'This extended coverage in a national news weekly gives an excellent
up-to-the-minute description of the status of PHEVs. See the URL or
print version (should be on news-stands today) for an entertaining
photo (CAPTION: Felix Kramer's Prius plugs into a 120-volt household outlet.)

One clarification: I had not intended to be quoted describing the NYS
program as a stunt! It's a very serious effort that has already
helped stimulate the market. But I was talking about conversions as a
strategy to increase the likelihood that car-makers will build PHEVs.

A Plug For Hybrids
100-mpg prototypes are on the road. Needed: safe, cheap batteries
By Marianne Lavelle
<http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/061001/9hybrid.htm>
Posted Sunday, October 1, 2006
This story appears in the October 9, 2006 print edition of U.S. News
& World Report.

When Andy Frank first tried to demonstrate how electricity could help
a car get 100 miles per gallon of gasoline, he resorted to the only
big power source he could find, the lead acid battery from a
Caterpillar tractor. But the farm vehicle-to-auto transplant didn't
work, and the young professor concluded the battery technology of
1972 wasn't up to the job. Still, he didn't give up. "This is
fundamental engineering," he says. "If you do the physics and
calculations, and have the knowledge of how cars work, you can show
on paper it's possible."

Thirty-four years later, Frank's dream, known by its cadre of
advocates as the "plug-in hybrid electric vehicle," is tantalizingly
close to reality. DaimlerChrysler has research vehicles on the road,
Toyota this summer became the first car company to announce it was
working on a commercial PHEV, and the other automakers-while not
making commitments-are no longer scoffing. Big money also is taking
notice, with legendary venture capitalist John Doerr calling plug-ins
"a really big deal" and the philanthropic arm of Google apparently
poised to back research.

Like the Toyota Prius, the new hybrids would draw power from either
the electric battery or the gasoline engine. But they would have
bigger, more powerful batteries-and a cord that would plug into a
normal 120-volt household outlet. They would be able to travel long
distances, perhaps 20 to 40 miles, using little or no gasoline. Since
the vast majority of Americans drive fewer than 40 miles per day, the
PHEV could render the daily commute gas free. And the driver would
never be stranded without a charge. PHEVs are "the most immediate and
practical alternative to petroleum and represent a bridge technology
to a sustainable transportation future," says Kateri Callahan,
president of the Alliance to Save Energy, a coalition of
environmental and business groups.

That's not to say there aren't major stumbling blocks, namely the
batteries. Automakers say no one yet has made an energy storage
device strong, safe, and cheap enough to install in a mass-market
auto. However, PHEV advocates argue that exactly what is needed to
drive electric battery technology forward is a bold decision to put
such vehicles into demonstration fleets. "The research essentially
has been done," says Frank, who leads the hybrid electric vehicle
group at the University of California-Davis-a project he calls Team
Fate, after the driven professor in the 1965 film The Great Race.
"What we need is the development-putting it into high-volume production."

To prove demand exists, a group called Plug-in Partners, led by the
city of Austin and its power company, Austin Energy, has organized
local governments and businesses to pledge to buy hundreds of PHEV
vehicles-even at a bloated early-adopter price-if carmakers would
only build them.

Then there are the activist tinkerers, who strip the batteries of
their current hybrids and replace them with perfectly viable-albeit
expensive-big plug-in batteries. EVWorld.com recently told readers
the switch can be done "if you have significant skills in
electromechanical assembly and a cavalier attitude toward your Prius
warranty." At least a dozen home-baked plug-ins journey U.S. roads
today, achieving the golden century mark in gas mileage, their owners
say. With the help of Monrovia, Calif., research firm EnergyCS, Felix
Kramer, founder of the California Cars Initiative, took to the road
with his prototype in April. On one recent stretch, he drove 949.75
miles on 9.36 gallons of gasoline. That's 101.5 miles per gallon.
(New York Gov. George Pataki is so enthusiastic he has allocated $10
million to convert 600 Priuses already in the state fleet to
plug-ins.) "It's just a stunt," Kramer concedes. "For us, conversions
are entirely a strategy to increase interest, to encourage carmakers
to do what they do best with the best technology."

Perhaps understandably, electric power companies have emerged as
strong plug-in promoters, with Pacific Gas & Electric even including
fliers in September bills asking its 5.1 million customers to
petition automakers to speed development. Utilities obviously would
sell more electricity if people plugged in to drive. But it would
also allow them to make use of their enormous stores of off-peak
capacity. Industry studies say if millions of plug-ins took to the
road tomorrow, no new power plants would be needed. A plug-in would
draw energy equivalent to that of an electric space heater. While the
consumer would pay more for electricity, it would be more than offset
by the savings for gasoline, even if pump prices dropped far below
those of today. At today's prices, a driver would pay 94 cents to the
power company to drive 30 miles on plug-in power. To drive the same
distance in the average U.S. car would cost $2.58 at the pump. But
automakers are not convinced that 64 percent savings in fuel costs
will offset the initial cost of the battery. Kramer's conversion cost
$12,000, in addition to the $21,000 cost of the original Prius. He
maintains that the battery cost could be driven down to $3,000 if it
were mass produced. But in recent congressional testimony, Honda's
environmental analysis manager, John German, estimated that the fuel
savings over the life of the vehicle would be only $3,000. "There is
no business case unless fuel prices rise to substantially more than
$3 per gallon, fuel shortages occur, plug-in hybrids are heavily
subsidized, or there is a breakthrough in energy storage," he said.

Burning issue. Big batteries add weight, decreasing performance. Most
experts, both inside and outside the auto industry, agree that
carmakers will turn away from the nickel metal hydride batteries now
in all hybrids to lighter, more powerful lithium ion batteries-the
kind that have become ubiquitous in consumer products like
cellphones, iPods, and laptops. Of course, lithium ion batteries made
news in recent weeks when the malfunctioning units in some laptops
erupted into flames, resulting in the largest consumer electronic
recall in history. PHEV advocates, noting that cars already tote an
explosive substance-gasoline-insist safety issues can be addressed.
Kramer's converted hybrid uses lithium ion batteries with a phosphate
additive to quell overheating.

But Toyota executive engineer David Hermance says the bar is high for
automakers. "I guarantee the battery's not ready," he says. "We won't
bring a product to market unless it meets our internal durability and
reliability tests." That's why Toyota has given no timeline on
introduction of a plug-in hybrid. "It's generally regarded as
inevitable that we will get a better battery," he says. "Nobody knows
just when."

Plug-in activists are looking outside the auto industry for help.
Especially encouraging was the move by Silicon Valley venture capital
firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers to double its commitment to
green technology investments to $200 million over the next two years.
And the plug-in world is abuzz with rumors that Google.org, the
for-profit philanthropic arm of Google, is poised to help, though the
company will say little.

Despite the challenges of bringing plug-ins to market, energy experts
say the concept has advantages over almost any other alternative now
contemplated, including using hydrogen as a fuel. Andy Frank,
meanwhile, continues to plug away."The difficulty is convincing the
automotive industry to transition from where we are today, with the
products in use today, to this new utopia, without having to
introduce additional infrastructure," he says. "In our case, the
infrastructure is the plug in the wall and the gas station."


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Felix Kramer fkramer@...
Founder California Cars Initiative
http://www.calcars.org
http://www.calcars.org/news-index.html
http://www.hybridcars.com/blogs/power
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