At the New York Auto Show, GM's Vice Chairman Bob
Lutz reflects the emerging trend toward an end to
business as usual. Here are excerpts from a USA
Today story followed by a report and thoughtful
response to Lutz by John O'Dell (formely LA Times
auto editor, now at Edmunds), to which we've added our two cents.

Then reports by the Detroit Free Presss and
Consumer Reports on the unusual event that
reflects the new, more public style of many
automakers: "Volt Nation, organized by
GM-Volt.com with the support and participation of GM spokespeople.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-03-19-new-york-auto-show_N.htm
Move over, big trucks and SUVs: Here come the cars
By James R. Healey, Chris Woodyard and Sharon Silke Carty, USA TODAY
[excerpted from report on New York Auto Show]
Eco-friendly cars make strides

Along with cars that are fuel-stingy by virtue of
size, the auto show calendar that began in Los
Angeles last November also has, not surprisingly,
included plenty of environmentally friendly fuel-sippers.

"Our industry has relied on 95% oil to power our
vehicles. Obviously that is going to change,"
General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner says.

"If oil prices continue the way they're going, I
think we jump from hybrids to the next generation
of plug-in hybrids much faster than the domestic
automakers are planning or have thought about,"
Tynan [Kevin Tynan, an industry analyst at Argus Research] says.

A fast shift to plug-ins, still in development
but some able to average 70 to 120 miles per
gallon, sounds like a dream. But they'll cost
more than today's hybrids, which in turn cost more than all-gasoline vehicles.

And the shift might be too sudden for Detroit,
Tynan says. Domestic automakers are "running to
catch up to a market that's gone by them by the
time they get there," he says. "If they're
working to make midsize sedans more competitive
with the import (cars), the import makers are
already focusing on the next generation of hybrids. … They're already behind."


EDMUNDS.COM
Lutz: GM May Be 80 Percent Hybrid by 2020
http://blogs.edmunds.com/.eea5350/0
John O'Dell, Senior Editor Mar 19, 2008

Lord knows what he'll be saying next year, but
right now GM's Battling Bob Lutz is telling
anyone who'll listen that the company's cars are
going to cost more and mostly have some sort of
hybrid powertrain with a downsized gas engine in
order to meet the recently approved 35 miles per
gallon federal fuel efficiency average for 2015.

On Tuesday, talking to reporters in Washington,
D.C., GM's vice chairman for global product said
that hybrids would account for as much as a third
of the company's U.S. sales by 2015.

"We're going to have to sell a ton of hybrids
whether people want them or not," he told
Bloomberg News, adding that the new fuel economy
standards are "basically going to result in the
quasi-disappearance of V-8 engines."

On Wednesday, Lutz was ratcheting up the rhetoric at the New York Auto Show.

"By 2020 we figure that 80 percent of vehicles
will require some sort of hybridization," he said
after introducing three new Pontiac models. "We
cannot get to 35 miles per gallon with anything
resembling the current product portfolio with
anything resembling current technology."

Even with hybrids, he told the Detroit Free
Press, GM would still struggle. The company's
well-reviewed two-mode hybrid system, he said,
was only able to bring fuel economy in GM's
full-size sport-utility vehicles to 22 miles per gallon.

"How do you get those from 22 to 35? We don't
know," Lutz said. "We're open to ideas."

Here's one.

Build lots of the Chevy Volt extended range
electric vehicles you've been touting. Volume
production of the 50-60 mpg car with up to 40
miles of all-electric range will help bring down
the costs of the system. With gasoline and diesel
prices expected to remain in $4-$5 a gallon
territory, there will be wquite a few people interested in buying.

Economies of scale would make it possible to fit
the system into less expensive models that would
sell for more affordable prices than the $35,000
that's been the most recent estimate for the
Volt. And slipping it into upscale Escalades and
the like would improve profits.

Sales of several hundred thousand Volts and their
cousins each year would go a long way toward
bringing fleetwide average up to 35 miles per gallon.


felixkramer - Mar 20, 2008:

This is good news from Mr. Lutz. Within GM, there
are many who wonder how this company can
transition its entire universe of offerings to
more efficient cars. The answer, as John O'Dell
so ably suggests, is full or partial
electrification, thereby displacing gasoline with
cleaner, cheaper, domestically-generated
electricity. It's almost a sure bet that any one
of the three candidates who become President will
support such efforts in the early days of their
new administrations as a way to reduce fossil
fuel dependency -- because it's the end of business as usual.
The benefits increase the larger the car, which
is more obvious if you look at gallons saved per
hundred miles, instead of miles per gallon.
-- Felix Kramer, Founder, CalCars.org


DETROIT FREE PRESS REPORTS ON "VOLT NATION" EVENT
NEW YORK AUTO SHOW
Volt fans energized
GM execs mingle at gathering ignited by blogger
BY KATIE MERX • FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER • March 20, 2008
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080320/BUSINESS01/803200434/10\
14

NEW YORK -- Enthusiasts eager for General Motors
Corp. to bring its Chevrolet Volt plug-in
electric car to market got a major charge in New
York on Wednesday after hearing from the top
executives on the program, including a surprise
visit by Vice Chairman Bob Lutz.

More than 300 people from across the country
traveled to the New York Auto Show for an
opportunity to meet with and question some of the
top executives responsible for the fast-track
development of the car, which is to go into production by the end of 2010.

"We sense the energy from Volt Nation," Lutz
said, "and it propels us to get it to market as promised and on time."
[snip]
While the event, titled Volt Nation, took place
at the auto show's Chevrolet display, it was the
brainchild of Dr. Lyle Dennis, a 39-year-old New
York neurologist for whom the concept of the Volt
struck such a strong chord that he started a blog
in his spare time: www.gm-volt.com.

"I've always been interested in not burning oil
for all the reasons people talk about:
environment, financial, social, political,"
Dennis said. "I recognized right away that the
Volt was going to be very important for the
future of the country and the world. ... I wanted
to create a place for like-minded people to get
together and influence this car's development."

With the Volt Nation event, Dennis said earlier
in the day, the Web site, which is independent of
the automaker, has achieved a milestone.

"For the first time in history, a major U.S.
automaker will hold a conference not for the
press, not for the government ... but for the
consumer," said Dennis, who has become something
of a cult hero among those who frequent his Web site. .

The Web site has become so popular -- it averages
100,000 visitors per month -- that in November GM
agreed to participate in an in-person meeting with enthusiasts.

"My goal has been to connect people to GM,"
Dennis said. "At first, I would say, 'Give me
your questions and I'll be the guy that carries
them to the team.' After that, I realized:
Wouldn't it be cool if I could bring 250 people to meet the team?"

GM said yes and agreed to host 300 members of the so-called Volt Nation.

On Wednesday, several top executives, including
Lutz, vehicle line executive and chief engineer
Frank Weber, vehicle line director Tony Posawatz,
Chevrolet General Manager Ed Peper, and several
other top executives answered questions from a
room full of people who'd all like to be first to
own the electric vehicle when it comes out.
[snip]
Jon Lauckner, GM vice president of global program
management, called the automaker's interaction
with such a large group of potential consumers at
an auto show in advance of the production model unprecedented.

Posawatz said the one-on-one method of
communication is integral to the development of the Volt and GM's future.

"The very reason we are here is to get input and
learn from you," Posawatz told the crowd in
formal remarks before the team informally mingled
with the Volt Nation visitors.

Peper vowed to keep the lines of communication with the group open.

"We are absolutely thrilled to have so many
advocates out there for the Volt," said Peper.
"The word of mouth from the advocates we have for
this product is the No. 1 thing we can do to make it a success."


AT THE WEBSITE: http://www.gm-volt.com/ STORIES INCLUDE:

Volt Nation VIDEO: Bob Lutz Addresses the Crowd
Posted in: Volt Nation Video
This is the section of Volt Nation where GM vice
chairman Bob Lutz made some comments to the crowd about the car and the event.

Lutz: 94.5% Confident Chevy Volt in Production by November 2010
Soon after the Volt concept was first announced
in January 2007 GM vice chairman Bob Lutz told
the world he was 90% confident it would be built
by 2010. This has become my favorite question to
ask him each time I get the chance because it is
a good gauge of the programs development […]

Volt Nation Press Coverage: A Million Volts, GM expects to Lose Money at First
Another great outcome of the Volt Nation event is
that we are getting considerable press coverage.
This will help spread the word. It is interesting
to see how reporters describe our efforts.

Volt Nation a Success
We did it!
I just got back from the Volt Nation event at the
Jacob Javits Center and I believe it was a
smashing success. Over 200 people braved the
rains and traveled by car bus and plane from as
far away as Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota, and
California to take part in this historic event.

Volt Nation Has Arrived
This site has served as a public forum to analyze
and observe the production of the car that will
change the word. The first mass-produced
electrically-driven car built by a major
automaker with sufficient infrastructure to see
to it that a large proportion of the population will have access to it.

Lutz: Volt Battery Suppliers are in a Horse Race
and Expect 100,000 in sales by 2012
GM vice chairman Bob Lutz said GM initially
planned to choose between either CPI/LG Chem or
Conti/A123 to make the Volts pack by this April,
but that the plans have changed somewhat. He now
says GM wants to “run the two in parallel for a while longer”.
He calls the battle to be the Volt’s […]

CONSUMER REPORTS EDITOR'S BLOG REPORT
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2008/03/chevrolet-volt.html
March 20, 2008 -- Eric Evarts
Plugged in: Chevrolet Volt

General Motors' development of the Chevrolet Volt
has been conducted with unprecedented publicity
for the company. In fact, it has had so much
publicity that it has led some skeptics to
believe the program is a mere publicity stunt.
Given that the American industry needs more good
news for multiple reasons, this theory is
alluring. Either way, we keep learning more about
the GM program at almost every auto show and on many occasions in between.

At a "town hall" meeting with Volt enthusiasts in
New York, the company spelled out many more
details about its targets for the production car. Here's what we learned:

* It will definitely be a small, four-door
hatchback based on GM's global small-car
architecture, as the concept car is, and it will
be built on an existing assembly line.
* The car will likely be low-slung and
narrow, because aerodynamics will be important to
achieving the targeted fuel economy. Seats will
"fit like a tailored suit, not a bulky winter
coat," says the Volt's Chief Engineer Andrew Farah.
* The car's lithium-ion battery pack will
have 16 kilowatt/hours of capacity - the amount
necessary to travel 40 miles on an electric charge.
* The car will have an "intelligent"
on-board battery charger that can automatically
charge from any type of typical household
electric current - either 110-volt or 220-volt AC.
* The battery pack will consist of 250
individual cells, wired in series. If any one of
them fails, the whole pack will be dead. The pack will be liquid-cooled.
* Those batteries will use one of two
technologies: lithium-ion nano-phosphate
batteries from A123 systems in Massachusetts, or
lithium-ion magnesium batteries from LG Chem.
Neither technology was used in the lithium
batteries that exploded spontaneously in laptop
computers. Although lithium battery technology is
advancing, GM has frozen this technology for the
first-generation Volt to meet its November 2010 production target.
* GM is targeting an acceleration time from
0 to 60 mph of between 7 and 9 seconds, similar
to the range of most family sedans today.
* The Volt will initially be sold only in
certain states or cities, but will roll out
nationwide "within months" after that.
[snip]

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Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.org
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
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