On 1/28/06, Cpt.Denny <petrinic@...> wrote:

> "Yet, EIA data show that worldwide reserves of oil are currently estimated
> at 1.2 trillion barrels (estimating Saudi reserves at 260 billion barrels),
> more than ever reported in human history, reflecting an unbroken
> progression
> of increasing numbers over the last quarter century of EIA estimates.
> ExxonMobil has issued statements recently suggesting that oil reserves
> worldwide might reach as high as 6 to 8 trillion barrels."
>
> See: http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47081
>
> See:
> http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47159

Two comments.

Reserves do not directly correlate to the rate of oil production. The
us has perhaps
10 billion barrels or more left, but nothing we've been able to do has
changed the
declining production in the lower 48 since 1970. Given that we have the best
technology in oil exploration and production in the whole world, this should
tell you something about the limits of geology.

The EIA is often guilty of publicising its more optimistic predictions, probably
due to political pressures. Its predictions of reserves at the 95% probability
level are usually good, but those estimates are not the ones that get published.

OK, a 3rd observation. Although they say there is an "unbroken progression
of increasing numbers over the last quarter century of EIA estimates", there
has been an unbroken progression in the decline of oil that is being *found*
in the last 20-25 years. Its a simple fact, one that nobody really
wants to hear.
If you look at a graph of this, its pretty plain to see.
http://www.energybulletin.net/image/primer/discovery_gap.gif
To me, this is the crux of it. It doesn't matter where the oil comes from,
how its created, etc, etc, what matters is finding it and producing it.

dave