Back in May, we were contacted by the organizing
committee for a conference to be held in Iceland
in September. "Driving Sustainability" would
focus on the goal that 25% of all Reykjavik city
vehicles run on renewable energy by 2014. We
agreed to help make the case for the
electrification of transportation. We didn't
realize how important this event might be.

The result (all English-language program,
presentations and photos at http://www.driving.is
) brought together almost 200 of the nation's top
public officials along with business and academic
leaders from Iceland and Northern Europe.
Reykjavik is best known to many as the site of
the historic Reagan-Gorbachev summit; some
participants suggested this conference may prove
to have been a similarly globally-significant
milestone in the evolution of energy/environmental strategies.


WHY ICELAND?

My first reaction had been: "I know about Iceland
-- clean energy, small population -- it's a
unique, special case." I would eventually realize
that Iceland is in fact THE MOST IMPORTANT case.
Iceland gets to be first to act in response to
what are only hypothetical, fervently hoped-for
conditions in most of the world:

"Imagine that your country has a guaranteed
supply of ultra-low-greenhouse gas energy. What
do you do? In general -- since we're talking
about plentiful but still not unlimited clean
energy -- how do you use it best? In particular, what do you drive?"

The conventional understanding of Iceland's
future is that it has chosen a hydrogen highway.
(A widely-distributed CNN story perpetuated that
assumption as recently as last month:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/09/18/driving.iceland/.)
In fact, that is distinctly NOT the case. Several
years ago, the Icelandic Hydrogen Economy
Project, which included Shell Oil's installation
of the world's first commercial hydrogen fueling
station and a few fuel cell buses, got the same
kind of attention we've seen when US Presidents
and California Governors pump million-dollar
prototypes. Meanwhile, Iceland's Althingi (the
world's oldest Parliament, founded in 930) has
yet to endorse a hydrogen program.

The decision to hold this conference was the
strongest sign yet that the votes aren't yet in.
As elsewhere, Icelandic influencers looking for
efficient solutions that can be implemented now,
with today's technology and infrastructure, and
that can become increasingly cost-effective, are
choosing a path involving electrons and
batteries, not hydrogen and fuel cells.

And it turns out that Iceland is ideally
positioned to plug in its cars. With 98% of its
population in towns and cities, most driving is
commuting -- but everyone wants to be able to go
to the glaciers, or circumnavigate the island's
1339km ring road. The country has more vehicles
per capita than the United States; it may even
have more SUVs per capita! A few more general
conditions help: Since Iceland is ranked by the
IMF as fifth in the world in per capita gross
domestic product and (like the increasingly green
Costa Rica) is one of the world's 24 nations
without an army, presumably it can afford to
trade in its cars. Ajnd with five daily
newspapers for 300,000 people, and the most books
and magazines published per capita in the world,
it is probably in the best position to make informed choices!

We expect to write further about our experiences
in Iceland, but here's a still-long summary of
results plus key background items:


WE HELPED GET ICELAND ITS FIRST PHEV
Our suggestion and offer to help further
awareness of plugging by providing a real-life
example of a plug-in hybrid was accepted. Here's
the caption for the photo at http://www.calcars.org/photos-groups.html
ICELAND'S FIRST PHEV: Amberjac Projects UK
converted the car belonging to University of
Akureyri graduate student Gudmundur Arnason (at
right), with the sponsorship of the National
Energy Authority, in time for it to be shown at
the first conference on Driving Sustainability
September, 2007. Felix Kramer (at left) spoke at
the event; also shown is conference organizer
Teitur Thorkelsson. Since the Icelandic language
generally doesn't adopt foreign words, it's a
"tengiltvinnbifreithin"-- roughly, a "plug-twin moving ride."
(This car is now in daily use around the island,
and is based in the colder northern part of Iceland.)


WE WERE WELL-RECEIVED AT THE CONFERENCE
Our 19-slide presentation was "The Case for PHEVs: The Best of Both Worlds"
http://www.driving.is/presentations/Felix_Kramer_CalCars_DS07.pdf
Here are the somewhat telegraphic bullet items customized for Iceland:
SLIDE 7: PUTTING RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO BEST USE
-Opportunity: for a world that hopes to have
clean abundant energy, Iceland can show the roadmap
-Transmission ->battery->motor, 70-80% efficient
-Hydrogen from electrolysis->fuel cell, 20-27%;
ICE, 7-9% (losses+CO2 if reformulate natural gas)
-Worldwide, there's never "extra" green
electricity to "waste" as long as coal can be displaced anywhere
-Even as range extender fuel, hydrogen will need
to surpass cellulosic ethanol on a well-to-wheel basis
-Note: ethanol used at power station is more
efficient than burned in an internal combustion engine
SLIDE 8: MEETING THE EUROPEAN UNION'S 120-130 CO2 TARGET
-Table shows that a Prius PHEV can be under 120
grams/kilometer of CO2 under multiple scenarios
for electricity sources -- compared to 216 gm/km
for gasoline, 194 for diesel and 127 for an unmodified Prius.
SLIDE 18: ICELAND'S ROLE IN CREATING SUSTAINABLE PHEVS
-Ideal test-bed: island/commuter driving
-"Soft" buy order (hundreds)
-Buyer/seller incentives
-Promote "level playing field" for multiple
energy solutions ("silver buckshot" not "silver bullet")
-Internationally, connect domestic geothermal
know-how, R&D on "enhanced geothermal" (EGS) and
steps to electrify transportation


EXPERTS BUTTRESSED THE CASE FOR ELECTRIFICATION
-PROF. GERBRAND CEDER, Prof. of Materials Science
and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology http://burgaz.mit.edu/, presented on
"Rechargable Lithium Batteries for Transportation"
http://www.driving.is/presentations/Ulf_Bossel_EFCF_DS07.pdf
Ceder is one of a core group at MIT including
Donald Sadoway and Yet-Ming Chiang that worked on
the technology from which A123 Systems developed.
Citing the urgency of action in the face of the
climate crisis, he pointed out that it can take
up to 18 years to commercialize new materials, so
we have a "one-shot deal." He said "we're so
close with batteries. With fuel cells, we're
aeons away." He saw high-power batteries always
staying ahead of supercapacitors; he described
PHEVs with 40-60 km range as "the game changer,"
and the "likely future of transportation."
-DR. ULF BOSSEL, European Fuel Cell Forum,
Switzerland http://www.efcf.com , presented "The Case for Electric Cars"
http://www.driving.is/presentations/Gerbrand_Ceder_MIT_DS07.pdf
He emphasized that the criteria for fuel cells
vs. plug-in cars should be based on "physics not
philosophy" and presented a broad engineering
perspective on "above-ground" (wind/solar, tidal)
vs. "below ground" (oil, coal, nuclear
extractive) fuels. (For more on this, see his
paper at http://www.efcf.com/reports/E23.pdf .)
He memorably said, "The laws of physics can't be
changed by research projects, votes of
parliament, presidential initiatives, capital
investments...the hydrogen economy has no past, present or future."


OTHER KEY SPEAKERS AT THE CONFERENCE
-OLAFUR RAGNAR GRIMSSON, Iceland's President,
talking about the climate crisis (he's close with
Al Gore), asked "how much time do we really have?
10 years? 25 years? It doesn't really matter:
it's so short." We had met him previously in
Silicon Valley; a hybrid driver, he asked that we
keep him informed about PHEVs.
-THORLEIFUR FINSSON, Head of Overseas Projects
and R&D and Reykjavik Energy, described how the
utility provides electricity to 58% of the
nation's population, and hot water to 67%; he
described the enormous CO2 benefit of providing
district heat to buildings; and he emphasized the
difficulty in getting clean vehicles that meet its criteria
-MADELEINE STROJE WILKENS, Ambassador of Sweden
to Iceland (one of the main co-sponsors of the
conference, and home of Saab and Volvo),
emphasized her country's goal to be fully oil-independent by 2020.
-ARNI MATHIESEN, Minister of Finance, said
Iceland aimed to be a world leader in developing
incentive programs for environmentally friendly vehicles.
-THORUNN SVEINBJARNARDOTTIR, Minister for the
Environment said, "We can provide carbon-free
electricity to the entire car-fleet of the
Reykjavík area, if it converted to plug-in hybrid
technology and reloaded at night ­- without
having to construct new power plants. Now, there
is a beautiful vision for an environment
minister." (We include her full speech below.)
-JAN BRENTEBRATEN, recently appointed as
Director, Alternative Fuel Vehicles Strategy,
Ford of Europe, emphasized biofuels and hybrids,
seeing fuel cells 15-20 years in the future and
expressing doubt about pure electric vehicles.
-AGUSTA LOFTSDOTTIR, Manager of Alternative Fuels
for the Icelandic National Energy Authority,
speaking "unofficially," offered open-ended
speculations about ways to make CO2 emissions the
main criteria for future vehicle choices,
including taxation and feebate concepts. She
emphasized the findings of the UK's Stern Review:
"the cost of failure is much higher than the cost of success."
-OTHER SPEAKERS presented the case for methanol,
ethanol and biodiesel -- lest we give the
impression that the conference was of one mind.
-TEITUR TORKELSSON, Conference Organizer, pointed
to the conference's role in bringing the first
PHEV and the first ethanol car to Iceland, and
called on the participants to continue making
history. He announced the likelihood of a
successor conference Sept 18-19, 2008.


WE LATER MET WITH KEY PLAYERS
At post-conference meetings with Reykjavik
Energy, the Energy Authority, and the Ministry of
the Environment, we presented a picture of the
campaign for plug-in cars in the US and globally,
offered to make introductions and opened lines of
communication for future projects.
We began work on in proposals to help Iceland
bring a global spotlight on the powerful combined
"package" of plug-in cars along with the
still-largely-overlooked sustainable geothermal
(near-surface hot water producing heat and
electricity, available in some parts of the
world) and "enhanced geothermal systems" (EGS --
pumping liquid into deep hot dry rocks, far more broadly feasible).
The week after we left, unfortunately at least
for CalCars, prospects for near-term joint
projects in which we might be involved shifted,
as an important merger of two Icelandic energy
companies turned out to be controversial and led
to realignments of political coalitions in the
city of Reykjavik (see http://icelandreview.com/
). We still hope to pursue some of these opportunities.
We also had the opportunity to visit geothermal
installations -- and spent two jaw-dropping days
touring the southwest part of the island.


MEDIA AND ICELAND ENERGY AUTHORITY
Though it's all in Icelandic, it's worth looking
at the writeup on the Prius PHEV, still on the
Icelandic National Energy Authority's home page
at http://www.orkusetur.is/ ; when it's gone from
there it will be at
http://www.orkusetur.is/Apps/WebObjects/Orkustofnun.woa/wa/dp?detail=22038&id=21\
74

The conference received broad coverage in
Icelandic media, including a full-page interview
with Felix Kramer in Vithskiptablathinu, the
daily Icelandic Financial News (PDF on request).


HOW CONFERENCE ORGANIZERS FIRST EXPLAINED ICELAND TO US:

"Iceland is in the unique position to have enough
renewable energy for all its transportation
needs. What we need is the technology to do this.
Your plug-in-hybrid solutions seem an ideal first
step and it could probably more easily be
implemented here in Iceland than anywhere else in
the world. We are therefore most interested in
learning more about where this technology stands
at the moment and what the future possibilities are.

Iceland is a global leader in the use of
renewable energy with 72% of the energy
consumption in the country from sustainable
sources like hydro and geothermal sources. The
remaining 28% of the energy use is mainly fossil
fuels for the vehicle fleet, fishing vessels and
aviation. Furthermore, the country has ample
untapped sources of sustainable energy. A new
government elected in spring 2007 states that it
will systematically work to increase the use of
environmentally friendly vehicles through economic incentives and other means.

This fact gives Iceland and its capital Reykjavik
a clear advantage to become a global role model
in transforming its vehicle fleet to one powered
by renewable energy. What is needed is viable
fuel and vehicle technology and the right policies to implement them.

The conference aims is to bring together
Icelandic and foreign companies, financiers,
scientists, government representatives and city
authorities to discuss policies, technology,
necessary actions and business opportunities in
this field. Who is doing what, who are the
leaders and why, and how do you change the
transportation system to be 100% sustainable.

This year we aim to answer the question if and
how 25 percent of all vehicles in Reykjavik can
be transformed to run on renewable energy by 2014."


MINISTER FOR ENVIRONMENT'S SPEECH TO CONFERENCE
http://www.umhverfisraduneyti.is/radherra/raedur-og-greinar/nr/1107
How Can We Minimize Emissions from Transport?
Can Iceland be a Leading Nation in Sustainable Energy for Transport?
Thorunn Sveinbjarnardottir, Minister for the Environment
Ladies and Gentlemen,

This month, we celebrate the twentieth
anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, an
international treaty that has successfully halted
emissions of ozone-damaging chemicals. The treaty
has little to do with transport, but it provides
a lesson on science, technology and society that
I think is relevant for us today. In short,
science told us in the late 20th Century that the
ozone layer was in peril, and we needed to stop
using certain chemicals in refrigerators,
spray-cans and other devices. Soon, a powerful
lobby started to argue against international
rules to solve the ozone problem, and warned that
such rules would bring us a grim future of
rotting food and smelly armpits. Now, 20 years
later, the Montreal Protocol has largely
succeeded in its mission, the ozone layer is on
the mend, and refrigerators are humming in
kitchens worldwide like never before. What
happened? Technology came to the rescue. New
ozone-friendly chemicals replaced the old ones,
brought from the laboratory to the market with a
push from the Montreal Protocol and the regulation and incentives it spurred.

This year, we are presented with a stark warning
by the IPCC, a UN science body, telling us that
global warming is real, that it is happening
right now and about to get much worse unless we
halt the emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases. These emissions are tied to almost all
human activity: agriculture, energy, industry and
­ not least ­ transport, which is in many
countries the sector where emissions are rising
fastest. So, can technology once again ride to
the rescue? I certainly hope so, and one is bound
to feel a certain kind of optimism looking at the
agenda of this conference. Speakers will make the
case for hydrogen vehicles, methanol, methane and
electric cars. My own hybrid Toyota is apparently
yesterday's news, as the future will bring me a
car I can plug in when I come home, along with my mobile phone.

It is clear that the UN Climate Convention and
efforts by governments and business has caused a
spur in research and development of
climate-friendly technology. Governments should
not pick winners, but stimulate R&D and create
incentives for dissemination of existing
low-carbon technologies. The Icelandic government
has supported research in hydrogen and other
fields, but we need to increase our efforts in
this regard, and we need to make emissions
control a central objective in our policy of taxing vehicles and fuels.

One hopes that the cars presented here at this
conference will help us solve the climate
problem. But there is another way to tackle
emissions in transport, which is to look at our
lifestyle. There are now more passenger cars per
capita in Iceland than in the United States. It
is difficult, if possible at all, to find a city
in Europe where more people commute by car than
in Reykjavík. Almost half of the surface area of
Reykjavík is used for transport infrastructure.
And traffic jams at rush hour are a popular
complaint these days in this small northern metropolis.

We can change this. We can walk and bicycle for
shorter trips, to no detriment to our health:
Indeed, there are few better things we can do to
improve our health than to exercise more. We can
use public transport more often for commuting. We
might even think of designing urban space with
people, not steel and chrome, as our core concern.

We should not worship the passenger car, but
there is no need to demonize it. It can bring us
quickly and efficiently to the places we need or
want to be. It is a shelter from the storm in
Icelandic winters and a most helpful servant.
Icelanders tend to like their cars and the
convenience they bring. But there is such a thing
as too much of a good thing. The Earth can not
deal with hundreds of millions of new
CO2-belching cars in the next decades, but it
does desperately need the new exciting technology
that is the subject of this conference.

Can Iceland be a leading nation in sustainable
energy for transport? Certainly. We already have
hydrogen and methane cars on the streets and fuel
stations to refill them. We have climate-friendly
energy and we have scientists and entrepreneurs
who are adamant about advancing clean
cutting-edge technology. We can provide
carbon-free electricity to the entire car-fleet
of the Reykjavík area, if it converted to plug-in
hybrid technology and reloaded at night ­ without
having to construct new power plants. Now, there
is a beautiful vision for an environment minister.

But Icelanders also have one of the biggest car
fleet per capita in the world. We tend to like
big cars, even for small chores. We have
increased emissions from road transport by some
30% since 1990. We need to make a turn. We need
cooperation between government, business and the
general public if we are to move Iceland along
the road to truly sustainable transport.

For such cooperation we need ideas and a meeting
of minds. The organizers of this conference has
done an admirable job of bringing green minds and
green cars to Iceland. Events such as this are
important ­ they help bring a cleaner future into
focus in the eyes of decision-makers, the media
and the general public. Let us hope that the
gas-guzzler is going the way of the ozone-killing
spray can. But let us not just hope. Let us work
together to put Iceland in the forefront in the
race towards climate-friendly transport.


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Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.org
http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html
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