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From: Felix Kramer <fkramer@...>
Subject: GM: 2010 Volt? Cadillac PHEV; Electricity/Electronics; Larry
Burns; New Blog
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X-eGroups-Approved-By: felixkramery <fkramer@...> via web; 09 Jan 2008 21:17:57 -0000
GM's statements and presentations in the past=20
week have made for some provocative and at times=20
confusing reading. Here's a round-up.
WILL VOLT BE READY IN 2010?
For months GM has been saying its goal was to=20
mass-produce the Chevy Volt in late 2010. It's=20
common sense to recognize that a date three years=20
away is merely a stake in the ground.
Last week, CEO Rick Wagoner set off what we see=20
as something of a tempest in a teapot when he=20
told journalists and bloggers, as Detroit News=20
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=3D/20080104/AUTO01/8010403=
61=20
reported,
But he cautioned that the timeline isn't a sure=20
thing as the automaker works to develop the=20
technology required to produce a battery-powered=20
car for the masses. "We continue to put massive=20
resources into production as soon as possible,"=20
Wagoner said, responding in writing during an=20
online chat session to kick off the automaker's=20
100th anniversary. "2010 would be great, but (we)=20
can't guarantee that at this time. We'll keep you=20
posted regularly on our progress."
Then others at GM scrambled to respond: Rob=20
Peterson, Manager of Chevy Volt/E-Flex=20
Communications, told a blogger, http://www.groovygreen.com/groove/?p=3D2405
Mr. Wagoner's response while phrased differently=20
than our previous responses, is consistent with=20
what we have said all along, "we continue to work=20
aggressively toward our 2010 internal target, but=20
that date is dependent on the availability of=20
battery technology that meets our safety,=20
performance and durability requirements."
AutoObserver's Michelle Krebs said "Chevy Volt=20
Developer: Don't Overanalyze CEO's Tempering=20
Remark"=20
http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/01/chevy-volt-deve.html=20
and included a statement that rumors about=20
battery problems are "laughably unfounded:"
Here at the Consumer Electronics Show for a=20
firsthand look at how the personal electronics=20
and automotive worlds are converging, Jon=20
Lauckner, vice president, global program=20
management and the ranking engineer overseeing=20
development of a production version of the Volt's=20
E-Flex powertrain architecture, says not to read=20
too much into last week's comment by Wagoner,=20
which some translated as a reality check on the=20
aggressive development timeline for the Volt --=20
and perhaps on Lutz's always-optimistic accounts=20
of the Volt's progress. Lauckner says doubters=20
and critics got "overfocused" on Wagoner's=20
remark, and that it's Wagoner's job to deal out=20
reality checks. "He's just being cautious,"=20
insists Lauckner of Wagoner's "no guarantee"=20
comment regarding the potential for the Volt reaching showrooms in 2010.
Lauckner also says Internet grist that GM has run=20
into problems with the prototype lithium-ion=20
batteries -- now being testing under limited=20
conditions -- are laughably unfounded. "I can't=20
tell you how far off the mark that rumor is,"=20
says Lauckner, adding that he hopes GM might=20
begin testing Volt prototypes outside the=20
confines of a proving-grounds environment=20
sometime in 2009. Moreover, Lauckner assures Auto=20
Observer the Volt will be engaging to drive -- a=20
personality trait in short supply with most current hybrid vehicles.
A Reuters report=20
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=3D7209896 confirmed these statemen=
ts,
For suppliers, GM's push to develop lithium-ion=20
batteries is expected to open the door to a new=20
market valued in billions of dollars over the=20
next few years. A subsidiary of Korea's LG Chem=20
Ltd., one of two company's vying for the Volt=20
battery contract, delivered the first battery=20
packs to GM researchers late last year. On a=20
separate competitive track, a division of German=20
auto parts supplier Continental AG is working to=20
integrate batteries for GM's Volt that would be=20
supplied by privately held Massachusetts-based=20
A123 Systems. The Continental-A123 group will=20
supply the first battery packs to GM for testing=20
later this month, Denise Gray, GM's director of=20
hybrid engineering told Reuters. GM's initial=20
tests of the battery packs supplied by LG Chem=20
subsidiary Compact Power had been positive in=20
tests designed to simulate real driving=20
conditions, Gray said. "They're performing within=20
the forecast parameter, and that's pretty good," she said.
And GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz clarified in a=20
Fastlane Blog posting=20
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/2008/01/happy_birthday.html
This program remains a top commitment to the=20
company, and we are holding tight to our 2010=20
deadline. And while 2007 was a big year for the=20
Volt, we expect 2008 to be even bigger. As each=20
day passes, our confidence and understanding of=20
the battery technology necessary for the Volt to=20
go into production grows. The results from our=20
first two months of testing -- some of which has=20
been fairly extreme -- have been very=20
encouraging. Soon these batteries will move from=20
the lab to engineering mule vehicles for dynamic=20
testing. There's no way we can predict how these=20
batteries will perform over 10 years based on=20
only two months of testing, but I can assure you,=20
there will be a point in time when we have the=20
full confidence that our solution will reach this=20
goal. When this happens, you'll be the first to know.
OUR VIEW: We see these hedges and clarifications=20
as indications that though GM has denied that=20
battery development and confidence in their=20
extended life will determine the late 2010=20
deadline, in fact, that is the key critical path.=20
And we continue to believe that if GM wanted to=20
get cars on the road sooner, it could do so with=20
a smaller lithium-ion pack and a battery warranty=20
or with nickel-metal hydride batteries with a=20
lower electric-only range. (For all GM's=20
insistence on 40 miles for the Volt, the Saturn=20
Vue PHEV in 2009 will have 10, and the Cadillac=20
Provoq concept car described below will have 20.)=20
All that said, none of these back-and-forth=20
exchanges will impede GM from showcasing the Volt=20
at events and in its ads for as long as it takes before it's produced.
ELECTRICITY AND ELECTRONICS
GM CEO Rick Wagoner appeared as a keynote speaker=20
at the huge Consumer Electronics Show in Las=20
Vegas. Catering to his audience, he and other GM=20
executives proceeded to mix up into one brew=20
"electricity" and "electronics" -- two related=20
but still distinct technologies. Substituting=20
cleaner, cheaper, domestic electricity for liquid=20
fuels is what plug-in cars are about. Of course,=20
PHEVs and EVs use advanced electronic controls.=20
But that's not the same thing as using=20
electronics to make any cars smarter, more=20
convenient and safer (which of course bring many=20
benefits, and can probably be best implemented in=20
electrically-powered vehicles). That said, we're=20
not unhappy about the technology mixture, since=20
GM's evangelizing will reinforce the arguments=20
for plug-in cars. (GM's motivations also have to=20
do with its probable technical advantage over=20
Toyota in some electronics technologies, notably=20
OnStar, which is a gateway to many services.)=20
Here are examples of how it played out:
MSNBC reported=20
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22560306 Wagoner=20
promoted the safety and convenience features that=20
are previewed by recent "driverless vehicles,"=20
saying, "Our intent is to bring you the future of=20
transportation." "We'll do this by working more=20
closely than ever with the consumer electronics=20
industry, using electronics to reinvent the automobile."
[Wagoner drove onstage in a Volt, and then=20
introduced the Provoq, a PHEV Cadillac E-Flex=20
concept car with a motor for front wheels and=20
rear hub wheel motors, a smaller battery=20
providing a 20-mile electric range and a 280-mile=20
hydrogen fuel cell range extender], saying, "We=20
really see electronics playing a huge role as we=20
endeavor to reduce our reliance on foreign oil,"=20
he said, citing GM's experience with the OnStar=20
navigation system, which it introduced 10 years=20
ago. OnStar "taught us that the electronics=20
industry has some lessons for the automotive industry," he said.
Previewing Wagoner's appearance, the Wall Street=20
Journal in "Could GM's Salvation Be Stuff of=20
Science Fiction?"=20
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119948828539568677.html=20
quoted others at GM making similar statements and=20
put them in the context of GM's competitive position with Toyota:
"We see vehicles going from being largely=20
mechanical to becoming more and more electronic,"=20
Larry Burns, chief technologist at GM and a=20
confidant of Mr. Wagoner's, said in an interview=20
last week. "We can think of no auto maker that is=20
better positioned to fully leverage this trend=20
than us." Pushing the technological envelope is a=20
key element of Mr. Wagoner's strategy for turning=20
GM around and positioning the company to compete=20
with Toyota Motor Corp. in the long term. He is=20
convinced being the first with game-changing=20
innovations is the solution to one of GM's=20
fundamental problems -- its battered image. Like=20
its crosstown rivals Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler=20
LLC, General Motors has struggled to make money=20
and regain market share in North America in part=20
because many consumers who were burned by GM's=20
quality problems -- largely now a thing of the=20
past -- still view the company as plodding and=20
slow, and flatly refuse to drive GM vehicles. Mr.=20
Wagoner declined to be interviewed for this=20
article but Mark LaNeve, GM's U.S. sales and=20
marketing chief, said last week that GM believes=20
it must challenge Toyota on technology leadership=20
in order to reverse the negative perception of GM=20
and to win back customers who have defected to=20
foreign makes. "Toyota right now clearly has a=20
leadership position on reputation, financial=20
results, many other measures," Mr. LaNeve said.=20
"That's the position we need to attain."
GM'S NEW FUTURETECH BLOG
GM has launched http://www.gmnext.com including a=20
blog at http://blog.gmnext.com/ to highlight=20
next-generation technologies and environment=20
discussion -- separate from its popular FastLane=20
blog http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/ founded by=20
Lutz. Greenbiz.com=20
http://www.greenbiz.com/news/news_third.cfm?NewsID=3D36476=20
quotes Rick Wagoner saying, "We're starting our=20
second century at a time of fundamental change in the
auto industry. We'll use GMnext to introduce=20
some of our ideas for addressing critical issues=20
concerning energy, the environment and=20
globalization. In the process, we also hope to=20
spark a broader, global discussion on these important topics."
LARRY BURNS INTERVIEW
Here's Earth2Tech's CES interview=20
http://earth2tech.com/2008/01/08/can-tech-help-cars-save-the-world-a-conver=
sation-with-dr-lawrence-d-burns-of-gm/=20
with a key executive at GM, Larry Burns, who=20
until recently was primarily involved with fuel=20
cells but now is largely focusing on PHEVs.=20
You'll find many controversial comments in this=20
interview, about GM's EV-1, the diverging fates=20
of oil and car companies and an effort to blame=20
consumers for Detroit's decades-long promotion of heavy muscle cars.
On the eve of General Motors Chairman and CEO=20
Rick Wagoner's keynote address at CES, we got a=20
chance to talk about the car company's plans for=20
green vehicle technology with Lawrence D. Burns,=20
VP of R&D for GM's research and development center.
Burns has worked with GM since 1969 and been in=20
his current role for a decade. On the CES show=20
floor Burns was flanked on one side by some of=20
the 100 road-certified fuel-cell cars in GM's=20
Project Driveway, and on the other by the=20
driverless Boss car that recently won the DARPA=20
challenge (and which GM is showing off at CES.)
GM is eager to show that U.S. automakers aren't=20
behind their overseas counterparts when it comes=20
to technology, though Burns admitted mistakes=20
when it comes to GM's early electric car, the=20
EV-1. "We had an EV-1 --still the most=20
energy-efficient car ever=85We should have gone on=20
from the EV-1 and we would have had a 10-year lead on the market," he said.
There was that misstep, and the following=20
competition -- GM is actively avoiding the term=20
"hybrid," and Burns admitted that "Toyota owns=20
the hybrid label." Instead, GM calls its cars=20
"electric vehicles," and considers the onboard=20
(gas-powered) powerplant a "range extender." The=20
company is coming back with a holistic strategy=20
for greener cars that relies heavily on that electric technology.
But not just in the fuel system. Burns was quick=20
to point out that much of the potential for fuel=20
efficiency comes from other areas. One of these=20
is safer driving. "The most significant fuel=20
economy is cars that don't crash," said Burns. He=20
guessed that a 4,000-pound car could weigh as=20
little as 1,500 pounds if it wasn't for safety=20
concerns, and still have the same carrying=20
capacity. So a car that can, through technology,=20
avoid accidents might weigh significantly less in the future.
Technology can also help by changing the way we=20
drive. For example, one of the main causes of=20
highway congestion is the effect that stop-and-go=20
driving has on traffic jams, which was analyzed=20
in a December of 2007 study by University of=20
Exeter mathematicians. Dr G=E1bor Orosz of the=20
University of Exeter told science site=20
physorg.com that "a slight braking from a driver=20
who has identified a problem early will allow the=20
traffic flow to remain smooth. Heavier braking,=20
usually caused by a driver reacting late to a=20
problem, can affect traffic flow for many miles."
Burns estimated that if only 20 percent of the=20
cars on a highway had adaptive cruise control,=20
that would smooth out this sort of congestion.=20
And less congestion means less idling and less=20
variance in driving speed. Indeed, according to=20
GM, an internal study of various drivers using=20
the same vehicle, GM employees varied their fuel=20
efficiency from 13 MPG to 22 MPG depending on=20
routes, speeds, and other factors. For example,=20
one of GM's V8 engines can use only half its=20
eight cylinders when driving at 65 MPH; but all eight kick in at 75 MPH.
Decoupling the driving system from the fuel=20
system is another big win. In a true hybrid car,=20
the engine runs at varied speeds because it is=20
directly moving the car. But GM is calling its=20
cars "electric vehicles," not hybrids,=20
considering the onboard (gas-powered) powerplant a "range extender."
When the gas engine is separate from the=20
electrical drivetrain, two good things happen.=20
First, the efficiency of the engine is far=20
greater (because it can be optimized to run at a=20
constant speed) while the car's power is=20
consistent throughout its speed range (because=20
there's no need for transmission.) And second,=20
it's easier to switch fuel sources.
"We need to move to other fuel sources," he said.=20
"The power grid has surplus power that equals 40%=20
of the miles driven in the US." In addition to=20
plug-in vehicles, there are also hydrogen fuel=20
cells and cellulosic ethanol, for which Burns has high hopes.
When it comes to automakers' relationships to oil=20
companies, Burns is fairly clear. "Do you think=20
it makes us happy to scratch out a minimal profit=20
while the oil companies get to make large=20
profits?" he laughed. "If there's a conspiracy=20
going on, we're getting the bad end of it."
When Wagoner gives his speech at CES today, he'll=20
highlight the technology that can make Detroit=20
green. We'll need all the efficiency we can get.=20
The US Department of Energy estimates that the=20
economy will grow at a rate of 3-4 percent a=20
year, with energy demand growing at 2 percent a=20
year. In 25 years' time, that compounds to 70% more energy needed.
Burns believes we can get there, but that no one=20
technology will solve the problem. Instead, it=20
will be a blend of the technologies GM is showing=20
at CES: Better power systems, the use of=20
alternate fuels, safer cars that weigh less, and=20
improving the way people drive. "Maybe 40% of=20
that can come from ethanol," he estimates.
Burns said that the biggest misconception people=20
have about car companies is "that [the companies]=20
don't want to make cars any more efficient, even=20
though we've increased efficiency 110% since the=20
1970's. But consumers chose to put that=20
efficiency into more power and more acceleration. "
Many of the technologies GM is showing can=20
improve the efficiency of cars dramatically. But=20
it's going to take a change in consumer mindsets=20
for that efficiency to take the form of reduced=20
emissions and fuel consumption, rather than=20
bigger, faster motors. "Now that oil is $100 a=20
barrel," concluded Burns, "consumers will have to=20
make new choices about that efficiency." Sure, along with the car companies=
.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.org
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
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felixkramery
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