAS Report -- and Challenge to Battery Industry and "Plug-In Community
Needs to Respond to Outdated/Biased NAS Report" at
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html for the background to this
controversy. (For your convenience, you'll find excerpts from the second posting
on January 15, in which we invited battery manufacturers to respond, at the end
of this posting.)
THE QUESTIONS WE ASKED BATTERY MAKERS: On January 27, we had the opportunity to
ask top executives of many of the leading companies in the industry to state
their views publicly at the Electric Drive Transportation Associations' battery
session. Here's (roughly) what we asked:
Your presentations are reporting your real-world views on the battery
business--that's very different from forecasts. As you know the National
Research Council's report says that current prices for battery packs are greater
than $1,000/kw-hr; will take overt 10 years to get under $400/kw-hr. CalCars has
pointed out the impact of this report on the Energy Department's efforts to
prioritize transportation electrification. We've suggested to your companies,
publicly and privately, the need to respond. While we recognize the generally
approach of keeping valuable pricing information private, released only to
customers, will you be willing to draw the curtains apart a little? In
particular, today, or soon, are you willing to:
* consider responding individually or joining with other companies to respond to
the report?
* disclose your selling prices for battery packs, in dollars per usable
kilowatt-hour, two or three years ago when you begin to have volume production,
and ten years out?
FIRST TO RESPOND WAS RIC FULOP, CO-FOUNDER & MARKETINGVP OF A123 SYSTEMS: after
complimenting CalCars for our continued advocacy, he said "their data is off,"
confirming what anyone would know who's been watching A123's presentations in
the past year. It should get everyone's attention that he then confirmed that
the company's selling price for packs in 2012 will be lower than the report
projects a decade out. Three years from now, the company's price points will be
at the levels seen in 2030 by the NRC.
CHARLES GASSENHEIMER, CHAIRMAN & CEO OF ENER1, pointed out that the projections
didn't take into account strategies to take advantage of how the auto industry
defines battery vehicles' "end of life." At that point they can still deliver
80% of the power they originally supplied. Unless secondary uses are factored
in, the "full value" of batteries are not being counted.
SANKAR DAS GUPTA, CEO OF ELECTROVAYA, declined to engage with the specifics of
the projections, instead saying "there are a lot of crazy reports out there; we
can't pay attention to them all." Of course, that got a laugh -- though we take
the reports seriously because of their impact on policy making as well as public
understanding and expectations. He also predicted the time not too far away
when, as happened with cigarettes, the broad negative impacts of fossil
fueled-vehicles on, health, economics and the environment would speed our
transition to plug-in vehicles.
E
MICHAEL ANDREW OF JOHNSON CONTROLS - SAFT also commended CalCars, and reminded
the audience that it has previously said it sees pricing under $500/kwh by 2015,
and going forward reaching substantially lower levels in the following years.
AND BY THE WAY, NO LITHIUM SUPPLY ISSUES: In response to a later question,
A123's Ric Fulop cited the analysis by the Electrification Coalition (see our
recent posting and http://www.electrificationcoalition.org ). He said there's
enough lithium for two billion vehicles -- currently under one billion vehicles
are on the road.
Unfortunately we don't have a session transcript -- all the more reason for
journalists now to follow up, and for the National Research Council and the
Department of Energy to take this new information and determine how best to
integrate it into their analytical framework, conclusions and strategic
recommendations.
Stay tuned for more industry responses from battery manufacturers and their
automotive customers!
BACKGROUND: HERE'S SOME OF WHAT WE SAID IN OUR SECOND POSTING ON THIS SUBJECT ON
JAN. 15 (AND SENT TO THE COMPANIES PRESENTING AT THE EDTA CONFERENCE)
CLOSELY-HELD INFORMATION: It's hard to get battery pack pricing data. Each
battery manufacturer and automaker sees its costs as key to its competitiveness.
With some batteries selling at dramatically high retail prices, manufacturer
prefer to limit access to pricing forecasts for cells or packs in large volumes
to potential automotive customers. And since automotive batteries are not yet
mature products, price and performance continually evolve. With such competitive
pressures and rapid-fire changes, researchers and even governments are often
left with incomplete, inconsistent, out-of-date, or even erroneous price data.
ADVOCATES: The Electrification Coalition has taken the lead in pointing to flaws
in the NRC study: find links at to its press release and fact sheet at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news.php . The Washington Post published
EC CEO Robbie Diamond's response to its over-the-top editorial; his letter said
in part, "the NRC seems to ignore these economies of scale. The NRC has done
much important work over the years. In this case, however, its assumptions are
badly out of line with industry and government estimates, and its conclusions --
and unfortunately, those of the Post editorial that relied on them -- suffer as
well." Its reply at
http://www.electrificationcoalition.org/news-response-to-nrc.php says, "The NRC
study significantly overestimates current battery costs, placing them out of
line with published research by DOE National Laboratories, exhaustive research
by auto-industry analysts and current industry experience." It cites conclusions
from its own comprehensive "Electrification Roadmap" that, "Based on current and
expected industry costs, a PHEV-40 will be cost effective for consu
mers in 2015 -- without any government subsidy whatsoever."
WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE DOE, WHICH COMMISSIONED THE NRC STUDY? The Department of
Energy has much data internally and from its national labs that conflicts with
this report. But it has not reacted publicly even as the report's consequences
circulate mostly unchallenged in the media and in Congress. Outside parties can
help DOE validate its commitment to electrification and continue to sponsor
research grants, loan guarantees, ARPA-E, and the US-China EV Initiative. With
more data on the jobs and environmental impacts, DOE can catalyze volume
purchases of both new vehicles and conversions of much of its existing military,
civilian, and postal service fleet. These programs will in turn accelerate
technology development and volume production -- leading to further cost
reductions for batteries and other components.
WAITING IN THE WINGS: We're hoping that battery manufacturers -- the key primary
source -- will weigh in over the next few weeks, along with automakers other
than GM and Nissan. While citing their confidence that costs are declining, that
batteries are lasting longer than ever, and that carmakers can draw down more
than the 50% of the available energy used by GM's Volt, these companies have
volunteered little data, though some have said privately that they are willing
to respond if asked.
MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BATTERY COMPANIES: our fond hope zeroes in on the
very first session of the Electric Drive Transportation Association Conference
in Washington. It's aptly named, "Batteries for Electric Drive Vehicles:
Manufacturing Challenges and Opportunities"
http://www.electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/13921/pid/13921 . We urge the
CEOs, founders and top executives from leading suppliers Johnson Controls-Saft
Advanced Power Solutions A123 Systems, Ener1, Inc. Electrovaya, and Compact
Power each to take five minutes to compare the NRC's outlook to the mid-term
prospects for their batteries' performance and cost in mass production.If they
do, they'll help ensure the expansion of their entire industry. They'll earn the
thanks of all those working to accelerate the electrification of transportation.
And you'll hear about it from us!
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.orghttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
Offline 
Send Email
