We encourage you to forward this email broadly to anyone you think
has heard about plug-in hybrids or is reading today's broad coverage
of the news from GM.
Last night we sent out an earlier version of this "bottom-line" reaction:
"We commend GM for being the first out of the starting gate in the
Great Plug-In Car Race of 2007. GM's announcements are the biggest
victories yet for CalCars.org and other PHEV advocates. Now our
campaign is in third gear. We'll work with the auto industry,
government, fleet buyers and advocates to get to the day -- soon, not
in a decade -- when customers can buy PHEVs as easily as any other car."
-- Felix Kramer, Founder of CalCars.org.
The California Cars Initiative <http://www.calcars.org> is a Palo
Alto-based nonprofit startup. We're a group of entrepreneurs,
engineers, environmentalists and consumers, since 2002 promoting
plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). CalCars.org is itself a hybrid, focusing
both on public policy and technology development. CalCars was first
to convert a hybrid to a 100+MPG plug-in hybrid in 004.
We'll have more to say over time; here are 16 Questions and Answers,
which we'll soon turn into a web page at
http://www.calcars.org/gm-phevs-faq.html> (no blog for now). See our
FAQ <http://www.calcars.org/faq.html> and News Archive
<http://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html> for more. In some cases,
we refer to comments made by GM representatives at its January 5,
2007 telephone media briefing. (The following can be used by media as
quotes from Felix Kramer, CalCars.org founder.)
16 Points about GM's Long-Awaited Breakthrough PHEVs
WHAT'S THE BIG NEWS? General Motors is working on two PHEVs headed
for production: the Saturn Vue Green Line PHEV and the E-Flex Chevy
Volt "no compromise" concept car. And it has signed development
contracts for two battery packages, from Johnson Control/SAFT and
Cobasys/A123Systems, to test in the Vue this year.
IS THE VOLT A PLUG-IN HYBRID? Of course -- though it is confusing.
Standard hybrids are called hybrid-electric vehicles because they
have to propulsions SYSTEMS: gasoline engines and electric motors.
Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles have two fuel SOURCES: electricity
is primary, something else (gasoline, ethanol, biodiesel, hydrogen)
is the "range extender." (We don't like the name or acronym all that
much, but we seem to be stuck with them.)
WHAT'S A SERIAL HYBRID? In a Chevy Volt "serial" plug-in hybrid like
the Chevy Volt, only the electric motor powers the wheels. A small,
efficient, internal combustion engine runs at constant speed as
needed to charge the battery for long trips. In the Saturn Vue
"parallel" hybrid, both the electric motor and the internal
combustion engine power the wheels. Engineers see serial systems as
simpler, but say parallel PHEVs create the most optimal combination
of weight and power in components, to get the best MPG equivalent.
Both serial and parallel approaches can make great PHEVs!
WHY DID GM EVOLVE? We think it's a response to the growing interest
and demand for plug-in hybrids. We credit the recognition by
far-sighted people at the company that no new technology is needed to
fuel cars with cheaper, cleaner, domestic electricity -- and thereby
invigorate GM by getting customers excited about advanced cars that
address energy independence and global warming.
WHAT ABOUT GM'S CRITICS? This company has a controversial past. It
created and then crushed the EV1, a triumph of engineering. And it's
still part of an auto industry lawsuit against the State of
California. But looking to the future, we can only welcome the
world's top car-maker's embrace of electrification to move from the
petroleum wasteland into the promising territory of renewable energy.
Some initial analyst, environmentalist and media reports were
skeptical. We see a program with a dedicated staff of hundreds of
people inspired to stake their careers on cars that fulfill their
dreams for a sustainable world. Rick Wagoner, Bob Lutz, Beth Lowery
and the entire GM team merit our congratulations and respect -- and our help.
WHERE DID GM FALL SHORT? No timetable to commercialization and mass
production. Here's where we differ most with GM, which says batteries
for the Volt in particular might not be available until 2010-2012. We
aim to encourage GM to hasten PHEVs' entry into the marketplace. The
perfect should not be the enemy of the good. Of course, we don't want
shortcuts on safety and operational reliability. But we do want
car-makers to build very good PHEVs now -- then make them better. We
believe GM doesn't fully recognize how many early adopters and fleets
will pay more for early PHEVs. We urge GM to ask California and
federal agencies to modify or eliminate "life of car" battery
warranty requirements for large demonstration fleets, while
maintaining all other emissions standards. Letting market forces
decide who will pay for cars with "batteries-in-progress" will speed
commercialization. Later, the requirements can be reinstated for consumers.
WHAT ABOUT THOSE BATTERIES? The auto industry is moving to
lithium-ion batteries -- like those in cameras and laptops. With the
prospect of car-makers' volume purchases, manufacturers will now
build larger, better, more affordable batteries. Safety issues can be
addressed by chemistry, electronics and good mechanical design.
Battery shelf and cycle life and costs are improving steadily. At its
January 5 news briefing, GM engineers said on a technical level they
were "confident and comfortable" with Li-Ion batteries, and that they
had identified batteries they consider acceptable at the cell level
-- but that more electronics integration work was necessary to build
them into packs. We know pricing issues can be addressed for
demonstration fleets,. We want car-makers to be incremental and begin
building "good enough" PHEVs.
WHAT ABOUT INTERMEDIATE TIMETABLES? We'd like to see PHEVs built by
car-makers joining the after-market conversion vehicles already on
the roads, pronto. In September, GM announced Project Driveway, to
place 100 fuel-cell SUVs in California, New York and Washington. Our
goal is to create receptive conditions so that GM can gear up to
deliver a similar Project Plug-In with 1,000 PHEVs. CalCars and our
partners will cooperate by mobilizing the key players -- government
agencies, regulators, legislators, utilities, corporate fleet buyers
and early adopters -- to do their part.
WHY ARE DEMONSTRATION FLEETS SO CRITICAL? They will help refine PHEVs
and show America and the world what's possible now. They will
position the industry for the kind of accelerated deployment that
could at any moment become necessary if we encounter supply chain
disruptions and skyrocketing oil prices or a world waking up to the
dangers of greenhouse gases. (Remember what happened after Pearl
Harbor -- after saying it was impossible, the industry switched from
cars and trucks to planes and tanks in one year.) And they'll ensure
high volume sales later. Here's why: while tens of thousands of early
adopters and fleet buyers will want first- and second-generation
PHEVs, millions of retail PHEV customers will wait for the third or
fourth versions. Here are two examples of such customer behavior: We
conceive of GM's 1997 EV1 as version 1.0 of a great electric
roadster. This car with lead-acid batteries was soon followed by
version 2.0, with greater range nickel-metal batteries, then in 2003
by AC Propulsion's TZero, a 0-60 screamer that was version 3.0. And
in 2006 Tesla Motors came out what we see as EV1 version 4.0, selling
its first hundred cars in three weeks. (Bob Lutz says the Roadster
inspired him to sponsor the Volt.) Similarly, Toyota's Prius version
1.0 was introduced only in Japan in 1997. Version 2.0 was received
with enthusiasm worldwide in 2001. But it was only version 3.0 in
2004 that Prius became a popular sensation and was named Motor Trend
Car of the Year. The planet needs the evolution/adoption rate for
PHEVs to be fast. Since PHEVs are so obviously in the public
interest, nationally and internationally, it's urgent to get started!
IS THE PLUG-IN HYBRID CAMPAIGN OVER? Definitely not.
Commercialization won't happen automatically. There's no bigger plus
than to have car-makers agreeing that PHEVs are a good idea. But if
we declare victory and walk away, we might not see PHEV prototypes
until 2010-2012 and significant numbers of PHEVs on the road for a
decade. That's why we need to keep up the pressure and the
incentives. That's why to get PHEVs to dealers nationwide, the ball
is in our court as well as GM's.
WHAT DO WE NEED NATIONALLY? A Presidential State of the Union address
with an Executive Order. Energy Department actions to fund R&D and
deployment, offer production and buyer incentives, and commit to
purchases of tens of thousands of vehicles for civilian and military
use. Congressional passage of legislation enabling and funding those
programs. More cities, counties, states and companies joining Plug-In
Partners' soft-fleet orders program.
WHERE DOES CALIFORNIA FIT IN? Many states -- New York, Texas and
Minnesota in particular -- have taken strong steps in support of
PHEVs. But California may be best positioned to lead the
commercialization of PHEVs. This is appropriate, since many key
automotive innovations, from catalytic converters to regional Air
Quality Management Districts, originated in California. And the
modern PHEV was invented by Prof. Andy Frank at the University of
California at Davis. (See the just-published first book on PHEVs,
"Plug-In Hybrids: The Cars That Will Recharge America," by Sherry
Boschert <http://www.sherryboschert.com>.)
Many constituencies can pitch in to make California plug in. (See all
the entities listed at CalCars Partners
<http://www.calcars.org/partners.html>.)
* California has advanced automotive technology design and production
clusters. Its universities have led in developing and studying PHEVs.
Its high-tech industries and environmental entrepreneurs have
enthusiastically embraced PHEVs. The state's utilities and the
Electric Power Research Institute have been central to efforts to
develop and promote PHEVs. (Because producing and selling power have
been "de-coupled," California utilities don't benefit by selling more
electricity. They gain by getting customers to conserve and use
electricity more efficiently.)
* California's owners and advocates for electric cars have helped
spark global interest in all types of plug-in vehicles. The growing
number of owners and drivers of PHEVs from after-market converters
will soon start public discussions about their real-world experiences
and what they want.
* California's many supporters of a Hydrogen Highway can
enthusiastically back this car as a critical step toward their goals,
since GM plans to provide a version that uses a fuel cell as the
range extender for a FC-PHEV.
* California is the world leader in defining government roles in
automotive development. The Pavley Bill of 2003, AB 1493, limiting
cars' greenhouse gas emissions, and AB32, the Global Warming
Solutions Act of 2006, charge the state's Air Resources Board with
developing policies and regulations. (Ten other states and Canada
follow ARB's standards.) The ARB, the California Energy Commission,
the Legislature, the agencies and Governor's office have all said
they can't wait to work closely with car-makers to commercialize
PHEVs. Support is equally strong at local and county levels.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? Beth Lowery, VP for Energy and Environment, said
on January 5th that GM is open to considering all options for
partnerships and programs. PHEV advocates will find ways to smooth
the path forward and provide GM and other automakers' needs with
incentives to create the best business case for PHEVs. To deploy
demonstration fleets and speed commercialization, a range of players
can become "Godfathers" to GM and other car companies -- making
offers so good they can't refuse.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY? The world's #1 car-maker is
placing a big bet on electrification of transportation as a strategy
for growth and prosperity. In doing so, it is first out of the gate
in the great plug-in car race of 2007. More auto-makers are
responding to the growing interest in PHEVs. (See
<http://www.calcars.org/carmakers.html> for our tracking of their
comments.) DaimlerChrysler has a Mercedes Sprinter prototype
development program for large 15-passenger commercial vans. GM and
Toyota have both said they want to be first on PHEVs. Ford and Nissan
are exploring PHEVs. As other auto-makers jump in, we relish the
prospect of a growing competition to build the best PHEVs using
diverse technical approaches, components and features.
HOW QUICKLY COULD PHEVS PENETRATE THE WORLD'S AUTO FLEET?
International Investment managers Alliance Bernstein projects that by
2030, hybrids and PHEVs could be 85% of new car sales. (For a copy,
see link on the CalCars.org home page.) Those aggressive numbers
assume an end to business as usual because of higher fuel prices,
carbon caps or taxes, employee benefits, government incentives. They
validate the idea that PHEVs will become the dominant platform for
MOST automobiles, building on PHEVs' simple concept: power local
travel electrically from an ever-greener grid, and evolve the range
extender fuel to increasingly renewable sources.
WHAT CAN SUPPORTERS, ADVOCATES, FANS DO? Learn more at CalCars
News-Archive <htttp://www.calcars.org/news-archive.html> and
Audio-Video Clips <http://www.calcars.org/audio-video.html>).
Distribute handouts and articles from Downloads and Flyers <
http://www.calcars.org/downloads.html>. Sign up with Plug-In Partners
<http://www.pluginpartners.org>. Give your time and money to
CalCars.org <http://www.calcars.org/sponsor.html> and Plug In America
<http://www.pluginamerica.org>. Contact your Senators and
Representatives and urge them to co-sponsor the bi-partisan,
bi-cameral Vehicle and Fuel Choices for American Security Act
developed by SetAmericaFree <http://www.setamericafree.org>. Send us
endorsements from your elected officials, communities and
organizations (see <http://www.calcars.org/endorsements.html>. Make
sure your print, broadcast and online media are paying attention. And
let your dealer know you want your next car to plug in!